actually, the key word is surprise, my question is what could russians do that would surprise us. a black swan is unexpected or surprising right? at this point it seems nothing the russians do would surprise us, thus, no black swan. catastrophe maybe, but all the swans are the same color.
Until the Dollar is unhinged and everybody quits buying our debt, it would be a act of lunacy for anyone to consider War with the United States. The World would all but quit spinning. The economic Shockwave alone is unimaginable. Even the little village in Uma Guma would collapse. Once we get knee pads back on the plane and dizzy back on his bicycle and out of the way we can re-establish lost ground. Until then it's going to be a slow walk back up the mountain. Just have to scratch our heads and realize, GOD has a sense of humor. 1929 is in the History books, we survived Jimmy Carter and we will overcome this little dip.
A black swan is usually an unexpected event that could take the market down.. So even though we have a situation that tightens in Ukraine, it still hasn’t accelerated into a full on confrontation with the US. And so I highly doubt that the market even at its current dismal state has baked in that circumstance
I haven't looked too deep into VZ other than what you have mentioned. The price and the dividend looks reasonable as mentioned. One thought I had was if you already have a company or companies paying a good dividend in your portfolio that has been reliable and earned your confidence, you could just add to those positions instead. This would eliminate the risk of taking in another (VZ) that you may or may not be sure you want to add. That's just a thought to consider if that helps any at all.
The jobs data has us off to a rough start looks like. Typical continued over reaction to any little thing.
yeah i was splitting hairs on the definition of black swan, but, anyway, hello, time for the market to bake it in.
A few shillings and a can of white paint are on standby. Sipping on Billy beer and watching the show.
Russia/Ukraine....if it continues as is it will just be an "unknown" possibility waiting on the edges. If Russia were to resort to tactical nuclear weapons it will put NATO in a spot. At that point sanctions or more sanctions won't mean anything. NATO countries have pretty much been unified up to this point, but that would be tested to the max with the use of tac nuke. I could see the NATO alliance then being at odds on how to respond, unless one of them was hit in the fray. Hopefully they have a plan for that at this point. If not, they have miscalculated poorly.
As an investor.....especially a long term investor.....if I start to worry about black swans around every corner I will just drive myself crazy. There is no time period in history that there is not some big disaster lurking in the background. I have no control over this sort of event.....there is nothing I or anyone can do.....so I will NOT worry about it. A true....BLACK SWAN....that is a major world wide event.....will create a situation where what you are invested in and how is irrelevant. Money will be irrelevant....it will be a question of gut level physical survival. Something like a tactical nuke in Ukraine......is NOT a big world wide event. It would be a psychological shock and cause the markets to drop substantially....... temporarily.....but have little REAL impact on our country and our businesses.
Here is the excuse for the markets today. Jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 263,000 in September, unemployment rate falls to 3.5% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-october-7-2022-203836987.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Job growth slowed for a second month in September as a series of supersized interest rate hikes permeated the U.S. economy, but the softer nonfarm payroll gain is still unlikely to deter policymakers from aggressive monetary action to fight inflation that remains at a decades-high. Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report released by the Labor Department on Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg. Non-farm payrolls: +263,000 vs. +255,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.7% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.0% vs. +5.0% expected The cool-off in September employment data is a welcome sign for Fed officials trying to tamp down an extraordinarily tight labor market that has placed upward pressure on wages and contributed to soaring prices. However, the print remains substantially higher than the 150,000-200,000 average that was typical before the pandemic, leaving room for the U.S. central bank to proceed with hefty rate increases. “Today’s job number is a hawkish reading, with almost all the elements of the report moving in the wrong direction for the Fed," Principal Global Investors Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah said in a note. Stocks plunged and Treasury yields spiked following the report. "Payrolls were broadly in line with expectations but, importantly in this good news is bad news: markets were hoping for a downside surprise today," Shah added. "Instead, the number only confirms that the Fed needs to hike rates by a fourth consecutive 0.75% in November.” Despite the drop off in jobs added during the month, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, while economists had expected the figure to hold at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate in September ticked down slightly to 62.3% from 62.4% the prior month. Average hourly earnings, a closely watched part of the report, rose 0.3% over the month, on par with both the prior reading and Wall Street expectations. On an annual basis, wages slipped slightly to 5.0% from 5.2% in August, also in line with estimates. “To the extent that there are any implications for the Fed, the data brings us back to where we were before last month,” Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska said in commentary. “There is not a lot of capacity for the labor force to grow, and thus, strong wage pressure is going to continue to be an issue." At the industry level, the leisure and hospitality sector was again among standout gainers, with 83,000 jobs added in September. The figure marks a jump from 31,000 in the prior month but is in line with the average monthly increase over the first eight months of the year. Although hiring continues in the sector and the broader labor market has completed its pandemic recovery, employment in leisure and hospitality remains 1.1 million, or 6.7% below the pre-COVID level. September payroll gains in health care brought the industry back to its February 2020 level with 60,000 jobs added across ambulatory health care services and hospitals. Job growth in professional and business services continued an upward trend last month but climbed at a slower pace, up by 46,000 payrolls in September compared to the industry's 2022 average of 72,000 per month. Manufacturing jobs rose by 22,000 in September, below this year's average so far of 36,000 jobs per month. Employment in construction continued grew by 19,000 on part with the monthly average of around 18,000 in 2022. Meanwhile, payrolls fell by 8,000 in the transportation and warehousing sector and the financial services sector. In any case, members of the Federal Reserve have consistently asserted that restrictive policy will be necessary for a sustained period of time until price stability is restored, with inflation still stubbornly high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose at an annual rate of 8.3%, well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that he and his central bank colleagues have further work to do to bring inflation down and are "quite a ways away" from pausing on raising interest rates, even as employment data this week has shown signs of a cooling labor market. "Today's report, coupled with the recent job opening report indicating that job openings are beginning to weaken, underscore that the Fed's tightening campaign as painful as it is, is beginning to slow down activity," LPL Financial Chief Global Strategist Quincy Crosby said in a note. "Still, the market's initial negative reaction underscores that inflationary pressures are not decreasing fast enough for the market to be convinced that the Fed is closer to the end of its tightening cycle."" MY COMMENT Anyone that is thinking that the FED will do a lower than 0.75% increase in November is simply out of touch with reality. In fact.....EVERY....increase they have done so far has been TOTALLY EXPECTED. The "HOPE" that is put out there is.....in my view....simply market manipulation by traders....to set up their short term trading. The day to day markets are now operating based on FANTASY. Much of it is being driven by the now constant 24/7 financial media. Welcome to the MODERN WORLD.
Here is another take. Stock market news live updates: Stocks sink, Treasury yields spike as Wall Street weighs jobs report https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-october-7-2022-103610527.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks tumbled at the start of trading Friday as Wall Street weighed the government's monthly employment report, which showed a slowdown in September hiring but still-robust labor market. The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Economists expected a payroll gain of 255,000 and for unemployment to hold at 3.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped off 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 300 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down, declining 1.8%. Meanwhile in the bond market, Treasury yields spiked, with the benchmark 10-year note jumping 7 basis points to 3.90% and the 2-year yield 8 basis points to 4.32%. "The market’s negative reaction may be a sign that investors are processing the likelihood that there will be no change in the Fed’s aggressive playbook in the near term," Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Office, said in a note. "Keep in mind the next Fed decision isn’t until early November so much more data will need to be digested, not the least of which is next week’s inflation gauge." Investors are betting that signs of a cooling labor market would force Federal Reserve policymakers to change course on their aggressive rate-hiking path, particularly after a series of weaker economic releases showed a drop-off in manufacturing activity and fewer job openings. But many Wall Street strategists have argued that hopes of an imminent pivot are premature, a sentiment that this jobs report likely reinforces. In recent research notes, JPMorgan analysts said that equity bulls would need a monthly payroll print as low as 100,000 to see the market alter its Fed expectations, while analysts at Bank of America said a pivot won’t occur “until payrolls sting.” “The Fed's job is still far from over: expect hikes to continue until negative payrolls are almost in hand,” a team at BofA led by rates research strategist Meghan Swiber noted. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials themselves have delivered clear messaging in recent weeks that there are so far no plans to retreat from aggressive policy intervention. "We have further to go," Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said Thursday, indicating the benchmark rate will likely be at 4.5% to 4.75% by the spring of 2023. ""Inflation is high right now and we need a more restrictive setting of monetary policy." U.S. crude oil futures continued this week’s climb on the heels of the heftiest OPEC+ production cut since 2020. DataTrek Research noted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at more than $85 per barrel will prolong positive energy inflation trends until at least the start of 2023. The firm also noted that oil prices are an “underappreciated fulcrum issue” for the Federal Reserve and the market’s expectations of near-term economic growth. WTI futures traded around $90 per barrel early Friday, up $10 this week. Elsewhere in markets, chipmakers were under pressure Friday morning after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) lowered its third-quarter revenue guidance and warned of “significant” inventory corrections across the PC supply chain. Shares were fell 7% early into the session. Also weighing on the sector was Samsung reporting its first profit decline since 2019, another sign of a troubled chip market. Levi Strauss (LEVI) was also a mover Friday after the retailer cut its guidance, citing headwinds from a stronger dollar, slowing consumer demand and persistent supply chain snafus. The stock was down around 5% Friday morning. Meanwhile, shares of DraftKing (DKING) jumped nearly 5% after Bloomberg News reported Thursday that ESPN is nearing a large new partnership deal with the sports-betting company, citing sources familiar with the agreement." MY COMMENT This article is EXACTLY what I was talking about above. It is simply DELUSIONAL FANTASY when people say: "The market’s negative reaction may be a sign that investors are processing the likelihood that there will be no change in the Fed’s aggressive playbook in the near term". and "many Wall Street strategists have argued that hopes of an imminent pivot are premature, a sentiment that this jobs report likely reinforces." This stuff is a backwards way of saying that investors were "hoping" and "thinking" that the FED would back off. This is CRAZY. There is absolutely no evidence that the FED will back off.....they are being TOTALLY CLEAR. This sort of talk that investors were "HOPING this or that"......or.....that something...."may be a sign"....is simply media fantasy. One thing about investing.....especially for the long term.......you have to live in the REAL WORLD and see REALITY. This means for the most part.......simply IGNORING all the day to day drama and opinion that is RAMPANT in the financial media now.
Speaking of significant world wide events......are YOU prepared? The odds of some life changing world event happening in any persons lifetime is slim. But....it does not hurt to have a plan. We used to live in EARTHQUAKE COUNTRY.....so we were prepared for having to live in an extended time period after a disaster. We are still prepared. 1. We have a go bag ready by the back door with emergency supplies, first aid kit, fire starter, water filter, biological masks, crank/solar radio with short wave capacity, batteries, etc, etc, etc. 2. We have a 3-4 month supply of 20+ year emergency food....enough for ALL family members. 3. Yes....we and family members have a supply of guns and ammunition. 4. Some of our family members have emergency generators. 5. We have fishing, hunting, and other materials that would allow us to survive in a crazy event. 6. We keep our second vehicle that we dont routinely use.....FULL....of gas, all the time. So between the gas in both vehicles we have enough to routinely go 1000 miles. I am not paranoid or a hard core prepper.....but I like to live by the boy scout motto.....BE PREPARED. Perhaps I get this from growing up in a military family. AND.....even though we have a plan and are prepared for disaster......I dont spend any time worrying about it.
IN SPITE.....of all the negativity today.....we are STILL very much on track to end the week at the close today.....with a nicely positive week. At this moment....with the SP500 down by 1.7%......we are on track for a weekly gain of +2.67%. It is all about perspective......and REALITY. I will take that at the close today....and move forward to a new week from here.
I hear you and agree we can't control it. I was just pointing out the use of such a weapon would ratchet up the intensity to another level. It would increase the chances of further escalating risks. It would put NATO countries in a position to decide on something other than just sanctions. I'm not sure NATO (which includes us) would just sit idly by while Russia systematically went about using that type of weapon over and over. Hence, making it a broader event than it currently is.
i am not. i should at least buy a fishing rod. could probably hike down to the pacific in a couple hours. i have no weapons, but can handle a shovel, so if it comes down to hand-to-hand combat, i should survive. my immediate concern is that my wife is trusting me with two of her IRAs. this morning she commented that her account is down. i gave her my usual reply that it always comes back. she's getting tired of that response.
Yeah, all of the stories about the latest reports "dashing" the hopes of a pivot are comical. That ship sailed long before today. I almost want them to do a 100bps just to watch the pure insanity that would cause.
BUMMER Emmett. Handling a spouses retirement account.....a very dangerous thing to do. Talk about GUTS.
For anyone that is still...."HOPING" the FED will pivot......give up and give in. Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-deliver-another-big-rate-133815851.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve looks almost certain to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis point interest rate hike next month after a closely watched report Friday showed its aggressive rate hikes so far this year have done little to cool the U.S. labor market. Pricing of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate implied a 92% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate, now at 3%-3.25%, to a 3.75%-4% range when it meets Nov. 1-2. That was up from about an 85% chance seen before the Labor Department report, which showed employers added a larger-than-expected 263,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7%. It was the wrong direction for a U.S. central bank intent on slowing demand for labor as a centerpiece of its battle against inflation that is rising at more than triple its 2% target. The Fed has raised short-term borrowing costs faster this year than any time since the 1980s to take the heat out of the economy and ease price pressures. The higher rates have noticeably cooled the red-hot housing market, where a scarcity of supply had helped push prices up more than 40% in the first two years of the pandemic. There, with mortgage rates rising to nearly 7%, home sales have slowed and prices gains have slowed dramatically. A report earlier this week showing job vacancies fell sharply in August, and volatility in global equity prices as the Fed and other central banks have raised rates, had sparked hopes in some quarters that the Fed would soon slow or even stop its rate hikes. Fed policymakers have consistently pushed back on such a narrative, saying their work to bring down inflation will entail pain and is nowhere near done. Friday's job report underscored that view. “If you are someone who is looking for a pause or pivot or whatever it is, they are pretty much flat-out telling you we are not doing that," said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. "People keep trying to convince themselves. It’s like are you lying to me or lying to yourself, it seems like a lot of people are lying to themselves that the Fed will stop.” MY COMMENT Please....believe me when I say....THE FED IS NOT GOING TO PIVOT. As the article says: "People keep trying to convince themselves. It’s like are you lying to me or lying to yourself, it seems like a lot of people are lying to themselves that the Fed will stop.” The next increase in November WILL BE......0.75%....as usual. They have been telling us this for MONTHS now. It may be IDIOTIC, it may be STUPID,.......whatever......but it is not going to be less than they have been telling us. Investors need to get over it and move on. The media is driving a lot of this delusion with their constant speculation about the FED that changes from day to day.
The markets tried to make a LIAR out of me today....that we would be in the green for the week. they made a good run at it but they FAILED. My account.....BIG RED today......but.....still up for the week. I got hammered by the SP500 today....by 1.11%. Year to date I am NOW at (-30%). I continue to be stuck in the LOSS RANGE of 24% to 30%. Not unexpected with what is happening and what the markets are doing.
