Morning Lineup - 5/19/22 - Negative Follow Through Thu, May 19, 2022 After yesterday's plunge, bargain hunters are nowhere to be found this morning as futures are lower again and indicating losses of nearly 1% at the open. Markets in Asia and Europe were weak overnight but not as bad as it was here yesterday. Treasury yields are lower this morning as investors start to worry more about rising recession risks, and crude oil is lower. One bright spot this morning is bitcoin which is trading up nearly 1%. On the economic front, initial jobless claims were higher than expected but still extremely low relative to history. Continuing claims were slightly lower than expected while the Philly Fed came in lower than expected (2.6 vs 15.0). The only other reports on the calendar for today (and the week) are Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators. When the levels of uncertainty in the economy reach levels like they are at now, you get days like the last two where the S&P 500's daily advance/decline (A/D) reading exceeds +400 one day and then falls below -400 the next. Like the CEOs of two of the nation's largest retailers, investors have no idea what to make of the current environment. Yesterday was just the 22nd time since 1990 that the S&P 500 had an 'all' day (S&P 500 daily A/D reading above +400) immediately followed by a 'nothing' day (S&P 500 daily A/D reading below -400). Of those 21 prior occurrences, none occurred before 2007. The chart below shows where each of those back-to-back readings occurred. While there have only been 22 occurrences over the last 30 years, two of them have now happened this month! Overall, though, these back-to-back readings have generally occurred during pullbacks and are an indication of extreme volatility and uncertainty. Earlier this year when the market was falling, 'all or nothing' days were notably missing. The reason was mostly due to the fact that the Energy sector was moving in the opposite direction of the broader market, so when stocks rallied, the energy sector declined and vice versa. In recent weeks, though, we've seen the pace of all or nothing days pick up notably. In just the last 20 trading days, there have been eight all-or-nothing days, which is far from a record but certainly at the high end of the historical range. For the year, there have now been ten all-or-nothing days, which brings the pace for 2022 up to 26. Again, 26 all-or-nothing days for the calendar year would be nowhere near an extreme for a calendar year, but it is still relatively high. Like the temperature, day-to-day volatility is certainly picking up.
Small caps/ARK/growth names outperforming today Don't think we will find a longer term bottom until we get much closer to a recession, it would require a lot of luck and a lot of things to go right in order for the FED to slow inflation down without sending us into a recession I would think
Yep, I have all my chips off the table except a measly 10$ in Target following the dip. I dont think this is the bottom. I see another 10-15% room to fall before I consider getting back in. Also not getting back in while the Ukraine war is going on. Markets have a history of rebounding but only after a conflict has ended.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to you all! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, May the 20th, 2022.
7th straight weekly losses for the SPX and the NASDAQ and 8th straight for the DOW At some point we should see a bear market rally but we are not close to the bottom until inflation begins to die down
crazy stuff! ye, think i heard this would be the spx's longest weekly losers streak since 2001. but wait, there's more! apparently it's even worse for the price-weighted 30 company index (that would be the "djia" for those of you keeping score at home lol). evidently that one is on track for its 8th straight week of red. which if i have my stats correct, would be its longest losers streak since going back 99 years!! it's actually really crazy to me to know that we'd be doing something even worse on the "stats department" than we did around the covid correction, and the lehman collapse of 2008-09
also, my general thesis still remains the same. still feeling relatively strong that this messy action that we've been seeing in the market will continue to persist, with no real meaningful bounces that lasts more than just a few days or week, etc until we actually see that inevitable flush/washout/capitulation day. where the majors are pegged some -5% or greater across the boards. something similar to what we saw around the covid correction. i just feel like we need one of those scary kinda days that also gets the VIX to spike up to absurd levels. the fact that the VIX is still just chillin' out in the low 30s just totally screams "ORDERLY" to me lmao. just my 2c there haha.
.....annnnnnd the dj30 just briefly did the green print (it was super duper brief tho. woulda missed it if you blinked ) "welcome to the 2022 stonk market fam" gotta luv it
Haha yeah it was some kind of rally before the closing bell, we will see how next Monday goes, maybe the bears just taking profits before the weekend
Yeah crazy stuff, you would have to think it is pretty tough to break the streak that happened during the financial crisis
Gooooooooood Saturday morning and a happy weekend ahead to y'all's here at the Stockaholics forum community. The market week ahead thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/uum1jo/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Meanwhile next week's most anticipated earnings calendar as well as the highest volatility calendar are also now out, and Monday's pre-market notables. Have yourselves an absolutely splendid weekend ahead y'all's! And here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheer's y'all's!
I do think this is the best solution to the problems. The government is still pumping money and funding out to millions of people. While stopping these funds would inevitably hurt some, it would push many more back into the labor market. Some people are going to get hurt, financially, for things to correct. I need to do more research but I have been bullish on Nuclear power for a few years and could potentially see a resurgence in Nuclear as technology as advanced exponentially since the incidents at 3-Mile Island and over in Japan. Nuclear can be a safe option. Perhaps our best long-term solution. LEU aka Centrus Energy is of interest @23.50. URG aka 1.13$
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to you all! And welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, May the 23rd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 5/23/22 - A Positive Start to the Week For a Change Mon, May 23, 2022 There's no need to adjust your screens this morning. Equity futures are actually trading higher this morning. After flirting with bear market territory again last week, the S&P 500 is on pace to open up by about 1%. There's little in the way of a positive catalyst to point to this morning, but bulls will take what they can get. Whether it can last until the closing bell is an entirely different question altogether. The economic calendar is quiet today with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index the only report of note on the calendar. Fed Presidents Bostic and George will be speaking later today, and there will be a number of retail-related earnings reports throughout the week. The only notable reports on the calendar today, though, are Advanced Auto (AAP) and Zoom Video (ZM) which are both after the close. Last week was a rough one for US equities, but it was horrendous for consumer stocks. Consumer Staples, which was modestly higher YTD heading into the week plunged more than 8%, while Consumer Discretionary which was already one of the worst-performing sectors YTD, got even worse falling just under 8%. Two other sectors (Industrials and Technology) were down over 3.5% while only three sectors (Energy, Health Care, and Utilities) managed to post gains. The YTD performance gap between Energy and Consumer Discretionary continues to get more ludicrous with each passing week as the gap now stands at just under 80 percentage points, and no other sector is within 40 percentage points!
I'm surprised that the SPX is struggling with hitting even 4000. That appears to be the new resistance level. But, at any rate, as it collapsed below 3900 on Friday, I went long and then this morning, I exited totally for profit taking and risk management. At an all time high for my account, but not as profitable as I'd like since it collapsed from 4800 to the 3800 level. But, it's about protecting your account above everything else, especially in this environment.
Nice trade Yeah for shorter term trades I have been taken profits pretty quickly whenever I have any, can't get too greedy in this volatile market
I am thinking the market will end its weekly losing streak this week before we go lower again, let's see how rest of the week will play out, good luck rest of the week to all of you on your trades
