TSLA - Tesla Inc

Looking better. Thanks Bill.

 

Here is some additional analysis for Tesla

By studying past Market movements we are able to get a line on what to expect in the future . History repeats in the lives of Men and also in Financial Markets . Gann states that every movement in the Market is the result of a Natural Law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past as the Bible plainly states . Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price Curve extending out towards the end of June containing four turning dates and other important price levels .
TSLA :
On the 26th January 2021 Tesla made top at 900 and ran down to the 6th March 539 low a move of 360 points in 39 days or a rate of 9.25 points per day. From here price moved up 241 points in the same time period as the previous swing down a rate of 6.17 points per day . The first range down was a full circle in price and it is also interesting to note the upswing was 241 points or 2/3rd of the circle . Quite often ranges will balance against the divisions of the circle such as 90 120 and 180 which are important price points especially if these ranges align with important Time Cycles. From the 14th April counter trend top price ran down 234 points in 35 days which closely balances against the time period of the previous swing down measuring 39 days . By comparing the price amplitude and time period of prior swings within the trend structure we are able to compare this data against the current position of the market and look for repeating patterns - this is what Gann referred to as form reading which is a very important foundation skill required to correctly interpret market structure . If we compare these measurements to the current trend structure we can see some similarities . Firstly the the move up from the 25th Feb 700 low up till the 1152 5th April top measures 452 points in 39 days a gain of 64% compared to the previous percentage increase of 44% so by comparing these two percentage increases we can see that the second range up overbalanced price but the time periods for both swings were balanced exactly at 39 calendar days from trough to peak . In 2021 there was a higher low on the 19th May at 546 which was 35 days down from the 14th April Top a decline of 234 points and from that point Tesla began the Bull campaign with Top culminating on the 5th November at 1243.
Currently we are down around 563 points from the 1243 High or about 45% compared against the previous drop into 539 6th March 2021 Low which measured 40% so we have exceeded that price swing in terms of percentage decrease . In the recent structure there are three important swings down - the first is from the 5th Nov 1243 Top which is 357 points down in 47 days moving at a rate of 7.5 points per day - the second swing down is from the 5th Jan 1208 Top which is 508 points down in 57 days moving at a rate of 8.9 points per day - then the current swing down from the 5th April Top which is presently 472 points down and 37 days in time up o the current date which is moving down at a rate of 12.75 points per day. By studying these ranges we can see the largest decline was 508 points and we are presently down 472 points so we have not balanced against that particular range at the present time - the first range down was 357 points which we have exceeded so these measurements can assist us in determining the potential amplitude of future price swings in conjunction with other factors but the main consideration is Time and when sufficient Time has expired and the Cycle is complete both space and volume should increase causing either Top or Bottom in the market .

 

Here is some more analysis on Tesla

By studying past Market movements we are able to get a line on what to expect in the future . History repeats in the lives of Men and also in Financial Markets . Gann states that every movement in the Market is the result of a Natural Law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past as the Bible plainly states . Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price Curve extending out towards the end of June containing four turning dates and other important price levels .


TSLA :

On the 26th January 2021 Tesla made top at 900 and ran down to the 6th March 539 low a move of 360 points in 39 days or a rate of 9.25 points per day. From here price moved up 241 points in the same time period as the previous swing down a rate of 6.17 points per day . The first range down was a full circle in price and it is also interesting to note the upswing was 241 points or 2/3rd of the circle . Quite often ranges will balance against the divisions of the circle such as 90 120 and 180 which are important price points especially if these ranges align with important Time Cycles. From the 14th April counter trend top price ran down 234 points in 35 days which closely balances against the time period of the previous swing down measuring 39 days . By comparing the price amplitude and time period of prior swings within the trend structure we are able to compare this data against the current position of the market and look for repeating patterns - this is what Gann referred to as form reading which is a very important foundation skill required to correctly interpret market structure . If we compare these measurements to the current trend structure we can see some similarities . Firstly the the move up from the 25th Feb 700 low up till the 1152 5th April top measures 452 points in 39 days a gain of 64% compared to the previous percentage increase of 44% so by comparing these two percentage increases we can see that the second range up overbalanced price but the time periods for both swings were balanced exactly at 39 calendar days from trough to peak . In 2021 there was a higher low on the 19th May at 546 which was 35 days down from the 14th April Top a decline of 234 points and from that point Tesla began the Bull campaign with Top culminating on the 5th November at 1243.

Currently we are down around 563 points from the 1243 High or about 45% compared against the previous drop into 539 6th March 2021 Low which measured 40% so we have exceeded that price swing in terms of percentage decrease . In the recent structure there are three important swings down - the first is from the 5th Nov 1243 Top which is 357 points down in 47 days moving at a rate of 7.5 points per day - the second swing down is from the 5th Jan 1208 Top which is 508 points down in 57 days moving at a rate of 8.9 points per day - then the current swing down from the 5th April Top which is presently 472 points down and 37 days in time up o the current date which is moving down at a rate of 12.75 points per day. By studying these ranges we can see the largest decline was 508 points and we are presently down 472 points so we have not balanced against that particular range at the present time - the first range down was 357 points which we have exceeded so these measurements can assist us in determining the potential amplitude of future price swings in conjunction with other factors but the main consideration is Time and when sufficient Time has expired and the Cycle is complete both space and volume should increase causing either Top or Bottom in the market.

 

Waiting for the 600s.

 

That's probably a good move.

I thought I was done with Tesla, and I might be, but the more I see and hear from other car makers makes me think Tesla has no competition. They will be able to scale without bound until there is a viable competitor.

At least other makers are trying but electrification has the potential to end VW who are currently the closest to being able to compete with Tesla.

 

My first tranche of Tesla was acquired in 2016 when it was a Cinderella story before the ball. It was a calculated risk with guessed 50% chance of total loss and 50% chance of 10x in a decade. In retrospect, I think I was overly optimistic.

By 2018, there was so much FUD and lies being smeared on Tesla, and I was so confident in it, I hit it hard. The 2016 tranche was a gamble but I knew the opportunity that was in front of me in 2018.

Today Tesla is in a similar position. Tesla is down but is still valued extremely high. If some competition can step up, Tesla might be valued about right, in terms of the 5 year future value. It is unlikely Tesla will go away, at this point. Even if the stock ceases to be the golden goose, Tesla is more than sufficiently profitable to scale as fast as they can build factories. This is the worst of the likely scenarios.

If competition can't bootstrap, and it's far from certain given VW's problems and everyone else's embryonic state, Tesla will own the entire market. If/when FSD comes online, Tesla will own that market and create a new rideshare market. If Tesla can get the robot into a usable state, they appear to have that market to themselves. If other car companies jump onto the Tesla supercharger network, Tesla will dominate there, as well. If Tesla starts paying a dividend, that will attract a lot of money, also. I think Tesla will start soon, because Elon appears to be a bit squeezed.

I see way, way more upside than downside on this. Someone with some spare cash and a 10 year horizon could do extremely well. Of course, they could also lose their shirt. That would be on them.

For my part, I continue to hold 0 shares of Tesla but I will scoop some if it dips significantly.

 

I know GM is talking about a $20K car but does anyone remember when VW was going to make a model 3 competitor with twice the range at half the price?

Remember when the Porsche Taycan was going to charge at 350KW when Tesla just got to 250KW? Tesla had a couple of isolated problems that were handled with tweaks to the charging profile. Porsche has backed down their max charge to 270KW and have still had to replace more than half of the packs in the Taycan fleet.

There are two primary differences between the Chevy Bolt battery issues and the Tesla S battery issues of several years ago. First, Bolt issues are an order of magnitude worse. Second, almost nobody is talking about the Bolt issues.

I think the key to investing is to cut through the bluster and look at real world performance. If Hyundai and VW can get their programs under control before they get into financial trouble, they have a shot at not going bankrupt. They will not, however, dominate Tesla unless Tesla starts making some serious mistakes.

 

Very well said. We may see the 600s hold for a day or 2.

 

I dont know how I feel about Tesla. I used to be extremely bullish on them but it seems like GM, Toyota, and a lot of the other major players may have superior EV technology within the next couple of years with these new SSB (solid-state batteries). I know Tesla operates in many mouts and not just in the EV sector but I could see a decreased market share in EV hurting Tesla.

I know as a consumer, my goal a year ago was to someday own a Tesla. Today, I am still interested in owning a Tesla but there are also other options like the Ford Raptor and EV Ford Bronco, among other EV's that are definitely grabbing my interest.

 

Damn you, Robinhood

 

As a stockholder I am a bit concerned, as an American citizen I applaud him.

 

There is the 600s, hope it holds a day or 2.

 

Yes.

 

Does anyone think the push to stop Tesla's battery plant at Giga Texas, based on environmental concerns, has even a single environmental concern? If this is legit, I would appreciate being brought up to speed.

One of the groups trying to block this business expansion is an anti-poverty group. This action seems somewhat at odds with what I would expect to be their primary mission.

 

Regardless of the circumstances $ 650s is attractive. $ 600 would be better.

 

The Indonesian investment minister indicates Tesla is going to open a Gigafactory in his country.

This makes some sense, as Indonesia has the largest nickel reserve in the world. Engineers also recently discovered a significant deposit of cheap labor in the area.

I expect the stock to respond positively to this news, if it holds true, when it is announced.

 

I know two CEOs of significant sized companies that came out as ultra-pro Republican in 2005 and 2006. In both cases, I suggested as gently as I could that taking a side was not a good business strategy. In both cases, they slammed the door on that thought, claiming it was their responsibility to save the country from Democrats.

Both of those businesses were in California. Neither business is still in operation.

One business was taken out in 2009 during the GFC and the other business is now in the owner's home and there are no employees, where there were once a couple of hundred, while the owner now works for someone else.

When business was turned off in 2009, there are companies for which a single sale could have allowed a company to survive. Obviously, I have no way to know if this business would have survived. I speculate it would not have but it would have ended a bit later, with a couple more sales.

... and then there is the discussion of how obnoxious it is to try to make other people vote your values......