Yes....earnings are coming in very nicely.....no thinks to the media and others that always seem to predict on the negative side. Thankfully their predictions.....simply often have no connection to reality. When I got up this morning the first thing that I thought about in terms of the markets was that there was a good amount of PENT UP pressure to the positive side after the last couple of mild and wishy-washy days. Looks like the markets today are confirming my morning thoughts. Now....we need to see if we can hang onto this thinking and market for the rest of the day. Definitely a strong and nice open. I see days like this as CONFIRMATION that something has CHANGED in the markets direction. I STILL believe we have now changed back to a much more NORMAL market. Same old issues.....nothing new.....and the markets simply have known and baked in ALL the current issues for many, many months now. Those OLD ISSUES have lost their power to intimidate the markets.
AND......on the same theme as the post above. Our Perspective on the Midsummer Rally While inflection points are clear only in hindsight, this has many hallmarks of a traditional recovery. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/our-perspective-on-the-midsummer-rally (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "We aren’t superstitious, so here is a statement we are comfortable making: The S&P 500 closed Monday up 12.5% from its June 16 low and the MSCI World Index isn’t far behind at 10.7% since its low the following day. It is impossible to know whether this is the initial upturn of a new bull market or a short-lived false dawn. But the past few weeks have much in common with a typical rebound, which we see as reason for encouragement. No, neither index’s bounce is a symmetrical “V” off the low. The S&P 500’s closing level Monday is roughly in line with its level on June 6, a whopping seven trading days before the low. It has taken about six weeks to retrace that journey. But it is also quite a swift rise—far from an L-shaped languishing around the bottom. Tech, which got hit disproportionately on the way down, is now leading. The upturn thus far also pairs with a hefty dose of pessimism. We have seen oodles of warnings that it is a bear market rally—a temporary respite presaging deeper declines later. Seasonality chatter is returning, with some arguing the S&P 500’s weak average returns in the past 25 Augusts and Septembers point to tough times ahead. Others argue that stocks aren’t really cheap, despite the drop in P/E ratios, because earnings have much further to fall. This, they claim, points to stocks falling alongside earnings from here in order to reach truly cheap levels. And looming over everything is the constant drumbeat of recession doom. We can’t and don’t rule out renewed declines from here. But this type of sentiment is a hallmark of young bull markets. Fisher Investments’ founder and Executive Chair Ken Fisher calls it “the pessimism of disbelief”—the tendency to ignore good news or see positives as fleeting or soon to morph into something bad. You have no doubt seen this with any good economic data that hit the wires over the past six weeks. Most coverage couches expansionary data as sure to trigger additional Fed rate hikes, implying more trouble ahead. Falling oil and gas prices hit headlines not as a relief, but as a symptom of weak demand—a dawning recession. Big eurozone economies’ Q2 GDP growth? A last gasp before natural gas shortages wreck output, according to the popular take last week. This is all quite reminiscent of the sentiment landscape as stocks recovered from 2020’s lockdown-induced bear market. Many argued the bounce would prove short-lived, pointing to record-fast drops in economic data and rising COVID case counts. Further back, as eurozone stocks recovered from their regional bear market in summer and autumn 2012, naysayers pointed to still-high Spanish and Italian yields, the bloc’s ongoing recession, allegedly elevated Grexit risk and much, much more. And after stocks’ low during the bear market that accompanied the global financial crisis in March 2009, pessimists harped on the auto bailouts, municipal bonds, tanking earnings, the continued recession and other alleged storm clouds. On all occasions, stocks saw through the noise and focused on the future, which turned out to be brighter than almost anyone could fathom. Again, we aren’t saying now is exactly like then. Inflection points are impossible to pinpoint without significant hindsight. A temporary rally exceeding 10%—basically the bear market inverse of a bull market correction—isn’t unheard of. Perhaps this is one. Perhaps the yield curve, which has continued flattening, turns deeply negative and an awful recession ensues. But perhaps and possible aren’t probable, and markets move most on probabilities—specifically, the likelihood that reality exceeds whatever expectations stocks have already priced in. Right now, based on all the headlines we are seeing, stocks have baked in very dreary outlooks, meaning that anything short of disaster would probably qualify as a bullish positive surprise. In our view, that argues for positioning for a recovery today. Even if it isn’t already underway, the new bull market is likely close by, ready to deliver the returns investors seeking long-term growth will need." MY COMMENT This article.....TOTALLY....tracks and mirrors my thinking. The current media reminds me of something out of the Lord Of The Rings......DOOM, DOOM, DOOM, DOOM. These media people are mostly simply.....NOT investing or market experts. Many of them are JUST writers.....not financial experts. MANY of them are young and have very little real world experience. They SPOUT the media line of the moment and they know that being NEGATIVE and EXTREME sells clicks. We are either at the bottom right now........right now being the end of June. OR......we will see a bottom some time over the next 2-6 months. This is the time that anyone that exited the markets should be considering coming back in......if they want to capture the early gains. BUT.....as usual.....most people will sit and stew over whether the bear market is over and will NOT be able to pull the trigger. MOST....will simply miss out on the early 10-20% of gains as we move back into a normal market. This is the REALITY of market timing.
HERE is the short term snapshot today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks rally after back-to-back losing days https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-august-3-2022-114436272.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks bounced back Wednesday morning as Wall Street looked to recover this week's losses. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each gained 0.8% after both indexes closed lower for two straight days, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 1.2%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield held above 2.7%, up nearly 20 basis points since Monday after hawkish Fedspeak prompted a jump in bond yields. In commodities markets, OPEC and its allies green lighted a small increase of about 100,000 barrels per day in oil production following calls by the U.S. and other major consumers for more supply. The move, while symbolic, is expected to have little impact on prices. Crude oil traded near highs of the day, with WTI (CL=F) just above $95 per barrel and Brent (BZ=F) at roughly $101.20. Wednesday's moves follow a down day on Wall Street that saw stocks close lower for a second consecutive session amid a high-stakes visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan that raised worries around U.S.-China relations. Shares of CVS (CVS) gained nearly 5% after the drugstore chain reported earnings that beat estimates and lifted its full-year guidance. Starbucks (SBUX) shares rose 1.3% after the coffee house unveiled fiscal third quarter earnings late Tuesday that largely beat Wall Street estimates despite inflationary pressures, labor costs, unionization efforts and the search for a permanent CEO clouding the quarter. Meanwhile, shares of AMD (AMD) slipped 3% following a warning by the chipmaker of a worse-than-expected third quarter late Tuesday. As economic data shows signs of slowing and companies continue to dim their outlooks, analysts are making larger cuts than average to earnings per share estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter. According to data from FactSet, Wall Street lowered its consensus bottom-up EPS estimate by 2.5% from June 30 to July 28. During the past five years – or 20 quarters – the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.3%. On Tuesday, investors digested hawkish Fedspeak that suggested more interest rate hikes were underway the central bank’s efforts to curb inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday said policymakers were “resolute and completely united” in their objective of restoring price stability, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters that officials were “at least a couple of reports away” from seeing enough improvement in inflation data to scale back on the pace of hiking rates. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bulllard said the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank can still achieve a "relatively soft landing" as they tighten monetary conditions. "I think the story for markets is still, ‘What's happening with the Fed? What's happening with tightening?’" Manulife Investment Management Global Macro Strategist Eric Theoret told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. "When it comes to geopolitics, it's not really driving market movement at the moment."" MY COMMENT Sounds reasonable.......and....totally what you would expect. So......NOTHING new here......simply a normal market environment. As to the FED comments.....nothing new there either. For the markets......NOTHING NEW......is good news.
Here is another little piece economists "missed" on... WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. services industry unexpectedly picked up in July amid strong order growth, while supply bottlenecks and price pressures eased, supporting views that the economy was not in recession despite output slumping in the first half of the year. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI rebounded to a reading of 56.7 last month from 55.3 in June. The increase ended three straight monthly declines. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the non-manufacturing PMI decreasing to 53.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The surprise rebound followed on the heels of the ISM's manufacturing survey on Monday showing factory activity slowing moderately last month. It was in stark contrast with the S&P Global survey showing the services sector shrinking in July. Advertisement · Scroll to continue The government reported last week that the economy contracted 1.3% in the January-June period. Wild swings in inventories and the trade deficit tied to snarled global supply chains have been largely to blame. Overall economic momentum has, however, cooled as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy to fight inflation. Services activity is being supported by a shift in spending from goods. The ISM's measure of new orders received by services businesses shot up to 59.9 from 55.6 in June. Businesses reported a rise in exports. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Its services industry employment gauge improved to 49.1 from 47.4 in June, which was the lowest reading since July 2020. Though demand for workers in industries like construction, wholesale and retail trade is easing, labor remains in short supply. The government reported on Tuesday that there were 10.7 million job openings at the end of June, with 1.8 openings for every unemployed person. read more The ISM survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 58.3 from 61.9 in June, helping to slow the pace of increase in services inflation. A gauge of prices paid by services industries for inputs dropped to 72.3, the lowest reading since February 2021, from 80.1 in June.
This may be true.....but.....the traditional PC is not the future. I dont know anyone that STILL has a traditional PC. I am sure they still dominate the business world however. These two companies NEED to focus on their internal issues......especially MANAGEMENT. What they produce is a commodity. Chips and chip companies have a LONG history of being boom or bust. It is up to management to deal with these WELL KNOWN issues. AMD follows Intel in warning that the PC market is falling apart https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-intel-pc-market-is-falling-apart-093900149.html This is why I QUIT investing in AMD and INTEL....long ago. I DO own NVIDIA......my primary reason being their MANAGEMENT. I am NOT looking forward to the day that the current management at NVIDIA retires or changes. In the current business world......MANAGEMENT and CULTURE.....are more CRITICAL than ever before.
"ECONOMISTS".........and......"ECONOMICS"......are NOT science. It DEFIES all rules of PROBABILITY how often they are simply WRONG. These are IVORY TOWER people that sit around and debate how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. You dont see many businesses RAVING about how they have hired some world renowned ECONOMIST as their new CEO. The LAST person that an investor should follow or believe......is an economist. MOST of this stuff is simply theoretical HOCUS-POCUS......with no REAL connection to reality.
Just a little update on the post from earlier this morning #11800 I think it was...that stock is currently crashing off a cliff. And it is so volatile it is halted again. People are in trouble with this thing
The markets continue to do well today.......and....we are entering the early start to the EAST COAST lunch hour. If we can avoid the profit takers and the speculative traders and the media DOOM&GLOOM till the close......we might make some money today and extend the RALLY we have been in for the past 5-7 weeks. Since it is STILL working I will repeat.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.
Regarding the SMOKIE post above......it is a SHAME that young male investors do this sort of MEME investing. It is simply GAMBLING and IGNORANCE. They are throwing their money away. The good thing is that MOST of them are really not dealing with much money....I would guess less than $500 to $1000. This is people trying to hit the lottery. They would be better off simply doing SPORTS BETTING. This is NOT investing. BUT....it is their money.....
I agree. The market looks confident so far today. I say...Lets just defy the odds and naysayers today and the rest of the week. Nothing wrong with some positive thinking.
YEP.....I just looked at my account for the first time today. We appear to be in a broad based RALLY. ALL of my stocks are UP today and the BIG TECH companies are doing very well. My account is now at a LOSS of (-17.15%) year to date. I am now well below the bear market standard of -20%. I STILL lag the SP500 by about 4% year to date.....the SP500 currently is at (-13.11%). If we can get in a few good weeks we will get the SP500 out of correction territory. I am NOT concerned about my lag of the SP500. My account tends to lag in down markets and can substantially beat in UP markets. If we get a sustained rally over the rest of the year I expect to make up that difference easily. OBVIOUSLY my portfolio and my 10 stock holdings are on the MORE AGGRESSIVE side of the bell curve. So....I am very satisfied with where I am right now. Short term comments.....from a long term investor.
Here is the continued good news today. Dow rallies more than 400 points as investors cheer strong U.S. economic data, earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/dow...-averages-notched-a-second-day-of-losses.html (BOLD is my opinion OR hat I consider important content) "U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday as traders cheered better-than-expected economic data that slowed down the idea that a recession is inevitable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 458 points, or 1.42%. The S&P 500 gained 1.72%, hitting its highest level since June and wiping out losses from earlier in the week. The Nasdaq Composite increased 2.65%, boosted by rising tech stocks. A surprise rebound in July services PMI shook off worries that the U.S. has already fallen into a recession, sending traders back to beaten-down tech stocks. The index released Wednesday ended three months of declines. Data on durable goods orders and manufacturing in June were also better than expected. Comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also boosted sentiment. He told CNBC Wednesday morning that he doesn’t think the U.S. is currently in a recession, and that rate hikes to tame high inflation will continue. “As the chair said, we’re not in recession right now,” Bullard said during a live “Squawk Box” interview. “With all the job growth in the first half of the year, it’s hard to say that there was a recession.” Earnings season continued, giving investors hope that the market can recover and potentially start a new bull market as opposed to a bear rally. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its recent low in June, and the Nasdaq is at levels not seen since May. Traders shook off anxiety that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could further strain already tense U.S.-China relations. China had spent weeks warning her not to make the trip." MY COMMENT Traders shook off anxiety about the trip to China.......MORONS. Not much about earnings in here......but.....that is the REAL reason for the current RALLY. Recession......well the definition that has been used for decades is now out the window.....at least for a while. We have now politicized recessions.
This BIG RALLY today is pushing the DOW back toward 33,000. All the indexes are benefiting today. This should be a significant help to push the markets higher over the last two days of this week. We now will have BIG TIME momentum pushing us for the rest of the week. Sooner or later the UP days are going to create a snowball affect of people going back into the markets. The markets have.....SHOWN....me a lot of money over the past 6-7 weeks. the question is....will I have to give it back some time this year.
There’s only two ways this can play: A. We’re in a bear rally and what you experience now is the anesthesia before the coma B. All the talks about inflation/recession are made up and we’ve actually made shit tons of money to absorb such nonesense from the get id like to think we’re at B, but what the hell is a little guy like me knows
For those that are curious about the latest MEME darling.....here you go. By posting this I am NOT IN ANY WAY suggesting thsi stock or this sort of investing to anyone. The $300 billion meme stock that makes GameStop look like child’s play https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/the...hat-makes-gamestop-look-like-childs-play.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points AMTD Digital, a little-known Hong Kong-based fintech company, saw its shares skyrocket 126% on Tuesday alone after experiencing a series of trading halts. The company went public in mid-July, and its stock is up 21,400% to $1,679 apiece from its IPO price of $7.80 in just two weeks. The wild trading is reminiscent of the GameStop mania of 2021 where a band of Reddit-obsessed retail investors managed to push up shares of the video game retailer and squeeze out short selling hedge funds. The ticker HKD was the most popular mention on Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room Tuesday, according to alternative data provider Quiver Quantitative. Think the meme stock mania is so 2021? Just take a look at AMTD Digital. The little-known Hong Kong-based fintech company saw its shares skyrocket 126% on Tuesday alone after experiencing a series of trading halts. AMTD Digital, a subsidiary of investment holding company AMTD Idea Group, went public in mid-July with its American depositary receipts trading on the NYSE. Two weeks later, the stock is up 21,400% to $1,679 apiece from its IPO price of $7.80. The monstrous move pushed its market cap above $310 billion as of Tuesday, making it bigger than Coca-Cola and Bank of America, according to FactSet. AMTD Digital generates revenue primarily from fees and commissions from its digital financial services business, and it only made $25 million in revenue in 2021, according to a regulatory filing. The wild trading is reminiscent of the GameStop mania of 2021 where a band of Reddit-obsessed retail investors managed to push up shares of the video game retailer and squeeze out short selling hedge funds. Indeed, the ticker HKD became the most popular mention on Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room Tuesday, according to alternative data provider Quiver Quantitative. AMTD Idea Group’s ADR was also the single-most actively traded stock on the Fidelity platform Tuesday. The stock has popped nearly 300% this week. The intense speculative behavior among retail investors is unnerving many on Wall Street yet again. “As we’ve learned over the past two years, events like this cause what I would say is opportunities for profit but great risk for loss particularly for our retail investors,” Jay Clayton, former SEC chairman, said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Famed short seller Jim Chanos took it to Twitter and expressed frustration about the mania. “So we’re all just going to ignore the $400B meme stock in the room?” Chanos said in a tweet. “We literally had Congressional hearings over the $30B runs of $GME and $AMC, but just [crickets] today. The crazy moves, based on no material news, also shocked the company itself. AMTD Digital issued a “thank you note” to investors Tuesday, adding it’s monitoring the market closely for any trading abnormalities. “To our knowledge, there are no material circumstances, events nor other matters relating to our Company’s business and operating activities since the IPO date,” AMTD Digital said in the statement." MY COMMENT The MEME traders are at it again. Is this a sign of the end of the bear market....probably. Not only is it a MEME stock but it is a Chinese company. Can you believe that this company now has a market cap above COKE and BANK AMERICA? BUYER BEWARE.
Hang in there Zukodany.......at least we are making some money....short term. I tend to think that the bear market is OVER.....although that does not mean that we are in a bull market. It simply means that the bear market is over. How much we go up from here and how long it takes to recover the losses is another question. Assuming that the bear market is over.....what does that say about all the so called experts and FED members that have been spouting nonsense about the economy over the last 6-7 months? I would call them.....MORONS.....even if the bear market is NOT over.....but that is just me being me.
Here you go if you are a Crypto fan.......notice I did NOT say Crypto "Investor". It has been a miserable August for crypto — and it’s only the third day of the month https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/cry...nth-and-its-only-the-third-day-of-august.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) THIS is a long article but a HUGE list of negative events for Crypto over the past three days. A true HORROR STORY. Read it and weep.......if you are inclined to the CRYPTO side of the news.
A HUGE day in the markets today....both psychologically and in terms of money made. I got my share. EVERY position in my account was UP and making money for me today. PLUS.....I got in a beat on the old SP500 by 0.80% today. I was able to improve my YTD LOSS today to (-16.76%). The SP500 closed year to date at (-12.82%)......pushing down toward the 10% LOSS figure that defines when the market is in a correction. SEE.......as a long term investor you can even have fun and CHEER.....when you are down by 16%.......celebrate the gains and ignore the losses....that is my motto.
