I can speak to a bit about this...the pension I belong to currently sets at a good clip above 100% funded liability. I make contributions and the employer pretty much doubles that amount in their contributions. These contribution help fund the system, along with the systems management of investments, and dedicated revenue from the state. The system is currently in good shape and has been for the past several years. That has not always been the case throughout its history and changes led to a better more solvent system. I can't speak to some of the other plans, but know that is not the case for many of them. I do get a raise about every year, not a significant amount, but something nonetheless. I've got pretty good health benefits while I am employed, but it does not carry over after retirement. Job security...yes I am pretty much here until I don't want to be. The pension portion...yes, it is a good deal and should allow me to retire earlier than a lot of folks, although I started very young too. I will not have to rely solely on any of my investments, if at all, other than for discretionary spending. If I were to cease to exist, my spouse would get the lifetime benefit. At some point, add in SS and I will probably be making more retired than I did while employed. All that being said, there are many plans in existence that will never be solvent...they are too far gone and the unfunded liability is too large. Those, and there are many, that are poorly managed are a huge problem. They will continue to be poorly ran until they can't be sustained I suppose. I think it is a blackeye to the ones which are actually doing things the right way and those doing it the responsible way are few and far between. I figure the bad ones will eventually take down all of the pensions at some point. I think that is unfortunate. I only add my experience not to boast about my deal, but to offer that a few out there are doing it the right way....I agree many do not.
Sorry about the large WH post above...damn thing is large. Anyway, it would appear they are "redefining" what a real recession is or might be....I mean it could be, but it might not be... Even if the data suggests or shows that we are...are we not suppose to take anything from that? This sounds like..."We know the data is going to show this, but it is not accurate...by our own definition." Just call it what it is...this is why so many people have a disdain for politicians. Level with people...we (most) are adults and can handle some bad news.
YES...it was obvious some weeks ago that the government was going to lean on the board that calls recessions and move to change the primary definition.....if needed. I still expect that GDP will be negative......but.....I also consider that there is a chance that all the hand wringing going on right now from the government is simply BS.......and GDP will be slightly positive.
Smokie.......I am willing to post about government pensions being cut off.....but.....at the same time one of my kids and their spouse are city workers and have an AMAZING pension system that would allow them to retire at age 51 with 100% of their last three years of pay......for life. BUT....they do not get any health care benefits after retirement. They are also allowed to cash in thousands of hours of unused sick leave, vacation, and comp time at retirement. As an added bonus....they also pay into Social Security......so they will both draw close to the maximum there also. I dont fault anyone for working the system any way they legally can......I would do the same thing.
In case anyone has been living under a rock....here is the big earnings this week. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft earnings: A crucial week for Big Tech https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amaz...gs-a-crucial-week-for-big-tech-174507009.html "Tech giants such as Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Facebook parent Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) will report their earnings this week, setting up what could be one of the most significant strings of announcements in recent memory. The news — which kicks off on Tuesday when Alphabet and Microsoft report their quarterly earnings — will provide Wall Street with a far better understanding of just how much inflation, interest rate hikes, the war in Ukraine and COVID shutdowns in China have stung the tech industry’s biggest firms. Analysts will also be looking into how Apple’s App Tracking Transparency privacy feature continues to impact digital ad sales. The outlook is particularly bleak for Alphabet and Meta, after both Snap (SNAP) and Twitter (TWTR) reported disappointing earnings. Snap has had a particularly painful year so far, with shares off an incredible 78% year-to-date. Twitter shares, meanwhile, are off 10%. The S&P 500 is off 17%. The digital ad market is crushing Big Tech Alphabet and Meta find themselves in similar situations, with shares of Google’s parent down 24% this year and Facebook’s parent company off 50%. But Wedbush analyst Dan Ives cautions against drawing too many parallels between Meta and Google and Twitter and Snap. “[Snap]’s disaster earnings is not the best barometer for stalwarts Facebook and Google in our opinion given the myriad of company-specific issues [Snap] has faced over the years,” Ives explained. Twitter also faces an uncertain future, as it seeks to force Tesla CEO Elon Musk to go through with his now-abandoned plan to buy the social media company for $44 billion. “The pull forward of digital during the COVID years is now causing headwinds with the Street keenly looking at earnings this week to gauge the pace of the digital ad slowdown,” Ives said. Apple’s App Tracking Transparency, which limits apps’ ability to track users across the web, has also clobbered companies that rely on digital advertising — particularly Meta. The social media giant has pointed to the feature as a leading cause of its own poor performance in prior quarters. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has also raised concerns about how Facebook will perform in the near-term, citing the slowing economy. He said the business will slow hiring and is looking to push out workers who aren’t meeting performance goals. Amazon and Microsoft will give a look at corporate spending Amazon, which has the third largest ad market behind Alphabet and Meta, is set to report its earnings Thursday. It will be a pivotal announcement for the company. Amazon’s shares are down 26% year-to-date following a disappointing Q1 earnings and a lackluster Q2 forecast. The firm’s e-commerce business has struggled to overcome the massive expansion it experienced during the pandemic and now has too many workers. It’s also looking to potentially lease out portions of its warehouses to cut back on costs. But Amazon’s earnings will also give us a better look at corporate capital spending thanks to its Amazon Web Services cloud business. Meanwhile, Microsoft — Amazon’s biggest cloud competitor — will report earnings on Tuesday. Microsoft shares are off 23% year-to-date. Unlike Amazon, Microsoft doesn’t have a robust e-commerce business to support, so its earnings could give us an even more comprehensive look at corporate spending in the face of rising inflation and interest rates. Apple will tell us more about the consumers This week isn’t just about ad spending and corporate budgets, though. Apple will also report its earnings on Thursday, providing Wall Street with a sense of consumers’ appetites for buying personal electronics like smartphones and paying for services like Apple TV+. Apple’s iPhone 13 line gives customers a variety of pricing options starting with the $699 iPhone 13 mini and rising all the way to $1,099 for the iPhone 13 Pro Max. In June, the company debuted its new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro with its M2 chip, which should help bolster Mac sales moving forward. Apple has been increasingly pushing its Apple TV+ service, adding a string of well-reviewed shows and movies, as well as Major League Baseball. Rumors abound that the company will also add NFL Sunday Ticket, though according to The New York Times, Google is also interested in the out-of-market games package. Apple’s Q3 sales are normally lighter than Q1, which includes the holiday season, so don’t expect a massive blowout from the iPhone maker. We’re also expecting the company’s new iPhone 14 line and new Apple Watches to land sometime in September, which can keep customers from buying prior generation phones and watches during the back half of the year. We’ll find out more about how Apple and the rest of Big Tech performed as the week continues." MY COMMENT I think all of the above will be fine.....except for the one that I will NEVER own.....Meta. Even if any have a bad quarter....these companies are so DOMINANT....it will just be a temporary blip on the chart.
The above is great.....but the companies above are just the tip of the iceberg of earnings this week. It truly is a MASSIVE earnings week. A small list of the companies reporting this week includes: ALTRIA MASTERCARD FORD KRAFT HEINZ PFIZER CHEVRON HERSHEY 3M COKE CORNING GE GM COLGATE INTEL MCDONALDS MONDELEZ UPS VISA BOEING PHILLIPS 66 AND....this is nowhere near the entire list of companies that report this week.
Currently we are hanging out in the RED with about an hour to close. Yep, lots going on this week for sure with earnings that are on tap to report. What will the market do with this information? We are about to find out.
Sounds like they have a similar plan to mine. I am thankful to have it, I'm sure they are too. When I was younger, I didn't think a whole lot about it at the time...just kept plugging away enjoying the job. Fast forward several years to now and I realize it's real value. I'm still a few years out before heading off into the sunset....but I can see it and I like the view.
They need someone like Dave Chappelle to hold these White House bulletins. “M@therfu*ers we’re knee deep in recession y’all! And to your questions …”
Well the SP 500 just barely cleared the hurdle at the end (+0.13) today. Kind of one of those mixed bags again today at the end. Not bad/Not great kind of day. We get another day behind us.
I finally got a chance to look at my account just before 11PM today. I see that it was a mixed day with the SP500 making a nice late come-back. It did not help me with my particular stocks......but.....the come-back did hold my losses to the minimum today. I ended with 9 of 10 stocks down for the day.....Nike was my lone winner. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.68%. I am calling today a victory.....considering that I ended the day much better than it looked an hour and a half before the close.
I am sure this will weigh on the markets tomorrow. Walmart warning sends stock price plunging, renews retail worries https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-warning-stock-price-recession-worries-205538127.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Walmart just gave all the recession mongers on Wall Street a huge adrenaline shot in the collective arm. The world's largest retailer slashed its second quarter and full-year profit outlooks late Monday owing to rampant inflation and a consumer retrenchment. Here's where Walmart stands compared to its guidance offered in mid-May: Second Quarter Net sales Growth: +7.5% (+5% previously) Second Quarter Operating Income: -13% to -14% (flat to up slightly) Second Quarter EPS: -8% to -9% (flat to up slightly) Full Year EPS: -11% to -13% (-1%) Walmart shares plunged 9% in after-hours trading. “The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon in a statement. "We’re now anticipating more pressure on general merchandise in the back half; however, we’re encouraged by the start we’re seeing on school supplies in Walmart U.S.” Walmart declined to make CEO Doug McMillon or CFO John Rainey available for an interview. The Bentonville Bruiser now joins a growing list of household name retailers seeing their profits under siege from brutal inflation in transportation and merchandise with little room to pass on those higher costs to increasingly cash-strapped shoppers. In early June, Walmart's primary rival Target kicked off concerns about the retail sector's health with a shocking decision to liquidate massive amounts of slow-moving inventory and take a more cautious view on near-term profits. It may take several quarters for Target to clear excess inventory, pros have warned. Since Target's bombshell, discretionary retailers such as RH, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Kohl's have issued financial warnings for their second-quarter results. "I have never — maybe I don't remember — seen as much discounting with as much merchandise with high percents off," retail legend and former CEO of Gap and J. Crew Mickey Drexler told Yahoo Finance Live last week." MY COMMENT YES.....this is what a RECESSION looks like. The customer that shops at Walmart is the most impacted by inflation. They are also impacted by the end of all the FREE MONEY. This is also what happens when people dont want to work. We are nowhere near the end of all the economic shutdown impacts and distortions of the economy. Stores like Walmart got spoiled when their customers had huge amounts of extra money during the pandemic. I could go on and on about this....but why bother. It simply......is what it is. Bottom line....there is ZERO leadership in the government. Government is taking many steps that are business killers. Business is going to have to put up with total economic disruption....especially the supply chain.....for a long time.
Haven't posted cause doing so causes my to look at my accounts and I can't resist trading. I want to mostly leave things alone. Yesterday I gained almost 3.7% and for the 1st time in awhile I'm back ahead of the S&P. Down 16.62% ytd versus -17.3% for the index I'm a little ahead but I was down several % a few weeks ago. I have EQT (45%), and the rest is split evenly between DE, GOOGL, and ALK. .
I started a position in INTC - solid company, making good profits. The stock has gone down over the last years, but I think we have seen the bottom - and the stock has a great P/E ratio.
A negative market today. Understandable......with the Walmart earnings. Also the fact that MSFT and GOOG earnings come out today. The media seems to be definitely ramping up the RECESSION drama. What a joke....putting a label on what we have been living with for the past months......changes NOTHING. There are also some negative economic data reports today. What I find very interesting is the 10 year Treasury yield.....2.749%.
At least MCD and Coke got in earnings beats today. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coca-cola-raises-annual-revenue-110405138.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-second-quarter-earnings-q2-2022-111903384.html I dont own either one.....but.....this is good news for the fundamental strength of the markets.....in spite of the current negative market direction.
Here is the negative economic news today. US Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since February 2021 as Inflation Bites https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-drops-lowest-141905617.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- US consumer confidence declined in July to the lowest level since February 2021 on dimmer views of the economy amid persistent inflation. The Conference Board’s index decreased for a third month to 95.7 from a downwardly revised 98.4 reading in June, data Tuesday showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a decline to 97. The steady weakening in sentiment risks causing consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases at a time when the economy is struggling for momentum. Inflation has dented confidence and forced the Federal Reserve to pursue aggressive interest-rate hikes geared at curbing demand. The group’s gauge of current conditions dropped to the lowest level since April 2021. A measure of expectations -- which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook -- ticked down to 65.3, the lowest since 2013, and reflected more pessimistic views of their financial prospects. The report reinforces recent commentary from companies like Walmart Inc. and McDonald’s Corp. that show consumers dedicating much of their budget to essentials, leaving little leftover for other purchases. “Concerns about inflation -- rising gas and food prices, in particular -- continued to weigh on consumers,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months,” she said. Current labor market indicators in the report deteriorated in July. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to just over 50%, the lowest in over a year. Those saying jobs were hard to get also increased. The figures are the latest indication that the labor market is beginning to soften. More companies including Shopify Inc. have announced layoffs in recent weeks, and weekly applications for unemployment benefits are at the highest since November. What Bloomberg Economics Says... “While jobs are still generally viewed as plentiful compared to pre-pandemic highs -- a plus for the camp that thinks the Fed can manage a soft landing for the economy -- the current mix of rising jobless claims, deteriorating sentiment, and weak equity-market performance has always been associated with an imminent or concurrent downturn.” The median inflation rate seen over the next 12 months settled back from its June high. Buying plans for cars and major appliances pulled back in July. Plans to buy a home dropped to the lowest level since 2015. A separate report Tuesday showed sales of new US homes in June dropped to more than a two-year low." MY COMMENT About what you would expect in the current environment. There is a total lack of confidence in our institutions at the moment. My opinion on jobs......the number of unfilled jobs and the hot labor market are an ILLUSION. Every day we are seeing major corporations cutting back on hiring and jobs. That is REALITY.
Here is the other economic news of the day. U.S. new home sales drop to two-year low in June https://www.investing.com/news/economy/us-new-home-sales-drop-to-twoyear-low-in-june-2854216 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to their lowest level in just over two years in June, the latest sign that rising mortgage rates, combined with higher prices, were dampening demand for housing. New home sales tumbled 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units last month, the lowest level since April 2020, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. May's sales pace was revised down to 642,000 units from the previously reported 696,000 units. Sales fell in the Northeast, the West and the densely populated South, but surged in the Midwest. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that new home sales, which account for a fraction of U.S. home sales, would slip to a rate of 660,000 units. Sales declined 17.4% on a year-on-year basis in May. They peaked at a rate of 993,000 units in January 2021, which was the highest level since the end of 2006. The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is averaging 5.54%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC). The rate has risen more than 200 basis points since January as inflation soared and the Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by another 75 basis points on Wednesday. That would bring the total interest rate hikes since March to 225 basis points. The housing market is one of the sectors most sensitive to interest rates. Data last week showed sales of previously owned homes fell for a fifth straight month in June. Housing starts and building permits also declined further last month, but a collapse is unlikely because of a severe housing shortage. Softening demand could help bring housing supply and demand back into alignment and slow price growth. The median new house price increased 7.4% in June from a year ago to $402,400. There were 457,000 new homes on the market at the end of last month, up from 447,000 units in May. Houses under construction made up roughly 67.0% of the inventory, with homes yet to be built accounting for about 24.1%. At June's sales pace it would take 9.3 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 8.4 months in May." MY COMMENT Bad news for the home builders. Looks like the good times are over for them for a while. Perhaps good news for house hunters.....but who knows. At least NOW the truth is out there on the economy.....not that anyone is surprised.
