We are totally on the same page. I have also said in the past on here......in general, not directed at Rayak,......I got any desire to argue on the internet BEAT OUT OF ME....long ago. What a waste to time.
I guess this is what happened today. I was relatively out of touch today. Stock market news live updates: S&P 500 sputters to another new 2022 low as stocks waver https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-27-2022-112056722.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a new 2022 low and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling deeper into a bear-market, a day after a tumultuous trading period. The S&P 500 was off by roughly 0.2% after dipping below its June 16 intraday low, while the Dow Jones Industrial fell more than 100 points, or roughly 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was an outlier — up about 0.3% on the day. Treasury yields continued their ascent, with the 10-year note narrowing in on 4% — the highest since 2010 — and the 2-year Treasury note topping 4.3%, a 15-year high. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), which measures Wall Street’s expectations for short-term market volatility, continued its climb to top 32, its highest reading since June 17. Fedspeak kept investors busy on Tuesday. In a live interview with the Wall Street Journal, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he and his colleagues were "united" in taking aggressive measures to combat inflation. "We are committed to restoring price stability, but we also recognize, given these lags, there is the risk of overdoing it on the front end, and so I think we are moving at an appropriately aggressive pace," Kashkari said. Earlier in the day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said while speaking at a forum in London that the U.S. central bank will need to raise interest rates by at least another percentage point this year but does not see the labor market heading into "recession-like" conditions. Tuesday’s moves in markets come as Wall Street increasingly anticipates the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign to fight inflation will result in an economic downturn. Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly warned of some “pain” in a speech last week following the central bank’s latest policy announcement. “We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest decline in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging and we don't know whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,” he said. As the major averages slipped below their June 16 lows, strategists are wondering how much lower the indexes have to fall as Fed policymakers proceed with more rate increases and, on the corporate side, analysts begin to slash earnings expectations. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, among the most bearish of analysts on stocks, expects an acceleration in downward earnings revisions in coming months will push stocks lower, projecting that the S&P 500 will reach a range of 3,000-3,400 later this fall. Meanwhile, Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE, was more optimistic. He said in a note: “Many traders and investors may not have noticed that last week’s slide put the SPX back below its bear-market threshold, and as unwelcome the milestone may be, historical tendencies show the worst was often over by the time the SPX first hit the bear-market threshold — which in this case, was a little more than three months ago.”" MY COMMENT It is going to be ALL ABOUT EARNINGS for the next month or two. Combine that with the election......and you have the markets for the next couple of months. I expect that we will get another negative GDP figure for the third quarter and we will CONTINUE in recession. I also continue to believe that we have potential for another 10% to the down side as we sit in the soft mud of the current market bottom.
Thank goodness....I love that COSTCO hot dog and soda deal. But than....I have yet to meet a hot dog that I did not like. Lightning just struck me’: Why Costco’s CFO says the price of the $1.50 hot dog and soda combo is ‘forever’ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/costco-cfo-says-hot-dog-and-soda-combo-price-is-forever.html
I notice the FED continues their "world speaking tour" above. I think JP is giving a speech this morning at some banking event in St. Louis later this morning. What really is left to be said at this point? They told everyone for months that inflation was simply transitory after being asked and grilled about it way back sometime ago. When they ignored the warning signs early on and dismissed any notion of inflation taking root. They then went to this "soft landing" talk for quite a bit, which is nothing more than a hope and prayer strategy. Now they are shifting to "expect some pain" and "we hope it's not a deep, deep pain." They sure seem to want to talk about all of it extensively now, but was pretty dismissive to anyone that suggested this problem was forming way back then. They just come off as totally incompetent at this point. "We are going to keep at it until we get the job done." Translation: We are going to break things, we are going to go too far and not realize we have went too far, and we determine what the definition of getting the job done means. Kind of like the circus defining a recession....it is, but it really isn't....or is it. No wonder we are at this point with policy makers like this.
"Translation: We are going to break things, we are going to go too far and not realize we have went too far, and we determine what the definition of getting the job done means. Kind of like the circus defining a recession....it is, but it really isn't....or is it. No wonder we are at this point with policy makers like this." A perfect description of what the FED is doing and is going to do. They have ZERO control of the economy or the markets.....other than CRASHING them and as a result.....HOPEFULLY.....cutting inflation. Even that is NOT a sure thing.
Well we are open and running today....actually forward.....not backwards as is often the case lately. Here is what is going on today in the investing world. Stock market news live updates: Stocks open mixed after 10-year Treasury briefly hits 4% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-28-2022-112213537.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks struggled for direction early Wednesday after the 10-year Treasury yield – a key economic linchpin – briefly spiked past 4%, hitting a closely watched level for the worst bond sell-off in decades. The S&P 500 was up a modest 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 60 points, or around 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was off by 0.2%. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England said it would carry out temporary purchases of long-dated U.K. government bonds, an emergency intervention to help stabilize its currency. “Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to U.K. financial stability,” BoE officials said in a statement Wednesday morning. “This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy.” Sizable moves across fixed income and currency markets were in focus Wednesday morning as central bank and recessionary worries kept investors on edge. On the bond side, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note temporarily topped 4%, the highest level since 2008, before retreating to around 3.8%. “Long-dated U.S. Treasury price volatility is hitting statistically unusual levels right now, just as it did in June 2022,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said in a morning note. “U.S, equities bottomed in that month once yields stabilized.” On the corporate front, shares of Apple (AAPL) fell more than 3% at the start of trading after a report the tech giant is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after demand for the product failed to meet expectations. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expressed skepticism over the news, calling reports "more bark than bite," and noting that "the upside from better-than- expected iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max demand is likely being offset by weaker initial iPhone 14/14 Plus demand does not imply any downside to its iPhone shipment forecasts." Elsewhere, shares of DocuSign (DOCU) bounced 3.5% at the open after the company said it expects to restructure and reduce its workforce by approximately 9%. Biogen (BIIB) stock surged roughly 40% on Wednesday after a successful trial of its experimental Alzheimer's drug. News that the test slowed the progress of Alzheimer's by 27% compared to a placebo in a clinical experiment also buoyed shares of pharma peers like Eli Lilly (LLY), which rose more than 7%. Some Wall Street giants have turned more bearish on stocks, flagging the risk of a global recession as central banks take the most aggressive monetary action in decades. Strategists at BlackRock’s (BLK) Investment Institute said that policymakers were downplaying the extent of economic pain needed to rapidly reduce inflation. “Markets haven’t priced that so we shun most stocks,” a team led by Jean Boivin said in a note earlier this week. Goldman Sachs (GS), Wall Street’s premier investment bank, cut equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months, citing rising real yields as a headwind. MY COMMENT In other words.....NOTHING new or unexpected. the same old, same old. Perhaps today will be the day that we will finally get to see all the averages end the day in the green....it has been a while.....or, at least it seems that way.
If you have some CASH...here are some options. 5 places to put your cash right now: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-places-to-put-your-cash-right-now-morning-brief-100036731.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow fell below the 20% mark on Monday, joining the S&P 500 in bear market territory and capping off an abysmal slide since the peak at the end of 2021. The boom that followed March 2020’s COVID crash is over — and many of the investors who joined because of stimulus payments, meme stocks, or free trading are experiencing their first patch of turbulence. The good news? The market may look bad, but there are actually — for the first time in a while — some interesting places where you can put your extra cash to work. (If you’re lucky enough to have some.) Here are five strong contenders: Paying off debt: The Fed has made the stock market look less enticing. But it’s also made paying off debt look a lot more attractive, largely because rate hikes on debt that takes their cues from the Fed will make your interest rates go up. One way to avoid that spike is paying down the debt. But there’s another upside to debt reduction: The return is guaranteed — unlike the fickle stocks. For example: Paying off your 6% car loan is the same as making 6%. The return is even bigger if you’ve loaded up your credit card and are paying your friends at American Express 20%. Online savings accounts: High-yield savings accounts are back! The Fed’s rate hikes and stiff competition have forced online banks —probably not your brick-and-mortars, sadly — to boost their Annual Percentage Yield (APY) to well over 2%. Not bad for FDIC-insured accounts that don’t lock up your money for months on end. And future Fed hikes will see that figure rise even further. CDs: The rise in online savings accounts may have made CDs less attractive these days, but they do pay even more. A year-long CD can get you over 3%. Yes, a year is a long time. But if you need that money sooner, you can withdraw. Sure, you’ll likely forego the interest. But you are still technically liquid (check the terms of your CD, of course). I-bonds: They’ve been one of the best-kept secrets in personal finance, probably because you can’t get them from brokers or other third-party sources. They come from the Treasury and its cumbersome website (word of advice: do NOT forget your password; I was on hold forever.) But they do pay incredible rates and are backed by the United States government just like the dollar.The rates are set twice a year based on inflation metrics. That’s usually not very high but it’s 9.62% right now. Caveat: If you withdraw before five years, you lose the last three months of interest. (Hold for 18 months, get 12 months interest and so on). There’s also a $10,000 I-bond limit per year per person. The stock market? Well, are you a long-term investor or a short-term investor? Channel your inner Warren Buffett: If you believe stocks will be strong in the long-term and have money you don’t need to touch, putting cash into stocks might be a good move. The bottom line: Stocks are at December 2020’s prices and if you expect an all-time high once again someday, you’re getting a deal. You could try to time the bottom (maybe another 14% decline!), but why bother? It doesn’t actually matter that much. It’s obviously hard to figure out what to do when the market is so unappetizing. But if these five places or some combination can help offset the historic inflation that’s essentially giving you negative returns, it’s probably good to give them a look. MY COMMENT Of course there are also various Treasuries....especially the TWO YEAR....which is generally over 4% right now and probably going higher over the near term. This is the GOLD STANDARD for safety. If you want to avoid principle risk....hold to maturity.
Anyone that follows this thread knows that much of what I post is pretty basic. This is intentional. There are many people out there that are relatively inexperienced investors or just starting out. So...when I see something that might be helpful, I post it.
Well with the markets hanging in there and doing well....they dont need any help from me......so, I will go to the lab and do the blood draw that I have to do today. Hopefully the markets dont end up doing a blood draw of their own today. Words of the day: COURAGE, PATIENCE, and PERSISTENCE.
I Appreciate the kinds words. I spend my time here learning in WXYZs, TOMB16s or Tom's TSLA columns, they offer many many talents and have years of data to support their claims. I'm not the great trader or investor. Simply the little kid peeking through the office window of the pro's Long live Tesla, have nerve pills on standby. Just added F Ford to list at 12.04. hOdL
Looks like the WFH debate/controversy is still out and about with some companies....Here is a small snippet where GM basically said "get back to the office", only to reverse that position a few days later after employee push back. In fact, just stay out until 2023. Sept 27 (Reuters) - General Motors Co (GM.N) on Tuesday said it will not mandate workers return to offices before 2023 after it had told them on Friday that they would be expected to work three days on-campus each week later this year. The U.S. automaker told employees who have been working remotely that it does "not plan to mandate which days of the week will be collaboration days. In no scenario will our Work Appropriately evolution begin before Q1 2023." I was talking with a close friend the other day, who is in a manager/HR type position (not GM), and asked about hiring and applicants with their company. He said they simply cannot fill many positions and those that have applied are poorly qualified. He also mentioned that in certain areas of the company where "open" positions have not been filled for a bit, they are now just cutting many of those positions out completely due to not being able to fill them. Basically sounded like the company decided it wasn't worth the effort anymore. The jobs were not high end type, but were respectable wage wise. I don't know, sometimes it seems we are in a strange place. Sometimes you have to take a job...to get a career.
Yep Smokie.....makes me wonder about the work ethic of people today and whether they have any drive to get ahead and be a success in life. BUT.....on the other hand I look around where I live in my specific neighborhood and in my general neighborhood......and I see young people 25 to 40 years old......who are very successful and doing very well financially and in life. A good sign for the future of the country. I will say that a good portion of them are of every nationality you can imagine, Persian, Indian, Hispanic, Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, etc, etc. I live in a TRULY diverse area. The things that everyone here has in common, men and women....they are here for the great schools and for their kids......they work hard.....they are educated.......most work for BIG companies. I ALSO see the people that are doing the yard work, the plumbing, the electrical work, and all the other services and trades.....they are also working hard and care for their family and kids. Many of them are pushing their kids to succeed and go to college. Many of them are in reality small business owners.....when you think about it. They do hard work...physical work......and many of them are making a good living. BOTH the groups above are the FUTURE of the country. The people that choose to NOT work or are not willing to do what it takes or have no drive to get ahead......will find out they have been left behind.
Looks like we are in the clear today...with about five minutes to go. ALL of the averages are UP nicely today. We are REBOUNDING from the new 2022 lows that we hit this week.
A SOLID day for me today. Every stock was UP except for APPLE. BUT....I did get beat by the SP500 by 0.36%. Dont really care with the gain I got today and the money added to my account when it is all said and done. Lets see if we can string this into a three day RALLY to the end of the week.
NO DOUBT.....the drop in Treasury yields had a lot to do with the markets today. 10-year yield drops the most since 2020 after touching 4% https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/10-year-treasury-yield-tops-4percent-soaring-to-14-year-high.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropped the most since 2020 on Wednesday, despite briefly topping 4% earlier in the session, after the Bank of England announced a bond-buying plan to stabilize the British pound. The yield on the 10-year Treasury last dropped nearly 22 basis points to 3.739%, which is the most it’s dropped since 2020." MY COMMENT Not that I really care why we went up today. It is only one day. BUT....at least we broke out of a six day losing streak. I am looking forward to EARNINGS.....if for no other reason....so we have some NEW news driving stocks up or down. My NIKE reports tomorrow.
Zukodany mentioned NETFLIX the other day....here is one take on the company. How Netflix lost its edge over the competition https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/netflix-is-losing-the-streaming-war-amid-disneys-rapid-growth-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Over the past 25 years, Netflix has changed the film and television landscape. The company has amassed nearly 221 million subscribers across 190 countries, billions of hours watched for popular series like “Stranger Things,” and along the way has racked up 226 awards. Since going public in 2002, the company and its subscription-based business model have been an immediate hit with customers from its humble beginnings as a DVD-mail rental service to the streaming juggernaut it became. Fast forward 20 years and things are looking different for the storied streamer. Though Netflix is still dominating the streamers in terms of overall subscriber base, with nearly 220.7 million subscribers, Disney+ is catching up, with 152.2 million since launching in 2019. On July 19, 2022, Netflix announced its second-quarter earnings. The company beat expectations, but in the critical area of subscriber growth it lost an estimated 970,000 subscribers. That was better than than the 2 million projected loss but compared unfavorably to rival Disney+, which gained 14.4 million new subscribers in its last quarter. As Netflix suffers losses in its massive subscriber base, it is looking to generate revenue by changing its long-standing business model by including advertisements and cracking down on password sharing." MY COMMENT A pretty skimpy argument above. I say....DUH. Yes content is the KEY for these companies.....as is subscriber growth. BUT....the streaming wars are FAR from over. I see Amazon and others adding SPORTS now to their services. there is STILL a HUGE untapped world wide population of people that have yet to buy one of the many services. It will depend on...content, content, content......as well as the usual......management. Check back in about 10-15 years for the answer to who becomes the KING.
Talking about NETFLIX. Netflix stock surges on double upgrade as Wall Street cheers on ad tier https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-surges-as-wall-street-cheers-on-ad-tier-192309204.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Netflix (NFLX) shares soared on Wednesday after Atlantic Equities upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight, citing upside potential in the streaming giant's upcoming ad-supported tier. Analyst Hamilton Faber raised his price target to $283 from $211, surmising that the ad rollout "could be extremely material." He added that he does not "believe the benefit is currently reflected in the consensus." Faber estimated that advertising could boost revenue by $6.7 billion over the next three years and that the average revenue per user (ARPU) may amount to $26 per month — more than three times the rate of Disney's (DIS) Hulu due to Netflix's higher viewership-per-subscriber numbers. Netflix shares popped more than 9% in afternoon trading on Wednesday. Wall Street bullish on Netflix ad tier Netflix has enjoyed quite a few Wall Street upgrades in recent weeks. Analysts from Citigroup and Oppenheimer both raised their price targets on the stock, citing the company's move into advertising. Netflix estimated that its ad-supported tier will reach 40 million viewers by the end of next year, according to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, which noted that executives at Netflix and its advertising partner Microsoft (MSFT) met with ad buyers in recent weeks. "We are still in the early days of deciding how to launch a lower-priced, ad-supported tier and no decisions have been made," a Netflix spokesperson told Yahoo Finance earlier this month. "So this is all just speculation at this point." As competition intensifies in the streaming space and Wall Street looks beyond subscriber counts, platforms have grown more open to exploring various distribution and pricing models to diversify audiences and offset shrinking growth. Netflix and Disney are the latest platforms to hop on the ad-tier bandwagon, with the latter aiming to officially launch its ad option Dec. 8. Netflix recently announced two senior hires in its own efforts to roll out an ad-supported tier next year, although recent messaging signaled that the company may be moving up the launch to Nov. 1 to get ahead of Disney's timeline. The ad-supported version will cost between $7 and $9 a month, according to Bloomberg, with the company planning to play four minutes of ads for every hour of content. Netflix is looking to charge advertisers roughly $65 for reaching 1,000 viewers (a measure otherwise known as CPM or "cost per thousand"), WSJ previously reported. That charge is significantly higher than most other streaming competitors." MY COMMENT See comment in the post above. We are just now at the starting line of the STREAMING WARS. We are just at the start of the time when we might start to see MASS ADOPTION of these services. I dont own any of these companies and dont have any plans to do so. Although....we do use....Netflix, Amazon Prime, Paramount+, and Disney......in addition to our ATT service.
Yup, the thing that REALLY matters though is who is the Wall Street sweetheart here between Dis and Netflix.. clearly Netflix has been rewarded by Wall Street for many years and has been punished by clearly nothing remarkable OTHER than its comparison of subscriber additions to Dis… that’s why it plummeted over 50%…. What a joke. Meanwhile, Disney gains 14 million subscribers in one quarter and its stock gains absolutely nothing. In fact it is at Feb-March 2020 levels when the stock crashed. A-Mazing! I sold Disney last year when I realized that stock is a terrible hold, and added a small stake at Netflix, nothing to write home about, but I’m positive it will play out well for them once the market AS A WHOLE decided to reward the tech sector again. The same will happen to all of those big name tech companies. There’s really nothing to panic about if you’re a long term investor and your stock has dropped in concert with the rest of the market. There’s no phase out era here, simply a downturn.
I’m looking closely at some REIT stocks… not looking to buy anything at the moment since the whole real estate market may fall off the top any moment now, but once I sense a bit more stability I’m looking to add more to my existing O Realty position and maybe look into SPG. Great established conglomerates with a safe dividend yield
