Today's stock market movers and news thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Monday, May the 2nd! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ugp9p6/52_mondays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ <- (click there to read!) (sorry running a little late this AM!)
Yeah right now I am thinking we might see a pop right after the FED on Wednesday and maybe Thursday but then the selling will continue unless the FED turns dovish all of the sudden, we will see
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, May the 3rd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 5/3/22 - Tepid Follow Through Tue, May 3, 2022 Futures have been trading on either side of the flatline this morning and most of the overnight session as investors look to digest Monday's volatility. US Treasury yields are modestly lower along with crude oil prices, while bitcoin is either modestly higher or lower depending on when you look. In economic data, Germany had some better than expected data related to employment, and this morning in the US we'll get updates on Factory Orders, JOLTS, and Durable Goods. In today's Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), economic data in China and Europe (pg 5), and a lot more. That was quite a reversal in the S&P 500 yesterday! After trading down over 1% heading into the final hour of trading, the market got an early start on a 'turnaround Tuesday' and rallied nearly 2% into the close. By the time the closing bell rang, the S&P 500 was up over half of a percent. Reversals like Monday's always feel great in the moment, but do they really mean anything in terms of the market's future direction? Since the early 1990s, yesterday was just the 17th time that the S&P 500 was down at 3 PM but rallied by more than 1.5% in the final hour of trading to finish the day in positive territory. The two most recent occurrences were this past January (1/24) and before that December 2018 (12/27/18). After that, you have to go back to October 2011 to find the most recent occurrence. The chart below shows the S&P 500 on a long-term basis going back to 1995, and we have included red dots to show the day of every prior reversal like yesterday when the S&P 500 was down at 3 PM, rallied more than 1.5% in the last hour, and then closed in positive territory. Looking at the various occurrences, there appears to be little in the way of a clear trend. While there were multiple occurrences during the dot-com bust and the financial crisis, there were also a number of occurrences just after the March 2009 low and in the years since.
The pre-market thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, May the 3rd! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/uhfjtf/53_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ <- (click there to read!)
Ok. Completely exited this morning at SPX 4195 [it went to 4200 so far] but at an all time high for my account. This doesn't mean I don't think that the price won't test much higher levels--my theory says it should. But, I want to profit take and risk manage. Now, for me, I want it to collapse deeply for another long entry
Yeah it is always good to take profit since you make some money, who knows what the FED will do tomorrow
Travel stocks cooling off today after the earnings from HLT and EXPE A lot of my friends are looking to travel in the coming months and I think many people do too but maybe a lot of good news have already baked into those travel stocks. Airlines stocks are up though
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy FOMC Decision Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, May the 4th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 5/4/22 - Let the 50 Basis Point Hikes Begin Wed, May 4, 2022 The above comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell were made a year and six days ago today, and we'd be willing to bet that when he made them he never imagined that one year later CPI would be over 8.5% on a y/y basis and accelerating. It just goes to show that predicting the future is hard, and today's foregone conclusions are often hindsight's most embarrassing moments. Futures are actually higher this morning, and while we're still far from the closing bell, a positive close would be the S&P 500's first three-day winning streak since late March. Before we can get there, though, we still have to digest the weaker than expected ADP Private Payrolls Report which came in at 247K compared to forecasts for an increase of 385K. At 10 AM, we'll get the ISM Services report, which is expected to show a modest uptick from 58.3 to 58.5. The big event of the day, obviously, will be the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM and the press conference at 2:30. For much of Powell's tenure as Fed Chair, when he speaks, investors sell, so hopefully for the bulls, the most hawkish outcome is already priced in. In today's Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), India's emergency rate hike (pg 4), the war in Ukraine (pg 4), other European economic data (pg 5), and a lot more. Mick Jones of The Clash couldn't decide whether he should stay or go, and in a similar way, the market can't decide whether it wants to rise or fall. While the ultimate direction this year has been to the downside, in looking at the intraday range of the S&P 500 over the last 100 trading days, we've increasingly seen a trend where the market trades in positive and negative territory in the same session. The chart below shows the 100-day rolling number of days where the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) traded in both positive and negative territory relative to the prior day's close. Through yesterday's close (5/3), the S&P 500 traded in positive and negative territory on 69 of the last 100 trading days. That's slightly off the recent peak of 71, but as shown in the chart, the market hasn't been this indecisive since July 2014. Make up your mind already!
The pre-market thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Hump Day, May the 4th! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ui5sw9/54_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ <- (click there to read!)
Looks like we indeed are getting a relief rally Powell doesn't sound as hawkish as being feared I guess, at least he is not really saying anything that indicate they will go with 75 basis points hike in the future meetings
Watch Powell's press conference as Fed chief says there's a 'good chance' at a soft landing (cnbc.com) He said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell soothed markets with his comments, including when he said a 75 basis point hike was not currently under consideration. The Fed raised interest rates by a half percent Wednesday afternoon, the biggest hike since the year 2000. That's the part that the market likes I assume
Dow rallies 900 points as investors bet the Fed can slow inflation without causing a recession (cnbc.com) I don't really agree with the headline but the rally is on lol, I think Powell said no 75 basis points hike is the reason for the rally, the market might even like a recession if it means we get easier monetary policy again
