Value 543 -- Trade Journal 2.0

Another morning rally -- another afternoon fail. Oof...

Sold the rest of my puts to close out the remainder of my pullback option plays in VRSK +6.75% and GIS +13.89%. The way the market opened, I wasn't (couldn't) let those winners turn into losers. Maybe they'll keep falling -- that's OK -- on to the next trade with my profits.

I also pulled the trigger on a quick little intraday put play on SPY +16.27%. Price acton showed a very weak inside bar pattern on the 10-min candle...but I exeucted the trade off the 1-min candles. Basically entered twice on those touches of the upper TLs...and then sold once it crashed through the support TL.




Re-enteredmy pullback option play on UNG -- my cost basis is $4.90 with 1% of my portfolio. This is a simple, failed bounce play. After coming off such ridiculous highs, it's bound to bounce...I just don't think the bounce will last...hence buying puts.




I also couldn't help myself from buying a FB earnings call lottery ticket...this name is just so beaten down, I feel as though expecations could not have been lower. I used 5/20 $175 calls -- my cost basis is $15.18. So far, more than good!!! -- but we'll see if it can hold the gains through the overnight & past the opening bell.

Added to 2x existing positions as we see more downside:

• NFLX -- basis now $200.55 with just under 5% of my portfolio
• FB -- now $181.75 // 5%

Lastly, I used the pop in BABA to adjust my weekly puts from a $86 to $87 strike price, and in doing so picked up more premium. When I do get put the shares, I will have an adjusted basis of -$2.26/share -- but hopefully I can keep writing puts for a few more weeks to reduce basis even further.

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Thanks @IndependentCandy14 -- not quite @bigbear0083 levels of epic, but pretty epic for me!

 

Really nice rise throughout the day -- until the smart money took profits & got out before the close...because holy smokes, mega tech is getting whalloped! Tomorrow might be very ugly...

But what a pop off FB earnings to kick the day off! At the opening bell I sold my FB calls +100.26% and closed 2/3 of my FB swing trade. I then closed the remainder of this swing trade as it dipped back into the mid-190s. In total, the swing trade closed +9.6% -- I could see this going either way tomorrow, as mega tech takes a mega beating in the after hours today.

I rolled the gambling profits from FB right into another gamble: TDOC -- I added to this position: basis now $40.85 with 3% of my traading portfolio.

As I mentioned in the Daily Discussion thread, I've been eying metals; today, I got into a swing trade on SLV -- my basis is $21.33 with 2% of my trading portfolio. This is separate from my long position in silver, which I continue to sell weekly covered calls against.

I did some more maintenance today on my covered calls:

• Brought CCL from $20.50 to $18
• F from $16.50 to $14.50
• SLV from $23 to $22.50
• NCLH from $23 to $20.50
• NOK from $5.50 to $5

On the put maintenace side, I moved my SFM puts from 5/20 $29 to 9/16 $26...and my BABA puts from 4/29 $87 to 5/6 $84

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Yikes, yikes, yikes -- if this day...this week...this month isn't enough to convince us the tides have (past tense) turned...

That said, I closed 2x swing trades today as there are still glimmers of green out there: BABA +16.94% and CRM +7.36%

And I used those profits to enter 2x new trades: a pullback and a swing trade.

On the pullback side, I entered CTLT using 7/15 $90 puts -- my cost basis is $6.90 on slightly over 1.25% of my trading portfolio. This setup is basically looking for a pullback after failing at its previous double bottom. Supporting this theory are the converging & descending major MAs above it -- so if the Fed says something next week which causes the market to pop, I would be comfortable adding to this position up to the 200 MA, but more realistically up to that steeper descending TL.




New swing trade on VZ -- cost basis is $46.78 with 1.75% of my trading portfolio. This has made a ridiculous 7-day crash all the way down through the COVID 2019 lows to the 2018 double bottom. I'd love to see this bounce back to $51 - $52 so I can flip this into a short or puts.




Option play maintainence:

• Rolled CCL and F weekly covered calls to 5/6
• Adjusted BABA puts from $84 to $94 on the 5/6 -- adjusted basis will be discounted $4.44
• Did not see the pop in NOK coming, so I had to push thrse out to 10/21...but I suspect I'll be able to bring these back to a closer expiration over time

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: April 25 - 29, 2022
Trades: 19
Winners: 17
Losers: 2

Summary: The thing I'm most happy about this week is the fact that although I had 2x losers, I kept the losses to a minimum by virtue of executing my trading plan. I had a theory for how price would move...I pulled the trigger on the trade...and when price did not move the way I thought & hit my exit criteria, I simply closed & got out. While this may sound like a small thing or an obvious move, in that "losing moment" it is anything but (at least, for me anyway!). During similar situations in the past (and perhaps even right now, as I look across some of my trades), I tend to contextualize or "explain away" an adverse move price...and end up with significantly higher losses than 3% or 9%. So for whatever it's worth, that's my biggest "win" this week.

Next Week: Once again, I feel as though I cannot even begin to guess where this market will take us. Broadly, I know it is down...but next week specifically, who knows. I could see the sell off continue Monday & Tuesday, and then a pop when the Fed meetings. Conversely, I could see a pop leading into the Fed, and then the selling off resume. What I do know is that a lot of names which were on the verge of making major moves, made them last week. So as I look through the charts this weekend, I will be focusing on names which are either reaching lows we havent seen since 2018-2019 (e.g. swing trades)...or...names which are retracing to previous support levels (e.g. puts or shorts).

Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is just over 65% invested:



I hope everyone has a great weekend -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

YTD Rollup: April 2022
Account Growth/Loss: +40.02%
Return on Risk: +49.35%
Net Gain/Loss: +2,495.2%
Russell: -16.98%
S&P 500: -13.31%
NASDAQ: -21.16%

Total Trades: 204
Winners: 199
Losers: 5
Scorecard: 97.55%

Summary: Closing 1x long USO position and those FB earnings "lottery ticket" calls carried the bulk of this month's gains, for sure. As I mentioned in my post to close out this week, I am particularly happy with how I handled my 2x losses this month -- definitely an area I struggled with in the past & I suspect I'll always struggle with to a degree. Managing risk is one of the main goals I set out to accomplish when I re-started my journal...in fact, it was the central thing I felt I wasn't doing when I posted my monthly roll-up for March. So, to see some sign of me "getting better" is always a good feeling. Now the hard part will be sustaining that discipline. Right now, there is only one trade in my portfolio which has definitely "gotten away" from me, and that is the PYPL calls I picked up back in Feb. Those calls are currently down -99.1% -- too far gone to really do anything that matters -- so I'll just let them play out to the bitter end. Something that I believe will help is the fact I'm migrating away from put option plays to selling shorts (sorry Robinhood, but thanks TradeStation!). Therefore, this coming month I will begin utilizing a short strategy more so than a put strategy; not having that time factor as a crunch to "rationalize" why I should stay in a position should help me identify a more specific exit criteria for each trade...but time will tell.

Here is a snapshot of my current investment positions; the market hasn't gotten down to the levels where I'd want to add to any of these...or even enter new investments...but I may very well do so before the end of the year if we come down to where I believe we will. Of note, the consistent (and at times dramatic) grind lower over the past month allowed me to get very aggressive in my weekly covered calls. As a result, I reduced my cost basis by a whopping 7.57%, which is a full five-point increase over what I was able to do last month...that goes to show just how crazy this period is.




Thanks for stopping by -- and good luck next month everyone,

V



Account Growth/Loss = dividing my total profit/loss for the year by my account balance from January 1, 2022
Return on Risk = dividing my total profit/loss for the year by the actual, aggregated amount of money I had to put at risk for each trade
Net Gain/Loss = simply adding up all the winning trades' % gains and subtracting out the losing trades' % losses
Keep in mind, many of my trades are option plays which are deep OTM

 

Nice way to kick of May -- closing half of my WELL pullback option play +26% -- this trade went against me massively for a long time (further evidence to why I buy so much time on the clock when messing with options), so I'll keep an eye on the rest of this position to prevent it from going back the other way.

Entered a new swing trade in GE -- my cost basis is $117.84 with just over 1% of my trading portfolio. I am comfortable adding to this position as it trades down to lower levels of support, namely $70 and $65, but I wanted to get into this trade as it entered the beginning of this gap fill window today. I feel there may be a chance we see some upside leading into, or directly after, the Fed...but I believe it will be short-lived. My target is $80.




Hard not to add to my TLT swing trade as the 10-year hit 3% today. My cost basis is now $122.19 with 3.5% of my portfolio. I will continue to look for opportunities to add to this position if price chops at current levels, or of course heads lower.

Also hard not to add to my UNG pullback option play as price rose back to a familiar resistance TL. My cost basis is now $4.43 with 2.5% of my portfolio. I will gladly add if this goes back to $27 or the blow-off top of $28 -- to me, this seems like a no-brainer -- my only concern with this trade is the time variable introduced by trading options.




Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

I do add throughout the year as I can, but when I do the calculations I do not include contributions in my number crunching.

For example...
My account starts at $10,000
I make $1,000
I addd $10,000

I do not do the math based on a $21,000 account vs. the $10,000 account I started with (e.g. 210% growth)
Instead, I simply take my actual profit of $1000 and divided by the $10,000 I started with (e.g. 10% growth)

I hope that makes sense,

V

 

I cannot help but feel like the past 2x days may be setting the market up for a fall on the Fed's more aggressive language. Had we continued the sell off from yesterday, then I'd expect more positive language as the Fed would want to 'calm' the fall...but after the closing-bell surge we saw Monday, and then the choppy consolidation-esque movement today...maybe that calming language won't come...or not to the level the institutions want to hear. Time will tell...

Closed my ROKU swing trade +12.37%

I entered a new short on DE as price reached the top of what I see as a bearish inside bar pattern -- my position is at $388.63 with 1.5% of my portfolio. Of note, this is my first true short play (before this, I've been using put options to make contrarian plays)...so I'm pretty excited about the "simplicity" of not having to account/factor for the time variable. I could see price moving up to the gap fill & 20 MA at $420 -- in which case I'd add. I doubt it will return to that double top in these market conditions, honestly. My first target to close half the position is a move down to the 200 MA at $470, but ultimately I am looking for this to make a move down to that floor around $320.




I tried to add to my UNG position, but could not get filled. I suspect NatGas will continue surging tomorrow, in which case I may actually get fileld at a better price than I would've today. That said, I did get filled on my add to CTLT puts after price popped significantly this morning -- my cost basis is now $5.20 with 2% of my portfolio. I missed the high of the day unfortunately, but interesting to see price close below the previous floor from a year ago. Again based on what happens tomorrow with the Fed, price could move up to the resistance TL around $110 -- and if it does, I will add accordingly. Market conditions, in my opinion, should prevent this from getting all the way to the 200 MA...but if it does, I'll have to see how it makes that move. Either way, I see more upside resistance than downside support...




Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Thanks @TomB16 -- means a lot coming from someone such as yourself -- thanks for posting!

 

Playing a little catch up, as I'm on the road for work.

I close several positions back on Wednesday during that post-Fed surge:

• WELL pullback option play +31.37%
• CGC swing trade +8.33%
• RCON swing trade +6.53%
• GE swing trade +3.52%
• VZ swing trade +2.96%
• MKTX swing trade +1.17%

I'm looking to re-enter CGC, VZ, and RCON -- of those trade above, those are the ones I am still most confident in their upside swing potential....but I wanted to take profits in the event that post-Fed pop was just a ruse....and boy was it!

As prices shot up Wednesday afternoon, I added to several of my contrarian plays:

• UNG puts -- NatGas continues to its insane move higher -- my basis is now $4.21 with 3% of my portfolio
• CTLT puts -- I missed the pop itself, but I added right at the opening bell yesterday, before things really got ugly -- my basis is now $4.47 with 2.6% of my portfolio
• DXC -- similar to the above, I missed the pop itself, but got in at the open yesterday -- my basis is now $3.45 with 1.3% of my portfolio

During that ugly ugly sell off yesterday, I added to multiple swing trades:

• NFLX -- basis now $199.1 // 5.5%
• TLT -- basis now $120.21 // 4.5%
• RBLX -- basis now $32.59 // 3%
• JPM -- basis now $126.88 // 3%
• SE -- basis now $85.05 // 1.6%

That should have me all caught up -- phew -- what a couple days?!

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

What a wild end to a wild week, what else is there to say! Mainly adds & maintenance today:

• Added STNE -- basis now $8.89 with 1.6% of portfolio
• Rolled BABA puts to next week -- my discount is now $5/share
• Re-entered CGC -- basis $6 // 0.55% -- pretty wild to take 8% profits one day, and the very next day re-enter at the same original level

And now on to what I'm sure is a controversial move: entered a swing trade in ARKK -- my basis is $45.48 with 1% of my portfolio. I cannot bring up my TradeStation right now to show the chart, but suffice it to say, this is back to where it was well...WELL...before COVID. I've been nibbling on so many totally crushed names, might as well buy a whole ETF of them! Time will tell...

Thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Weekly Rollup: May 2 - 6, 2022
Trades: 14
Winners: 14
Losers: 0

Summary: Nice start to the month -- especially given how wild of a week it was -- things could've gone much differently. The trade of the week was definitely my puts on WELL. At one point, this trade was 60-75% against me -- but ultimately the tide turned, and since I had given myself so much time on the clock via a long expiration, my patience paid off. If I had selected an expiration only 1-2 months out, I would've had a major loss on my hands. Yet another reason why I am so excited to finally get my TradeStation account up & running. I will let my Robinhood trades play out on that platform, and the transfer the capital over to TradeStation as it becomes available. This should let me give a better snapshot than the Excel versions I've been doing -- my continued effort for transparency, as a means mostly to keep me focused / centered in terms of my strategy.

Next Week: Work travel prevented me from rolling my weekly calls in SLV, CCL, & NCLH -- so my first order of business Monday will be to set those up. Then, I'll keep looking for opportunities to add to my current swing trades if the market stays in this downturn -- but if we get a bounce, I may be able to exit some of those. Market is too unpredictable to make any prediction...but I continue to love this volatility!

Here is the latest snapshot of my trading portfolio; this account is just under 70% invested:




I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend -- thanks for stopping by,

V

 

Thanks @T0rm3nted -- appreciate you always checking in -- hope you enjoyed your weekend

 

Holy smokes what a day

As luck would have it, I fortunately had the day off, which allowed me to take full advantage of it...

Took profits pretty much all day long throughout the bloodbath:

• Closed my entire put positions in DXC +29%, UNG +23.22%, and CTLT +23%

Rolled those profits (and some cash I've been holding) into some new swing trades, shorts, & adding to positions:

• New swing trade in SHOP -- basis $347.70 with 1.25% of my portfolio
• New swing trade in AFRM -- basis $21.87 // 1%
  
• New swing trade in DKNG -- $11.94 // 1%
  
• New swing trade in ICE -- $98.19 // 1%

• New short in CVS -- my entry is $99.12 with just under 1% of my portfolio
• New short in AON -- entry $276 // 1%

• New pullback option play on K using 9/16 $75 puts -- my basis is $5.10 with just under 1% of my trading portfolio

• Re-entered swing trade in FB -- $196.94 // 1.85%

• Added to SE swing trade -- basis now $74.75 with 3.15% of my portfolio
• Added to NFLX -- $193.10 // 7.25%
  
• Added to RBLX -- $29.35 // 4.85%
  
• Added to BIIB -- $200.38 // 0.75%
  
• Added to IBB -- $114.49 // 0.6%
  
• Added to BMY put trade -- basis now $4.88 with 1.75% of my portfolio

My trading portfolio is now 75% invested after today -- phew -- what a wild one!

Thanks for stopping by,

V