The Long Term Investor

I hope this is not a HARBINGER of things to come in this country......in terms of various state, city, union, and other pension plans. Of course this recession and the market drop has been a DISASTER for the Baby Boom generations as they are retiring by the millions.

Jamie Dimon says expect ‘other surprises’ from choppy markets after U.K. pensions nearly imploded

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/jam...arkets-after-uk-pensions-nearly-imploded.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says investors should expect more blowups after a crash in U.K. government bonds last month nearly caused the collapse of hundreds of that country’s pension funds.
• “My experience in life has been when you have things like what we’re going through today, there are going to be other surprises,” Dimon told analysts on Friday.
• Markets will continue to be volatile so long as the Federal Reserve is boosting rates and shrinking its massive balance sheet, Dimon said.

CEO Jamie Dimon says investors should expect more blowups after a crash in U.K. government bonds last month nearly caused the collapse of hundreds of that country’s pension funds.

The turmoil, triggered after the value of U.K. gilts nosedived in reaction to fiscal spending announcements, forced the country’s central bank into a series of interventions to prop up its markets. That averted disaster for pension funds using leverage to juice returns, which were said to be within hours of collapse.

“I was surprised to see how much leverage there was in some of those pension plans,” Dimon told analysts Friday in a conference call to discuss third-quarter results. “My experience in life has been when you have things like what we’re going through today, there are going to be other surprises.”

The Federal Reserve’s campaign to subdue high inflation here in the U.S. has been felt around the world. A historic surge in the value of the dollar has pushed down overseas currencies and sovereign debt, and complicated other countries’ battle with inflation.

The upshot: Leverage that had been hiding in unexpected places, like U.K. pension funds, will continue to unwind, according to Dimon.

“Someone is going to be off-sides,” Dimon said. “We don’t see anything that looks systemic, but there is leverage in certain credit portfolios, there’s leverage in certain companies, so you’re probably going to see some of that.”

Dimon added that while the U.S. banking system was “extraordinarily strong,” thanks mostly to post-2008 financial crisis reforms, markets will continue to be volatile so long as the Fed is boosting rates and shrinking its massive balance sheet.

Markets have become more fragile in the last decade after banks were forced to hold much more capital to trade assets, making them far less active during volatile times.

Mishaps could manifest in emerging markets or at hedge funds with high leverage, Dimon said.

Analysts and investors have warned that the Fed is at risk of upsetting market stability as it boosts interest rates; the central bank has little choice, however, as it views inflation as the more pernicious threat."

MY COMMENT

TYPICAL.....pension funds that should have the absolute highest level of......FIDUCIARY RESPONSIBILITY.....taking huge gambles with leverage and risky investments to try to prop up their returns. We often see the same thing in this country.

Of course......somehow they usually manage to get bailed out by the politicians. On the other hand.....the little people....their 401K or IRA or other personal pension plan.....NEVER gets bailed out.

 

As usual my little 200 mile road trip and my one show this week (tomorrow)....will be the highlight of my week.

Before I leave....hopefully......I will be biding on a painting by phone in an auction. I am hoping that it does not shoot right past my budget. If I do get it.....with the painting that I got the other day and this one.....it will trigger a huge game of "musical walls".....as we move about 6 paintings around to rearrange a couple of walls of art.

The painting that I am trying to get tomorrow was done in 1917 and is pictured in the primary book on the life of the artist. I am hoping that few potential buyers know this.....since the book is fairly rare, and the auction catalog does not mention it. Most of the art that is hanging on the walls in our house was done between about 1900 and 1940. Every year that goes by.....we see more paintings on our walls hitting 100 yeas old.

As paintings age year after year.....it is a constant reminder that as a collector.....you are only a TEMPORARY CUSTODIAN and PROTECTOR......of the item for future generations.

 

EVERYONE......have a GREAT WEEKEND......we all deserve it.

 

THIS person should be removed from office and disciplined.....and if possible prosecuted. There is absolutely NO EXCUSE for this.

Federal Reserve probing Bostic’s trading after blackout period transactions

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/fed...ading-after-blackout-period-transactions.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• The Federal Reserve is looking into trades that Raphael Bostic, the head of the central bank’s Atlanta district, made during restricted periods.
• Bostic said the violations were not intentional and occurred because of his reliance on a third-party manager who was handling his investments.

The Federal Reserve is looking into trades that Raphael Bostic, the head of the central bank’s Atlanta district, made during restricted periods.

In the wake of disclosures that there were multiple incidents over the past several years in which Bostic’s investment activity violated Fed restrictions and blackout periods, the central bank said its Office of Inspector General would be reviewing the matter further. There also were incidents were Bostic incorrectly reported his assets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell “has asked the Office of Inspector General for the Federal Reserve Board to initiate an independent review of President Bostic’s financial disclosures,” a Fed spokesman said. “We look forward to the results of their work and will accept and take appropriate actions based on their findings.”

Trading by Fed officials over the past several years has been a hot-button issue. Disclosures that multiple officials had been involved in investment moves at a time when the Fed was taking steps to support markets preceded the early retirements of two regional presidents, Eric Rosengren of Boston and Robert Kaplan of Dallas.

There also were disclosures that Powell had been involved in trades during blackout periods in 2020. Trades from former Vice Chair Richard Clarida also came under question, though the inspector general cleared both officials of wrongdoing.

The controversy also led to a revised policy that severely restricts the moves Fed officials can make.

Bostic said that in his case the violations were not intentional and occurred because of his reliance on a third-party manager who was handling his investments. He said his investments are in accounts in which neither he nor his investment advisor can direct.

In a statement issued along with his amended disclosure forms, Bostic apologized for the controversy.

“I recognize it is my responsibility to understand and abide by every obligation of this office,” he said. “I want to be clear: at no time did I knowingly authorize or complete a financial transaction based on nonpublic information or with any intent to conceal or sidestep my obligations of transparent and accountable reporting.”

He also noted in the statement that his holdings of Treasurys in 2021 exceeded limits outlined in Fed guidelines. The Fed sets interest rates through the use of its fed funds rate, which generally has a close correlation with Treasury yields.

On top of previous regulations in place, the Fed in February added to restrictions on what its members can do. The new regulations prohibit top officials from holding individual stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies, along with other assets. Those rule changes also mandated a review from both the Atlanta district and the Fed’s main D.C. operation, leading to the disclosures of Bostic’s filing mistakes.

“We welcome this review and will cooperate fully to ensure this matter is effectively resolved,” the Atlanta Fed said in a statement.

Controversy over the investment moves from Fed officials hit following reports, first in the Wall Street Journal, that some members had engaged in trading around the time that policymakers were contemplating taking actions in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

The Fed ended up slashing benchmark interest rates to near-zero and implementing an aggressive bond-buying program that added nearly $5 trillion to the central bank’s balance sheet.

“I sincerely regret if my actions raise questions about my standards, behavior, or motivation, the Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s systems and processes to maintain the public trust, or the commitment of the Federal Reserve to transparency and accountability in fulfilling its mission,” Bostic said."

MY COMMENT

Total BS. These....."elites"....get away with this stuff all the time.....with no consequences. Of course he throws his investment manager under the bus.

Lets see.....multiple incidents......violating numerous black out periods.....numerous reporting violations....etc, etc, etc. These people are required to sign off on these reports and disclosures....they know very well what they own and what trades are being made.

Here is more detail on this....little inadvertent mistake:

"Bostic, who has led the Atlanta Fed since 2017, released new documents outlining multiple violations, including trades made through third-party financial advisers during the Fed’s “blackout” periods and other times of market stress, when officials are barred from a range of financial activities. Bostic’s corrected disclosures also note that he filed incomplete information for each year of his presidency, and that he held more than $50,000 in U.S. Treasury funds last year, which exceeded the permissible limit at the time for top officials."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/14/bostic-fed-trading/

 

I have talked about this many, many times......about where working from home leads. SEE THE FUTURE PEOPLE.....this is what you get. Once your company gets into the grove of people working remotely......."you".....will no longer have a job. It will be outsourced to another country. At that point there will be absolutely no reason to keep highly paid American workers on-board.

Boeing Starts Layoffs in Finance and Accounting, Will Outsource the Work to India

https://www.goingconcern.com/boeing...-accounting-will-outsource-the-work-to-india/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Boeing will eliminate about 150 positions in finance and accounting in October as part of an effort to streamline these departments’ operations and will outsource this work to a firm in India.

Boeing told nonunion corporate staff in an all-hands virtual meeting this month that it will begin outsourcing finance and accounting jobs to Tata Consultancy Services of India.

Boeing said Tuesday that about 150 jobs nationwide will be cut in the first batch of layoffs, with more to come next year and thereafter. The first layoff notices will go out in October.

“The Finance team is planning for lower staffing levels as it simplifies processes, improves efficiency and shares select work with an outside partner,” Boeing said in a statement, adding that it “will assess future impacts as the process continues in the coming years.”

A still-employed senior finance employee at Boeing who spoke to the Times on condition of anonymity said: “It was kind of a shock the way they rolled it out. They had the all-hands enterprise meeting and then four days later everyone was moved into new organizations with new managers.”

Managers at Tata began consulting with Boeing finance and accounting managers this week to identify the work they’ll take over and once that’s done, Boeing will start letting people know if they’re laid off. This includes some management employees, Seattle Times said. And before they leave, the soon-to-be-let-go employees are expected to train Tata personnel in Boeing procedures “to smooth the handover of the work.”

The planned layoffs are part of a broad and concerted Boeing effort in recent years to cut nonunion corporate jobs.

“Several of our corporate functions, including Information Technology and Finance, have implemented changes to streamline their operations, resulting in lower staffing levels” in those areas, Boeing said Tuesday.

That push began with moves to get rid of IT work that could be done more cheaply elsewhere and was not seen as central to Boeing’s business."

MY COMMENT

Once you are simply a talking head on a computer screen....the next step will be to FIRE YOU and outsource your job to India or another country.

If you are smart you will welcome going back to work in the office at your company.

The savings to any company doing this is MASSIVE. No Social Security payments....about 7%. No matching of 401K contributions.....huge. No withholding or accounting for income taxes and NONE of the other HR costs of having real employees. No severance costs after the initial lay-offs. No medical, dental, or other benefit premiums. Lower wages.

BASICALLY......NO EMPLOYEES except for the minimum. WAKE UP PEOPLE.....you are going to be training your replacements.....it is just a matter of time. The cost savings is just too MASSIVE for companies to not do this.

The REMOTE WORK PUSH....is going to make you IRRELEVANT. BUT....dont worry....you can get a new job in the service industries here is the good old USA. BUMMER.....that you will be working for $20 per hour rather than your BIG SALLARY.

NICE.....how they told everyone they were being outsourced out of a job in a....."VIRTUAL"....meeting.

 

My little....local....real estate update. We continue about the same as the past few months. There are 47 active listings in an area of about 4200 homes. The lowest price is in the mid $550,000 area. The low end of the markets....$550,000 to about $700,000 is much more active than the high end of the market. Buyers are STILL buying in the low end since this is a very desirable area.......and over time prices will always continue to rise.

Prices dont seem to be dropping much...and are not increasing either. In the high end homes, it appears to be a stand off between buyers and sellers. I would say that in the higher priced homes it is taking much longer to sell....perhaps 4-6 months. In the high end homes we are probably in a NEUTRAL market at the moment.

 

How true Smokie. When I think back on my years as a small business owner......I often wonder how I would ever be able to do what I did if I was trying to do it today.

 

i like any article that is RATIONAL and tends toward the POSITIVE.

There’s good news hidden’ in the current market turmoil

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/it-i...ere-the-stock-market-is-headed-161328048.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks ended another volatile week lower with the S&P 500 declining 1.6%. The index set a closing low of 3,577.03 on Wednesday and an intraday low of 3,491.58 on Thursday. From its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56, the S&P is now down 25.2%.

It is incredibly difficult to predict where the stock market is headed in the short run.

And just because recent performance has been poor doesn’t necessarily mean we’re due for a quick, outsized rally. It doesn’t necessarily mean that prices should tank further either.


“There is very little relationship between trailing returns and future returns,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote on Wednesday.

Lazzara compiled and charted the historical data to argue his point

“These data comprise every nine-month period since 1971, not just the January-September intervals; the exact correlation between the last nine months’ returns and the next nine months’ returns is 0.006,” he wrote. “A statistician’s best guess of the next nine months’ returns would simply reflect the median return of the series, ignoring whatever the last nine months’ returns had actually been.”
He added that “there’s good news hidden” in that reality: “The market has no memory; the best guess of future returns does not depend on the immediate past.”

It’s important to note that this doesn’t imply that it’s a coin toss whether stocks go up or down at any given point in time. Lest we forget, the stock market usually goes up.

Lazzara broke up the dataset to to show the median returns over the next nine months by deciles based on trailing returns. As you can see, the median future returns are all significantly positive, ranging from 7.6% to 11.1% across the deciles.
“Over all nine-month periods in the last 50 years, the median return was 9.5%,” Lazzara said. “When historical returns were in the bottom decile, the median return in the next nine months was 10.8%, a not-inconsiderable improvement over the global median.“

Now it’s at this point I have to remind you that you shouldn’t expect average outcomes in the short run. Also, just because stocks usually go up doesn’t mean stocks always go up.

However, these averages have historically materialized for long-term investors with the patience and stomach to ride the frequent ups and less frequent downs of the market.

There were a few notable data points from last week to consider:

Reviewing the macro crosscurrents:

Inflation remains a problem. The consumer price index (CPI) in September was up 8.2% from a year ago. Adjusted for food and energy prices, core CPI was up 6.6%, the highest print since August 1982. Both measures were hotter than economists’ expectations.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI was up 0.4% and core CPI was up 0.6%. Again, both measures were hotter than expected.
Goods inflation cools, services inflation heats up. Wells Fargo separated goods inflation and services inflation. The former has been cooling as the latter has been heating up. Perhaps a reflection of the ongoing trend of consumer spending more money “doing stuff” and less money “buying stuff.”
Here’s a more detailed look at what drove the month-over-month increase in prices. Energy and vehicle prices have been on the decline. But shelter prices have been hot, according to the CPI report.

Shelter prices inflate inflation. High home prices and rents where reflected in hot shelter prices,1 which was up 6.6% year-over-year and 0.7% month-over-month. This chart from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough shows how shelter prices have become a big driver of the hot CPI prints.
However, a number of economists were quick to caution that the way shelter prices are measured in the CPI report suggest the input may reflect lagged data. From Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson: “Worrying about exploding rent inflation? It probably doesn't have much more to run. The chart shows second differences of the Zillow rent index and the CPI version, lagged six months.“

Realtor.com data shows rents are still up from year ago, but have turned lower on a monthly basis.

Redfin data also showed rents were falling on a monthly basis.

According to CoStar data, rents in September fell in 75% of markets tracked by Apartments.com.
Here’s SGH Macro’s Tim Duy on CPI: “This data is lagging asking rents indices by about four quarters, which means that the recent decline in asking rents might not be reflected in lower shelter inflation until the second half of next year. The Fed is aware of this lag, and the question posed in the markets is when will they moderate the pace of rate hikes to account for it? … The problem for the Fed is not shelter, or used cars, or new cars, or any other one-off component that is used to explain any one report. The problem is that underlying, persistent inflation has risen – and depending on the measure might be anywhere from 6-8%.“

Prices for imported goods fall. Import prices fell 1.2% month-over-month in September. This is the third straight month of declines (-1.1% in August and -1.4% in July). Much of this can be explained by lower commodity prices and the ascent of the U.S. dollar.

Freight costs are down. Global freight prices are “down around 70% since their lofty peaks this time last year,” Deutsche Bank analysts observed.

Inflation expectations heat up a little. From the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers: “The median expected year-ahead inflation rate rose to 5.1%, with increases reported across age, income, and education. Last month, long run inflation expectations fell below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021, but since then expectations have returned to that range at 2.9%. After 3 months of expecting minimal increases in gas prices in the year ahead, both short and longer run expectations rebounded in October.“

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations was a bit mixed: “Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations continued to decline in September, falling by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%, its lowest reading since September 2021. In contrast, three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.9% from 2.8% in August…“
Mortgage rates jump. From Freddie Mac: “Rates resumed their record-setting climb this week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching its highest level since April of 2002. We continue to see a tale of two economies in the data: strong job and wage growth are keeping consumers’ balance sheets positive, while lingering inflation, recession fears and housing affordability are driving housing demand down precipitously. The next several months will undoubtedly be important for the economy and the housing market.“
Social Security benefits to jump in 2023. From the Social Security Administration: “Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 8.7% in 2023, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.“
JPMorgan economists noted: “Social security benefits currently account for only about 7% of disposable income), so the COLA will be only one of many factors that impact the outlook for income. But given the magnitude of this year’s COLA, we think the effects of the increase in social security benefits could be pretty noticeable at the start of 2023. We think the COLA will boost the monthly change in disposable income by about 0.6% in January and we estimate that the annualized change in real disposable income in 1Q could be lifted by almost 2.5%-pts. The added income early next year should also provide some support for consumer spending and/or saving.“


Unemployment claims remain low. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 228,000 during the week ending Oct. 8, up from 219,000 the week prior. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.
Some of the recent jump in claims appear to be related to the recent hurricanes. As JPMorgan economists observed, “…initial claims filings jumped by 38,000 over the latest two reported weeks, but about 40% of this increase came from filings in Puerto Rico and Florida.”

Retail sales are holding up. Retail sales in September were flat from the previous month but continue to hover near record levels. Excluding autos and gas, sales climbed by 0.3% during the period.
Restaurants and bars, grocery stores, health and personal care stores, clothing stores, and department stores saw growth. Meanwhile, furniture stores, electronics stores, sporting goods stores, and gas stations saw declines.

Spending among teens is cooling. From Piper Sandler’s semi-annual “Taking Stock With Teens” survey: “Teen ‘self-reported’ spending was up 3% Y/Y to $2,331, and down 2% vs. last Spring.“
The entrepreneurial spirit is alive. From the Census Bureau: “Business Applications for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation, were 425,741, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 2022.“
“Projected Business Formations (within 4 quarters) for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation, were 30,935, an increase of 1.0 percent compared to August 2022.“

Putting it all together

While there are many signs that prices in the economy are easing, aggregate measures of inflation remain very high.

So prepare for things to cool further given that the Fed is clearly resolute in its fight to get inflation under control. Recession risks will continue to intensify and analysts will continue trimming their forecasts for earnings. For now, all of this makes for a conundrum for the stock market and the economy until we get “compelling evidence” that inflation is indeed under control.

The good news is there’s still a strong case to be made that any downturn won’t turn into economic calamity. This is corroborated by the fact that there’s been no collapse in consumer spending, which has been supported by the resilient labor market and rising incomes.

And while markets have had a terrible year so far, the long-run outlook for stocks continues to be positive."

MY COMMENT

Some good data in this article about the markets over 9 month time spans. Although, the current time is UNIQUE and it is impossible to draw average comparisons to any one specific time period.

As I have said before....it is all going to be about....EARNINGS and the ELECTION.

I like the part of the artilce......"Reviewing The Macro Crosscurrents"....toward the middle to the end. It is a pretty good summary of where we stand with various components of the economy right now.

 

Futures......are uniformly UP right now. Does it mean anything.....NOPE. We head into the last half of October tomorrow. We also head into the GUTS of the earnings over the next 4-5 weeks.

 

I have ZERO interest in these funds.....or investing money with Cathie Wood. I am not inclined to bet on someone that has a SINGLE good year as an investment manager.

Ark's Cathie Wood Continues to Stumble
Soaring interest rates and weak economic growth have dented Wood’s young, 'disruptive' technology companies.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ark-cathie-wood-continues-stumble?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It’s been a rough 2022 for famed money manager Cathie Wood, chief executive of Ark Investment Management, as her exchange-traded funds sink.

Wood’s flagship fund, Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) , plunged 64% year to date through Oct. 14, hitting a five-year low. Ark Innovation has tumbled 79% from its February 2021 record high.

Soaring interest rates and sluggish economic growth have dented Wood’s young, “disruptive” (as she describes them) technology companies. Rising rates hurt them because their earnings stream will come down the road (if at all), while the safe yields of Treasury bonds are rising now.

Ark Innovation’s biggest holding, electric vehicle titan Tesla (TSLA) , has lost 42% year to date. No. 2, video conferencing company Zoom Video Communications (ZM) , has plummeted 61%. And No. 3, video streaming service Roku (ROKU) , has dived 78%.

Wood calls this year’s descent by tech stocks a buying opportunity. And she defends her recent losses by noting that she has a five-year investment horizon.

Five-Year Underperformance

The five-year track record of Ark Innovation could indeed give investors comfort up to May 9. The fund’s five-year return beat that of the S&P 500 until then.

But the five-year annualized return of Ark Innovation totaled a paltry 1.07% through Oct. 14, far behind the S&P 500’s 8.93% return, according to Morningstar.

Despite that underperformance, the $6.7 billion fund enjoyed a net inflow of $1.27 billion year to date through Oct. 13, according to VettaFi, an ETF research firm. Clearly many investors are loyal to Mama Cathie, as some fans call her.

But the tide may be starting to turn. Over the five days through Oct. 13, Ark Innovation suffered a $204 million outflow.

Investor Loyalty

You might wonder why so many investors have stuck with Wood, despite her mediocre returns. The fact that she had one spectacular year certainly helps. Ark Innovation ETF skyrocketed 153% in 2020.

Also, Wood has become something of a rock star in the investment world. She has appeared frequently in the media over the last couple years. She is clearly intelligent and articulate, explaining financial concepts in ways that novice investors can understand.

Still, Wood has drawn detractors. On March 29, Morningstar analyst Robby Greengold issued a scathing critique of Ark Innovation.

“ARKK shows few signs of improving its risk management or ability to successfully navigate the challenging territory it explores,” he wrote.

Wood countered Greengold’s points in an interview with Magnifi Media by Tifin. “I do know there are companies like that one [Morningstar] that do not understand what we're doing,” she said.

If Wood’s investment performance rebounds, her true believers will say, “I told you so.” If it doesn’t, it will be interesting to see how long investors are willing to stick with her."

MY COMMENT

I strongly DOUBT the ability of Cathie Wood to pull her strategy off. BUT......who knows. One thing is sure......she will continue to be a MEDIA DARLING......and....she certainly has a massive PR presence.

 

As we wait for the open today......with the futures strongly UP......this is what you get when you invest in Chinese companies.


China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics

https://dnyuz.com/2022/10/17/china-...lease-of-g-d-p-and-other-economic-statistics/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"BEIJING — China, the world’s second-largest economy, announced without explanation on Monday that it was delaying indefinitely the release of economic data that had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, including closely watched numbers for economic growth from July through September, which had been expected to show continued lackluster performance.

The delay by China’s National Bureau of Statistics comes as the country’s ruling elite has gathered in Beijing for a weeklong, twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party. The authorities have taken elaborate measures to prevent any disruptions during the gathering, from halting almost all travel into Beijing to requiring frequent Covid-19 tests across practically the entire country.

Large countries seldom postpone the release of even a single economic statistic for fear of hurting financial confidence, much less the broad array of market-moving data that China’s National Bureau of Statistics has now delayed. In addition to deferring the release of gross domestic product data for the third quarter, the government agency also postponed the release of September data for retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment and other categories.

“I’ve not come across before a situation where a whole raft of statistical reporting has just been postponed, in nearly half a century of monitoring data releases — not even in times of pestilence and conflict,” said George Magnus, a former chief economist of UBS who is now an associate at the China Center at Oxford University.

Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, had taken an upbeat tone about the Chinese economy during a news conference on Monday morning at the media center of the party congress.

“Judging from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter — from a global perspective, China’s economic performance is still outstanding,” he said.

After the close of trading on Chinese stock exchanges on Monday afternoon, the National Bureau of Statistics canceled its quarterly news conference, which had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, and updated its online calendar of data releases to show many categories as “delayed.”

Another agency, the General Administration of Customs, had separately failed last Friday to follow its own previously issued schedule for the release of export and import statistics for September. The release of those numbers has also been delayed indefinitely.

The delays come as Chinese officials have been trying to rebut growing criticisms from foreign economists and multinational corporations that China now puts politics and ideology ahead of economic performance. Mr. Zhao said on Monday morning that because of the government’s pandemic policies and emphasis on economic development, “China’s economic stabilization and improvement will be further consolidated.”

Western economists had been predicting that China would announce on Tuesday morning that the economy grew a little more than 3 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. That would be better than growth of just 0.4 percent in the second quarter, when a two-month pandemic lockdown in Shanghai severely depressed many industries’ output.

But it would still be far below Beijing’s target, set last March, that growth this year would be “about 5.5 percent.”

As China has grown to become the world’s largest manufacturer and a major trading power, and home to some of the world’s biggest banks, it has repeatedly struggled with how its Communist Party-dominated political structure communicates with financial markets.

For example, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced with almost no explanation in August 2015 that it was devaluing the country’s currency, the renminbi, by nearly 2 percent. The move was intended as a technical measure connected to bringing the renminbi into the International Monetary Fund’s system of reserve currencies.

But the sudden move contributed considerably to a panic in financial markets in China and abroad that lasted into the following winter, driving down share prices in China and causing investors to move hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country."

MY COMMENT

EVEN this little article downplays the TOTAL opaque nature of anything to do with economics, the economy, banking, or business in China. It downplays the FACT that ALL banking, business, companies, etc, etc in China is controlled by the Chinese communist government.

This is why I will NEVER invest in a Chinese company. They are ALL controlled and operating at the behest of the most brutal communist dictatorship in the world. I dont know why anyone in the media would pretend to be surprised when this type of event occurs.

We are FOOLS for allowing ANY Chinese company to be traded in this country. Of course.....we have a history of being TOTAL FOOLS when it comes to China and business starting with allowing them to be under the WTO.

Invest in Chinese companies ans sooner or later you get what you deserve.......just ask Jack Ma.

 

Speaking of owning Chinese companies.....apparently there are some investors that are walking back such investments.

What Warren Buffet bailing on Chinese economy signifies as tensions rise

https://nypost.com/2022/10/15/warren-buffet-bails-as-chinese-economy-flounders-tensions-rise/

This is an "opinion piece".....so i will leave it to readers to click on it and read it if they wish. You all know my view on this sort of investing.

 

I like this little article.....good RATIONAL advice and commentary.

What a Stock Market Bottom Looks Like

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/what-a-stock-market-bottom-looks-like/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"There’s an old saying that they don’t ring a bell for you at the top.

I know this to be true because investors spent more than 10 years during the bull market of the 2010s calling everything they saw a top.

The regime changes are rarely obvious until after the fact.


The same is true when trying to call a bottom during a bear market.

They don’t announce these things over a PA for everyone to hear.

YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE. THE COAST IS CLEAR. THE STOCK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED. IT’S SAFE TO INVEST AGAIN.

Life would be easier if this was the case. But if everything was obvious in the stock market it wouldn’t offer such wonderful long-term returns.

I went down a stock market rabbit hole on YouTube this week and somehow stumbled on this clip of news stories from March 9, 2009:

March 9, 2009 just happens to be the bottom of one of the worst market crashes in stock market history. The S&P 500 fell nearly 60% over an 18-month period.


It certainly wasn’t obvious at the time that day was THE bottom.


Unfortunately, it never is.

The 2008 crash was my first real financial crisis while working in the finance industry. It was a scary time.

Even at the depths of the crisis it felt like things were only going to get worse.

Even with the current bear market that has seen the S&P 500 fall by 25%, the stock market is up nearly 600% or more than 15% per year since that day:


Pretty good.

I don’t share these fantastic returns to show how easy it is to invest from the depths of a bear market.


On the contrary, this is an important reminder of how difficult it is to nail the bottom during a freefall in stocks.

I wish it was easy but there are no all-clear signals to tell you when the dust is going to settle. Just look at various fundamental indicators at the bottom of every bear market since 1945:


If you look at interest rates, valuations, inflation rates and dividend yields for every one of these bottoms there isn’t much consistency.

Sometimes valuations reach rock bottom levels but not always. Sometimes bond yields are high when stocks bottom and sometimes they’re low.

Dividend yields have spiked during past market crashes but there is no line in the sand. And inflation rates are all over the place so even if you know what price levels will look like 6-12 months from now it still might not help you predict where the stock market will be.

You could try to use the economy as a tell for the stock market but good luck with that.


This is going to sound dumb but the best indicator that lets you know when a bear market is over is price.


The bear market will be over when stock prices start moving higher.

The thing is every time stocks begin going up in times like these, it will feel like a bear market rally or dead cat bounce that’s going to fizzle out.


But one of those bear market rallies that feels like it’s a head fake is going to eventually turn into the net bull market.

There is just no way to tell when this will happen ahead of time.

This is the joy of investing in risk assets.

Sometimes you simply need to have a little faith and a lot of patience."

MY COMMENT

EVERYONE knows this....yet it is very difficult to be an investor and hold on till the bottom and the turn-around from a bear market.

It is very hard psychologically and emotionally to see your money evaporating.

Unfortunately....that is exactly what you have to do.....as you wait for the INEVITABLE bottom and the return to the default stock market trend of positive returns to resume.

 

So.....here we are at the start of a new week.....nearly an hour into the markets today.....and ALL the averages are NICELY UP.

It is so nice to be done with all the "crap" that we had to endure last week.....the FED minutes, the PPI, the CPI, and all the commentary that went along with it all. We are also done with the start of earnings that kicked off last week with many of the big banks.

This week is.....another.....fresh start for investors as we TRUDGE toward the end of the year.

 

Here is what is going on in the markets.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rally ahead of big Q3 earnings week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-october-17-2022-114730117.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks soared early Monday as investors assembled for a big week of corporate earnings.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rallied 2.1% at the start of the session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 500 points, or 1.7%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 2.6%.

The moves come after a roller-coaster week on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 log its fifth-largest intraday reversal from a low in history Thursday, even as consumer price data showed inflation continued a stubborn run across the U.S. economy last month. Still, the benchmark index ended the week lower.

Wall Street will turn its attention to how Corporate America is holding up against the backdrop of persistently high prices and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize them as businesses roll out third-quarter financials. Bellwethers including Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are scheduled to unveil results through Friday.

The start of Q3 earnings season has been weaker than usual, with smaller than average positive earnings and revenue surprises from results that have come out so far. Of roughly 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported third-quarter figures to date, 69% have notched earnings per share above estimates – below the five-year average beat of 77%, according to FactSet Research.

Bank of America (BAC) was the penultimate of the country’s six largest banks by assets to report earnings Monday morning. Shares rose more than 3% pre-market trading after the company revealed trading revenue that beat Wall Street estimates. Like its peers, however, the bank saw profit slump during the period as it set aside funds for uncollected loan payments in the event of increased defaults if the economy enters a recession.

Central bank drama continued across the Atlantic to start the week. The Bank of England on Monday morning said it would restart bond sales next week after an emergency rescue intervention that involved a pause on selling to stabilize financial markets. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt also reversed most of the fiscal package that prompted the sell-off in U.K. assets, including plans to cut taxes. Sterling jumped by as much as 1.4% following the turnaround on the economic agenda."

MY COMMENT

OBVIOUSLY....nothing except EARNINGS going on this week. Thank God. Now if we could only get the FED members to sit down and shut up we might be able to have a good week or two.

My view of today is that it is another indicator that we hit a bottom on Friday....once again. I have hit this bottom about 3 times so far this year....at the same level as Friday. Each time there is an upward move. We are also seeing the continued massive erratic moves each time we hit the general bottom that we saw last Friday.

In my view......where the markets ended last Friday......is the soft bottom. So far the markets REFUSE to go below that level. BUT.....we remain stuck in a news driven bear market.....so any sort of very negative event has great potential to move the markets further down.

As to early earnings with about 7% of the SP500 reporting so far and about 70% having BEAT estimates.......this is GREAT. This is far better.....so far....than what all the hand wringing commentators and speculators led us to believe earnings would be like.

 

This past Saturday I participated by phone in yet another art auction. I was able to get the painting that I wanted below the low estimate. It actually ended about where I expected.....since in my view the estimate was too high and not realistic. In general the entire Auction was very strong.

Here is a little "COLLECTING" story of the day. Gives new meaning to the phrase ......"pre-owned jeans".

Preworn Levi's jeans from 1880s found in mine sold for $87,000
The more than a century ago jeans feature frayed hems, fade marks, paint stains and several holes

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/preworn-levis-jeans-1880s-found-mine-sold-87000


"A pair of used Levi's jeans from the 1880s that were discovered in an abandoned mine shaft sold at an auction in New Mexico for $87,000.

The jeans, which were found in the mine a few years ago, were purchased by two men — Kyle Hautner and Zip Stevenson — for more than $75,000 plus a 15% buyer’s premium. Stevenson is the owner of a vintage denim store in Los Angeles.

The two men placed their winning bid at the Durango Vintage Festivus.

The pants, which feature frayed hems, fade marks, paint stains and several holes, could still be worn despite their poor shape, Stevenson said. A couple of similar pairs of jeans exist, but remain in museums and are too delicate to wear.



A pair of used Levi's jeans discovered in an abandoned mine shaft were sold at an auction in New Mexico for $87,000. (Instagram/denimdoctors)

Stevenson said offers from a private buyer would be considered but that he would prefer the jeans to be purchased and displayed in a museum, such as the Smithsonian or the Metropolitan Museum of Art. The jeans are currently staying in a safety deposit box in Los Angeles. People can view the jeans by booking an appointment at Stevenson's store.

The jeans have a 38-inch waist and 32-inch length."

MY COMMENT

The "force" in the collecting markets remains STRONG. The best of the best.....in any category is where the strength is in the markets for collectables. As a collector it is.....as usual......a strong market for items that are superior quality.

One of my few collecting MANTRA'S in action....QUALITY TRUMPS QUANTITY.....always buy the best of any item that you can afford.

 

Having just looked.....I am seeing a BOOM in my account so far today. Now if we can just grow this into the close today we will be good.

Here is MY earnings calendar for my ten stocks.....some of these dates are still tentative.

TSLA 10-19-22
MSFT 10-25-22
GOOGL 10-25-22
AAPL 10-27-22
AMZN 10-27-22
HON 10-27-22
HD 11-15-22
NVDA 11-16-22
COST 12-08-22
NKE 12-20-22

THIS IS WHAT I REALLY LOOK FORWARD TO AS AN INVESTOR. I want to see how the companies that I own are doing. This is the GUTS of why I own what I own.

 

A BEAUTIFUL day in the markets today. It shows what the underlying strength in the markets is.....if....you get the FED and all the other opinion blather out of the way.

I had 10 of 10 stocks strongly in the GREEN today. You know it is a good day when my WORST stock today was UP by 1.65%.....HON. My best gainer....TSLA....was Up by 7.01%. Everything else was in-between. I got in a great beat on the SP500 today....on a day when it was UP big.........a beat by 0.85%.

After the gains today....I am once again back down into the (-29%) loss range YTD.

My opinion is that the EXTREMELY erratic and big moves we have been seeing lately.....up and down.....are another sign of having reached a market bottom.