Here is more detail: "Tesla reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results. The stock is up about 4% after hours. Earnings per share (EPS): $2.27 (adjusted) vs $1.81 expected, according to Refinitiv Revenue: $16.93 billion, vs. $17.1 billion expected, according to Refinitiv Automotive gross margin came in at 27.9%, down from 32.9% last quarter and 28.4% a year ago. The company generated $344 million in automotive regulatory credits revenue in the second quarter, the company said in its shareholder deck. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/tesla-tsla-earnings-q2-2022-.html
And....a bit more. "July 20 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) on Wednesday reported a rise in quarterly profit, as a string of price increases on its best-selling vehicles helped offset production challenges, sending its shares up 4% in extended trading. Tesla has raised prices of its cars several times this year to cope with higher costs of lithium used in batteries and aluminum used for the body, along with other raw materials. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has, however, said Tesla would drop prices when inflation cools. Total revenue fell to $16.93 billion in the second quarter from $18.76 billion a year earlier, ending its streak of posting record revenue in recent quarters, as it struggled to meet demand for its electric cars due to a shutdown of its Shanghai factory and production challenges at new plants. Analysts were expecting revenue of $17.10 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Net income was $2.26 billion for the latest quarter, or $1.95 per share, compared with $1.14 billion, or $1.02 per share, a year earlier. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...e-estimates-production-challenges-2022-07-20/ MY COMMENT I am taking this as an earnings success.....especially in light of the financial news DOOM&GLOOM stories that I have seen over the past weeks. Obviously with shares up by 4% that is how immediate investors are taking it. It will be interesting to see what the take is after all the data is digested and kicked around over the next few hours. As I shareholder.......I like it.
HERE is my final word on TESLA. Tesla grows revenue 42%, but automotive margins decline https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/tesla-tsla-earnings-q2-2022-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $2.27 per share on $16.93 billion in revenue in Q2 2022. Automotive margins decreased from last quarter and a year ago, impacted by inflation and more competition for EV components. Tesla reported earnings after the bell, and the results sent the stock up slightly after hours. Earnings per share (EPS): $2.27 (adjusted) vs $1.81 expected, according to Refinitiv Revenue: $16.93 billion, vs. $17.1 billion expected, according to Refinitiv Automotive gross margin came in at 27.9%, down from 32.9% last quarter and 28.4% a year ago, impacted by inflation and more competition for battery cells and other components that go into electric vehicles. Automotive revenues made up $14.6 billion of the company’s total, with $1.47 billion coming from services and other revenue, and $866 million from the company’s energy segment. The company generated $344 million in automotive regulatory credits revenue in the second quarter, the company said in its shareholder deck. That’s a $10 million or nearly 3% decline from the same period in 2021. Tesla has grown its charging infrastructure more than its store and service centers, reporting 709 store and service locations for the quarter and 3,971 Supercharger locations (with 36,165 total Supercharger connections) in the second quarter. Those numbers represented 19% growth in store and service center locations year over year and a 34% growth in the number of charging locations. The company offered limited detail about its investments and sales of cryptocurrency, writing, “As of the end of Q2, we have converted approximately 75% of our Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency. Conversions in Q2 added $936M of cash to our balance sheet.” Tesla made waves among crypto enthusiasts when it announced in early 2021 that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. With two new factories now standing in Texas and outside of Berlin in Germany, Tesla has kept its soft guidance for “50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries,” over a “multi-year horizon.” Tesla still counts its hotly anticipated Cybertruck (announced in Nov. 2019), electric Semi truck (unveiled in Nov. 2017,) updated Roadster concept (also unveiled in Nov. 2017), and other speculative projects like the humanoid robot as “in development.” Early this month, Tesla reported vehicle deliveries of 254,695 electric cars for the period ending June 30, 2022, showing 27% growth from the year-ago quarter, but an 18% decrease sequentially. Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales Tesla discloses. Its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles comprised 93% of those deliveries. Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine and Covid outbreaks in China exacerbated ongoing semiconductor and parts shortages, along with other supply chain snags. Covid restrictions in Shanghai forced Tesla to temporarily suspend or limit production at its factory there during the second quarter of 2022. CEO Elon Musk also lamented the high costs of starting up production at new factories in Austin, Texas and Grünheide in Brandenburg, Germany. During an interview with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, a company-recognized fan club, Musk said the two new factories “are gigantic money furnaces.” The CEO also announced headcount cuts in June. On the brighter side, Tesla recently marked a milestone with an employee posting on LinkedIn this week that the company surpassed production of 2 million vehicles at its Fremont, California factory." MY COMMENT This is......good enough. Other sites are calling this an earnings "beat" and an earnings "top". The question is......will this news drive a continuation of this little RALLY tomorrow? I could see some profit taking happening.....or.....some people taking the recent gains over the past 30 days as an opportunity to get out of the markets. To me.....that would be a HUGE mistake.
The impact of technology is going to SEVERELY impact jobs over the next 20+ years here in the USA. Here is Ford eliminating over 25% of their entire workforce starting this summer. Ford may lay off 8,000 workers in shift to EV production: report The company employs about 31,000 salaried workers in the US https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/ford-lay-off-8000-workers-shift-ev-production MY COMMENT We are going to see this happen across all aspects of our economy. Where this leads is called .......DEFLATION. What we are going to be left with when the smoke clears is only the service jobs that can not be done with robotics and the white collar jobs that can not be outsourced to computers or foreign workers. The disruption and stratification of the population and society will be EPIC. We will evolve into the basic science fiction movie situation where you have the ELITES.......a small number of people (bureaucrats) that serve them......and at the bottom everyone else trying to scrape out a living.
Markets are doing about what I expected to open today. After the BIG gains of the past couple of days we are due for a negative open as people pause, take profits, and pull back. The question will be whether the markets can come back over the day. I see that Tesla.....at least when I looked......was up nicely......no doubt based on their earnings yesterday.
Here is the first of two economic items today that "might" have some impact on the markets.....I actualy consider BOTH of them positive indicators. U.S. weekly jobless claims hit fresh 8-month high https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-weekly-jobless-claims-hit-124929678.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose for a third straight week last week to the highest in eight months, suggesting some cooling in the labor market amid tighter monetary policy and financial conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 for the week ended July 16 from a unrevised 244,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 applications for the latest week. With employment booming through the last year, claims fell to a near-record low in March and had been hovering around 230,000 since June before the previous week's increase to the highest since last November. Still, they remain below the level most economists see as presenting a threatening signal for the job market and economy more widely. There have been reports of layoffs in the interest rate-sensitive housing and manufacturing industries. Despite some loss of momentum, hiring has remained robust, with 372,000 jobs created in June and a broader measure of unemployment falling to a record low. Demand for labor remains fairly strong, as well. There were 11.3 million job openings at the end of May, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed person. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate by another 75 basis points at the end of this month, a call that was bolstered by annual consumer prices surging 9.1% in June, the largest increase since November 1981. The U.S. central bank has hiked its overnight interest rate by 150 basis points since March. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose by 51,000 to 1.384 million, the highest since April, during the week ending July 9, the claims report showed." MY COMMENT Personally......with nothing to back this up.....I dont think that the 11.3MILLION job openings really exist. I know there are a lot of available jobs at the low end of the economy....minimum wage.....but, I dont believe the job market is as strong as people think. I see major company after major company cutting jobs and hiring. I see this as a positive for stocks......as we move ahead in recession the FED will be less CRAZY with their rate increases. I do believe we need to normalize rates.....but we need to do so in a measured and consistent way that the markets can depend on.
Here is the second economic item......I had trouble finding this story on financial sites.....another good contrary indicator for stocks. Philly Fed Index Unexpectedly Slumps Further Into Negative Territory In July https://www.rttnews.com/3298233/phi...-further-into-negative-territory-in-july.aspx (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday showed regional manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted at a faster rate in the month of July. The Philly Fed said its current general activity index slumped to a negative 12.3 in July from a negative 3.3 in June, with a negative reading indicating a contraction in regional manufacturing activity. The continued decrease by the Philly Fed index came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to rebound to a positive 0.4. While a majority of firms reported no change in activity, 24 percent reported decreases in activity compared to the 12 percent that reported increases. The unexpected drop by the headline index also reflected an accelerated contraction in new orders, with the new orders index plunging to a negative 24.8 in July from a negative 12.4 in June. The number of employees index also slumped to 19.4 in July from 28.1 in June, hitting its lowest reading since May 2021. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed said the shipments index climbed to 14.8 in July from 10.8 in June, indicating a faster rate of growth. The report also showed a slowdown in the pace of price growth, as the prices paid index tumbled to 52.2 in July from 64.5 in June and the prices received index dove to 30.3 in July from 49.2 in June. Looking ahead, the Philly Fed said the future indicators suggest firms expect overall declines in activity and new orders but increases in shipments and employment over the next six months. The diffusion index for future general activity plunged to a negative 18.6 in July from a negative 6.8 in June, falling to its lowest reading since December 1979 A separate report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last Friday unexpectedly showed growth in regional manufacturing activity in the month of July. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index jumped to a positive 11.1 in July from a negative 1.2 in June. Economists had expected the index to edge down to a negative 2.0" MY COMMENT Yes we have been in a recession for a while now. This sort of data will keep the FED from being too wild and crazy. Good news for the markets.
As a former business owner....I TOTALLY agree with Elon Musk and other big businesses on this issue. Elon Musk says remote workers are just pretending to work. Turns out he’s (sort of) right https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-remote-workers-182113256.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“Remote work is no longer acceptable,” thundered Elon Musk in a leaked memo to Tesla staff in late May. The world’s richest man doubled down when he confirmed the memo’s authenticity on Twitter, writing that remote workers “should pretend to work somewhere else.” As it turns out, remote workers really are pretending to work quite a lot, but pretending to work is hard work. New data from Qatalag and GitLab puts a number on it: Knowledge workers waste an extra 67 minutes online each day doing menial tasks for the express purpose of proving to their managers and colleagues that they’re available and working. It’s taking a strain. The survey polled 2,000 knowledge workers and found that more than half of them (54%) reported feeling pressure to show their online status by replying to emails and Slack messages, adding comments to Google Docs, or updating project management tools. It’s a new twist in the developing saga of remote work, and it shows that escaping the culture of presenteeism isn’t as simple as escaping the (physical) office. ‘Digital presenteeism’ The report calls this “digital presenteeism.” It’s the remote version of traditional presenteeism, when workers stay at their desk for no reason other than to prove to their bosses they’re working. Digital presenteeism hinges on that same visibility—whether that means “responding to notifications, or sitting in Zoom meetings you don’t need to attend,” the report says. And, like office presenteeism, it doesn’t correlate to any better work output. The worries about maintaining active Slack status aren’t unfounded. Many CEOs besides Musk have been vocal about their belief in the superiority of in-person work. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon calls remote work “an aberration,” while remote work is seen as no match for the office when it comes to learning, growth, and creating upward mobility, according to Chris Merrill, CEO of capital market company Harrison Street. “It’s very important to get the younger employees in the office, collaborating and working hard,” he said. Seven in 10 people who work asynchronously—during the hours that work best for them, which are not necessarily when their colleagues are online—feel this pressure most acutely, reporting high levels of worry that people won’t recognize that they’re working. The stakes of empty presenteeism are considerably higher for workers hesitant to take time off when they need it, like sick people. According to a March report from global advisory firm WTW, people with long COVID are 54% more likely to engage in presenteeism, or show up at work when they’re not able to fully function, Fortune reported. It’s also not a concern limited to people with bosses; 68% of C-level executives reported feeling the same tug. This should be their signal to impart change; 63% of workers believe their company leaders “prefer a traditional culture with employees in the office.” This may be why they’re stressed to present themselves as fully online when they’re not in person; they may think that’s the next best thing. The additional 67 minutes workers report spending online every day just to avoid suspicion that they’re not working enough adds up quickly: to more than five and a half hours in a week. Worse: Those hours do nothing for the employee nor the company. During that extra time, only 25% of people said they were highly productive. This time would be better spent on almost anything else, but when it comes to producing quality work, flexibility trumps all. More than four in five respondents (81%) said they’re more productive and create higher-quality output when they’re able to work flexible hours, and agree that being online at certain times just for the sake of being online is counterproductive." MY COMMENT Work from home.....a career killer. And over the long term.....your jobs WILL be eliminated. This stuff is a total productivity killer. In the old days......a few years ago.....I could simply walk over to some other person ask them a quick question and move on with my job. now I have to either email, text or Zoom meeting them.......to ask the most simple question or get the most simple information. This work from home CRAP is making work totally complex and insane. There is NO WAY that remote work is as good as in person for training, corporate culture, mentoring, job advancement, etc, etc, etc. In the end employees pushing this stuff are.....SCREWING THEMSELVES.
The data shows that on average, employees are MORE productive in WFH environments. Obviously grain of salt because I can easily make anecdotal claims both ways. When I'm at work, I'm far more likely to get stuck in a half hour conversation with someone about how good the super bowl was last night, or what I think of the Bears NFL draft, or if I saw Will Smith slap Chris Rock. The data also finds that physical health, mental health, and lowered stress are more benefits of WFH. Obviously this is going to be employee dependent. Some people will be more effective, some will be less effective, and some will be equally effective. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanr...ss-of-hybrid-and-remote-work/?sh=58dc1e7259b2
Here is the short term markets today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks fall as ECB surprises with 0.50% rate hike https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-21-2022-112313147.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks tumbled Thursday following a slew of mixed earnings and a surprise rate hike from the European Central Bank. The benchmark S&P 500 index slid 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 300 points, or roughly 1% as of 10:30 a.m. ET. The tech-heavy Nasdaq edge down 0.6%. AT&T (T) shares fell as much as 10% despite report earnings that beat estimates after the company revealed a lowered outlook for annual free cash flow. Meanwhile, United Airlines (UAL) stock declined 9% after the company posted lower-than-expected second-quarter results as inflationary pressures drove higher operating expenses and fuel costs that bit into its profit. Another big development this morning came from across the Atlantic, with the ECB electing to raise interest rates by 0.50%, the first interest rate increase from the central bank since 2011 and its largest increase since 2000. Investors had expected the ECB to raised rates by 0.25% in Thursday's decision. Following this move, the euro was slightly stronger against the dollar, trading above 1.025 after having reached parity with the greenback earlier this month. Stateside, investors remain focused on whether stocks can rise for a third-straight day on Thursday after tech shares rallied during Wednesday's trading session. Tesla (TSLA) was in focus after reporting earnings following market close Wednesday that topped analyst estimates but said automotive gross margins fell from the previous quarter. Shares were up roughly 2% before the bell. “Only earnings truly matter; other issues are simply sidebars to that main narrative,” Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek research said in a Thursday morning note, adding that Fed policy, investor confidence, and events may shock the system and understanding them can provide helpful context. “Ultimately, however, stock prices fundamentally reflect the market’s best guess of sustainable future corporate earnings.” Europe also anticipated the restart of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline – the biggest single pipeline carrying gas from Russia to Germany – after the end of a planned pause for maintenance. On the domestic front, economic data showed the labor market continued to soften last week. The latest report on weekly filings for unemployment insurance showed 251,000 people filed first-time claims for unemployment last week, the most since November 2021." MY COMMENT Yes.....it is going to be all about earnings, earnings, earnings. Except for next week when the FED meets and does their 0.75% rate increase. I am sure the media will hype the potential for a rate surprise next week..........with little chance of it happening.
The EV industry is definitely going to have a large footprint over the coming years. As I have mentioned before, I think we need to have a more sound measured approach about it. At times it feels like we are trying to go too quickly. I realize from a company standpoint they have to start making moves because of the competitive and rapid development of the industry. I have seen some of the ambitious deadlines the governments have set for the transitions and I can't see us being able to do that. In fact, some of it is just plain silly to think such a massive shift is going to be accomplished in such a short time. The infrastructure and materials are going to require huge shifts and time. On a global scale the materials alone are controlled by some less than desirable countries. Supply chain issues may ease at some point, but then we will still have to navigate the geopolitical issues...and there will be many of those. We don't see those issues discussed often because the race to be first or corner the market over our competition can sometimes blind us to the obvious. Sure, this industry is going to expand and develop, but I think we are ignoring some very big issues early in this endeavor.
Just a quick jump in on yours and WXYZ conversation on the WFH....It's amazing to think about the conversations we are having today versus 3-5 years ago. The employer/employee dynamic has and is undergoing big changes. This tug of war between the two continues on the WFH issue, salaries, and other issues. There is a restructuring going on within this area and employees and employers are still trying to find their way through this adjustment.
Looks like we squeezed in another GREEN day. We need some of these right now for sure. Not a bad little run.
Okay so here is something for new investors starting a long term plan or maybe new to it. We have talked about this a lot in this thread and our boss WXYZ preaches it from the pulpit regularly...along with many others. IGNORE the short term noise. I have seen the media and so called experts the last few days squirming around and stuttering every time there is a GREEN day. They quickly acknowledge the "green" day and then go right into their gloom and doom predictions. What are they telling you that you do not already know? NOTHING. Here's the deal. We all know the current economic situation in general. High inflation, rising rates, employment issues, supply chain issues, global problems, lack of political leadership across the board, and the list could go on and on. We have went downhill since the beginning of the year marketwise. You already know all of this because we have been living it since it started. They are offering you nothing of value in your long term investing plan. Sure, you can keep up to date and follow the financial news and it can be interesting and entertaining to follow, but it is NOT a guide to investing. Are we out of the woods from an investing standpoint? No. Is there more bumps in the road ahead? Sure. Can we drop further? Yes. None of this should have any bearing on your long term plan. Sit tight for however long it takes. Concentrate on what you can control. The experience you will gain from this downturn is going to help you later when the next one comes. Long term investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Do not fall for all of the chatter about what you should be doing or changing.
I will add to the above post something that I have posted a few times lately. With all the totally DISMAL news of the first six months of the year and all the DOOM&GLOOM.........what do you think the average person would think about stocks over thee past month? WELL.......we are now Up in the SP500 by +6.22% over the past month. Lets look at some other time spans......that include most of but not all of the most horrific six month start to a year in a long time. For the past three months the SP500 is down by ONLY (-8.98%) For the past six months the SP500 is down by ONLY (-10.79%) Of course year to date is is down by (-16.10%) If you look at this the past THREE and SIX months are NOT in correction and are NOTHING to even give a second thought to. Much of the loss year to date is based on the initial few weeks of 2022. After that EXTREMELY dismal time period.....the rest of the year.......compliments of the recent gains......is NOT bad.
I had "stuff" to do today....so I left the markets to take care of themselves. It was nice to come back to GREAT GAINS in the averages today. My accounts were 100% GREEN today.....all ten positions.....especially TESLA. I also managed to beat the SP500 by 0.32% today.....as an added bonus. I dont usually list my year to date result that often......but I will say today it is at a loss of (-20.5%). I am listing this since I am right on the bubble of moving out of correction territory. The markets this week have been a breath of fresh air. Are you feeling it? I have one request for the markets tomorrow as we finish up the week.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.
This is a perfect little article for this year and a good lesson for investors. The Uncertainty Monster https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/the-uncertainty-monster/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Go to your favorite website, flip on the TV or radio, pick up a newspaper (!) and you will hear one word come up repeatedly: Uncertainty. “There’s more uncertainty than ever.” There is uncertainty everywhere! There is a lot of uncertainty over the state of the stock market – Is the bear market over? Is this rally for real? How much worse can this get? What of earnings? Stocks are down, bonds are down, is there any place to hide? So much market uncertainty… What about this economy? It is so uncertain! Will we have a recession or are we in one now? If we are, how bad will it get? What about inflation: Is it transitory, have we peaked yet? Will it be sticky, pernicious, long-lasting? Will I lose my job? Economic uncertainty abounds… What about the Federal Reserve? Are they behind the curve, overly aggressive? Can they reel in inflation? Deliver a soft landing? Will they cause a recession? And what will happen with quantitative tightening? So much confusion about monetary rates; so much uncertainty… What’s happening with the midterm elections – are they really in play? What about abortion rights, contraception, marriage equality? Has the Supreme Court gone rogue? is Biden running in 2024? Who will his Veep choice be? Will Trump run? What’s up with the January 6th Committee? Will they refer the former president to Justice Department for indictment? What will happen with the war in Ukraine? Might it be over anytime soon? All the best people are saying there is tremendous political uncertainty… Here is the thing you need to know about uncertainty: It is always and forever exactly the same. The future is unknown and unknowable, inherently uncertain. You just refuse to acknowledge this, because that reality is pretty terrifying. I can see you doubt this, so please consider last year, when everything was fine. In 2021, goes the counterargument, there was not a lot of uncertainty. Last year, you knew where you stood: -Markets never closed less than 5% from all-time highs; -The economy was so good everyone quit their jobs; -President Biden passed a Covid bill AND a bipartisan Infrastructure bill. Ahhh, ye good olde days. Which raises an interesting question: If last year had so little uncertainty, where was the recognition of 2022’s issues? Why did no one see all of this mess coming? Why, despite a lack of uncertainty last year, did you fail to anticipate the worst bond market in centuries? How did you not see the worst opening 6-months in the stock market in 40 years? The worst inflation since 1981? Q1 where stocks and bonds both fell double digits in the same quarter for the first time in 4 decades? WITH SO LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW DID YOU MISS THIS?!? Because certainty, and its fearful corollary uncertainty, is nothing but a state of mind. Certainty is a level of comfort. It is an unjustified belief that you know what will happen, you have a good sense of the future, so it is easy to plan for what comes next, because of the lack of uncertainty. Of course, this is a false belief, a completely misguided fallacy inherent to the species. Your lack of uncertainty only means that you feel pretty good — comfortable and unthreatened enough to casually lie to yourself about how much you think you know. You can pretend you see what is coming because there is nothing to make you worry about it otherwise. When the stock market rallies 28%, you are optimistic about the future, extrapolating today out years or decades is easy. Which turns out to be utter bullshit. You had no idea what was going to happen this year, DESPITE THE LACK OF UNCERTAINTY last year. You were comfortable in 2021 because nothing was rubbing your face in how little you actually knew about the future – not the market, not the economy, not geopolitics. Despite this, you keep making forecasts; it’s a shame you are so terrible at it. You know diddly squat, you just managed to forget how little you knew about the future. When your limbic system is not overly stimulated, when you can relax a bit . . . deep inhale . . . hold it . . . deep exhale . . . let it out . . . you can fool yourself into believing any form of nonsense. This is the normal state of human affairs. But in 2022, you received no such quarter. This year kicked you in the teeth as it constantly reminds you that you haven’t the foggiest idea WTF comes next. It’s incredibly hard to pretend you knew when your portfolio is constantly reminding you of exactly little you did. Tough to pretend to be prescient when you become a prime candidate for this year’s Dunning Kruger award. Off double digits, nothing is working and there is nowhere to hide? What happened to your 2021 flavor of certainty? How did you go from KNOWING what was going to happen to be UTTERLY CLUELESS? Businessweek used to run an annual year in preview: All of the major Wall Street economists and strategists used to crunch the numbers and share their forecasts for where things would be a year hence: Stocks, bonds, the economy, inflation, GDP, employment, oil prices. The results were so consistently and hilariously wrong that eventually BW just stopped running it. Economic and market forecasts tell us little about the economy or the market, but everything about the forecaster. The silver lining: When people are secure, unworried, well-fed, they don’t concern themselves with uncertainty. When they are uncomfortable with the present, nervous about the future, and genuinely frightened about their economic security, the uncertainty monster suddenly comes to visit. This difference between certainty and uncertainty: It is not whether or not you know what is going to happen – you don’t know and never did. Your forecasting acumen between ‘21 and ’22 is unchanged; the only thing that is different is your ability to lie to yourself about it. The future is unknown and unknowable; everything is inherently uncertain, and always has been. The only thing that changes from moment-to-moment is how your psyche processes this. 2022 has been an excellent reminder of this." MY COMMENT YES.......the human brain and human genetic behavior. Investing is as much a psychological game as anything else. if you can simply stay calm and avoid doing anything based on your emotions and let the long term play out......you will do well. Of course this assumes that you are selecting realistic and reasonable investments that have an inherent PROBABILITY of gains. It is all so simple.......and yet so supremely difficult for humans to do in real life and real time.
Yet another company planing to cut hiring......not to mention the earnings miss. Snap shares plunge 25% on disappointing second-quarter results and plans to slow hiring https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/snap-earnings-q2-2022.html MY COMMENT I will leave it to anyone interested to click and read this story. this year has been a total DISASTER for share prices of this company. I DO NOT own it and never will. I consider it a NICHE company......NOT the sort of ICONIC and DOMINANT company that I prefer. this miss might put some pressure on the markets tomorrow. But....thinking investors.....assuming there are any left in the short term world......will simply not care about this company and move on.
HERE is the market in hindsight today......I need to see what I missed....being out of touch all day. Stock market news live updates: Tech leads stocks higher as earnings rush in, ECB hikes rates https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-21-2022-112313147.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Technology stocks led markets higher for a third straight session Thursday as investors mulled a slew of mixed earnings and a surprise rate hike from the European Central Bank. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%, while the benchmark S&P 500 index rose 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 160 points, or 0.5%. Shares of Amazon (AMZN) pushed higher for a seventh straight day, placing the e-commerce giant on pace for its longest winning streak since June 2020. The stock climbed 13% over the seven-day period but remains down more than 25% year-to-date. Shares closed up 1.5%. AT&T (T) shares fell 8% despite reporting earnings that beat estimates after the company revealed a lowered outlook for annual free cash flow. Meanwhile, United Airlines (UAL) stock declined 10% after the company posted lower-than-expected second-quarter results as inflationary pressures drove higher operating expenses and fuel costs that bit into its profit. Another big development this morning came from across the Atlantic, with the ECB electing to raise interest rates by 0.50%, the first interest rate increase from the central bank since 2011 and its largest increase since 2000. Investors had expected the ECB to raised rates by 0.25% in Thursday's decision. Following this move, the euro was slightly stronger against the dollar, trading above 1.025 after having reached parity with the greenback earlier this month. Stateside, investors remain focused on whether stocks can rise for a third-straight day on Thursday after tech shares rallied during Wednesday's trading session. Tesla (TSLA) was in focus after reporting earnings following market close Wednesday that topped analyst estimates but said automotive gross margins fell from the previous quarter. Shares were up roughly 2% before the bell. “Only earnings truly matter; other issues are simply sidebars to that main narrative,” Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek research said in a Thursday morning note, adding that Fed policy, investor confidence, and events may shock the system and understanding them can provide helpful context. “Ultimately, however, stock prices fundamentally reflect the market’s best guess of sustainable future corporate earnings.” Europe also anticipated the restart of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline – the biggest single pipeline carrying gas from Russia to Germany – after the end of a planned pause for maintenance. On the domestic front, economic data showed the labor market continued to soften last week. The latest report on weekly filings for unemployment insurance showed 251,000 people filed first-time claims for unemployment last week, the most since November 2021." MY COMMENT I expect that we will close out the week with a good day tomorrow......if the TECH area can get beyond the SNAP earnings miss. I mean.....come on.....it is not like SNAP is some sort of market leading tech stock. I will also mention......the FACT that I believe we hit a bottom about the end of June does not mean that the current rally is a forever rally. It could even end up being a bear market rally. Time will tell. AND.....even someone that is long term POSITIVE like me......will say......I believe we are STILL in a recession and a bear market....even if we are at a bottom. The markets are STILL very skittish. We will probably retest the lows at least once or more over the course of this year.
