meanwhile, should the nazzy (nasdaq comp) close around current levels here would be its largest monthly drop since Lehman lol if we're having to go all the way back to the height of the GFC in 2008 for market statistics then you know it's pretty notably bad eh
Pretty much nowhere to hide except for some Chinese internet stocks, at least my FXI holdings are green for me Sounds like the tech crackdowns might end in China and those Chinese internet stocks have already been beaten up so badly, wouldn't be surprised to see them outperforming the US stocks in the near future. The FED next week, maybe we get a relief rally right after whether they hike by 50 or 75 basis points, still not feeling overly bullish until we see lower inflation numbers that would make the FED being less aggressive on the rate hikes.
still not getting a sense that this is panicky (yet)? still feels kinda on the "orderly"-ish side to me. anyone else? would like to see more of a washout/capitulation move where the majors smash down some -5% or greater across the board to feel kinda better of a very short-term bottom in place and some meaningful bounce attempt that doesn't just fizzle out in 1 day lmao
Yeah I am waiting for that kind of day too, we are down 3% today but it doesn't feel like "oh no we better sell everything now" kind of a feeling just yet. Right now my feeling is that we will get a short and brief relief rally after the FED next Wednesday but we will see
Finished in the green today, thanks to shorting (WFC, TTWO). I did not think the month would go like this. Looking back at the month, can see that it was all straight down. No winning streaks. On the plus side, I kept my focus on risk management and easily beat the market this month, picking up lots of alpha. But on the minus side, I did not make money when maybe I should have, I accuse my biased thinking that we would be bouncing sometime this month. Kicking myself for not buying puts on the 20th when VIX/VXV was 0.80. Currently -4% on the year. Beating the market, and I don't need to pay taxes
My theory says that the SPX is going to test 4400 at some point--but this is not about when...it could be fast or it could take some time [I'm speaking from a swing trade standpoint]
Yep, I averaged in starting at SPX 4200. I didn't like the idea of entering long before that point. But as I mentioned above, I am working with the thesis that it should test 4400 at some point
I'm with you @bigbear0083 -- but I think people are starting to wake up...so to me perhaps this feels like the beginning on the panic. Come on in @stock1234 -- the water feels great! I agree 100% @stock1234 -- if there is a pop next week leading up to, or caused by, the Fed...it will be short lived (comparatively)
Gooooooooood Saturday morning and a happy weekend ahead to y'all's here at Stockaholics! The market week ahead thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ufa182/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's notable earnings calendars are also out and here they are. Have yourself a terrific weekend everyone! And here's to another crazy amazing trading in the new week and month of May ahead. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers!
oh man also i just totally realized this AM that the r/stockmarket subreddit community has just recently as of this AM crossed over 2 MILLION subscribers. will admit that i have been apart of that subreddit community in some form or another (mostly as a mod for years and years since close to its inception, until i had to step down early last year due to real life issues). it's a bit crazy to me to see the growth of that sub over the years. and while yes i will admit that most of this came during the height of the meme stonk craze early last year around the WSB/GME fiasco if y'all's recall. but, stiill 2 milli ain't too shabby at all! which interestingly enough isn't too far off from catching r/stockmarket's sister subreddit community (r/investing) for subscribers lol. but anyway, for anyone who also frequents r/stockmarket either as lurker or a poster (both for me still! lol) huge congrats! i just setup an official congrats thread this morning here: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/uf8e2v/congrats_on_2_million_subscribers_rstockmarket/ pretty cool to have been apart of the many years on there and to have witnessed all of that growth. i never thought i'd see the day that sub would hit in the millions on subs. amazing! even if it was partially WSB-induced from last year. still is pretty impressive for me to say the least haha. have a great rest of your weekend everyone!
Historic End to a Down Month Sun, May 1, 2022 It was a rough finish to the month of April. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPY) finish the month with an 8.78% decline month to date, the biggest one-month decline since March 2020, but the last trading day of the month was one for the record books. Since SPY began trading in 1993, the only bigger drop on the final trading day of the month was in August 1998. Back then it was a much larger 7.13% decline. In the table below, we show all months since 1993 that SPY declined at least 2% on the last trading day of a month. Behind April, the next worst final day of a month and the only other month with an over 3% decline was September 1998, but back then, SPY had still managed to finish up MTD. Finishing up MTD has been the exception rather than the rule of these occurrences, though, as November 1998 and October 2011 were the only other times that SPY fell over 2% on the last trading day of the month but still finished with a MTD gain. As for where the S&P 500 has typically gone from there, the first trading day of the new month has only seen a move higher 46% of the time as the index has averaged a 30 bps decline. For the full month, though, performance is generally more positive with an average gain of 2.75% and positive returns almost 70% of the time.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading week and month of May and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, May the 2nd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 5/2/22 - New Month, Same Market Mon, May 2, 2022 Futures were modestly positive for most of the overnight session but have weakened as we get closer to the opening bell. After a day like last Friday, it's all but guaranteed that we're likely to see continued volatility today. As they say around the roulette wheel, "Round and round it goes. Where it stops nobody knows." Economic data at 10 AM will also be a big factor in where the market trades today, but the looming Fed meeting mid-week will be on everyone's mind. While the current rate hiking cycle has already been called the most aggressive in a generation, it's important to remember that the Fed has only hiked 25 bps so far. That will change this week as a hike of at least 50 bps is pretty much fully priced in. The most ironic aspect of it all, though, is that after months of delay, the Fed is starting to ramp up the pace of hikes just after a negative Q1 US GDP print, slower than expected economic data, and even weaker data in China and Europe. In today's Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), economic data in China and Europe (pg 5), as well as a recap of PMI data for April (pg 6). It's often said that the stock market is one of the only places where investors don't like bargains. In other words, when the market is rallying investors love stocks, but when it declines, investors can't get out fast enough. Warren Buffett is one investor who has bucked the conventional approach of many investors and consistently used weakness as an opportunity. His actions in Q1 were a perfect example. In this weekend's annual meeting, one slide that stood out was the breakdown of Berkshire Hathaway's equity purchases during the quarter. Of the nearly $52 billion in purchases made by Berkshire in Q1, just under 80% of it occurred during the highlighted period in the chart (from 2/21 through 3/15) when prices in the quarter were at their weakest. It's also worth keeping in mind what Berkshire was buying during the quarter. It wasn't growth stocks that were down the most. Instead, it was mostly in stocks with reasonable valuations like Chevron (CVX). Occidental (OXY), Alleghany (Y), HP (HPQ), and even Apple (AAPL).
