Gooooooooood Saturday morning and a happy weekend to all here at the Stockaholics community forums! The market week ahead thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for some reading material over this weekend: LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xysv56/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's most anticipated earnings as well as the highest vol earnings calendars from EW have also been published and here they are. Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend folks and here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week ahead. Get that moola! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers!
No capitulation last week. I'm starting to feel like the bottom is here. Looking for a reversal day on Tuesday/Wednesday. As we head into earnings season. How is the economy going to contract when employment is rising?
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all and welcome to the first trading day of the new week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, October the 10th, 2022.
Happy Columbus Day to all btw. And just a quick side note here that the bond markets have the day off today (closed).
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a brief read before today's open. GL to y'all's trading on this Columbus Day - Monday, October the 10th, 2022. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y0d6rv/1010_mondays_premarket_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 10/10/22 - Treasury Market Closed Mon, Oct 10, 2022 The bond market is closed today, so at least Treasury yields can’t go up. We wish we could say the same thing about yields across the Atlantic, though, where British gilt yields are all higher and getting back up near their closing highs from less than two weeks ago. Equity markets are open for trading today, and after opening sharply lower last night, futures have rebounded to move close to the unchanged level. That’s the type of environment we’re in these days when just a modestly negative open to start the day is considered a win. With banks and the treasury market closed for trading, there is no economic data on the calendar today, so expect volumes to be on the light side. How bad is sentiment out there? In looking through the various Bloomberg headlines this morning, the following three were all out one after the other: "Deutsche Bank Strategists See 12% Drop in US EPS Next Year" "MS Strategists See Bear Market Continuing Until Earnings Reset" "Goldman’s Kostin Sees Strong Dollar as Headwind for US Earnings" Like the birds overhead, sentiment heading into earnings season has been moving south. Bulls can only hope that sentiment has moved south enough already. Over the last several years, Columbus Day has seen some extreme market moves. The two best Columbus day performances for the S&P 500 were in 2008 (+11.58%) and 2011 (3.41%), and the one thing both of those years have in common is that they were lousy years for stocks heading into Columbus Day To the downside, the worst Columbus Day performance was in 2014 when the S&P 500 declined 1.65%, and no other year besides 2014 over the last 25 has seen a decline of more than 1%. While the two best Columbus Days for the S&P 500 came in years when stocks were already down big YTD, there isn’t really much of an inverse correlation between YTD performance and Columbus Day returns. In the seven years over the last 25 when the S&P 500 was down YTD heading into the holiday, the median Columbus Day performance was a gain of 0.13% with positive returns four out of seven times (57%). In the 18 remaining years when stocks were up YTD heading into the holiday, the S&P 500’s median performance on Columbus Day was a gain of 0.05% with gains 10 out of 18 times (56%).
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, October the 11th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a brief read before today's open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, October the 11th, 2022. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y18iin/1011_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 10/11/22 - The Roller Coaster Continues Tue, Oct 11, 2022 Equity futures were sharply lower this morning but have rebounded sharply in the last hour. There's no specific catalyst to the move, but the BoE's expansion of its bond-buying program has certainly helped. The monthly look at small business sentiment from the NFIB came in slightly higher than expected (92.1 vs 91.6) and increased slightly relative to August's reading. There are no other economic data on the calendar today, but Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester will be speaking at noon, and remember that in late September she made some rather hawkish comments suggesting that hell or high water wouldn't deter the Fed from hiking rates to combat inflation. Between value and growth stocks yesterday, we saw a modest divergence where the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) traded at a new low while the Value ETF (IVE) did not. At face value, that divergence would sound like a negative for growth stocks. Looking at the price charts of each ETF, though, shows that while the growth ETF made a new low yesterday breaking through its September and summer lows, the value ETF had already broken below its summer lows in late September. So yes, value has outperformed over the last few days, but the technical picture for both is lousy.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, October the 12th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a brief read before today's open. GL to y'all's trading on this Hump Day - Wednesday, October the 12th, 2022. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y239lv/1012_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 10/12/22 - Is That Green on the Screen? Wed, Oct 12, 2022 The big news item of the day will be the September PPI which is being released as we type this, and the results were not all that good. Headline PPI came in at 0.4% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI was in line with forecasts at 0.3%. On a y/y basis, the headline reading came in at 8.5% versus forecasts for an increase of 8.4%. Y/Y Core PPI was actually slightly weaker than expected at 7.2% versus forecasts for 7.3%. Futures were higher heading into the print along with US Treasury yields as the 10-year trades back up near 4%, but equities have now given up nearly all of their gains in the immediate aftermath of the report. Pepsi (PEP) reported better-than-expected earnings and sales and also raised guidance this morning, and the stock is trading 2.5% higher in response. Today is really just the warmup for tomorrow, though, when we'll get the release of CPI and banks will kick off the Q3 earnings season. In the meantime, keep an eye on the UK as officials there can't seem to make up their minds on how long they intend to support the gilt market. With the S&P 500 down five days in a row, the number of down days this year continues to pile up. Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 has traded down on 56.9% of all trading days. That may not sound all that extreme, but since the five-trading day week began in late 1952, this year is currently on pace to have the second-highest percentage of down days in a given calendar year. The only one with a higher percentage of down days was 1974 (58.3%) when the S&P 500 was down 29.7% for the calendar year. Barring a major reversal in Fed policy, which is only taking on an increasingly hawkish stance even as economic activity shows signs of weakness, 2022 could end up in the record books. Not only has the S&P 500 experienced a large number of down days, but the frequency of big down days has also been at historical extremes. 2022 just took out 1974 for third place in terms of the percentage of down 1% days, trailing only 2008 (29.6%) and 2002 (28.6%). Just as the S&P 500 was down nearly 30% in 1974, 2008 and 2002 were horrible years as well with declines of 38.5% and 23.4%, respectively. If it Ever Went Up, They Wouldn’t Call it Losing
Semiconductor stocks continue to look awful and looks like more bad news are coming but I still bought a little bit of SOXX as a long term play, ready to buy more though if they continue to tank
Market gaps down -2% (many many stocks much worse of course), and VIX doesn't even budge. Had to wait a while to make sure it wasn't halted or something but nah, it's even down -2% now.
