As I have said.....consumers are spending money like crazy. Retail sales rise 0.5% in March amid soaring inflation https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-0-5-march-124345095.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "NEW YORK (AP) — Retail sales rose modestly in March, but higher prices for food, gasoline and other basics took a big share of consumers' wallets. Retail sales increased 0.5% after registering a revised 0.8% increase from January to February. Spending has been fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts. January’s increase of 4.9% was the biggest jump in spending since March 2021, when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400. Excluding an 8.9% increase at gas stations, overall retail sales were actually down 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. “They are spending selectively this month and the gasoline price spike from the Russian-Ukraine war was where most of the expenditures were made," said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at research firm FWDBONDS LLC. Business at general merchandise stores were up 5.4%, while clothing stores sales rose 2.6%. Online sales were surprisingly down 6.4%. Restaurant sales rose 1%. The retail report covers only about a third of overall consumer spending and doesn’t include services such as haircuts, hotel stays and plane tickets, areas that have been rebounding. Retailers are closely monitoring Russia's war with Ukraine and how it could weigh on shoppers' confidence but also worsen inflation. The conflict has already limited supplies of wheat, vegetable oils, and electronic components like chips. It's pushed up fertilizer prices that were already high, made scarce supplies even harder to find and squeezed farmers, especially those in the developing world. In addition to the Russian invasion, rising COVID-19 cases and renewed restrictions in China could worsen supply chain issues. The Labor Department said Tuesday that its consumer price index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier, the sharpest year-over-year increase since 1981. Prices have been pushed up by bottlenecked supply chains, robust consumer demand and disruptions to global food and energy markets worsened by the war. From February to March, inflation rose 1.2%, the biggest month-to-month jump since 2005. Gasoline prices drove more than half that increase. The March inflation numbers were the first to fully capture the surge in gasoline prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Moscow’s attacks have triggered far-reaching Western sanctions against the Russian economy. The acceleration of inflation is happening in otherwise strong economy. In March, employers adding a robust 431,000 jobs — the 11th straight month in which they’ve added at least 400,000. For 2021, they added 6.7 million jobs, the most in any year on record. In addition, job openings are near record highs, layoffs are at their lowest point since 1968 and the unemployment rate is just above a half-century low. Retailers have been forced to keep raising wages to stay competitive, but now they worry any progress that they made is being undone because higher prices are eating into workers’ earning power. To protect themselves against any consumer spending downturn, retailers are cutting back on expenses, while taking a measured approach to ordering merchandise." MY COMMENT Inflation is not having much of an impact on consumer behavior. With wages skyrocketing to record highs, no need to pay student loans, etc, etc, the economy is booming on the consumer side of things. People are glad to be free of the pandemic restrictions and they are spending money. This is EXACTLY why I think earnings of the BIG CAP companies....especially those that are consumer based.....are going to be very nice. The focus of the short term markets on the various HIGH DRAMA issues that we see every day is irrelevant.
And.....speaking of economic date that no one will care about. Jobless claims: Another 185,000 Americans filed new claims last week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-april-9-2022-174045858.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. jobless claims held near multi-decade lows last week as companies worked to keep employees on their payrolls amid ongoing labor shortages. The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Initial jobless claims, week ended April 9: 185,000 vs.170,000 expected and a revised 167,000 during prior week Continuing claims, week ended April 2: 1.475 million vs. 1.500 million expected, 1.523 million during prior week While first-time unemployment claims rose slightly more than expected in the latest weekly data, they were still near a 54-year low set earlier this month. Weekly claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 during the prior week at just 167,000. That compares to the average of about 218,000 new claims filed per week throughout 2019 before the pandemic. And the latest figures represent a staggering reversal from the outsized claims filed at the height of the pandemic two years ago, when claims at one point topped 6.1 million in a single week in April 2020. Given the surge and then decline in jobless claims, the Labor Department has also now reconfigured the way it adjusts the weekly data to account for seasonal factors. Starting last week, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. For much of the pandemic, the department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustments that help smooth out large swings in the weekly numbers. Nevertheless, the underlying trend in the claims data has undeniably pointed to a labor market still short of sufficient worker supply to meet demand. Labor costs have risen for companies across industries as a result, and contributed to a further jump in inflation. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier this week showed consumer-level inflation rose 8.5% in March over last year — the fastest annual rate since 1981. "It seems like we’re in the midst of a perfect storm of factors with rising commodity prices, supply chain issues, and a tight labor market so it is not surprising that inflation is rising at its fastest pace in 40 years," Bill Price, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email Tuesday. Other recent economic data have also underscored the dual concerns companies have been facing over labor supply challenges and rising costs. In the National Federation of Independent Business' latest monthly small business optimism survey released earlier this week, the firm said 31% of surveyed owners reported that inflation was their single-most important business problem, edging out "labor quality" as the top concern. That also marked the highest proportion of firms citing "inflation" as their top problem since 1981. “Inflation has impacted small businesses throughout the country and is now their most important business problem,”NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg NFIB said in the release. “With inflation, an ongoing staffing shortage, and supply chain disruptions, small business owners remain pessimistic about their future business conditions.”" MY COMMENT What I take from this is the following: "Given the surge and then decline in jobless claims, the Labor Department has also now reconfigured the way it adjusts the weekly data to account for seasonal factors. Starting last week, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. For much of the pandemic, the department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustments that help smooth out large swings in the weekly numbers." In other words......the data is meaningless and useless. The government is changing the way it is calculated to fit their wishes for a particular time period. Of course as a long term investor this sort of weekly or monthly data is irrelevant to me. I dont care about this sort of general economic data. I simply care about fundamentals and earnings of the specific companies that I focus on.
And how is Elon gonna get the moneys to buy twitter? He’ll have to sell tsla shares to get that money? that will likely flood the market with tsla shares… or maybe he has a wicked wicked comic book collection? Man, that’s a lot of comics he needs to sell!
This little article contains some of the recent.....BANK....earnings. Not that they matter much to the general markets and business outside of the banking niche. Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed as investors weigh mega bank earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-14-2022-224032713.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks were little changed Thursday after a rally in the previous session on hopes for an earnings season boost to markets. Investors are digesting a flurry of mixed quarterly reports from Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Citigroup (C). The S&P 500 was slightly above breakeven after the index jumped 1% to end a three-day slide in Wednesday's session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 130 points, or about 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.7% lower paring gains from a 2% jump Wednesday in its best session since March 18. Meanwhile, Treasury yields pushed forward, with the 10-year benchmark back above 2.7%. Shares of Twitter (TWTR) surged as much as 13% in early-hour trading after Tesla CEO Elon Musk offered to buy the social media giant for $54.20 per share, or about $41 billion in cash, a new SEC filing on Thursday showed. Musk said the social media company he has often criticized must go private in order to make effective changes. Sentiment on Wall Street recovered Wednesday after inflation data spooked investors to start the week. Traders weighed a flurry of first quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY). Delta rose 6.2% despite another loss in its quarterly results after the airline said it returned to profitability in March following an Omicron hit on business and predicted revenue will reach between 92% and 97% of pre-pandemic levels this quarter. Meanwhile, JPMorgan shares closed down 3.2% to the lowest level since January 2021 after the largest U.S. bank by assets reported a 42% drop in profit from last year on losses tied to higher inflation and Russia's war in Ukraine. Bed, Bath & Beyond also faltered after it missed sales expectations. The initial batch of reports preface a milder quarter for earnings growth than previous periods. However, earnings are expected to be a bright spot for investors who much of this year so far have grappled with sharp market swings tied to worsening geopolitical risk, inflationary pressures and fears monetary tightening may prompt an economic contraction as the Federal Reserve sets out on its rate hiking plans. Analysts have tempered their expectations on first quarter earnings, lowering bottom-up EPS forecasts in aggregate for the Q1 by 0.7% from $52.21 to $51.83, according to data from FactSet. On the other hand, EPS forecasts for the second quarter are up by 1.6% from $55.16% to $56.07, by 2.4% from $57.82 to $59.23 for the third quarter, by 3.9% from $58.31 to $60.59 for the fourth quarter and by 2.0% from $223.43 to $227.80 for 2022 overall. Economists at Bank of America in a note out this week also predicted a resilient earnings quarter despite grim macroeconomic headlines throughout the period. “Leading signals and early reporters suggest a high likelihood of an EPS beat in Q1,” BofA said, adding the financial institution expects a 4% beat, or $53.50 vs. consensus $51.54. However, the bank warned analyst expectations for record margins in the coming quarters were “too high.” “History suggests that oil shocks spawn weaker consumption with a three-to-four quarter lag, indicating a 2H slowdown,” the note said. 8:58 a.m. ET: Retail sales increase despite soaring price levels American consumers continued spending in March even amid inflationary pressures that led to a surge in the costs of food, gasoline and other basics. U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% after logging a revised 0.8% jump from January to February. Wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts have fueled spending. January’s increase of 4.9% was the biggest jump in spending since March 2021 when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400. The Commerce Department reported general merchandise stores saw business up 5.4%, while sales at clothing stores jumped 2.6%. Online sales rose 6.4% and restaurant sales climbed 1%. 8:45 a.m. ET: Another 185,000 Americans filed new claims last week Applications for unemployment insurance rose slightly more than expected in the latest weekly data but held near a 54-year low set earlier this month. The Labor Department's latest weekly jobless claims report showed 185,000 claims were filed in the week ended April 9, coming in just above the 170,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. The prior week's new claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 at 167,000. That compares to the average of about 218,000 new claims filed per week throughout 2019 before the pandemic. Given the surge and then decline in jobless claims, the Labor Department has also now reconfigured the way it adjusts the weekly data to account for seasonal factors. Starting last week, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. For much of the pandemic, the department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustments that help smooth out large swings in the weekly numbers. 8:15 a.m. ET: Citi profit drops 46% due to loan loss provisions and slower dealmaking Citigroup (C) logged a 46% plunge in first-quarter profit as it took a hit on provisions for Russia-related losses, a slump in underwriting fees and higher expenses. The banking powerhouse added $1.9 billion to its reserves in the quarter to prepare for losses from direct exposures to Russia and the economic impact of its war in Ukraine. Citi is the most global of the U.S. banks. The move pushed credit costs to $755 million, a contrast from the $2.1 billion benefit one year ago when it freed up loss reserves built up during the COVID-19 pandemic. Citi reduced its exposure to Russia to $7.8 billion, from $9.8 billion in December, also lowering its worst-case-scenario loss estimate to no more than $3 billion, down from the nearly $5 billion estimated last month. Meanwhile, net income fell to $4.30 billion, or $2.02 per share from $7.94 billion, or $3.62 per share, a year earlier. Shares of Citigroup were up 3% in pre-market trading. 8:03 a.m. ET: Goldman Sachs reports 42% fall in first-quarter profit Goldman Sachs (GS) saw first-quarter profit halve during the first quarter on a slowdown in capital markets activity from levels in the same period last year that weighed on the bank's investment banking business. Profit applicable to common shareholders fell to $3.83 billion, or $10.76 per share, in the quarter ended March 31, from $6.71 billion, or $18.60 per share, a year ago. Total net revenue fell to $12.93 billion in the quarter, down nearly 27% from last year. “It was a turbulent quarter dominated by the devastating invasion of Ukraine,” CEO David Solomon said in a statement. “The rapidly evolving market environment had a significant effect on client activity as risk intermediation came to the fore and equity issuance came to a near standstill. Despite the environment, our results in the quarter show we continued to effectively support our clients.” Goldman Sachs shares were up 1.3% in pre-market trading. 7:52 a.m. ET: Morgan Stanley first-quarter profit slumps 11% on lower trading revenues Morgan Stanley (MS) reported an 11% drop in its first-quarter profit following a slump in equity underwriting revenue from last year's highs. The company, however, saw a jump in advisory revenues driven by higher levels of completed M&A transactions. The mega bank recorded net revenues of $14.8 billion for the first quarter ended March 31, compared to $15.7 billion a year ago. Net income was $3.7 billion, or $2.02 per share, down from $4.1 billion, or $2.19 per diluted share the same period a year ago. “The Firm delivered a strong ROTCE of 20% in the face of market volatility and economic uncertainty, demonstrating the resilience of our global diversified business,” Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said in a statement. “Institutional Securities navigated volatility on behalf of clients extraordinarily well, Wealth Management’s margin proved resilient and the business added $142 billion net new assets in the quarter, and Investment Management benefited from its diversification,” he said said. Shares of Morgan Stanley were up 2.3% in pre-market trading. 7:30 a.m. ET: Wells Fargo shares drop after bank reports 21% quarterly drop in profit Wells Fargo (WFC) reported a nearly 21% drop in first-quarter profit after rising inflation and interest rates, as well as geopolitical turmoil from Russia's war in Ukraine put a dent in its core business during the period. The fourth-largest U.S. lender posted a profit of $3.67 billion, or 88 cents per share, for the three months ended March 31, compared to $4.64 billion, or $1.02 per share, over the same quarter last year. "Our internal indicators continue to point towards the strength of our customers' financial position, but the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will take actions necessary to reduce inflation and this will certainly reduce economic growth," Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said. "In addition, the war in Ukraine adds additional risk to the downside." Wells Fargo shares were down 3.4% in pre-market trading as of 7:30 a.m. ET." MY COMMENT These big banks above......with the exception of Wells Fargo.....are NOT banks in the sense that people think of what a bank is. These companies are.....investment banks......not commercial/consumer banks in the form that the average person uses the term "bank". They do massive amounts of short term, speculative, trading. They do all sorts of global speculation and underwriting. There is ZERO correlation between what they are doing financially and the success of the average.......non-bank......company. I am glad that they report in the first week and we get them out of the way all at once. They are simply NOT relevant to most earnings that follow. The one exception in the above bunch of companies is Wells Fargo. They are a traditional consumer type bank. Not that I am praising or recommending them. They have a terrible record of.......ALLEGED......fraud and other.....ALLEGED.....anti consumer behavior toward their own customers over the past 15 -20 years. Horrible management in my opinion that never seems to be able to turn things around. there are certain business areas that I tend to NEVER own......drug companies, banks, financial companies, car companies, etc, etc. I dont see this ever changing over my lifetime as an investor.
You are right Zukodany. If he buys the company he will either have to sell TESLA shares......or......he will finance the purchase. Perhaps he will put together a group of investors to help with the financing. But, in general I think you are right....it will potentially weaken Tesla shares over the short term.
I also agree with your statement: BUT.....anyone else from the tech world buying this company will simply be wasting their money on a failing business. No one else will have the ability or interest in changing what needs to be changed to make the company a success. The management style and culture will continue......well actually......it will probably get much worse.
Of course, you are right now in front of your very eyes witnessing the war over freedom of speech between David and the Goliaths
I’m also down big with AMD but like u said it’s part of the high risk game and I’m also not selling. I’m actually buying more to lower my avg cost
Great to see you posting today Dax. I know you are tied down with a busy job. Also nice to see that you are holding on and not giving in to fear and panic. Everyone on here seems to have very strong risk tolerance with the companies that they believe in.
Yes, working hard now so my future self can thank me. Since I don't have time to keep up with the market I just invest all my money in QQQ, and VOOG (long term investment). For high risk high reward I invest in AMD, TSLA, and APPL. On my free time I come to this thread and try to read up on all the info you post. It's pretty informative so thank you for all you do. My main concern is the house market now. I want to buy a house eventually but will there ever be a right time to buy a house? or are these prices the new norms for buying now? I guess time will tell
I suspect that with rising mortgage rates the prices will come down but only time will tell, but regardless, a deal is always out there to be had so like everything in life you just need to research before finding it.
I just don't care anymore. Keep my stuff and just work hard. Maybe 2022 is a stock year just to forget. We've had this before. Life is more than QQQ and SPY.
I would guess that at some point the real estate market will collapse in the "normal" markets. It never goes straight up forever. But....in the HOT markets.....a collapse is not going to mean the same thing....perhaps stagnant prices for a year or two. The problem is knowing when this might happen. If the FED causes a nasty recession it might happen sooner than later. One thing about the real estate market.....it can lose steam very quickly.......and.....without warning. Now.....if I was looking to buy a home.....I dont think I would wait. I would just try to find what I like and do it now.....on the basis that it is probably cheaper than paying.......rent.....and if I was a young or new buyer I would be planing to stay for at least 5-10 years. Of course I am talking about a personal residence. I would NOT be speculating in real estate in this INSANE market.
We are at the end of the week since the markets are closed tomorrow for.....Good Friday. Good riddance to this week. I ended up in the RED today. And.....I got beat by thee SP500 today by 0.31%. TGIF.......is what I have to say....even though it is Thursday.
So.....for the short week......read-em and weep. DOW year to date (-5.19%) DOW for the week (-0.77%) SP500 year to date (-7.89%) SP500 for the week (-2.12%) NASDAQ 100 year to date (-14.87%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.00%) NASDAQ year to date (-14.66%) NASDAQ for the week (-2.59%) RUSSELL year to date (-10.70%) RUSSELL for the week +0.55%
We are now in the middle of a......lesson in RISK TOLERANCE and RISK MANAGEMENT. I suspect that there are many people.....not on this board.....that took way too much risk with short term money and are being PUNISHED at the moment. The market this year is WHY you do not invest in stocks and other risky assets with short term money. What we are seeing right now for the first four months of this year.....could.....last all year......or.....it could be over next week. it is IMPOSSIBLE to know. AND......NO.....I am NOT saying that I think it will end next week. I am saying......there is no way to know. I suspect that we have 2-4 months of PAIN ahead of us at MINIMUM. That is just how it goes. It is all about the long term average total return as an investor. That is where the RISK MANAGEMENT part comes in. You can have great.....risk tolerance....but if you are investing in unrealistic or unreasonable stocks and funds.....it is not going to matter. You manage your long term risk by investing in stocks and funds that have the absolute best......PROBABILITY.....of success. That means evaluating the business prospects of the companies that you buy.......or.....it means that you invest by buying broad Indexes like the SP500.....or.....some combination of both. It means that you dont shoot for the moon. The markets are NOT a casino.......it is not an exercise in MACHO behavior.........a long term investor MUST be detached and LOGICAL in what they invest in.
