GM to all, happy Thursday! Today's pre-market thread is now up on the Reddits for anyone looking for a brief read before today's cash session open. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y8wz7w/1020_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ Meanwhile, here is the quick futes peek as we're coming into just under 45min. from the open. GL to y'all's trading on this Thursday, October the 20th, 2022!
Morning Lineup - 10/20/22 - Opposite Week Thu, Oct 20, 2022 Just over three months ago, Boris Johnson resigned as UK PM, and now this morning, his successor, Liz Truss, just announced she will be stepping down as PM. Do you think she had enough time even to unpack her bags? After trading lower throughout most of the night, S&P 500 futures had flipped modestly into positive territory this morning, but in the immediate aftermath of the resignation announcement, they pulled back closer to unchanged while Nasdaq futures are lower. Treasury yields have been behaving with nothing more than modest moves higher in yields across the curve. Crude, however, is rallying an additional 2%+ and back above $87 per barrel while copper is also up over 2%. Over in China, there was some positive news that the country is considering a reduction of the required quarantine time required for travelers in the country. Here in the US, the general trend in earnings remains primarily positive, but there have been some duds. Tesla (TSLA) is trading lower after reporting weaker-than-expected sales raising concerns over demand, and Allstate (ALL) dropped over 10% after announcing Q3 catastrophe losses of $673 million. Lastly, Alcoa also reported weaker-than-expected EPS and sales and lowered forecasts for shipments, but anyone following the company over the years knows that it is hardly a bellwether. In economic data this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected (214K vs 233K) while Continuing Claims were only slightly higher than forecasts (1.385 million vs 1.378 million). Also, the Philly Fed Manufacturing report for October improved less than expected rising from -9.9 to -8.7 versus forecasts for a reading of negative five. This week's equity market performance has been the opposite of the pattern we have seen this year. Heading into the week, the S&P 500 has averaged negative returns on every weekday this year except Wednesday when the average gain has been 0.20%. This week, the only down day (so far) was Wednesday, and on Monday and Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up well over 1%. While it’s still early, equity futures are once again modestly positive heading into Thursday’s trading. There’s still plenty of time left in the week but wouldn’t that be a welcome trend?
For bulls, this price action is not as promising as it seemed the last few days. It's still possible, but...
The SPX seems range bound between 3800 to 3550. At 3660, the SPX is in that no man's land hell. Could go either way...but the FED tightening... But the funny thing is that the $TRIN has been ranging between .48 to .60 all day--that suggests institutional buying...hmmm
But the key fact seems to be that the SPX normally would be at above 3800 by now. It's not happening. That's odd. Not sufficiently bullish to buy at the 3650 level.
Snap stock down 25% as the social network struggles | TechCrunch Well GOOGL and META are down too after the bell, SPY and QQQ still holding up okay but we will see what happens tomorrow
Boris Johnson Looms as Liz Truss Quits as British Prime Minister After Just 44 Days in Office (thedailybeast.com) Wow she just lasted 44 days, what a big mess in the UK right now
Not what I had wanted, the SPX. This ranging around the 3700 level seems to me possibly creating a range before retesting that 3500 level--the real issue is getting to 3400. So, we'll see if that happens. But unless the FED "pivots," I don't think the bullish case is that strong, even if it's "earnings season"
We are rallying on the FED pivot hope it seems like and the yen rallied all of the sudden I would be surprised to see the FED pivoting already when inflation is still so high but I guess we will see if the language from the FED will change in the coming days/weeks
European stocks also doing well, at the high for the month. Japan double-bottomed at the same time as US was hitting its lows. The bounce is global.
The SPX could be heading up to test the 3850, 3900 or 4000 or even 4000+ level, but I'm not interested. I'm thinking it will have to test that 3500 level at some point, but if not re-visit that 3550 or 3600 level.
Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2022 earnings (cnbc.com) Big misses from Google, tech probably will open in the red tomorrow morning
