Well......a really UGLY day even by recent standards. I was Red.....obviously. I also got beat......slightly....by the SP500 today by 0.11%. The best thing about today is the fact that.....it is over with.
I am seeing more and more articles talking about the FED raising rates this week by 0.75%. This is IDIOCY......if it happens. If it does not happen......... it will have been massive media FEAR MONGERING. If it does happen it will show that the FED is in FULL ON PANIC MODE and have given in to raising rates based on extremely short term news items and opinion. It WILL NOT be a signal that they are serious....it will be a signal that they dont have a clue what they are doing and that they have lost all semblance of control. Of course......we all know that they are really NOT in control of anything to do with the economy.....it is all reactionary. There is absolutely NO economic reason to jump ahead of schedule with rate increases. If this happens the FED will have lost ALL CREDIBILITY going forward. No one will have the slightest clue what they are doing or why. The resulting market confusion will make it very difficult for the markets to turn positive. Every month as we approach FED day the markets will be in turmoil. The sad thing......whatever they do has absolutely ZERO chance of impacting inflation any time soon.
For anyone that has been living under a rock. S&P 500 tumbles nearly 4% to new low for the year, closes in bear market territory https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/12/stock-market-news-open-to-close.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The 2022 stock sell-off intensified on Monday with the S&P 500 tumbling to a fresh low for the year and closing in bear market territory as recession fears grew ahead of this week’s key Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 fell 3.88% to 3,749.63, marking its lowest level since March 2021 and bringing its losses from its January record to more than 21%. The benchmark closed in bear market territory (down more than 20% from its high) after trading there briefly on an intraday basis about three weeks ago. Some on Wall Street say it’s not an official bear market until the index closes there and that’s what happened on Monday. The last time stocks were in a bear market was in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 876.05 points, or 2.79%, to settle at 30,516.74, about 17% off its record high. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.68% to close at 10,809.23, bringing its losses for this sell-off to more than 33%. Major averages hit their lows of the session in the final 30 minutes after a Wall Street Journal report suggested the Fed would consider raising rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, more than the half-point increase currently expected. There were few places to hide on Monday as Treasury bond prices dropped, pushing the 10-year yield to its largest one-day move since March 2020. Bitcoin was slammed by 15%. At one point during the trading day, every single stock in the S&P 500 was lower. Only five stocks in the benchmark closed the day in the green. The moves came as investors continued to digest a hotter-than-expected inflation report on Friday and braced for the Fed to raise rates later in the week. “Anyone who wants to be bullish can’t find anything to hang their hat on,” said Jack Ablin, founding partner of Cresset Capital. “There’s nothing out there right now with valuations under question, with interest rates rising, the direction of the economy uncertain.” Recession fears growing Shares of Boeing, Salesforce and American Express fell 8.7%, 6.9% and 5.2%, respectively, dragging down the Dow as recession fears picked up. Beaten-up tech shares also took a hit with Netflix, Tesla and Nvidia down more than 7% as the Nasdaq touched a fresh 52-week low and its lowest level since November 2020. Travel stocks also slipped on Monday as Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line plummeted about 10% and 12%, respectively. Delta Air Lines dropped more than 8% while United tumbled about 10%. All major S&P 500 sectors dipped into the red led by energy, which fell more than 5%. Consumer discretionary, communication services, information technology and utilities all dropped more than 4%. The dramatic moves lower could indicate that many investors are profit-taking or repositioning their portfolios, and may signal that markets are in “a capitulation stage,” said Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer of Sanctuary Wealth. CNBC As equities sold off short-term rates jumped on Monday. The 10-year Treasury rose more than 20 basis points higher to top 3.3%, as investors continued to bet the Fed may have to get more aggressive to squash inflation. Prices move inversely to yields and 1 basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up roughly 30 basis points to about 3.3%. Monday’s moves came after the major averages last week posted their biggest weekly declines since late January as investors grew increasingly concerned rising inflation will tip the economy into a recession. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the U.S. consumer price index rose last month by 8.6% from a year ago, its fastest increase since December 1981. That gain topped economists’ expectations. Gasoline prices also hit above $5 a gallon over the weekend, further fanning fears over rising inflation and falling consumer confidence. Bitcoin tumbled below $24,000 on Monday and hit its lowest level since 2020 as risk-averse investors continued to dump crypto as rates rise. The news sent shared of crypto-related companies including Coinbase and Microstrategy down 11% and 25%, respectively. The cryptocurrency bitcoin has been a great gauge of investors’ risk threshold for equities,” wrote JC O’Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners. “Plenty of longs who bought in last year are still trapped, and thus we could easily see a pullback to 19,500. That would be a bearish read through for stocks.” Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday when the Fed is expected to announce at least a half-point rate hike. The central bank has already raised rates twice this year, including a 50-basis-point increase in May in an effort to stave off the recent inflation. Some economists believe the Fed could even raise rates by 0.75% this week following Friday’s CPI report. If history is any guide, this sell-off may have further to go. Data from Bespoke Investment Groupshows that since World War II there have been 14 bear markets on a closing basis and on average, the S&P 500 has pulled back a median of 30%, with the downturn lasting a median of 359 days. Amid Monday’s sell-off, investors should maintain a “defensive posture” in areas like consumer staples and health care, said Truist’s Keith Lerner. These stocks may not post big gains but can outperform relative to other sectors, he said. Ablin is looking at gold as a continued safe haven even as prices fall on the day, along with companies that pay consistent dividends." MY COMMENT Reason is now out the window. As said above......at one point today....EVERY SINGLE STOCK IN THE SP500 WAS DOWN. AND.......at the close ONLY FIVE were in the green. What we are seeing is a massive, indiscriminate, move DOWN in stocks today. Based on this one factor alone.....we are in for a drop from here. The BEST thing we can hope for is that this is an indicator of investor PANIC. We need to quickly shake everyone out of the markets that should not be there. We need to just get down to the bare bones, solid, investors left. That is the point when we will be at the bottom. If we are VERY LUCKY....the bottom will happen before the end of the year. BUT......I would not bet the farm on it. I am looking for a nice really big rock.....I have always wanted to live under a rock.
The good part of the current situation is to determine if you properly self evaluated your risk tolerance and how you truly view what you are invested in. I don’t feel bad about any stock or mutual fund I am holding at the moment, even though I have some positions that are down overall at this point. I can’t say I have always felt that way about prior “investments”. In reality, the times I felt bad about my decision is when I was speculating but was too inexperienced to realize it.
Amen....Jwalker. Anyone that was honest with themselves in positioning for their actual risk tolerance will be fine. That is a good criteria that you posited......not feeling bad about any stock or fund that you own. I am honestly with you in that feeling. Being invested in companies that are ALL in the top 15-50 companies in the world......it is not possible for me to have any doubts. The type of companies that I hold as my ten stocks.....are ALL....exceptional. If there is a bleak future holding those companies.....than there is nothing worth holding. Add to that the various times....probably 4-5 over the years......that I have dealt with significant downturns and issues.......the late 1970's and early 1980's.....the flash crash in 1987.......the dot-com crash in the early 2000's......the near world wide economic collapse of 2008/2009......and.....I am not really feeling much of anything about the current drop. At this point in my life.....not having a business to run and having a guaranteed lifetime income with no debt.....there is not much for me to worry about. I have noticed over the past 2-3 weeks that my portfolio......on the big down days.....is mostly tracking the SP500 now. This was not the case earlier when I was lagging the SP500 substantially on the big down days. That tells me that the stocks that I hold are starting to stabilize. How could they not.....they are ALL EXTREME QUALITY....the cream of the crop. I am currently down by about 6-7% more than the SP500. Once the market starts to come back I will gain all that ground back and more. That is why.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.....even though it is "likely" that we have a ways to go till the bottom. I am saying the rest of this year.....at least till after the elections. At that point we may not come back that much because we will have to deal with the next couple of years of incompetence......but hopefully most of the immediate pain will be over by the end of this year and we can just linger. Whatever is going to happen with the jobs/labor situation, with inflation, with house prices, with the economy......should be pretty obvious by the end of this year. Well.....what do you know.....the futures are up nicely right now. Probably due to the fact that on Wednesday the BIG FREAKOUT will be over......what the FED does will be known and FACT rather than the unknown.
Both of the previous posts, Jwalker and WXYZ made above are very relevant at a time like this. I was thinking the same thing this morning. If one has not experienced something like this it can be a valuable learning experience. Risk is a common topic in the investing world, but until you experience some type of stress associated with it, you really don't know your true response to it. Once you have that experience you are better able to define under what conditions you will be able to stick to your plan or whether you need to make an adjustment to what you are doing. I think this is one of the most important things to learn when investing. We probably all got that education for good or bad at some point in our investing time. Once you realize what your personal level is it tends to make things a lot easier in my opinion. Experience however you come about it is invaluable. "A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way." Mark Twain
YES......learn to go with the FORCE.....or the market ZEN. Focus on the future.....visualize the future.
But today.....this is not good timing for this data.....a day before the FED. Wholesale inflation climbs 10.8% in May, hovering near 40-year high Economists expected wholesale inflation to jump 10.9% in May https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...in-may-remaining-near-40-year-high?yptr=yahoo (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wholesale prices accelerated again in May as inflation tightened its stranglehold on the U.S. economy, adding to the financial pressure on millions of Americans. The Labor Department said Tuesday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, climbed 10.8% in May from the previous year. On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.8%. Although that was slightly lower than the 10.9% forecast from Refinitiv economists, the reading – near a record-high of 11.5% notched in March – suggests that inflationary pressures in the economy remain strong. Core inflation at the wholesale level, which excludes the more volatile measurements of food and energy, increased 0.5% for the month, following a 0.6% increase in April. Over the past 12 months, core prices climbed 6.8%. Overall, prices for goods jumped 1.4% last month, the fifth consecutive rise and the biggest contributor to the headline inflation figure. That included a 5% gain for energy costs and an 8.4% leap for gasoline prices. The services index, meanwhile, advanced 0.4% in May, with increases in transportation and warehousing services accounting for more than half of the gain. The surge in wholesale prices comes on the heels of a separate Labor Department report released last week that showed the consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, faster than expected. It marks the fastest pace of inflation since December 1981. Rampant inflation has become a major political liability for President Biden ahead of the November midterm elections, in which Democrats are expected to lose their already razor-thin majorities. Surveys show that Americans see inflation as the biggest problem facing the country – and that many households blame Biden for the price spike. Soaring consumer prices have also forced the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy at the fastest pace in two decades, raising the risk of the economy plunging into a recession. Policymakers already raised the benchmark interest rate by 50-basis points – double the usual size – in May and are expected to approve similarly sized increases in June, July and September. The worse-than-expected inflation reading last week has also put the previously unthinkable on the table: A mega-sized, 75-basis point rate increase in June or July. About 90% of trades are penciling in a 75-basis point hike at the conclusion of the Fed's policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, which would mark the first move of its kind since November 1994. "The combination of today’s PPI and last Friday’s CPI paint a clear picture of an economy overheating, with persistent inflation further back in the production chain," said Peter Earle, research fellow at the non-profit American Institute for Economic Research. "It looks like there is a long, hot summer ahead. Fed policies, to this point, have been ineffectual."" MY COMMENT Fed policies have been ineffectual......DUH. They have ZERO chance of doing anything with the type of inflation we are experiencing. Much of this is supply issues. AND.....the rising price of diesel is going to make things worse.....potentially much worse.....as small and independent truckers are driven out of business. The only good news here is that the increase was less than expected. Not many people are going to see that or care about that in considering this data. At lease.......the markets are so exhausted after Friday and yesterday......they dont really seem to care. Unfortunately we are slightly to the red today and how we close is.....OPAQUE.
People should be BRACING for a hit to good jobs in the coming months. We grew too quickly': Coinbase lays off 18% of staff to survive crypto winter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-layoff-crypto-winter-133351450.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is cutting its workforce by 18%, according to an 8-K filed by the company on Tuesday, as the crypto market continues to get hammered on expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The reduction will shrink the company’s workforce by 1,100 employees to 5,000 in total by June 30, according to the filing. The announcement adds to a litany of bad news for the crypto industry, with the total value of crypto assets dropping by 25% over the past month from $1.24 trillion to $929 billion as of Tuesday morning, according to Coinmarketcap. "We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom. A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period. In past crypto winters, trading revenue (our largest revenue source) has declined significantly," Coinbase Founder and CEO Brian Armstrong said in a blog post that announced the layoffs. “We grew too quickly," Armstrong added. Staffing reductions are spreading quickly across the crypto industry. On Monday, crypto lender Blockfi and the exchange Crypto.com both announced they are cutting their workforces in light of the down market and a rough outlook for the rest of 2022. BlockFi plans to lay off 20% of its workers and Crypto.com said it’s reducing its staff by 5%. Last month, Coinbase said it would slow hiring and rescind some job offers, a far cry from the company’s original goal at the beginning of this year to triple its headcount. The layoffs announced on Tuesday will “incur approximately $40 million to $45 million” in restructuring expenses, according to the filing, but the company did not change the outlook it provided in May when reporting its most recent quarterly earnings. "Coinbase has survived through four major crypto winters, and we’ve created long term success by carefully managing our spending through every down period," Armstrong wrote. "Down markets are challenging to navigate and require a different mindset." The job loss package includes at least 14 weeks of severance pay, four additional months of health insurance through Cobra, as well as access to the company’s Talent Hub. “Coinbase employees are among the most talented in the world, and I am certain that the skills you all possess will continue to be sought after by companies around the world,” wrote Armstrong. “I realize it may take longer in this environment to find new employment, and so my hope is that this financial and non-financial assistance helps make this unexpected transition for you as seamless as possible.” The company would not offer further comments outside of Armstrong’s letter." MY COMMENT We are at the start of a dangerous time for employees of major companies. As this economic event continues many TECH and BIG companies are going to freeze or even cut back on employment. They will cut out the dead wood and go very lean. This will be how they keep productivity and profits up. We are going to find out very quickly that the 11MILLION jobs that are supposedly out there are for the most part $15 per hour jobs. We are also going to find out that the unemployment and other employment data is a MYTH. The figures are so distorted from the pandemic shut down that they are worthless.
Speaking of jobs. Exploring the Fed’s Influence on Jobs Monetary policy’s impact on hiring isn’t as great as many think. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/exploring-the-feds-influence-on-jobs (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released May’s jobs report, which revealed nonfarm payrolls rose 390,000, exceeding estimates of 322,000, while the 3.6% unemployment rate was a tick higher than expectations for 3.5%. Oddly, some pundits fretted the data were too strong, arguing the Fed must act to cool the economy and hot labor market, which they posit could further fan already hot inflation. Ergo, with an eye toward next week’s Fed meeting, ongoing quick jobs growth may mean more rate hikes are coming—risking a sharper-than-desired economic slowdown. However, this argument overstates the link between jobs and monetary policy—and the Fed’s powers, in our view. Since the Fed’s dual mandate targets maximum employment while ensuring price stability over time, one might think it stands to reason there is a link between unemployment and inflation—and that the Fed will use its tools to raise or lower unemployment as needed to maintain price stability. Fed officials’ public comments seem to imply as much. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that an unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation “is probably well above 3.6%” these days while Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke last week about curtailing excess job openings to help cool prices.[ii] But changes in interest rates don’t directly affect hiring. For one, businesses generally don’t borrow to fund payroll. Borrowed capital typically goes to longer-term investments in facilities, capital equipment and intellectual property. That may mean some hiring further downstream, but the impact isn’t direct and it certainly isn’t quick. Despite analogies of the Fed manning the US economy’s steering wheel, its influence on output is much smaller than most people think. There is this notion of Fed heads “tapping on the brakes” with a rate hike, presuming some immediate and direct response to follow. Not so! Monetary policy is a blunt tool that influences money supply growth, which in turn influences economic growth, which then influences hiring. Fed decisions have some impact on market-set interest rates, which can have macroeconomic implications—e.g., the shape of the yield curve. But those effects aren’t necessarily make or break for the huge, complex US economy, as many other factors affect businesses’ hiring (and firing) decisions. Take the business cycle: In an expansion, a company may find it worthwhile to ramp up hiring despite rising interest rates. But during recession, a company could reduce headcount to survive even as the Fed cuts rates. Industry-specific trends matter, too. High oil prices, for instance, can encourage oil producers to go on hiring sprees because it makes business sense, regardless of what interest rates are doing. Political or regulatory matters—e.g., tax changes—could incentivize or discourage hiring. Moreover, beyond practical business reasons, the whole economic theory (Phillips Curve, wage-price spirals, etc.) underlying the premise of unemployment and inflation being tied together is bunk, but that is a topic for another day. History also argues against a direct connection between interest rate changes and jobs. See Exhibit 1, which shows the average monthly percentage change in nonfarm US payrolls in the 12 months before, during and after a Fed hike cycle began. (We show this as a percentage versus raw hiring numbers to eliminate skew caused by population growth.) As shown, there is very little statistical difference. Hiring doesn’t slow noticeably until well after hikes end—illustrative, in our view, that monetary moves don’t have the immediate effect on companies’ employment plans that many seem to think. Exhibit 1: Average Monthly Percentage Change in Nonfarm Payrolls During Rate Hike Cycles Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, as of 6/9/2022. Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payrolls, average month-over-month percentage change, February 1994 – December 2018. If you remain unconvinced jobs and monetary policy aren’t connected, consider: To the extent monetary policy has an economic effect that does eventually flow through to hiring, it doesn’t show up in jobs data overnight. Somehow unmentioned by most coverage we saw is the generally accepted notion that monetary policy hits economic activity (e.g., affects growth) at some uncertain length of time ranging from 6 to 18 months. There are myriad academic papers on this very subject. None we are aware of suggest two months is sufficient lag time for monetary moves to hit activity. Yet the Fed only began hiking in March. Even that was a 0.25 percentage point hike. The 0.50 percentage point hike came in May. We are aware of no theory suggesting the economy should already reflect such small moves so soon. Beyond this, sweating the jobs data is an implicit forecast of Fed actions, which is a practice fraught with peril. Now, monetary policy’s lagging economic impact is well known, including by policymakers. (Again, there is a bevy of central bank and academic research on this.) They may choose to simply not pay heed to a month’s data based on that. Or maybe they think the transmission mechanism for monetary policy to hit the economy is somehow on warp speed now, though they have said nothing to that effect. Or maybe they will look to other data points. You can’t know. We aren’t saying the latest jobs numbers don’t factor at all into Fed officials’ thought process or decisions. But central bankers are human, and their interpretations of the data can change based on new information. We have pointed out plenty of examples in recent history of central bankers here and abroad demurring or updating their guidance after the data didn’t conform with their projections. Rather than getting caught up in speculation about jobs numbers’ impact on Fed decisions, we suggest waiting for actual actions. Monetary policy is important, and we don’t think investors should ignore what the Fed does, but it is just one factor among many affecting the economy. In our view, acting on potential Fed moves with an unknown impact is an investing mistake." MY COMMENT The WORST assumption that anyone and everyone makes is that the FED is somehow running the economy and knows the impact of what they are doing. They are simply....tinkering. They dont have any real clue how the steps they take will impact anything. They take some action and than wait to see what the next data set is a month or two down the road. To make it harder......there is no guarantee that what theya re doing has anything at all to do with the data. The FED has a single action that is sure to impact the economy. That action is when they CRASH the economy.....as they usually do when they are in panic mode and trying to please all the politicians. THEY HAVE ZERO ABILITY TO GUIDE THE ECONOMY. They can tinker on the edges and impact the money supply......but.....they do not run or control BUSINESS. Look at it this way......if the FED knew what they were doing and had any ability to control the economy......would we be where we are today? Unfortunately I am getting the feeling that the FED is about to DITCH all reason and rationally......and start moving the interest rates out of PANIC. We will find out this week.
At the moment we have a nice little MIXED market. Here is the general take on the market toda Stock market news lives updates: Stocks trade choppily after bear market slide as rate decision looms https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-14-2022-115256585.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks struggled for direction on Tuesday following a plunge that sent the S&P 500 into its first bear market since the height of the pandemic. The S&P 500 fluctuated between small gains and losses intraday on Tuesday, after the index dropped to its lowest level since Jan. 2021. The S&P 500 also entered its first bear market since March 2020 on Monday, as its closing price put it more than 20% below its recent record closing high from Jan. The Nasdaq and Dow also traded choppily. The benchmark yield on the 10-year Treasury note pulled back from Monday's 11-year high to hover around 3.4%. The monetary policy-sensitive two-year yield also eased after spiking to its highest level since 2007. Oil prices rose, and U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures broke back above $122 per barrel. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remained under pressure as prices held just over $22,000. Volatility resurged across markets at the start of the week as investors raced to price in a greater likelihood of a larger interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve as it races to address inflation. Market participants expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates by the 75 basis points this week, with CME Group data showing Tuesday morning that traders were pricing in a more than 90% probability of such an outcome. The FOMC begins its two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday, with a decision and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set for Wednesday. Expectations for a much larger-than-typical rate hike soared after the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that a 75 basis point hike was on the table among Fed officials. And talk and market pricing of such a hike had already been building after Friday's much hotter-than-expected May CPI print, and after separate surveys in the days since showed consumers' near-term inflation expectations were increasing to levels at or near all-time recorded highs. "The Fed’s previous plan to hike by 50bp [basis points] at the meetings in June and July and then revert to 25bp increases in the fall was always dependent on inflation showing signs of cooling," Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. "Instead, the monthly gains in core CPI accelerated back to 0.6% in both April and May, suggesting that price pressures are broadening." New data Tuesday also showed wholesaler price increases also remained elevated last month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 10.8% in May over last year after a 10.9% jump in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly two-thirds of the May rise came from a jump in final demand goods prices including energy, which jumped 5% on a monthly basis. And other recent reports further suggested businesses' concerns over inflation remained elevated. The latest NFIB Small Business Optimism survey Tuesday showed inflation remained the top problem reported among small business owners. The share of business owners raising their own selling prices rose to match a record high in the 48-year-old survey." MY COMMENT On a day to day level the markets are so volatile that this general stuff is not very relevant. Investors can do one of two things....focus on the day to day and minute to minute. OR......focus on the long term and ignore the short term. My choice is clear and obvious. That is my BIAS. Anyone with a different view is very welcome to post on here. ALL views and investing styles are welcome to be discussed on here.
The term "crypto investing" makes me laugh. Cathie Wood's view on crypto kept me from buying ARKK during the hay days.
YEP......it is amazing to me that we have an entire business and "investing" segment of the economy built up around something that is illusory. There is NO inherent value in Crypto.....although I will admit that many feel differently.
I looked at my account just a minute or two ago. I had 9 out of 10 positions in the GREEN. I clicked out without even looking at which one of the ten was down. the dollar amount of the gain was moderate for the whole account.....but at least my ten stock were very broadly positive. The fact that the gain......in dollar terms.....was moderate means that I am still at risk of ending up in the red today if the market turns. BUT.....I will take it. I would rather be up part of the day compared to being down all day. At least I have a pretty good shot at being green by the close today.
Time for a little SOAP OPERA DRAMA for the thread.....Cathy Wood and ARKK. Cathie Wood's ARKK tests pandemic low as market sell-off batters fund https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-woods-arkk-tests-pandemic-low-june-13-2022-184748359.html "A meltdown across equity and cryptocurrency markets has dragged the flagship ETF for Cathie Wood's ARK Invest closer to pandemic-era lows. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 8.8% Monday to $36.58 per share, placing the investment vehicle within striking distance of its March 2020 pandemic closing low of $34.69. Earlier in the session, shares of ARKK traded hands as low as $36.33. Monday's decline follows a 7% drop on Friday, as markets declined sharply following May's inflation data. Each of ARKK’s top ten holdings were deep in the red during the week's first trading session, with Coinbase (COIN) leading losses, falling as much as 15% before closing down 11%. The cryptocurrency exchange platform, which Wood has consistently snapped up shares of amid a decline throughout 2022, comprised 4.1% of ARK Innovation’s portfolio as of Monday. Other Wood favorites, including Zoom (ZM) and TSLA (TSLA), the two largest positions in ARKK, were down 5% and 7%. Those losses, however, paled in comparison to other companies across the portfolio. DraftKings (DKNG), Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA), and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – ARKK’s fourth-largest position — were the biggest detractors in Monday’s rout, with shares suffering single-day declines of 15.8%, 15.6% and 13.3%, respectively. The downturn in ARKK on Monday came as stocks sold off more broadly on rising fears that inflation, and aggressive central bank policies aimed to curb surging prices, would tip the economy into a recession. However, even as these worries have permeated Wall Street, Wood recently doubled down on her longtime stance that deflation – not inflation – poses a greater risk to investors. In an interview at the UP.Summit in Bentonville, Ark. last week, Wood pointed to inventory pile-ups at major retailers as an indication that inflation will die down. “This inventory issue highlights the cyclical reason we’ve been saying we think inflation will unravel,” Wood said at the event. Wood has been known to make bold claims, including a prediction that bitcoin (BTC-USD) will top $1 million by 2030. Bitcoin extended a months-long slide Monday to trade below $23,000, its lowest price level since 2020. So far this year, ARK Innovation has lost more than than 60%, with the ETF down 75% from its February 2021 all-time high. Before this recent decline towards multi-year lows, ARKK had gained about 12% from mid-May until early-June." MY COMMENT EVEN though I do agree with Cathy on DEFLATION.......this fund is insane. I am NOT a fan of her continued adding to her dropping positions and her full speed ahead attitude......or.....her very erratic stock piking. You have to give her credit for.....GUTS. She definately is willing to gamble with what she believes. This fund is so EXTREME that it should only be limited to a very small percentage of any portfolio.......for those investors that are willing to take EXTREME speculative risk. A 16% loss in only two days......is INSANE.
COURAGE.....that is the word of the day for long term investors. You have to be able to follow your own path....when all those around you are on a different road. You have to believe that 100 years of investing historical data and all the academic research is CORRECT and will be proven to be so yet again....it just takes COURAGE. I am around mostly young adult to middle age people all day....every day.....and I am totally impressed with the vast majority of them. You have to BELIEVE in the future.......and.....you have to invest for your future. NOW......is the perfect time to start investing if you have not done so before. Put money into a SP500 Index Fund right now and over the next 6-18 months......and....when you look back in about 5-7 years the gains and compounding will be ENORMOUS.....for those that have the vision and COURAGE. This sort of time period when the markets are taking a HUGE hit is the.....GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTING.....for anyone that is young to middle age and has the ability to invest for the long term. GLORIOUS. All it takes is squeezing out some extra money to invest and......COURAGE. The POWER to change the course of your life is in your hands......the time to start is right now.....all it takes is....COURAGE. To quote a movie........"YOU CAN DO IT".......if you have COURAGE.
Agreed. I have a friend or two that was "all in" on Crypto. They were always boasting about the skyrocket money they were making and going to make. I never had any interest in it and still do not. I admit I haven't bothered to research too much about it...it just does not fit my investing style. Since it came up in this thread I thought this was an interesting poll about it. WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Eight percent of U.S. adults choose cryptocurrency as the best long-term investment from a list of six investment options. Cryptocurrency is on par with savings accounts or CDs (10%) but well behind real estate (45%), stocks (18%) and gold (15%). Americans are least likely to say bonds are the best investment. Cryptocurrency is a digital asset that is not issued or backed by a bank or government authority; it can be bought, traded and used for cash like other investments. Since 2002, Gallup has regularly asked Americans to name what they see as the best long-term investment among various options, adding gold to the list in 2011 and cryptocurrency this year. The sample of 1,019 adults in the April 1-19 poll was randomly divided. Half of respondents were asked the 2011-2021 wording that includes real estate, stocks, gold, savings accounts and bonds; and half were offered a choice of cryptocurrency in addition to those five options. Real estate was the top option for both samples, receiving 45% of the vote in each version of the question. Most of the votes for cryptocurrency come at the expense of stocks, chosen by 24% of those who were not asked about cryptocurrency and 18% of those who were. The other investments' results changed by one percentage point, or not at all, when cryptocurrency was included. Younger Investors More Positive About Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency is more appealing to younger investors, with 13% of those under 50 saying it is the best investment, compared with 2% of those over 50. In fact, cryptocurrency ties with stocks as the second-best choice of investments among adults under 50, behind real estate. Real estate is the top option among both age groups, although younger adults (53%) are much more likely than older adults (37%) to believe it is the best investment choice. Older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to believe stocks and gold are the best investments. Stock Ownership Just Below 60% The April 1-19 poll also provides Gallup's annual update on U.S. stock ownership. It finds that 58% of Americans say they own stocks, slightly higher than in recent years but not a statistically significant increase. Before the Great Recession, stock ownership consistently averaged above 60% among U.S. adults, but it has been at that level since 2008. Stock ownership is common among upper-income Americans; 89% of those living in households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more own stock. That compares with 61% of middle-income Americans and 25% of lower-income Americans. Most other demographic differences in stock ownership, such as by educational attainment, race and age, are likely tied to income differences within those groups. Bottom Line Cryptocurrency is a relatively new investment option. Americans overall don't see it as one of the top investment options yet, but that could change in the future because many younger adults already consider it a viable investment choice. Bitcoin, arguably the most well-known cryptocurrency, is currently worth about $30,000 per unit and had been worth over $60,000 per unit late last year. However, other cryptocurrencies are worth less than a dollar. For now, with U.S. housing prices at record levels, Americans continue to perceive real estate as the best investment. The real estate market remains strong, but those record prices combined with higher interest rates could weaken it. Indeed, for the first time, a majority of Americans say it is a bad time to buy a house. If the real estate market does soften, people may begin to see other options as the best investment, as they did after the housing crash in the late 2000s.
