I'd like to see F well under 10 like the good old days. Tesla fought hard and held up fairly well. I'm sure margin calls were knocking on doors. Depends on how the money wants to flow, Im keeping the powder dry and coasting.
I think about that trend line that someone showed a while back: the SPX in a progression--4800, 4600, 4300, etc. And each time the market collapsed, the institutional traders took it back up to that trendline. I'm not exactly sure where we are with that, but it seems to me, based on recall, that the top of that trendline should be around 4100 or 4000, at worst. The question is when market greed will rally the SPX yet again.
Gooooooooood Saturday afternoon and a happy weekend to all here at the Stockaholics community forums! The market week ahead thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for some reading material over this weekend: LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xt3maq/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's most anticipated earnings as well as the highest vol earnings calendars from EW have also been published and here they are. Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend folks and here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week, month and quarter ahead. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers!
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all and welcome to the first trading day of the new week, month and quarter and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, October the 3rd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 10/3/22 - New Start Mon, Oct 3, 2022 It's a new quarter, and investors hope the clean slate leads to a more positive backdrop for equities. That being said, with S&P 500 futures indicated 1% higher at the open, it would only erase two-thirds of Friday's decline, not to mention the losses from the rest of the week. Along with higher equity futures, oil prices are up around 5% on the news out this weekend of a potential million barrel per day production cut by OPEC+. Treasury yields are significantly lower this morning as the 10-year yield dipped below 3.70%. On the economic calendar, the big report to watch this morning will be the ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM. Economists are forecasting the headline number to drop modestly from 52.8 down to 52.4. Heading into the new quarter, the YTD losses for individual sectors and where they are trading relative to their 50-day moving averages are staggering. Year to date, four sectors are down over 25% and another three are down over 20%. Two more are down over 10%, and the 7% decline in Utilities seems like a win at this point. The only sector in the green YTD remains Energy, and with oil prices higher this morning on reports of an OPEC+ production cut, the sector is poised to add to those gains this morning. While the YTD declines have been steep, the recent weakness has really put many sectors into deeply oversold territory. The fact that all but two sectors (Health Care and Energy) are at ‘Extreme’ oversold levels (greater than two standard deviations below 50-DMA) is illustrative enough, but it’s not often that you get seven sectors trading more than 10 percentage points below their 50-day moving averages.
The pre-market thread is now up on le Reddits for any looking for some brief reading material before today's cash market session open. GL to y'all's trading on this Monday, October the 3rd, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xui0pi/103_mondays_premarket_movers_news/
U.S. manufacturing nearly brakes; price pressures abating | Reuters That's the kind of news the market wants now I guess, softer economic data that would make the FED less hawkish
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)surged 3.75% today. The U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear Apple's (AAPL) appeal of a lower court ruling on the company's patent infringement dispute with Qualcomm. As Apple has no higher court to turn to, the case is effectively dead in the water. http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=qcom
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, October the 4th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 10/4/22 - Captain Macro Still at the Helm Tue, Oct 4, 2022 The market is finally getting some positive follow-through for a change. After yesterday’s 2.5% rally, the S&P 500 is poised to gap up over 1.5% while the Nasdaq is looking at an even larger gain of 2.0%, and this comes despite no let-up in geo-political concerns as North Korea fired a ballistic missile near Japan. Traders have instead chosen to focus on central bank policy and a lower-than-expected rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia (25 bps vs 50 bps expected). The hope is that Australia’s easing off the gas pedal is a sign of things to come from other central banks around the world. In addition to the spike in equity futures, treasury yields are lower again with the 10-year yield down below 3.6% and the 2-year now just a couple of basis points above 4%. Crude oil is up another 1% and getting closer to $85 per barrel. The earnings calendar remains quiet for the next few days, and the only economic reports on the calendar are Factory Orders and JOLTS (both reports for August). Usually, when you get a rally following a steep market decline, the dogs of the downturn lead the subsequent rally. It’s called the dash for trash. The logic behind the trend makes perfect sense. The stocks that drop the most during a market decline are the ones that investors expect to be the most negatively impacted by the market catalyst, whether it be rising rates, economic weakness, geo-political concerns like a war in Europe, or weather events like a hurricane hitting a major population center. Once investors perceive that weight to lift, these stocks start to levitate. Take the war in Europe. Surging energy prices from the near or complete shut-off of energy supplies to Europe from Russia have taken a higher share of the disposable income of consumers in that region and forced some European industrials to halt production since it’s become too expensive to keep the lights on. If the Ukraine war were to end, though, energy prices for the region would likely come back in, and these consumers and companies that have been hurt the most would have the most to gain. In yesterday’s rally, though, the dash for trash was not evident. The chart below shows the performance of Russell 1000 stocks yesterday broken out by deciles based on their YTD performance through last Friday’s close. While the worst-performing stocks YTD (deciles 7 through 10) slightly outperformed yesterday, so too did the best-performing stocks YTD (decile 1), and the other five deciles barely underperformed. In other words, traders were not just buying the 'losers'. So, what happened? We’ve been highlighting the extreme daily breadth readings in the S&P 500 for weeks now, and this ‘all or nothing tone’ of the markets -more ‘nothing’ than ‘all’ lately – is reflective of a market driven by macro forces. Instead of specific sector/company fundamentals acting as the primary driver of performance, factors like central bank actions or the latest comments from a Fed official have taken precedence Captain Macro is still steering the ship.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a brief read before today's open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, October the 4th, 2022. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xves6p/104_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
The thing is if the SPX collapses to 3650 again, whether it would be attractive anymore, considering that a collapse to 3500 or even 3400 is now possible [It seemed inconceivable in a sense, for the SPX to collapse to even 4200 at one point] Recall, at 4800, the collapse to 4600 seemed attractive at one time. Then 4400. Then 4300. Then 4200. Then 4000. But those levels don't seem as interesting to a buyer now. Come to think of it, even 3300 is now possible.
I want a test of the 3600 level again...a visit to 3530 would be excellent--for long buy opportunities. At this point, anything higher than 3800 feels too risky
Profit took. Exited all positions. So, that's why I want another stab, but at a more meaningful level. As I mentioned, it could go up more. But, I'm working with a distinction between price action prediction and trade management. Trade management is more important for me
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, October the 5th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a brief read before today's open. GL to y'all's trading on this Wednesday, October the 5th, 2022. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xw9di4/105_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 10/5/22 - Giving Back Wed, Oct 5, 2022 Equity futures are giving back much of yesterday afternoon's gains and treasury yields are higher as markets reverse some, but certainly not all, of the moves from the last two trading days. ADP Private Payrolls increased 208K in September which was slightly above the consensus forecast of 200K. Oil is down marginally today ahead of an expected production cut announcement today, but crude rallied over 8% to start the week in anticipation of today's decision. Overnight and this morning, we've seen the release of Services PMIs for a number of countries, and the general trend was of sequential declines suggesting that economic momentum continues to wane. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7% in the first two trading days of the week, and while large, moves of this magnitude haven't been unprecedented, and looking back over the last 50 years, there have been more than 30 other two-day rallies of 5%+. This week's move was the largest since April 2020 and we saw a number of similar moves in the weeks coming off the COVID lows. Between those occurrences and the Financial Crisis, there was one occurrence in late 2018 and another in August 2015. The red dots in the chart below indicate every prior day where the two-day trailing return of the S&P 500 was 5% or more. In recent years, a number of these occurrences came right or near market lows, but over the longer term, they have sprung up in all sorts of market environments like near market tops, early in a downturn, near market lows, or in the early stages of new bull markets. In other words, their level of significance is debatable.
This morning the SPX at 3730 so ar. The question is how far it will collapse. I guess the 3790 of yesterday was close enough to what I had mentioned as "3800 almost guaranteed."
