Yes, it looks we are going to start out our short week once again painted red. I think the key takeaway from this whole mess is...just survive it. Be realistic with ourselves and our investment plans. As mentioned earlier in the thread, there is really only so much you can do at a time like this. For long term investors it involves being invested into good/solid companies that have proven they too can survive hardships. As many have pointed out here, we have to look at it from this view and trust the current plan we have will carry us through to better times. So review and research your long term plan. Look at it up close and how it has carried you through difficult times before. Trust yourself with how you have structured it. Then look at it with a wide, long distance lens. In all likelihood, it is still as sound as it was in a previous "storm." When all is said and done...that's about all we can do at the moment...survive.
Mr. Shayne Nyquvest contribution to Universal Ibogaine Mr. Shayne Nyquvest co-founded UI in early 2018, after personally seeing the transformational effects and potential of Ibogaine and was involved in Universal Ibogaine Inc.’s early stage development.
I just looked at my primary account for the first time today. Nicely in the green at this moment. It is nice to rack up some "cushion money". I dont mind going through an extended downturn or even a recession.....as long as I get opportunities to replenish some cash along the way and......at least so far.....hold my losses below 30%. Year to date at this moment I am DOWN by 26%. For the day ALL of my stocks are UP except for.......Microsoft, Costco, and Honeywell. I hope i can hold onto these gains till the close.
I was near our local Walmart today and amazingly gas was $4.19......so I filled up. Most stations in this area range from about $4.27 to $4.49.
EXACTLY right. How high-net-worth individuals are riding out the bear market, according to their financial planners https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-net-worth-individuals-riding-120000632.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The past six months have been the stock market's worst start to a year since 1970. And even though the richest billionaires lost a collective $1.4 trillion in the past six months, in general high-net-worth individuals with at least $1 million in investable assets aren't sweating it, their financial planners say. And there are lessons for more modest investors in how to best approach a bear market. "Most of our clients, they're just rolling with what is happening, and they’re making adjustments that I don't view as significant," says Tim Speiss, tax partner at EisnerAmper's Personal Wealth Advisors Group. "No one is reacting as if we are in a crisis environment...They’re of the view—as are we—that this is all going to be transient." Here are some takeaways for all investors. Keep following the plan There's no getting around it: The best time to prepare for a bear market is before it happens. Sophisticated investors do this by diversifying their assets—real estate, fixed income, equities, and cash all play a role—and keeping their investing timeline in mind. If they won't need to draw down their assets for years or even decades, there's no need for panic. "There’s a lot of fear and negative sentiment out there, and those who are particularly savvy are thinking long-term, not really about the next six to 12 months," says Paul Deer, certified financial planner at Personal Capital. It's also likely they've already rebalanced their asset allocation to have more cash on hand. "Typically when people are euphoric or overly optimistic about what’s going on in the market—that’s when you want to take a little money off the table, and you want to create a slightly larger cash position," says Florina Shutin, managing director and investment adviser at Wells Fargo. "You want the cash on the side when the dip happens. Because...it’s just harder to predict when it will happen and for how long." Reassess your positions That said, bear markets can often, well, lay bare what needs to change in your portfolio. Perhaps you're realizing that your asset allocation is more aggressive than you're actually comfortable with, or that you're missing exposure to an important segment. On the flip side, you might find that coupled with decades-high inflation, now is a good time to explore putting more of your asset allocation into equities so that you can at least try to keep up with cost of living, says Deer. He and Shutin also say it's a good time to look into alternative investments, which can include hedge funds, private markets, real estate, and digital assets like cryptocurrencies. In fact, a recent EY survey found 30% of high-net-worth individuals—and 81% of ultra-high-net-worth individuals, with over $30 million in assets—invest in alternatives. These investments have typically been available only to investors with certain minimum investment requirements. But more and more financial companies are expanding options for the average investor as well, says Shutin. That doesn't mean you should take wild swings, or make big investments in unpredictable assetslike Dogecoin. But a little diversity can help. "High-net-worth investors like shiny things as much as anyone else," says David Waddell, CEO and chief investment strategist at Waddell and Associates. "They're prone to make mistakes too, but they limit their exposure to speculative wagers. They'll gamble, but they'll do it with much less enthusiasm." Consider a Roth conversion One strategy high-net-worth individuals consider during a down market is a Roth IRA conversion. That involves transferring all or part of the balance of an existing traditional IRA into a Roth. This is a good time because the tax implications of selling now, when account balances have taken a dip, are lower than they might be in the future. And your gains grow tax-free from here on out. Converting to a Roth IRA is a nuanced strategy—there's no single right answer that applies to everyone. If you have a financial adviser, it's a good conversation to have. "The best way to think about it is: Are you in a lower tax bracket today than you would be in the future?" says Deer. "Your traditional IRA assets are at a lower value today than they were six months ago. You can ultimately translate that to the same growth but with lower tax consequence today." This is an especially attractive strategy for those who plan to pass on some of their assets to children or grandchildren. While traditional IRAs require minimum distributions starting at age 72, Roth IRAs do not. "If you have legacy planning as part of your financial plan, you might put more emphasis on the conversion," says Deer. "They could inherit a Roth IRA, and you could extend the duration of tax-free growth on those assets." Optimize tax-loss harvesting Another tax strategy high-net-worth individuals may employ is tax-loss harvesting, says Shutin. That is when investors sell investments in the red, and use those losses to offset realized gains. That trims their overall capital gains tax bill. "The easiest way to make money right now is to book those tax losses," says Waddell. For example, you might be able to sell off an S&P 500 index fund from one company, and buy a similar one from another, says Shutin. "Pretty much any investment you’ve made in the last year is possibly down and has an unrealized loss," she says. "So this is actually a fantastic time to reevaluate your portfolio and do a lot of tax harvesting." This strategy doesn't make sense for everyone. You don't want to miss out on potential gains, for example, just to get a tax break. It's best to consult with a financial adviser before making this move. Buy, buy, buy Of course, investors might be happier when the market is on the upswing. But a bear market also represents an opportunity: to buy shares at a "discounted" rate that then compound in value. High-net-worth individuals take advantage of the gloomy market sentiment, says Shutin. "When everyone is running, that’s when you should buy," she says. If you're nervous, it's best to think about where you'll be at this time next year, says Waddell. Consider: Will COVID be advancing or declining by then? Will supply chains be more or less clogged? Will inflation be rising or falling? "Usually when I'm super pessimistic or anxious that’s the time to buy, so you should buy today," he says. "If we can zoom out and transport ourselves six months in the future, I’m not as agitated...It’s a little bit of a hold-your-nose environment. Turn your TVs off for six months, and I’ll see you at Christmas."" MY COMMENT There is a reason that high net worth individuals are.....high net worth individuals. They make the right moves and money decisions. I totally agree: Just ride it out.....after all you have already made it through six months of losses. Keep following your plan. Make any needed changes for risk tolerance and portfolio risk....but....make it a lateral move into other stocks and funds to keep market exposure. If you are retired or keeping some percentage of money in cash......replenish that cash at market highs. Convert any IRA money to a ROTH....if you can. Take any tax losses you can......if the investment is something that you plan to sell and reinvest.......but....dont let taxes conntrol your investment decisions. Dont take losses to JUST get a tax loss. Plow as much into the markets as you can for as long as this downturn lasts.....for the LONG TERM.
A really nice day for my particular mix of stocks today. I was GREEN....to say the least. I also got in a big beat of the SP500 by 1.81%. I also moved my year to date loss down to......25.3%. My only loser today was Honeywell.
It was quite a turn-around today in the markets. Stocks end mixed as tech shares lead rebound: Nasdaq adds 1.7%, S&P 500 ekes out gains https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-lives-updates-july-5-122300244.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks came well off the day's lows, and the Nasdaq turned positive Tuesday afternoon, even as concerns over the potential for a deeper economic downturn persisted among investors. By market close, the S&P 500 edged up by 0.2% after falling as much as 2.2% earlier in the session. The Dow ended lower by about 130 points, or 0.4%, to close at 30,967.45. The Nasdaq Composite was up by nearly 1.8% after spending the morning in negative territory. Energy prices also came under renewed pressure, with West Texas intermediate crude oil futures dipping below $100 per barrel and posting its largest decline since March at session lows. Treasury yields extended last week's slide, and the benchmark 10-year yield fell below 2.9%. "Stock prices are down. Treasury yields are down. Oil prices are down. Corporate credit spreads are wider. The dollar exchange rate is higher. This is a recession trade," Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in an email Tuesday morning. "There is no other way of describing it." Concerns over inflation and whether higher prices might catalyze a downturn in the economy or spur the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further at the expense of economic growth have kept a weight on equities even amid short-lived bear market rallies. Federal Reserve officials have so far maintained the contral bank's hawkish stance, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in public remarks last week that there was “no guarantee” the Fed could avoid a hard landing. The S&P 500 has so far posted its worst start to a year since 1970, and the Dow since 1962, with each of the major averages sliding by double-digit percentages since the start of 2022. The U.S. economy has recently shown some signs of softening, with consumer confidence sliding and short-term expectations sinking to a near decade-low in addition to spending falling for the first time this year in May. "Last week's data performance, including a downward revision to Q1 GDP and evidence of sustained deceleration in consumer spending, suggests the U.S. economy is clearly losing momentum in the face of soaring inflation and tightening financial conditions," Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sam Bullard wrote in a note Tuesday. Further critical economic data is due out this week, including Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Economists are looking for a more tepid 275,000 jobs to have come back in June, which would mark a sharp slowdown from the prior month's 390,000. And the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%, for just a tick above February 2020's pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. And on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is poised to release the minutes of its June meeting, which set the stage for the central bank's first 75 basis point rate hike since 1994. "The current hawkish tone should be pervasive throughout following the actions of a stepped-up 75 basis point federal funds rate hike and the explicit commitment to continue tightening aggressively until officials see 'clear and convincing' signs that inflation is coming down to target," Wells Fargo's Bullard stated. "We will be on the lookout for clues as to what inflation evidence officials are monitoring to help make that call."" MY COMMENT I dont know why anyone in the world would care about a recession. We have been in one for a while now......and....the simple fact of being in one changes nothing. it is simply a.....LABEL. The sooner we get into recession the better in my opinion. We are already seeing the Ten Year Yield back near historic 100 year lows. We are also seeing oil dropping fast along with lumber and many other commodities. Looks good to me....I love it.
As has been mentioned above, good fight back from the dismal showing early this morning. I was a bit surprised to see it come back. I guess we are so used to seeing the red we sort of expect it at this point and then we squeak out a green day or two and it catches us by surprise. We will take it any chance we can though.
The 'CHIP" industry continues to be a hot topic and are found in many investment portfolio's to some degree. With very contested and fierce global competition at play, its good to see the US trying to stay in the game. Maybe we will see more development here in the US. This particular sector has very large implications from military, national security, automobile, and just technology overall. This is one (of many) reasons why the US/Taiwan relationship aggravates China. GlobalWafers Selects Sherman, Texas for New Semiconductor Silicon Wafer Site. Sherman (Grayson County) – Hsinchu, Taiwan-based global semiconductor silicon wafer company, GlobalWafers, recently announced that it plans to build a $5 billion state-of-the-art 300-millimeter silicon wafer factory at its Sherman location. The facility will be the first of its kind in the country in over 20 years with construction expected to start in September . This 300-millimeter greenfield investment is consistent with the company’s announcement of expansion. The investment could also support as many as 1,500 jobs as 300-millimeter silicon wafers are the starting material for all advanced semiconductor fabrication sites (or fabs), including recently announced U.S, expansions by GlobalFoundries, Intel, Samsung, Texas Instruments and TSMC. Most of these wafers are currently manufactured in Asia, forcing the U.S. semiconductor industry to highly rely on imported silicon wafers. This investment will represent the first new silicon wafer facility in the U.S. in over two decades and close a critical semiconductor supply chain gap. GlobalWafers Chairman/CEO Doris Hsu stated: “With the global chips shortage and ongoing geopolitical concerns, GlobalWafers is taking this opportunity to address the United States semiconductor supply chain resiliency issue by building an advanced node, state-of-the-art, 300-millimeter silicon wafer factory. Instead of importing wafers from Asia, GlobalWafers USA (GWA) will produce and supply wafers locally thereby reducing significant carbon footprint benefitting both customers and GWA in the current ESG tide worldwide.” “Sherman has spent years building a business-friendly climate and laying the groundwork to support large employers,” said David Plyer, mayor of Sherman. “Now, for the second time in less than a year, that investment has paid huge dividends. GlobalWafers’ decision to locate their state-of-the-art, semiconductor silicon wafer facility in Sherman will meet a critical industry need and cement our city’s status as a center of high-tech manufacturing, not only in Texas, but across the country. I want to thank GlobalWafers for their investment in Sherman and for the trust they have placed in our local leadership. This project will provide profound benefits for our citizens, our city and Grayson County for decades to come.” Production from the first fab is anticipated as early as 2025, according to the company. GlobalWafers will use the new North Texas site to address the silicon wafer shortage, which has contributed to the semiconductor or “chips” crisis. The company’s business is unprecedented and continues to sell out future output, including the volumes anticipated from this new site. “This announcement is another critical step in addressing the U.S. and global chips supply issue,” commented Sherman-based GlobalWafers President Mark England. “Moreover, in order to level the global incentive playing field, the impending passage of the US CHIPS Act will be instrumental in ensuring ongoing semiconductor investments of this kind. With the proper level of federal incentives, I can envision the City of Sherman developing into the complete semiconductor ecosystem to fully support the growing U.S. semiconductor industry.” By Art Benavidez|July 1st, 2022|Construction Preview, Feature Story
A MILD open today. I am sure the averages will pick up their movement......one way or another.....by mid day. We will have earnings coming soon. That will no doubt be the big event of the month of July. The guidance will be the key for short term stocks. I assume that most companies will be doing the usual rope-a-dope on guidance and it will mostly be to the negative side of the scale. Not a good thing for the short term markets. I am sure the micro-second-traders will make a fortune as stocks are uniformly punished after reporting....regardless of their earnings. The other BIG EVENT that is fast approaching is the 20 for 1 Google stock split. It will happen next week on July 15.
Speaking of earnings. Earnings estimates barely budge despite growing recession concerns: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...cession-concerns-morning-brief-100043038.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate hike since 1994, Wall Street was quick to pencil in increased risks of a recession — but analysts left corporate profit estimates largely intact. Once those estimates are revised downward, some markets observers argue, it could spark further volatility in the ongoing bear market. Consensus Wall Street analysts shaved down their second-quarter bottom-up earnings per share estimate for the S&P 500 by just 1.1% between March 31 and June 30, according to data from FactSet published Friday. The current estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at 4.1% for the second quarter, which if realized, would be the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2020. The size of that downward revision is much smaller than the reductions seen during typical quarters in recent history: Over the past five years, earnings estimates have been brought down by 2.4%, on average, during a quarter. And over the past 10 and 15 years, these decreases have averaged 3.3% and 4.7%, respectively. Furthermore, analysts actually raised their earnings estimates for the second half of this year. FactSet noted that the bottom-up earnings per share estimate for the third quarter of 2022 rose by 0.4% between the ends of March and June and was left unchanged for the fourth quarter. “So far, the ongoing bear market is the first of the millennium to feature rising earnings estimates," Jason Pride, Glenmede’s chief investment officer for private wealth, wrote in a note Tuesday. "In each of the other three, the peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 could be attributed to a mix of falling earnings estimates and falling valuation multiples (e.g. price-to-earnings ratios) that are applied to those estimates." The stock selloff of 2022 so far has been driven primarily by valuation pressure as the Federal Reserve has hiked rates and inflation has remained elevated, rather than by a weakening in estimated or actual earnings. We’ve discussed this issue in the Morning Brief about a month ago. Since then, the outlook for the economy has markedly changed, with firms from Goldman Sachs to Citi calling for a greater likelihood of a near-term recession, purchasing managers’ indices deteriorating, and consumer sentiment sinking as inflation has held up. Crude oil prices have also slid as the recession trade ramped — which may weigh on the profits of energy companies that had seen some of the most marked upward earnings revisions earlier this year. What hasn’t yet changed has been the consensus outlook on how S&P 500 companies profits will in aggregate be affected by a souring backdrop. And once these estimates begin to reflect those economic concerns, that could make the case for stocks to take another leg lower, Pride argued. “As the macroeconomic environment becomes more challenging, earnings estimates may face negative revisions,” Pride said. “As a result, the ongoing bear market may have further room to fall as cheapening valuations begin to share the reins with earnings in pushing risk assets lower, justifying an underweight risk posture.” Pride isn’t the only one to suggest as much. BlackRock strategists in June held calls to buy the dip as the S&P 500 tumbled into a bear market, asserting, in part, that there could be more downside for stocks since investors hadn’t fully appreciated the negative impact inflation would have on corporate profit margins and earnings. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin recently argued similarly. “Consensus profit margin forecasts have further to fall which will likely lead to downward EPS revisions whether or not the economy falls into recession,” Kostin said in a note published Friday. “Assuming no change in expected revenues, the margin compression we model would reduce the median stock’s expected 2023 EPS growth from +10% to 0%.” Chris Wolfe, chief investment officer at First Republic Private Wealth Management, also sees the case for earnings estimates to be brought in. However, he suggested such a move was perhaps “not overly bearish” for stocks that are already off to their worst start in 52 years. “I think we need some meaningful downward adjustments in analysts' earnings estimates," Wolfe told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. “They're just sky high, and it does not comport well with the economic data that seems to be coming out, because we're slowing down. Now, that's not overly bearish, because, remember, prices have already done a lot of the adjusting. We just need some capitulation in analyst and corporate expectations. They're just way too high.”" MY COMMENT I suspect that earnings will be impacted this time around by what is happening in the general economy. I dont think it will be severe.....just some general weakness. My view is that the current earnings that start this month......and the next quarter also..... will be a bottom for earnings in this "recession". But even though they may be mildly weak....I dont foresee that they will be bad.
I cant see this little article but I know what it is saying without being able to read the whole thing. A Rude Awakening Is Ahead for Young Employees A recession will hand the bargaining power to their bosses. https://www.wsj.com/articles/rude-a...tion-layoffs-job-hopping-security-11656942280 Here is the message.....at least from me: Wake up people.....the days of employees having POWER are about to end.....especially in better corporate jobs. Companies are going to cut back hiring. It is happening already. It is going to snowball. Enjoy your power because it will soon end. In addition.......you want to work from home? Ok. You now have to compete with anyone anywhere in the world for your job. As an employer I can hire someone in India or another country way cheaper than I can hire...."you"....here in the USA. No medial, no Social Security, no 401K, no benefits, lower wages. Add in the millions......yes over 1MILLION.....white collar foreign workers that flow into corporate jobs every year under all the various visa and college student programs and....."YOU".....have no power. To make things worse......the technology revolution will continue for decades to come. Many jobs are going to be eliminated. They will be performed by AI, robots, and technology. "YOU".....will not be needed. It will all be one of those....."NEW NORMAL'S".....that people love to talk about. Dont even get me started on the topic of DEFLATION that this technological revolution and irrelevance of human workers will lead to.
I see very little about it.....but....a key topic for the markets today will be the release of the FED minutes......and the media obsession with the language and whatever speculation can be drawn from the document. Here is a pretty good summary of today in the markets. Stock market news lives updates: Stocks drift as investors remain on recession watch https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-lives-updates-july-6-22-104759071.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks traded mixed Wednesday morning, with equities struggling for direction as the risk of a recession remained top of mind for many investors. The S&P 500 opened in slightly positive territory before dipping into the red after fluctuating between small gains and losses during the pre-market session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite saw similar action. Crude oil prices held below $100 per barrel after falling below that threshold for the first time since mid-May on Tuesday, as investors increasingly bet that a downturn might weigh on demand for energy. Bitcoin prices rose back above $20,000. And Treasury yields climbed across the curve, though the benchmark 10-year yield edged just above 2.82% to hover near its lowest level in about six weeks. Prospects of a deep economic downturn have stoked ongoing volatility in markets, as investors weigh whether inflation and a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle will curb growth to the point of tipping the economy into a recession. And some key economic data, from consumer sentiment to spending and purchasing managers' indices, have each softened or turned lower in recent prints. "A broad-based slowdown in overall consumer spending has already been underway this year, led by deterioration in the goods category, with services providing little in the way of offset," Barclays' Jonathan Miller wrote in a recent note. And as sentiment indexes from the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers decline, he added, that "may indicate that a more precautionary mindset might be setting in, which would make households more inclined to hoard excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. Whether — and if so, when and how deeply — a recession takes hold has become a key question for market watchers and has left the stock market languishing in a bear market. "For the last several months, the market's been watching the economy choke on inflation," Matt Kishlansky, GenTrust Head of Asset Allocation, told Yahoo Finance Live. "There's really no consensus between the stock market and the bond market as to what we do in the interim and where we're headed." In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield has slid from a more than decade high of over 3.4% in mid-June to below 2.9%. And Fed Funds futures have shown investors are now pricing in a lower terminal rate for the Federal Reserve — or the rate at which the Fed will stop hiking short-term interest rates — than they were just a couple weeks ago. "So if you try to reconcile those two numbers, the bond market's telling you that before the ink is even dry on the last interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve is going to have to start cutting rates in order to deal with the economic fallout from those rate hikes," Kishlansky added. "[The] bond market's, in essence, saying that a recession is a fait accompli at this point. The stock market's not so sure."" MY COMMENTS In other words......we continue in the same environment we have been stuck in for the past six months. The nice thing about the second half this year is that we should at some point over the next six months hit a bottom......at least for the iconic big cap companies. That does not mean that we will immediately head back up in the markets. We may bump along the bottom for a while.....but at least the pain should stabilize for investors. For me......at least up to now.....I have been staying in a range for the past months. That range is from a year to date LOSS of about 18% on the low end........and.....a year to date loss of about 28% on the high end. If I can stay in that range.....at worst.....over the rest of this economic and business event.....I would consider that good news. Of course there is RISK to slip out of that range going forward. NOTHING will be clear until the point that we are looking back in hindsight. SO......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
I just looked for the firs time today. AMAZINGLY.....across all my accounts.....I had a gain of $41. So basically DEAD FLAT. Very shallow gains and very shallow losses from stock to stock. A market with no confidence or direction today. the close is very much up in the air right now.
Here is the economic data of the day.....which of course.....no one will care about. Job openings fell in May but still outnumber available workers by almost 2 to 1 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Job openings totaled 11.25 million for May, a considerable drop from the upwardly revised 11.68 million in April, according to the Labor Department’s JOLTS report. There were 5.95 million people counted as unemployed in the month, meaning there were 1.9 openings per every available worker, still around historical highs. The ISM services index for June fell slightly to 55.3, but that was better than the estimate. Job openings fell sharply in May but still far outnumbered the level of people looking for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Available positions totaled 11.25 million for the month, a considerable drop from the upwardly revised 11.68 million in April. As a share of the labor force, the rate of vacancies fell to 6.9% from 7.2%, according to the bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Despite the decline, the level of job openings was better than the 11.04 million estimate from FactSet. There were 5.95 million people counted as unemployed in the month, meaning there were 1.9 openings per every available worker, still around historical highs. Quits also declined slightly, falling to 4.27 million as the so-called Great Resignation abated. The level of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs has soared in the Covid era, a sign of enhanced mobility during a time of extreme labor shortages. Federal Reserve officials watch the JOLTS report closely for signs of labor market slack. The U.S. unemployment rate in May was 3.6%, just above where it was prior to the pandemic. However, there are 440,000 fewer Americans at work now than there were in February 2020. Layoffs nudged higher during the month to 1.39 million after hitting a series low in April from data going back to December 2000. Job openings declined sharply in manufacturing and professional and business services while increasing in retail trade and leisure and hospitality. Hires edged lower, falling to 6.49 million, with the rate unchanged at 4.3%. Markets will get a more up-to-date view of the labor market Friday when the BLS releases the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 250,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate. In other economic news Wednesday, the ISM Services Index for June registered a 55.3 reading, indicative of the percentage of firms seeing expansion. That was better than the 51.4 Dow Jones estimate through a deceleration from the 55.9 in May. The employment index fell to 47.4, a 2.8-point drop and indicative of contraction. The headline number was helped by an 8.5-point jump in backlogs, which rose to 60.5. Prices edged lower to 80.1, still well in expansion territory as inflation runs at a more than 40-year high." MY COMMENT My personal unsupported view is that most of this data is unreliable and illusory. I dont believe there are over 11MILLION jobs available. I also dont believe that the 5.95MILLION people looking for work is accurate either. My guess is that the number of available jobs is actually much lower.....especially....jobs that anyone wants. As to the number of job seekers......I believe it is much lower than reported. My view is that this jobs and labor data is totally unreliable and does NOT reflect reality. Of course like much economic data.......as an investor in particular businesses.....it is not really relevant to me as a long term investor.
Definitely some disconnect going on with the employer/employee struggle and the tug of war going on between them. Here are some very brief stats from a larger article about some of the issues. If this is presumed accurate, I think the "flexible schedule" holdouts may not find a seat at the table. There is no way a majority of employers are going to be able to do that. Job Market Difficulties Continue In 2022 As Employers Fail To Meet Job-Seekers’ Expectations. Key Findings 45% of employees and 44% of employers say navigating the job market is more difficult now than it was before the pandemic Job-seekers list ‘flexible schedules’ as their #1 priority. Only 1/3 of employers give workers the option to create their own schedules 59% of job-hunters want new jobs with higher pay. 40% of employers have raised salaries Workers are also seeking jobs with good health insurance and retirement benefits, but only about 1 in 5 employers have started offering or improved benefits in these areas
YEP.....Smokie. Another GREEN day. I like how the markets are fighting back recently and refusing to just roll over. Perhaps we are at a bit of a bottom....at least for now. At least the relentless week after week losses appear to have been stopped. We are now going to face erratic week to week markets. Obviously the direction is still negative in general......but.....I like what is happening now as we search for a bottom.
And speaking of GREEN.......I was there today. another day of racking up some account gains so that I will have a cushion for the next round of inevitable down days. PLUS......I beat the SP500 today by 0.54%. I was able to improve my year to date LOSS today to........(-25.20%). HUMP DAY is out of the way. Wee now move toward the end of another week.
