I exited all positions for risk management. Starting afresh. Entering initially at SPX 3675 seemed sensible at the time, considering the SPX had rallied to above 3800. But, in hindsight, I should have gone with my initial instinct to enter only at 3600 or non above. I had been wanting that rally to a possible 4000. But, it might be better working with what the market is likely to give, rather than a "possibility." This is not 2021. Since the SPX collapsed non above 3500 briefly this morning, I am now wondering if 3400 is not a possibility. Before this morning, I had not really thought that--at least not for a while. But, if it were to happen, entering at 3400 to 3430 would be nice. Broadly speaking, I think 3400 is just as likely now as 4000, at some point. But for now, I'd like another stab at around 3550 or even 3500 for a long.
What is the 3-Day Rule in Stock Trading? • Benzinga Answers In short, the 3-day rule dictates that following a substantial drop in a stock’s share price — typically high single digits or more in terms of percent change — investors should wait 3 days to buy. Heard about this term pretty often from Fast Money on CNBC
So, I'm not sure what that actually means: It drops significantly on Monday. Then the recommendation is to buy not Tuesday [day 1], not Wednesday [day 2] but on Thursday [day 3]. I guess Thursday is the day to buy according to that "rule."
After that hyper rally yesterday and looking at the ES, I expected the SPX to be well above 3700 this morning. But it's struggling at around the 3675 level. Hmmm. Maybe that non-3600 level may happen again. I'm wanting around the 3550 level or non-above for a long entry. This level seems too risky for me now
Yeah, after yesterday's price action, today's price action DOESN'T MAKE SENSE AT ALL for the bullish scenario. This confirms that this level is precarious. A mid-3500 level is more sensible, if it were to happen
We're working on building a base. Thanks to one of @bigbear0083 post, I didn't realize we had up to a 6-day losing streak. I have my own personal rule to wait 5 days after a 4-day losing streak lol. That would be Monday = 5th day after NDX's 4-day down streak. Whatever the case, I'm glad this idea jives with Frankenstein's perspective: don't go balls deep yet! On another note, these down days have been very minimal. So September's low close wasn't eclipsed (on a closing basis) until Wednesday. Usually markets hit their low close on a Monday/Tuesday...which is why I was looking for a reversal on Tuesday/Wednesday, but the low close never came until Wednesday. https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/can-the-market-bottom-on-a-friday/
Ok. Started entering at SPX 3600. Not the ideal level, but a good starting point, in this environment. 3550 is better and of course 3500 is the most comfortable, but don't want to miss out, especially since I know it's going to go above the 3600 level, virtually guaranteed and now the 3750 level is still keenly possible
For a bullish case, I don't know if the SPX should be struggling like this at 3675. And it seems to me that the SPX should have hit 4100 or 4000 by now [meaning in the last month]. Something doesn't seem right. Also, the SPX hit 3491 last week. Something doesn't smell right in Denmark.
But strangely, the TRIN is at .48--so lots of buying by institutional buyers, I think. But VIX at 31. Lots of contradictions. Could go either way, since it's earnings season, but not the strongest of bulllish case.
This 3675 to 3685 level seems like "no man's land." But I'm not interested until it hits 3600 or non-above [again]
There's going to be a movie about the Wall Street Bets guys. "A-list cast". Lot of comparisons, in this early stage, to The Social Network. https://deadline.com/2022/10/sebast...sony-in-big-deal-filming-underway-1235141457/ Sony Pictures has beaten out other suitors to take one of the hottest movie packages off the table, striking a domestic deal and more for Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money from Black Bear Pictures. The project has attracted A-list cast including Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Sebastian Stan, Pete Davidson and Shailene Woodley. More names will be revealed soon. Currently in production and based on author Ben Mezrich’s book The Antisocial Network, the movie will tell the story of fortunes made and lost overnight in the David vs Goliath GameStop short squeeze which made headlines far beyond Wall Street last year. Pic will offer an irreverent and scathing portrait of how a loosely affiliated group of amateur investors and internet denizens crushed one of the biggest hedge funds on Wall Street, thus upending the establishment (for a time, at least).
speaking of "wall street bets" who is this guy that has a thread pinned to the top of that reddit sub?
Yeah they love your ER previews over there, gives them something to look forward to YOLO on. I didn't know NFLX was reporting tomorrow! Apologies for talking so much about a reddit but we're near the end of this page anyway so in a couple of posts you won't have to scroll by this... a couple of memes I liked today.
Morning Lineup - 10/18/22 - Back to Back 500s Tue, Oct 18, 2022 Stock futures are pointing sharply higher for the second day in a row this morning. While there are no specific catalysts, better-than-expected earnings against a backdrop of extremely oversold markets provide fuel for at least a short-term rally. Sentiment towards the market has been very negative as well. The latest example is the BofA Fund Manager Survey which showed the highest allocations to cash since 2001. Despite the rally in stocks, bonds are behaving as Treasury yields are modestly lower. In the commodities space, crude oil is little changed while gold is down modestly. In the stock market lately, it’s either the end of the world or the beginning of a new bull market. In yesterday’s rally, the S&P 500’s net advance/decline (A/D) reading came in at +455 which followed a reading of negative -442 on Friday and +438 Thursday. With futures up nearly 2% this morning, it’s looking like another positive day of everything coming up roses (for now). We classify any day where the S&P 500’s net A/D reading is above positive 400 or below minus 400 as an all-or-nothing day. In the 1990s, all-or-nothing days were generally uncommon. There were seven years in the decade where there wasn’t more than one occurrence in an entire calendar year, and there were three with none. As ETFs became more popular at the turn of the century allowing investors to buy or sell every stock in the index with one trade, the frequency of all-or-nothing days really picked up and peaked during the Financial Crisis when there were four straight years with more than 45. With all-or-nothing days occurring at a much more regular frequency in the last several weeks (and especially days), 2022 is giving some of those years from the Financial Crisis a run for their money. After three straight occurrences in a row (matching the total for all of 2017), the S&P 500 has now had 38 all-or-nothing days this year, putting 2022 on pace for 48. At that rate, this year would rank tied for third with 2010 trailing only 2011’s total of 70 and 2008's total of 52.
