Was meaning to attach this pic to my above post earlier. Here were the last 2 major bears in the past 20+ years. Wouldn’t surprise me if we’re looking at some drawn out bear like either of those 2 by the time all is said and done on this bear. Where we get a few bear rallies along the way until that inevitable bottom has been set. We’re not quite there yet.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, September the 22nd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 9/22/22 - Central Bank - Palooza Thu, Sep 22, 2022 Futures are modestly higher following a slew of central bank rate hikes around the world and a currency intervention from the BoJ. Jobless Claims were just released for the latest week and came in at 213K which was 4K below consensus forecasts. Continuing claims were likewise lower than forecasts coming in at a level of 1.379 million versus forecasts for a level of 1.418 million. While yesterday's close at the lows was disheartening for the bulls, when you consider how the market has performed following positive initial reactions to the Fed this year, maybe the Fed day weakness wasn't so bad. Years before he became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell received an undergraduate degree from Princeton, a law degree from Georgetown, was a partner at the Carlye Group, and even served as under-secretary of the Treasury for domestic finance. He’s not only extremely intelligent, but unlike many of his colleagues on the FOMC, he has real-world experience of how the private sector and financial markets work. Given his experience, we’re sure Powell is familiar with the yield curve and how its shape impacts the economy. Specifically, when the curve inverts and short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates, it tends to slow down economic activity. While at the Carlyle Group and the private equity firm that he started after (Severn Capital Partners), he probably experienced these slowdowns firsthand and was able to make investments on good terms for his clients. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the yield curve is the spread between 3-month and 10-year US Treasuries, which still has a modestly positive slope at about 25 basis points (bps). Besides that, another widely followed point on the curve is the spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries (2s10s). As of yesterday’s close, the 2s10s curve inverted to the tune of 52 bps making it the most inverted it has been since 1982! It was nearly as inverted in April 2000, but back then the maximum point of inversion was 51 bps. Think about that for a minute. A lot of people – maybe up to half- reading this right now weren’t even alive the last time the 2s10s curve was as inverted as it is now! Looking at the chart below, since the mid-1970s, there has never been a period when the 2s10s yield curve was as inverted as it is now that a recession wasn’t just over the horizon. Getting back to Chair Powell, at one point in his press conference yesterday, he responded to one question with the answer that “No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession.” Let’s get this straight. The yield curve is extremely inverted, GDP growth in the first two quarters of this year has already been negative, and forecasts for growth in Q3 have been steadily declining as we close out the month. All this is before the recent unprecedented round of 75 bps rate hikes have had the opportunity to filter through the economy, and yet the Fed Chair is unsure of whether the US economy is either already in or on pace for a recession. Now we know that it’s not a good look for a Fed Chair to forecast a recession as the base case scenario, but does he really believe what he’s saying?
The pre-market thread is now up on the Reddits for any looking for some brief reading before today's cash market session open. GL to y'all's trading on this Thursday, September the 22nd, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xl09rh/922_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Let's see if the bounce will gain some momentum into the close. I am pretty confident we will revisit the June lows at some point this year unless we see a big turnaround in inflation, just about 4% away from the June lows now I think
Where it goes is anybody's guess, but like you, I am NOT seeing bullish signals that I think will override revisiting the area of the June lows. I think we're only about 3.7% above that level, as you also referenced.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, September the 23rd, 2022.
Is it surprising that oil is down? Ten days ago, Biden said the US would start buying oil when (not if) it dipped below $80. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ll-buying-oil-at-around-80-to-refill-reserves Maybe they'll wait for it to go down to $64, clear out all the suckers. Advise our clients interested in oil to buy at $80. Mr. Biden has set the price.
Interesting that the Dow/transports (IYT) made new lows, but the other indexes (SPY, QQQ, SMH, CIBR) found support. XBI even still above it. Getting ready for a bounce next week, still a wild ride.
Gooooooooood Friday evening and a happy start to the weekend to all! The market week ahead thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for some reading material over this coming weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xmdlze/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's most anticipated earnings calendar from EW has not ye been published. Check back in here over this weekend as I'll be posting that here just as soon as it is out. Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend ahead folks and here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers!
haha ye! and as bad as this week was with the ridiculous vol pretty much across the boards (i mean you name it, from the equity market, the forex market, bonds, metals, and even energy) crazily enough the dj30 (i know i know, who gives a rats behind about that price weighted 30 company index right!) has somehow avoided entering an official bear market (-20% from its ATH closing) all through this down move this year (up to this point at least). i'll be damned if today's low at 3660 in the continuous contract spuz ends up being "the" low of this pullback move off the summer highs. we legit just missed the june low by like literally 11 handles! technically one could say that was a successful retest of the june bear lows. but me? i'm not so sure. i still think we do need to test at least the pre-covid peak at around 3400ish. but, that's like my best case scenario on this bear cycle. admittedly i think we still do need to see some kind of true washout capitulation that might even trip up the market breakers. i don't know that i can say that we have seen that kind of day quite yet during this bear market yet. perhaps we'll see it next month. then we can get our traditional EOY santa claus rally underway. just sayin' have a great weekend guys!
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all and welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, September the 26th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on the Reddits for any looking for some brief reading before today's cash market session open. GL to y'all's trading on this Monday, September the 26th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xoh7qh/926_mondays_premarket_movers_news/
With earnings season set to kick off next month, here's a quick sneak peek at the most notables for the next 5 weeks out. (showing only the "confirmed"release dates)
