Looks like a risk on day, bonds yields, stocks and bitcoin, etc. all moving higher Have been watching XBI, FXI and ARKK, etc. for awhile and finally got in XBI at $80.91 before the closing bell yesterday, pretty happy with the move today so far Might get in BITI before the close today
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to you all! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, July the 8th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Friday, July the 8th, 2022! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarketChat/comments/vu9yzd/78_fridays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 7/8/22 - Jobs Day Fri, Jul 8, 2022 US futures have been negative most of the morning ahead of today's jobs report, but they have been improving from earlier levels, and the Dow is even indicated to open slightly higher as we type this. This is all subject to change, though, as the June employment report will be released shortly. Expectations are for an increase of 268K, which would be the lowest monthly reading since the start of 2021, but the real focus will likely be on average hourly earnings which are expected to increase by 0.3%. Outside of equities, US treasury yields are modestly lower, but the 2s10s yield curve remains inverted for the fourth straight day. Crude oil and gold are basically flat, and copper is down nearly 2%. With a good deal of emphasis being placed on today's employment report, we wanted to take a quick look at how the headline payrolls report has come in relative to expectations over the last year. In the last 12 monthly reports, the headline number has exceeded expectations seven times and missed forecasts five times. Looking at the chart, though, the margin of the misses has been much larger than the magnitude of the beats. In four of the five misses, the actual reading came in more than 250K below forecasts, and the overall average miss was 291K. In the seven beats, however, the average beat was just 143K or less than half of the magnitude of the average miss. Applying the average miss to today's report, if the June report missed expectations by the 'average' amount of the last year, it would be a negative reading. A lot of ifs there, but just helps to put things in perspective.
Overall a very good week for the market, a little surprising to see stocks were able to rally along with the bonds yields
Gooooooooood Friday evening and a happy start to the weekend to all! The market week ahead thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/vuldng/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's most anticipated earnings calendar from EW has yet to be published. Check back in here sometime over this weekend as I'll be adding the earnings calendar as a new post here once it is officially out (typically on Saturday morning). In the meantime, here are some of the the highest vol earnings for next week. Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend and here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to you all! And welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, July the 11th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 7/11/22 - Slow Start to a Busy Week Mon, Jul 11, 2022 After a nice week to kick off the quarter, we are seeing some giveback this morning as all of the major US averages are indicated to open lower. Along with weaker stock prices, crude oil, gold, and crypto are joining the downward bias. Treasuries, however, have bucked the trend with the 10-year yield trading down near 3%. This week will be an important one for the markets with some key economic data (CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales) as well as the start of earnings season, but it's starting off slow as there are no significant economic reports and the only earnings report of note is from Pepsi (PEP) after the close. Last week was a pretty good one for US equities with the S&P 500 up nearly 2% and the Nasdaq up over 4%. Even after the gains, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 failed to close above their 50-day moving averages (DMA). The Nasdaq is just fractionally below that level, and the S&P 500 is over 1.5% below its 50-DMA. While the Nasdaq wasn't able to re-take its 50-DMA, it does appear to have broken a downtrend that has been in place since the Spring. The S&P 500, on the other hand, also remains below its downtrend from the Spring, so it still has more work to do on the upside. Just as the 50-DMA tends to act as support in uptrends, it tends to act as a headwind during downtrends, so this week should prove to be a critical one as we get deeper into Q3. A failure on the part of the indices to break above their respective downtrends or reclaim their short-term moving averages could set the market up for a long earnings season. Last week's rally was dominated by the 'trash' as the year's three worst performing sectors were the leaders last week. Consumer Discretionary rallied 6.5% over the last five trading days (July 1st through last Friday), while Technology and Communication Services both surged 4%. Even after these gains, all three sectors are still down well over 20% YTD. On the downside, it was generally the year's winners that lagged last week as Energy and Utilities both experienced fractional declines. One outlier to the trend was Materials. It was the worst-performing sector over the last five trading days and it is also the fifth worst-performing sector YTD, and one of just two oversold sectors.
A red day to start the week Should be an interesting week with the CPI and the bank earnings later this week, also seems like a lot of economic data coming out on Friday
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to you all! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, July the 12th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 7/12/22 - Euro Not Gonna Believe This Tue, Jul 12, 2022 As the European economy continues to crater given rampant inflation, geopolitical instability, and labor/supply issues, the collapse in the bloc's currency continued overnight as the euro reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since December 2002. While the round number generates a lot of headlines, it really means little in the broader picture of a weak European economy and what looks to be an even weaker outlook in the months ahead. Over here in the US, things don't seem all that much better. The week has started off slowly in terms of economic data, but this morning's report from the NFIB on small business optimism came in much weaker than expected at 89.5 versus estimates for a reading of 92.5. Would you believe that sentiment among small businesses is now lower than it was at any point during the COVID lockdowns? Admittedly, the NFIB survey does tend to lean Republican, so with Democrats in control of DC, it's not a complete surprise to see sentiment so weak. Given the macro backdrop, though, you can't fault small business owners for being pessimistic. The last time the headline index from the NFIB was as low as it is now was in January 2013 at the beginning of President Obama's second term. With the NFIB report behind us, the focus will now shift to tomorrow's CPI. Here is a surprising aspect of recent market events. With what seems like a near-constant focus that the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) gets, we were surprised that given the near 7% decline in the ETF yesterday there wasn't more attention given to the fact that it had one of its 15 worst days since its inception in late 2016. The chart below shows the performance of ARKK since the start of 2017, and we have included red dots to show each of the 15 largest daily percentage declines in the ETF's history. In the five-plus years that the ETF has been trading, all fifteen of the largest daily percentage declines occurred in either 2020 or 2022. Even more surprising is the fact that seven of the fifteen largest declines have all occurred since the start of May. What does it mean when extreme moves become the norm?
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, July the 12th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/vxaau2/712_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
CPI tomorrow, commodity prices have moved lower lately but it probably won't show up until we get the CPI number for July next month. Anyway the number tomorrow will be interesting to watch nonetheless
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to you all! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, July the 13th, 2022.
Investing.com on Twitter: "*FED'S BOSTIC: 'EVERYTHING IS IN PLAY' WHEN ASKED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF 100 BPS JULY RATE HIKE https://t.co/7bYtOk6WUW" / Twitter Are we going to get a 100 bps hike
Maybe -- I'm not historian, but that seems like it would be epic. Regardless, given how equally-epic the commodities rollover has been (which should, in time, bring inflation down), I suspect today's CPI = peak inflation.
