The Long Term Investor

LOL...surprise to me. I went out to get an oil change and was listening to business radio on the way. All the averages were down.....so....when I got home I expected to find myself in the RED.

NOPE.....I ended in the green and beat the SP500 today by 1.147%.

My losers outnumbered my gainers....but in the end I was green in APPL, AMZN, COST, and TSLA. Enoutgh to give me a positive day today.

So lets continue in the green tomorrow.

 

In the meantime....today.

Stock market news live updates: S&P hits new closing low, stocks tumble again as Fed fears, currency turmoil persist

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-26-2022-104431248.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks had yet another losing session Monday, as the S&P 500 hit a new 2022 closing low and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline put the index officially into a bear market. Equities were poised for more turbulence this week as fears of excessive Fed tightening and a wild run in currency markets rattle investors.

The S&P 500 barreled down 1%, while the Dow shed more than 300 points, or about 1.1%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite sank 0.6%, erasing a gain of more than 1% earlier in the trading day. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), which measures Wall Street’s expectations for short-term market volatility, rose above 31, its highest level since June 17.

The moves come after a brutal bout of selling spurred by growing expectations that central bank policymakers may trigger a recession as they raise interest rates to fight decades-high inflation.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a 2022 low after recording a 4% loss for the week. The benchmark S&P 500 shed 4.6% over the same period, teetering near its June 16 low of 3,666.77 as it closed at 3,693.23. And the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted a weekly loss of roughly 5.1%.

Skittish action was prevalent across other pockets of the market. On the bond side, the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury note surged above 4.28%, a fresh 15-year high, while the 10-year Treasury yield topped 3.82%, the highest since April 2010.

In commodities, Brent crude oil futures plummeted below $85 per barrel, the lowest since January, while in currency markets, the dollar index jumped to its highest level since May 2002.

Volatility across the Atlantic was also in focus to start the week after roller coaster action by the British pound. The currency plunged roughly 4% to around $1.03, hitting an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, after Britain’s new government announced plans to issue its biggest tax cut in 50 years and boost spending. The Bank of England issued a statement saying it was watching markets "very closely" amid swift swings in asset prices. The pound found its footing later in the day, climbing back to $1.07.

“The worry is that not only will borrowing balloon to eye-watering levels, but that the fires of inflation will be fanned further by this tax giveaway, which offers higher earners the bigger tax break,” Hargreaves Lansdown Senior Investment and Markets Analyst Susannah Streeter said in a note.

Back in the U.S., some Wall Street strategists are expecting that a recession is the Federal Reserve’s base case scenario as it proceeds with an aggressive rate hiking campaign in efforts to restore price stability – particularly after Chair Jerome Powell continuously warned of economic “pain” in a speech last week.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, however, continues to believe he and his colleagues can mitigate inflation without substantially harming the labor market, according to his remarks in a Sunday interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“I do think that we’re going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain,” Bostic said. “We’re still creating lots of jobs on a monthly basis, and so I actually think that there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions.”

MY COMMENT

I think the FED is crazy if they think they are going to pull off a soft landing. what they are doing is way too erratic and headline driven. Tells me they are just being reactionary and dont really have a cohesive longer term plan.

Those Two Year Treasury rates today at 4.28% are a really nice way to lock in a very good rate on two year money that needs to remain safe till maturity. You cant do much better then the full faith and credit of the USA.

The article mentions the BIG tax cuts and spending plan in England. As to the big tax cuts....exactly what government should be doing in the current economy. In the end I doubt that tax revenue will go down in spite of the cuts. UNFORTUNATELY.....pairing the tax cuts up with more government spending....is a mistake. BUT....I have not looked at the details....if the government spending is very targeted.....like toward fracking, oil production,etc, etc.......it may actually help.

AND.....finally....THE SP%500 it a NEW YEAR LOW today. So we have oficially broken through the prior low. Since the DOW was at a new low on Friday....it is ALSO......at a NEW LOW for the year today, having broken through the prior mid June low. So far I dont see much about having retested these lows.......so, ok.

 

Since the markets SUCK......kind-of......lets talk about GUI-TAR amps. There must be someone on here that is a player.

I have four types of amps that I still own and use.

Till about 2007 I usually used a 1967 Black Face Twin. At one time I had three.....a 1965, 1966, and 1967. The "67" was my favorite of the three and the only one that I still have. It was my regular playing amp for many years. Speakers are late 1960's vintage grey JBL D120F. The only speakers that I will use in Fender amps.

Since about 2007 I have alternated between three different amps.

The first is a 1967 Silver Face Deluxe Reverb with the drip edge. It is an early Silver Face and has full on factory Black Face specs......about 20 watts. It is a very early Silver Face before any changes were made to the Black Face circuitry. It also has a JBL D120F in it. I only use NOS JAN Sylvania and Phillips power tubes in this amp and also in my Twin. This amp also has a vintage NOS Mullard rectifier tube in it......a really pricey tube at about $250-$500 each for the real thing. Fortunately rectifier tubes last a long time. This amp has that CLASSIC 1960's Fender tone and reverb.

For the road I used to use my Twin....but over time weight and carrying became important......so I switched to using 1982 Music Man 112 RD 50 amps. I have three of them.....my main playing amp and two back-ups. When touring I would usually take two of them in road cases. They both have the stock Celestian speaker that came in them originally. A very small footprint and not much weight....but a very loud 50 watts. When you have a sound-man and big PA...these are just fine for stage volume. They have no problem keeping up with a 84 watt Twin.

The third amp option that I have and use for smaller shows is a 20 watt Belcat....Chinese....yes I know our ENEMY....amp. It has been heavily modded from what it was originally. It has great tone....but if I am playing in a high volume situation it can be drowned out.

One thing about amps....if you buy vintage.....they NEVER go down in price. You can ALWAYS get your money and more out of them.

So anyway.....any amp fans on here today.....if so tell me what you have and all about it.

 

Away we go....UP, UP, UP........like a balloon. The markets are open nicely......GASP......green.

I will take it even if it is less than an hour and a long way from the close. I will take it even if it fades at mid-day. It is better than what we have been dealing with for weeks now.

 

kind of a strange story....at least the headline compared to the ACTUAL data. Not that anyone will care anywey if theya re not selling a home.

Housing: Home price growth slowed by record amount in July

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-home-prices-case-shiller-131733938.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Home price growth in the U.S. slowed by the largest amount on record in July, clocking in the fourth straight month of deceleration. But values remain markedly higher year over year.

A national measure of prices in July rose 15.8% over the same month last year, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed Tuesday. That’s down from June, which showed an 18% annual gain.

The 20-city composite increased 16.1%, down from 18.6% in June and far lower than the consensus estimate from Bloomberg of 17.35%.

“Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, wrote in a press release. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index."

The figures underscore how quickly the housing market has cooled off from the pandemic-era frenzy. Price growth is expected slow even further because rates moved even higher, but the double-digit annual price gains still remain unaffordable for many would-be buyers.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas posted the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July, with Tampa leading at 31.8%, followed by Miami at 31.7%, and Dallas at 24.7%.

All 20 cities posted lower price increases year over year in July.

In July, mortgage rates oscillated between 5.30% and 5.54%, slightly lower than the 5.81% registered in June. Since then, though, rates have taken off, with the rate on the 30-year mortgage hitting 6.29% last week. That's more than double the 2.88% rate the same time a year ago.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate," Lazzara wrote in a statement.

More recent data has shown further cooling, with sales of previously owned homes dropping for the seventh month in a row in August and the median sales price falling for the second straight month to $361,500. That's down $24,000 from the record high of $413,800 in June, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Home builders, too, have taken more drastic measures to entice homebuyers by offering price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs, and free amenities, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Permitting for new single-family home construction has also collapsed.

New home sales for August is set to come out later Tuesday with data on pending sales of existing homes for August — a leading indicator of the housing market's health — on the docket for Wednesday."

MY COMMENT

YES.....the FED is determined to tank the housing markets as well as the economy. Whats new? The housing markets are screwed up just like everything else right now. Whats new?

 

At the SAME TIME.....we have this little news item.

New home sales unexpectedly jump in August

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-home-sales-jump-august-142456527.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New home sales unexpectedly increased in August from the month before, but the decline in median and average prices suggests that home builders are open for negotiation as the overall housing market cools.

Sales of newly constructed homes came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, up 28.8% from July's revised pace of 532,000 and 0.1% below the year ago estimate of 686,000, according to a report from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau.

The figures far exceeded the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 500,000 in annualized new home sales.

Still, the median price for a new home dropped 6.3% month over month to $436,800 from a revised $466,300 in July. The average price also fell by 6.3% to $521,800 in August from $556,700.

The figures offer a mixed picture for the housing market after a host of recent data showed slowing sales and cooling prices, an about-face from just the start of the year.

The decline in prices in August may reflect how many builders are offering incentives to move what homes they have for sale as jittery homebuyers contend with rapidly rising mortgage rates. Tight inventory has been a persistent problem and behind rapidly higher price growth.

Twenty-four percent of home builders reported reducing their price in September, up from 19% in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders, while half said they offered mortgage rate buy-downs and free amenities, among other inducements to close sales.

That's led to deteriorating confidence in the industry, with builders' sentiment falling for the ninth consecutive month in September to a reading of 46. A number below 50 is considered negative.

As a result, builders are pulling back on new construction. Permitting for single-family homes plummeted in August. Applications to build declined 10% to an annualized rate of 1.517 million units in August from 1.685 million in July. The consensus expectation by Econoday was 1.621 million."

MY COMMENT

Not that anyone cares about this......OR.....the expectations of the EXPERTS. Yes...in my area at least builders are dropping prices. Over the past `12 months.....in my little area..... they jacked up their prices WAY ABOVE existing home prices. It was GREED, GREED, GREED. We have a limited number of new builds here in my area and the builders simply got too GREEDY.

 

Lets talk about one of my favorite topics......THE EXPERTS.

For the most part this is simply.....yet again.....part of the MANIPULATION SYSTEM that the big banks and the big investors use to (legally) manipulate the markets and juice their short term trading. It is an amazing system when you think about it.

1. They ALL use the same sorts of news and headline and technical driven AI computer trading programs. So they independently.....act in concert.....and drive the daily markets.

2. They ALL employ massive numbers of so called EXPERTS either as employees or consultants....who.....along with the PR machines that the big boys ALL use.......are constantly.....daily....putting their projections, predictions, market "stuff", estimates, earnings and stock price projections, analyst ratings, etc, etc out into the media. NO DOUBT......their computer and other trading operations are ALL using this stuff in their short term trades......since it ALSO drives the markets.

3. To complete this little......legal......process......they ALL have total pipelines to the financial and other media who hang on their every word and disseminate it daily with breathless headlines. They are the EXPERTS because the media makes them the experts.....and in return they feed the media. Again driving and feeding the program trading systems.

It is ALL a perfect.....legal....system for market manipulation.

SO.....I totally stay out of their way. I take the LONG TERM approach and leave the short term to them. they have their niche and I have mine. Two ships passing in the night.

EDIT.....NO....I am not paranoid. I really dont worry about this or even care. It is just a fact of life and part of investing. It has been going on in some form or another for as long as there have been markets. I just like to point it out once in a while.

 

I find this interesting from a business perspective.

Plant-based meat sales declining, industry possibly suffering 'perception problem'
Saturation of market, perception problem being blamed for declining sales

https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/...ndustry-possibly-suffering-perception-problem

MY COMMENT

NO...not going to post the article, read it if you wish. These companies are in the category of "feel good" businesses that have an EXTREMELY small and narrow market. I doubt that any of them will ever make a profit and most of them will eventually FAIL. There is an INHERENT flaw in their product and their market. The VAST MAJORITY of people dont want their product.

BUT....the real sad thing for them is that the people that might be their target customer......at least those that I know.....constantly gripe about "processed foods".......well......this product is the ULTIMATE processed food. There is NOTHING NATURAL about it in any way. It is all GOO, and chemicals, and added vitamins, and binders, etc, etc, etc. I just dont see any future here.....baring government mandates.

 

STILL good markets today. I just looked at my account for the first time.....and it is a clean sweep. ALL green. Hopefully we will end the day the same way and we can all get a bit of money added to our accounts today.

YES......"HOPE"....is my short term investment plan. Now...long term.....my investment plan is based on "FACT".

I am STILL about 5% away from my prior year to date....LOW. I consider that GREAT since we have recently broken through the prior market lows for the year.....yet.....I am still about 5% from my prior personal account low. That is called PROGRESS.....and....making money in a bear market.

If nothing else today....I have a shot at replenishing some of my cushion against losses that was cut into recently.

 

LOL....right on schedule....the East Coast lunch hour. Amazing how this happens so often.

Yes....I am talking about the market going negative.

 

WELL for..... "me".....what "I" do is the ONLY way to go. But if you read this thread you will see that I often say.....ALL INVESTING IS PERSONAL. By that I mean and also say......if it works for you....DO IT.

I ALSO say.....my success or your success is not dependent on each other. For me to succeed does not depend on you failing. The fact that other people may be successful doing something different from me is just fine. I do NOT subscribe to any sort of ZERO SUM....baloney.

If you want to be a trader....and....a market timer.....and...buy and sell trying to miss the market dips......fine with me.

I also often say....anyone can post anything on here that they wish about their investing style. I dont own this thread....no one does. It is here for discussion from anyone about anything to do with investing.

What I post is simply what I do. i do the same thing over and over and over....it works for me. For anyone else...if you find something that works for you and achieves your goals in investing......do it over and over and over till it no longer works.

Actually.....Rayak.....if you look at my post that you quoted above....the entire thing is describing what "I" do and what "I" follow in my investing. I dont think you will find anything in there saying it is the ONLY way to invest and that EVERYONE should follow what "I" do.

My posts in this thread are a multi year illustration of my ACTUAL investing moves and results.....no more no less. What I post is what I believe and do.....NOTHING in this thread is intended as INVESTING ADVICE to anyone else. It is simply a REAL TIME record of every investing move I have made over the years since this thread was started.

SINCE you are relatively new.....you will also notice over time that this thread is NOT infected with the typical internet message board MEANINGLESS ARGUMENTS. That is a good thing in my opinion. I dont care to argue with anyone....the odds of changing anyone's personal opinions is ZERO. So in this thread I simply post what I think, what I believe, and what I do.....IN REAL TIME.

Please continue to post here as you wish. The more the better. AND.....anyone that wishes to post their investing moves as they make them in REAL TIME........please do so. That allows others to follow along and see TRUE RESULTS. Not the usual internet message board stuff.

 

So....today. I was in the green again today....very slightly......but green is green. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.34%. So this week I am two for two. My gainers today were....AAPL, NKE, NVDA, HD, and TSLA.