The TEMPORARY INSANITY today is quickly dissipating. The plane is on the ground. The world did not end. The markets are saying.......WHO GIVES A SH*T. The NASDAQ has gone green and the SP500 is flat. The DOW has cut its losses in half.
LOL.....I just looked. My portfolio seems to be suffering from....CHINA FEAR SYNDROME.....today. Every stock is in the red except for TESLA. The bit of good news.......the losses are very moderate at the moment.
Here is the jobs data that no one will care about. ob openings fell sharply in June as labor market shows signs of slowing https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/job...e-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-slowing.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The total of employment vacancies fell to about 10.7 million through the last day of June. Even with the sharp decline, there were still 1.8 open jobs per available worker Job openings plunged in June to their lowest level since September 2021 in a potential sign that a historically tight labor market is starting to slow. The total of employment vacancies fell to about 10.7 million through the last day of June, a decline of 605,000 or 5.4%, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets had been looking for openings of 11.14 million, according to FactSet. Even with the sharp decline, there were still 1.8 open jobs per available worker, with the total difference at nearly 4.8 million. Hiring also slowed during the month, dropping 2% to 6.37 million, while the level of quits, an indicator of worker mobility and confidence, was little changed but well off record levels seen earlier this year. Separations also edged lower, falling by 1.4% to 5.93 million. Federal Reserve officials watch the JOLTs numbers closely as they assess the future path of the labor market and how that might influence interest rates. The Fed has enacted four interest rate increases this year totaling 2.25 percentage points in an effort to control inflation that has run at its fastest rate since November 1981. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 372,000 in June and the unemployment rate held at 3.6%. July’s numbers will be out Friday, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones are looking for an increase of 258,000." MY COMMENT This data is so distorted as to be meaningless. It is ALSO way out of touch with current conditions......it is a month or two behind.....if not more. Not relevant at all to stock and fund investors. Keep your eye on the ball.....EARNINGS.
Yes it appears so. I miss back when we got the "news" once in the evening and that was it. Nowadays a person can literally watch it 24hrs a day. I really believe this has added so much unnecessary drama and division over the past years. They have to "fill" all of that extra time with nonsense and play their narrative to whatever base they are serving. Same with social media...put anything out there and see if it sticks kind of policy. It is information overload. And it is mostly drama driven. The financial media joins in on the fray too...making all sorts of predictions and offering their analysis. Investors over time can rely on their experience and be far, far better off. We need information, but it is work to sort through all the BS. This is why I tune into to channel WXYZ most days.
Yep.....it is definately information overload.....it makes people CRAZY. The constant 24/7 insanity and pressure makes people INSANE. Humans are not intended physically or mentally to take this kind of constant stress and pressure. this is the HUGE negative of the modern MEDIA, computers, and smart phones. AND....incidentally.....my portfolio is now POSITIVE....by about 0.50%. Six stocks UP and four DOWN.
You know...aside from party politics and the whole discussion of making that kind of trip....Sometimes I enjoy when the US just decides to "flip the bird" to some of these countries.
When you laugh so hard your heart hurts. The trip does make a statement though. The world is still spinning and life is good.
As a shareholder of ALL 4 I like the message of this little article. Opinion: The FAANMGs have been whittled down to the fantastic four Four mega-cap companies proved they can withstand a global economic slowdown, super-high inflation and a massive rise in interest rates https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-the-fantastic-four-11659385724?siteid=yhoof2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The anticipation of second-quarter Big Tech earnings was palpable. With a broad set of indicators pointing to a slowdown in the global economy, the highest inflation in four decades and a big jump in interest rates, there were many reasons to expect that tech earnings may be another data point of our fragile economic state — dare I say recession? For some companies in tech, it was a rough quarter. Social-media companies Snap SNAP, 4.77% and Meta META, 0.26% come to mind. Chipmaker Intel INTC, -1.83% may be at its low point. Others performed much better. IBM IBM, 0.12% got things kicked off with relative strength. Microsoft MSFT, -1.08% and Alphabet GOOG, 0.42% missed estimates by a hair but largely left investors reassured with their results. Amazon beat revenue numbers significantly, and Apple AAPL, -0.24% topped numbers across the board. It was a mixed bag of results that perhaps left as many questions as answers. But in short, this quarter’s big wave of tech earnings made it abundantly clear. Based on a combination of the right products, the right markets and unfettered demand that vastly outstrips any global economic distress, certain companies are too important to be hampered by the slowdown. The following four companies have the ingredients that will make them too important to fail and, therefore, should remain long-term outperformers — even when the tech trade is unpopular. Amazon After the first quarter’s big surprise to the downside, Amazon showed discipline and strength. The company right-sized for a post-pandemic cycle but saw revenue pop, and guidance looked even better — especially after seeing the strength of July’s Prime Day event. Profits are still hampered by the Rivian RIVN, 1.64% investment. But markets looked past that, and the company even rolled out part of its Rivian fleet this past month — furthering sustainable ambitions, which continue to impress. The company also alleviated any “cloud growth woes” that may have existed, as its Amazon Web Services business saw 33% growth and has reached a nearly a $20 billion per-quarter clip. Amazon was also bolstered by strong growth in its advertising business, growing low double digits, but showing further signs of Amazon, along with Alphabet finding preference over Meta as advertisers pull back, but not from their most important platforms. Microsoft A miss is a miss, but Microsoft’s six-cents-a-share miss was precisely made up of a combination of foreign exchange, China-related shutdowns and the continued impact of Russia/Ukraine. Still creating $2.23 per share in EPS and growing double digits over last year’s record results, Microsoft is exposed to both enterprise and consumer, and its results indicate that the company is more than confident to weather any impending economic storm. Forty percent growth in Azure kept Microsoft as the fastest growing public cloud company, and similar to AWS, it was just a smidge below its past few quarters. The company also saw robust growth in its cloud ERP business, search and advertising, and even Surface business — which was unscathed by the rapid deterioration of demand in the PC space. Alphabet After Snap faltered, the market was ready to throw out the baby with the bathwater. While Alphabet, like Microsoft, also missed estimates, it was a near-miss that didn’t bother investors as the stock saw a rebound after the results crossed the wire — largely because Alphabet’s bread-and-butter advertising business showed strength. Softening ad spend seemed to be no match for Google Advertising as the business grew double digits year over year and showed much greater resiliency than its counterparts — especially Meta. What was immediately apparent is that Google advertising and YouTube are putting up a better fight against the macro trends and the competition from Tik Tok, which is proving to be formidable. Google’s Cloud business also kept pace with AWS and Azure, growing above 30% and further proving that the cloud as an operating model has economic tailwinds that will remain strong in turbulent markets. Apple A new iPhone is always a good thing for Apple. And Taiwan Semi’s TSM, 0.37% earnings comments should have been enough to indicate that Apple would do just fine. The weaker iPad and Mac numbers align with a broader consumer and PC market pullback. However, even with the alarm bells raised by Apple due to continued China shutdowns, Apple, once again, delivered. With margins exceeding expectations and services revenue now reaching almost $20 billion this quarter, Apple is also showing its strength isn’t just in its devices. The service portfolio, along with its growing content business, is working. And the guidance provided by CEO Tim Cook was “pedal to the metal” in so many words — which should have given investors something to smile about heading into the next quarter." MY COMMENT I own all four of the featured companies. To me there are the BIG FOUR of the tech world. I will NEVER own META......I have no interest in their management, their business model, or their metaverse. The only other company that I might add to these four is Nvidia....but being a chip company they are subject to the UP and DOWN action that all the chip companies fall victim to. I put Nvidia as the crown jewel of the chip companies. They have taken the place of Intel....which has massive management issues. Talk about INSANITY.....the constant media line that these four BIG TECH MONSTERS......are subject to the interest rate increases and impacted by every little bump up in the Ten Year rate. TOTAL BALONEY. These companies are totally self sustaining when it comes to money and financing. Apple is siting on $202BILLION in cash reserves and investments. I consider these four companies the CREAM OF THE CROP of the tech world. I will hold onto their shares for as long as possible.
Here is an alternate opinion to the above....with the focus on Amazon. How Amazon Become Ordinary https://ritholtz.com/2022/08/amazon-ordinary/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified. Not of our competition — but of our customers.” -Jeff Bezos, 1998 Amazon shareholder letter." "We all know how much FAANMG stocks have faltered this year, but there is a bigger story brewing: The companies themselves seem to have…lost their way. What once made them great has slipped into their historical legacy, with less innovation and far less delight to end users. These behemoths have become victims of their own success, seemingly forgetting what made them great in the first place. None but Netflix and Facebook are run by their founders. Many are experimenting with new business lines and products that maximize short-term revenues but at the expense of user experience and loyalty. Grabbing short-term profits could cost them substantially over the long term. At least 3 of the giants – Amazon, Facebook, and Google – are moving away from their basic founding principles. Microsoft and Apple seem to still be doing what made them giants; Netflix falls somewhere in the middle. Let’s use Amazon as an example, but we could easily run the same exercise for all six of the behemoths. I’ve been an Amazon customer since my college roommate gave me a gift certificate in 1998. Between my home and office, I spend an obscene percentage of my discretionary budget at Amazon. For nearly 25 years, they have been the default choice for my consumption. It’s more than just Amazon Prime: I replaced my old AppleTVs with Amazon Firesticks; there are Alexas all over my house and office; I subscribe to Amazon Music. Generally speaking, I have been a satisfied Amazon consumer – at least up until the pandemic. That was where cracks in the Amazon armor began to show. Here are the biggest areas of contention: Advertising: I needed a simple lithium battery for a car key fob. I searched for the exact product number “CR2450 Lithium” and bought the first result, a Duracell. But it wasn’t a 2450, it was a paid placement (why should anyone have to doublecheck that?). These sort of search results seems to be happening with increasing frequency in recent months. I suspect Amazon algorithms will eventually figure this out, but meanwhile, it reveals that advertiser dollars and not consumers are the retail giant’s newest priority. As Juozas Kaziukėnas of Marketplace Pulse has observed, Everything on Amazon is an Ad: “Advertising has replaced product recommendations and personalization on Amazon and other retailers’ websites. They are no longer trying to guide product discovery, letting ads instead lead the journey.” Recommendations and personalization were once useful; now, it’s a cluttered, invasive, and annoying experience. Thirds party sales: Once upon a time, Amazon was the retailer at Amazon.com. Today, the proliferation of third-party sales has become a substantial portion of what is for sale on the site. This has led to a general degradation of quality: Products are worse, shipping times are longer, prices are higher and sometimes much higher, near price gouging. Customer satisfaction is mixed. But it is undeniable that Amazon is now filled with third parties often selling items of dubious (or even counterfeit). At least, that’s been my experience. Expensive, crappy products that are potentially counterfeit? That’s what eBay is for. Extended Warranty: Why does every single $20 product I put into an Amazon cart pitch me an extended warranty? Who TF needs an extended warranty on a $25 iPad cover? Between college and grad school, I worked in a retail electronics store. The highest profit SKU in the entire store was the extended warranties. The reasons for this are simple: If you already have a repair and warranty division to manage ordinary warranties, it costs you next to nothing to repair the stuff off warranty (sometimes billing the manufacturer). This creates lots of profit opportunities. Think of these warranties as insurance; every insurance claim is subject to review and pushback. How much time do you wanna spend arguing with an underpaid overseas phone rep over the repair of a disposable $50 piece of electronics? Consumer Reports has been looking at extended warranties for decades by surveying consumers. Many people who purchase extended warranties simply never use them. There are arguments over what is or is not covered. Generally speaking, satisfaction levels are low, and when asked, few consumers say they are happy with their extended warranty purchase. Extended warranties are sucker plays, a sign the retailer disrespects their customers. They may be bad for consumers, but they are good for the retailer’s bottom line. Hard pass. Prices & Inventory: For the longest time, Amazon was THE low-cost provider; today, this is no longer true. How many times did this happen to you during the pandemic: You need a product and go to Amazon, but they either don’t have it in stock or had it at a silly gouging price. They seem to have frittered away their biggest advantage: The friction of setting up a new account. The lack of inventory, higher prices, and general degradation of the user experience sent many consumers scrambling to find alternatives. The beneficiaries of this during the pandemic include Walmart, Target, Chewy, Instacart, Google Wallet, and others. It was once a huge advantage for the retailer to have your credit card + address information on file; now, consumers have= multiple accounts and wallets set up at their competitors. The FAANMG companies are going to be revenue monsters for a long time to come. Will they still be the innovative geniuses and Wall Street darlings they once were? It’s tough to see this continuing indefinitely. Amazon was never going to maintain a 50% market share of the growth in online retailing forever. The 2020 pandemic may have benefited Amazon, but it also substantially accelerated the growth of its competitors’ online businesses. The firm’s decision-making in terms of advertising, third-party sales, pricing, and general user experience is hastening a loss of that market share growth. I still use Amazon a great deal, but less than I once did; rather than just assume Amazon was the best selection and lowest cost, the assumption today is that you must also look elsewhere. This is a major shift in consumer behavior. I wonder how many people are having similar experiences…" MY COMMENT I still use Amazon as my primary online shopping site. But....I have to say the critique above is accurate. This is where the new management will be critical. Will they be able to focus on the CONSUMER that got Amazon to where they are today. Or.....will they focus on the tech side of the business and advertising? Nothing stays the same.....these businesses are all MATURE companies now. They are going to naturally evolve and change. The key for them will be to maintain their traditional business.....like consumers.....and at the same time maintain their status as LEADERS in other areas of emphasis. In the end it all comes down to company......management, management, management,.......and.....culture, culture, culture. As companies mature I see two BIG ISSUES......they fail to give emphasis to their traditional business and often end up doing the typical.......spin off of business areas for short term shareholder value......and.....management loses their edge as founders leave the company or lose interest (the revenge of the tech nerds or the bean counters or both).
Yeah, I use them quite a bit myself. The article does point out some things I agree with. Seems like they have kind of been tinkering around with things instead of just maintaining focus on the things they are really good at. Kind of like the EV deal where they lost money (7.6 billion I think). To me, that was a waste of money on their part. Sometimes it is best to stick to and improve on what you know and do best.
The markets seem to have petered out somewhat today in the final hour or so. I think all the DRAMA just exhausted everyone earlier in the day and caused a lot of people to just do something else. The news fear mongering this morning was just relentless. I just turned off the TV about 10:30......it was just so irritating. Thinking that I will close DOWN today......hopefully just moderate. The few times I have looked at my account today NOTHING seemed to be too far down or too far up. Basically another day to treading water.....compliments of the MEDIA insanity today. Some times after big gains and a month like we had in July the markets need to rest up for a few days and take some time to consolidate the gains. We need to get back to the primary focus being what really counts....EARNINGS.
A RED day for me today....so I am 1 and 1 this week so far. All my losses were pretty minimal. NIKE was my worst performer today. I also lost out to the SP500 today by......0.18%. A perfect example of a day where the MEDIA took away any chance for market gains.I like how the markets have been performing lately over the past 5-6 weeks....even on the down days. Seems much more of a normal market compared to the early part of the year and the relentless DOWN markets. Tomorrow is a new day.......and......a new opportunity.
I am very pleased with where the averages are right now.....especially considering how the year started and how DIRE everything was. I still expect this to end up as a negative year for the SP500......but......I do consider that there is some....."chance".....not "probability"....that we could end the year positive. That would take a good old fashioned Summer and Fall rally. I give us a chance to end positive this year depending on 3rd quarter earnings and the election. A good combination of the two could push us near or over the positive mark.
100% agree. I would bank more on NVDA than AMZN at this point, but other than that, about as sure bets as can be.
Yeah, it seems we are just kind of stale to start the week so far. I kind of feel like we have a "punchers chance" by end of year too. I realize a lot of the pitfalls are still out there no doubt about it, but I have not given up on the possibility. Sometimes the least expected happens...I remain committed either way.
Not a long term investor deal for sure. It appears they have done a trading halt on it this morning. This is how folks get burned in a big way. It is crazy to see the numbers. CNN-Business news. The Reddit retail army is back. A little-known Hong Kong-based company appears to have become the latest obsession of traders on the popular Reddit forum WallStreetBets, helping its stock shoot up 21,000% since its IPO less than a month ago. Shares of AMTD Digital have spiked nearly 3,000% over the past week, and were up 126% on Tuesday alone. The company debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on July 15, listing its shares at $7.80 apiece. Since then, the price has jumped to $1,679. AMTD Digital is a financial services startup that trades on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol “HKD.” The company is an arm of AMTD Idea Group, an investment bank based in Hong Kong that is also listed in New York and Singapore. The unit was founded in 2019, and provides fintech services in Asia, including a virtual bank called Airstar. AMTD Digital brought in just over $25 million in revenue last year, according to a regulatory filing. And yet this week its market cap is more than $310 billion, surpassing that of Shell (RDSA) and Costco (COST) and putting it closer to the size of Walmart (WMT) and Exxon (XOM). Even the company was scratching its head over the sudden surge. “To our knowledge, there are no material circumstances, events nor other matters relating to our company’s business and operating activities since the IPO date,” the company said in a statement Tuesday. Its parent company has also benefited from the mania. AMTD Idea Group was the No. 1 trade on Fidelity’s platform on Tuesday, and its stock jumped nearly 237% in New York. The frenzy is reminiscent of the January 2021 run-up in shares of GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC), which both saw historic upticksafter retail investors on the subreddit WallStreetBets seized on what they saw as the companies’ undervalued stocks. One user on the forum pointed to the similarities Wednesday, asking whether this was “another GameStop AMC situation.” “Where did AMTD Digital come from,” they wrote. “What did I miss?” There appeared to be no specific reason for the rally, other than online users in recent days calling for people to pile into the shares. It worked: on Tuesday, the company was one of the most traded stocks on Fidelity, according to the investment firm.
I noticed a lot of companies yesterday and today beating earnings estimates again. I know many of the big headliners are done, but it never hurts to get some positive news out into the market. So far, we are off to a decent start to the day...but it is still very early.
