Yeah I am definitely leaning bearish until inflation starts to slowdown and the FED indicates they want to shift from QT back to QE although naturally I am a bull lol. I am just buying very little and very slowly on some dividend paying stocks whenever we have a big red day, I don't think the bottom is in anytime soon unless the FED turns dovish all of the sudden. Have been adding some inverse ETFs too just in case if this market continues to tank, don't think I held any of them when stocks were going crazy during QE
Staples in the green, energy deep in the red and you can't hide in commodity today like we did earlier this year
My humble opinion -- but if anyone wants to know where this market is going -- it's a return to "normal." Pretty clear (again, in my opinion) where the "not normal" began -- and we're only just now getting back to the upper limits of "normal"
Another brutal day for the bulls Let's see if we will get another very short term relief rally after the CPI this Wednesday just like we did with the FED last week
UPST getting killed after earnings, not much sign of turnaround for these fintech/ARK/hypergrowth stocks
Commodities have been hot but we will see if they have peaked for now, the endless China lockdowns might not bode well for some commodities
I'm on board! After hours I picked up SPY -- cost basis $399.07 with 1.4% of my account I also added to my TLT after hours -- basis now $19 with 5.15% of my account If we see more downside tomorrow, I'll likely buy SPY QQQ IWM calls and/or leveraged ETFs I'm also close to adding to my GLD and SLV as well if we see another flush like today.
Of the 97 S&P 500 corrections since 1928, 28 had their lowest close on Tuesday, and another 26 on Monday. Far more frequent than the other days. (source: https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/can-the-market-bottom-on-a-friday/)
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to you all! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, May the 10th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 5/10/22 - Turnaround? Tue, May 10, 2022 It's been a painful three days for US equity investors, and they're looking to catch a break today as S&P 500 futures are indicating a rally of about 1% at the open. Investors have been fooled enough times this year already by a strong tape at the open, so you can't fault them for viewing this morning's rally with a fair amount of skepticism. Treasuries are also rallying this morning as the 10-year yield is back below 3%. The only economic news on the calendar this morning was the NFIB Small Business Optimism report which was unchanged from March and slightly ahead of expectations. Over in Europe, economic sentiment came in better than expected whole Industrial Production in Italy managed to come in unchanged versus forecasts for a decline of 1.9%. In today's Morning Lineup, we recap the recent developments in stablecoins (pg 4), overnight earnings (pg 5), economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 6), and a lot more. After breaking below support to close last week, the bottom fell out of the Nasdaq 100 yesterday as the index dropped to another 52-week low and its lowest level since November 2020. With the Nasdaq 100 at 52-week lows, we wanted to check in on its valuation and how it looks relative to the S&P 500. The chart below shows the historical premium in the Nasdaq 100's P/E ratio relative to the S&P 500. For the last ten years, there has never been a point where the Nasdaq 100 traded at a cheaper valuation than the S&P 500, and the average premium during that span has been 23.1%. Towards the end of 2019, right before COVID, the Nasdaq 100's premium valuation to the S&P 500 was right in line with its historical average, but that premium exploded higher during COVID reaching as much as 50% in late 2021. Through a combination of earnings growth and rapidly falling stock prices, much of the air has come out of the Nasdaq 100's premium relative to the S&P 500, but it still remains elevated relative to the historical average.
Overnight /ES low at 3961.75. Shopping list is ready. Just FYI there is a leveraged 2x ARK ETF now, called TARK. Considering ARK_ can often move like TQQQ, I'm curious to see what TARK can do.
CPI tomorrow, let's see if they will use the "inflation has peaked" excuse to push this market higher, I might enter some bearish ETFs if we get a pump tomorrow
I too am starting to notice a trend with the "inflation has peaked," prediction. I do think the market will correct itself. You had a lot of people with excess money during the pandemic. Money they never had. That led to more people getting into stocks than ever before and people buying a lot of stuff. That drove up demand far too quickly for the supply chain to handle which has led to surges in prices and shortages. The pandemic programs have largely been over for a bit so I can see a lot of that excess money drying up naturally. And as that money dries up, due to the inflation and regular life expenses, the first thing to get liquidated is stock holdings. I do not have any stats to back it up but I feel like a large number of people who were in the market a year ago (most likely for the first time), have taken their money out. I think by the end of summer, the economy will have mostly corrected itself. As the consumer has less money, the supply chain will have an opportunity to catch up. And ultimately as the supply chain is able to overtake demand, you'll start to see prices come back down as companies compete to move products again. From an employment side, I cant really see how things could be much better. If you want a job, you can get a job. Most likely that very same day. It has not been this easy to get employment in a very very long time. I see that as a major plus. To me that signals that anyone who is unemployed is unemployed by choice and because they still have money or have found another way to make money outside of the mainstream economy. But that also says that people have the ability to get jobs IF they need them, which is reassuring. Wages have risen significantly in many sectors but not as fast as inflation so I dont see any problems in that area. The housing market is fucked. The primary impacts to supply and demand being that Moratorium on Evictions that lasted nearly 2 years. No better way to choke off supply to affordable housing that to cut off supply. I am not knocking the Moratorium from a moral side. I definitely understand the need to keep families in their homes, but from an economic side it certainly hurt when bank lenders and landlords were not able to evict tenants who were not paying and replace them with buyers/renters ready to move-in. I see it taking at least 2-3 years for the housing market to see correction. And by then the correction would likely mean having the same price today, 3 years from now. I do not like real estate right now. But I am a dolt. Anyways. My 2 cents.
Oh, and so far Crypto-assets have mirrored the stock market. I have had ETH staked for 18 months now. It is super annoying that Ethereum keeps pushing "The Merge" or any of the Phase 2.0 upgrades back. Although if they were to launch now, it would likely crash Ethereum given the poor performance over the last 18 months so I can understand them praying for some type of rebound before releasing the ability to Sell. Hopefully by the end of Summer. I am sick of holding it. I am Holding some APE coin though.
