It was a BIG RED.....(not the soda)....day for me today. Every stock down. In other words a fairly typical FED day and about what I expected them to do. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.91% today. Thanks.....I feel about as good as the markets. I am starting to think it is a cold and not my Shingrix shot.
Why the short timers continue to fool themselves into thinking there is going to be some sort of pivot.....is beyond me. I have to think it is all positioning and posturing to support their short term trades by suckering people into believing them.
For anyone that wants to wallow in the FED insanity today.....here you go. Stock market news live updates: Stocks tank after Fed hikes by 0.75%, Powell pushes back against pivot https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-2-2022-100823972.html What we see in terms of the markets on these types of days is simply....INSANITY. Over the course of an hour we see the averages go from red to green and back to strongly red....... a 3-5% turnover by the close......in one hour. Totally IRRATIONAL. You have to just laugh at the stupidity of it all. A bunch of people waiting to hear from the FED chief......and hanging on every word. Our government in action.
No doubt tomorrow will be another day of FED FOCUS. The best news of all.....we got this stuff out of the way in the first couple of days of the month. We can now live in peace for the rest of the month. We know that this year will be negative for long term investors. At this point it is just a question of how much. And to keep it all in perspective and illustrate the FOOLISHNESS of it all......this will be ONLY the second negative year in the past.......FOURTEEN YEARS.....for the SP500. The dues that we pay for being long term investors.....and creating family wealth. We start fresh tomorrow.......the past is irrelevant.
A normal FED day open today. People need to get with REALITY.....and let go of the pivot fantasy. It will happen in the future....but not right now. Besides the FED the Ten Year Treasury is nicely UP today. That is what is going on today.
That is what is bad about a bear market.....it is so BORING. You end up stuck in a negative trading range and it goes on and on and on. You just have to celebrate any little rallies as they happen and IGNORE the rest. Sooner or later it always turns around.
HERE is the markets today.....at least to start the day. Stocks tumble after Powell's slower but higher cues https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-3-2022-104257465.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks sank lower early Thursday as Wall Street reeled from assertions by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that hopes for a policy pivot were “premature” after the central bank delivered a fourth consecutive interest rate hike of 75 basis points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.2% at open after the index plunged 2.5% in the previous session, its worst loss on a Fed day since January 2021, per Bloomberg data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 280 points, or 0.9%, and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was off by 1%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields ascended, with the key 10-year note inching towards 4.2%, and the rate-sensitive 2-year yield above 4.7%. The U.S. dollar index also moved higher. The S&P 500's 2.5% loss Wednesday marked its 54th decline of 1% or more in 2022 — the worst downside volatility since 2009, according to Compound Advisors' Charlie Bilello. U.S. investors also had their attention on action across the Atlantic, with the Bank of England following suit on the Fed's move, also raising interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point. Wednesday’s increase brings the Fed’s benchmark policy rate, the federal funds rate, to a new range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level since 2008. Although the move came in line with expectations, stocks sank after Powell indicated officials may lift interest rates above the 4.6% previously estimated – signaling further tightening is certain, even after the policy statement implied hikes may be smaller in size. “The market initially viewed the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement as dovish, but a hawkish press conference caused almost a full reversal of these moves due to comments that the ‘ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected’ and it is 'premature to think about pausing rate hikes,'" economists at Bank of America led by Michael Gapen said. The FOMC’s statement also acknowledged the lagged effects of cumulative monetary tightening, suggesting heightened attention by the rate-setting group to concerns over economic growth. Investors shift their attention now to the all-important jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Figures from the labor department are projected to show a payroll gain of 190,000 for October, according to Bloomberg estimates. The print, if realized, would mark a drop-off of numbers seen across the pandemic recovery but reflect still-robust hiring, with pre-COVID payrolls averaging 150,000-200,000 per month. Powell also said in his speech that “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers.” In corporate news, Elon Musk is reportedly planning to slash roughly half of Twitter’s workforce (3,700 of approximately 7,500 employees), according to a report from Bloomberg News – just one week after closing a dragged-out bid to purchase the social media platform in a $44 billion deal. On the earnings side, shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) sank roughly 8% Thursday morning after the smartphone chipmaker issued a forecast that fell below estimates, citing macroeconomic headwinds and COVID lockdowns in China. Shares of Roku (ROKU) plunged 15% after the company warned of economic pressures and weakness in advertising sales, while also forecasting wider-than-expected loss for the current quarter. Etsy (ETSY) shares rallied 8% in extended trading after the online marketplace reported third-quarter revenue that beat analysts' expectations." MY COMMENT In other words....nothing new to see here.....move on. At the moment and for the future....the markets will continue to be held hostage by the FED. It is AMAZING.....well perhaps not....that over the past year of FED increases......the only impact we have seen is the CRASHING of the stock markets and the pending CRASHING of the housing markets. Jobs, inflation, GDP, anything else......NOTHING. the question is....."does the FED have the actual ability to control the economy, or, are they simply reacting to the economy"?
I like this little article from BLOOMBERG. It really sums up the STUPIDITY of the FED yesterday and the INSANITY of the short term markets. It made me laugh. Bait-and-Switch Powell Puts Lights Out on Half-Hour Market Party https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bait-switch-powell-puts-lights-203832943.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) (Bloomberg) -- Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve did something Wednesday it hadn’t done for months: say something dovish. Investors had all of 30 minutes to celebrate. Like a reproving parent, the Federal Reserve chairman quickly put the kibosh on any budding euphoria his comments about monitoring the lagged effect of interest rate policy might have provoked. Rates are still going up, he reiterated, probably more than people thought. The result was a painful bait-and-switch for stock and bond bulls. After surging 1% in the half-hour after the Fed decision was released, the S&P 500 Index sank when Powell said it was “very premature” to think about the central bank’s historically aggressive tightening cycle taking a pause. The benchmark finished down 2.5% for its worst Fed day performance since January 2021. It was also the first time since 2008 that the S&P dropped more than 1% on two consecutive Fed days, Bloomberg data show. Yields on two-year Treasuries -- the tenor most-sensitive to the expected path of Fed policy -- initially dropped after the statement’s release, only to sharply reverse course and climb nearly 6 basis points as investors priced in a higher terminal rate. The velocity of the S&P 500’s decline, also its worst single-day drop since mid-October, reflects both Powell’s intransigence on rates as well as the unwinding of bets that a more forthright policy pivot was in the offing. The stock index had climbed 8% in the weeks before Wednesday’s meeting, another instance of dashed hopes the Fed would throw investors a more lasting reprieve. “We got 30 minutes before the press conference started -- and then cold water on the doves from Powell,” said Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “It’s a big disconnect in messaging between the large release update and the press conference tone and responses. Confusion has set in on the market versus a solid message.” The market was keyed into every word Powell uttered. After an initial jump, equities reversed when the chairman said the ultimate level of interest rates would be higher than expected. They rose again when he said the shift to a slower pace of hikes could come as soon as the December meeting. But full-blown implosion ensued when he said it was premature to think about pausing the central bank’s rate hike cycle. While whipping up volatility, policy makers succeeded in one goal: putting the possibility of a less-strident Fed on the table without inciting any undue market jubilation. Preventing a full-blown celebration from breaking out matters a lot to Powell given the role of rising stocks in loosening the economic conditions he’s trying to restrict. “The equity market is part of a set of variables that tell them where financial conditions are and so it would be inconsistent with what the Fed is trying to do for equity markets to rally substantially,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg TV. “That is not necessarily what the Fed is trying to achieve.” The final blow for bulls seemed to be Powell’s admission that the ultimate ceiling on the Fed’s hiking campaign may be higher than expected. Traders were quick to react: while pricing for the so-called terminal rate dropped below 5% in the aftermath of the statement, it climbed to 5.1% while Powell spoke. The end game of the Fed’s rate hikes matters more for risk assets than the magnitude of rate increases, according to Bianco Research LLC. “We’re going to focus on, where is the destination?” said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, said in an interview. “The risk markets desperately, desperately want them to stop and what they basically said is they’re not going to stop.”" MY COMMENT YEP.....once again.....any hopes that the FED might be able to clearly communicate are dashed.....as usual. Terrible communication. I dont care about a pivot.....since I did not expect it anyway....but the failure of the FED to communicate what they are doing and why they are doing it is ridiculous. This severely undermines confidence in the economy and the FED. Oh well.......these people are just MORONS. I even agree with the need to normalize rates.....but.....the failure of the FED to even appear to have any rational plan is undermining confidence. They are just reacting.......with no appearance of having a plan or anything else. It might be a good thing if the FED did some training in communication.
We will now be free of the FED till December 13-14. Well...other than their constant media appearances. At least we get to go nearly 1.5 months till we have to deal with the FED raising rates again.
Pretty spot on. As I said yesterday, I actually watched the press conference. I really had not watched JP speak at length previously so I don't know if that is normally how he handles the mic. He was a very poor speaker. Seemed really uncomfortable and lacked confidence. Maybe he is just a poor speaker and even worse at Q&A sessions. I also recall that some members of the FOMC had just recently suggested "slowing" at some point and then the release just prior to the press conference was ran with and caused further uncertainty. They are their own worst enemy at communication. I apparently wasn't the only one who noticed this because as I was watching, news stories began popping up about another 75 hike and then a slowing/reduction was on the horizon. in fact, some of the news sites had multiple contradictory stories listed at the same time. It was a complete crap show to see unravel. They also had a split screen up with JP speaking live and the other side had a graph of the three market indexes up live. You could see the market pop and then dive as he spoke. Quite interesting to see how it reacted in real time. All of that said, I found it interesting, comical, and troubling at the same time. If it were me (glad it's not), but I would select somebody who has excellent communication skills to start with. Second, members should let that guy/gal do the speaking on those specific dates, not everyone else making an appearance/comments everywhere else leading up to it.
THIS is the actual important news today. Toho plans to release a new Japanese Godzilla film next year as the monster’s audience grows https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/godzilla-day-toho-to-release-new-japanese-film-next-year.html AMAZING that Godzilla has now been around for 68 years....since 1954. I was five years old when the first Godzilla movie came out.
Yep Smokie. I understand that the press want to ask questions of the BIG GUY at the FED......but he is such a poor communicator. With their budget you would think that they would have a good PR and communication team that helps them with their message. You would also think that they would spend many hours crafting their message before the press conference. It comes across as totally off the cuff and disorganized.
Looks like the markets still have a hang over from the FED party yesterday. Who wouldn't after that. As far as my long term investing plan, no problem. I am not worried about the things I can't control. It would be a waste of time to do so. I will just keep adding to the pile as time goes on. Time, patience, and confidence in your plan will make all of the difference in the long run.
Agree. I was looking at my account history the other day. It still kind of shocks me.....even though i know it is happening behind the scenes......to see all the dividends that are adding to my account. I dont look at the account history very often. Every penny of that money is being reinvested in the stock that paid it out....at the current super low prices. Going forward that money will contribute greatly to make up for the current short term losses. Long term thinking is the ONLY way to invest for me. I dont know how anyone thinks they could make money over a lifetime of short term trading. The current time shows the futility of trying to somehow anticipate the short term markets. No matter how well informed and educated you are.....it is simply impossible to trade the short term markets and make money over a lifetime. I have seen some really smart....really talented traders....that can put up a good record for 2-4 years. A very difficult achievement. Than all of a sudden they lose it for one year and most of the gains vanish. AND.....I have yet to see anyone put up REAL NUMBERS as a short term trader that include their costs of trading and their short term capital gains taxes (taxed as regular income).
I have no plans to sell anything or do anything. As a long term....fully invested all the time investor......I will do nothing in response to the current short term events and environment. AS USUAL.........HERE is my current PORTFOLIO MODEL. I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 59% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 41% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Microsoft Nike Nvidia Tesla MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (72). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
Another typical day in the markets. I was RED today....medium level. I actually had 5 stocks UP and 5 stocks DOWN today. My Up stocks were NKE, COST, NVDA, HON, and TSLA. some of the mainstream BIG CAP TECH stocks had a pretty good hit today and that dragged me down. I am NOW about 2 days from being back at my YTD low for the.....forth time....this year.
Right now we are on track for a perfect week this week.....DOWN all five days. If we close in the red tomorrow it will be FIVE DAYS in a row. I have not calculated the exact number but I believe I am now back to somewhere around (-30%) to (-31%) YTD. The SP500 is at (-21.95%) YTD. Since year 2002 the SP500 has ONLY been negative THREE YEARS. Those years are: 2002 (-22.60%) 2008 (-37.02%) 2018 (-4.52%) This year will be.....ONLY.....the forth negative year for the SP500 in the last......TWENTY ONE YEARS. Right there you have a great example of the POWER OF LONG TERM INVESTING.
Interesting post above. Kind of takes the edge off of all the noise we have endured this year. There has been a whole lot of stuff thrown at investors this year. Even though we likely have a good distance to climb out of this mess, we eventually will at some point. It is important to keep perspective. Emotion is responsible for derailing many investment plans.
Amazing. I read some of the comments over here about Amazon and I’m just floored. In this world that we live in, I can’t imagine ANYONE writing off Amazon as the most dominant retailer in the states. Amazon is to retail, like what Google is to research. Sure, people still go to libraries you know, but Google is normally where you’d stop first. Yet here we are, clearly in a MESS that the government has gotten us into with spending and lockdowns creating an astronomical inflated bubble, likely at dot com bubble size, and we’re blaming Amazon for poor performance quarters. Seriously?? Look at how any tech company giant performed during the dot com bubble. It was all the same. They all got crushed, and then slowly rebounded. This is it. This is where we are now. You may try and deny it, you may think we’ll be back to normal next year, or the following, but I hate to tell ya, from where I’m standing now I don’t see ANY tech company, little or small, getting back to normal anytime soon. That’s it, deal with it. Now if you wanna sell when the market is LOW. Well then… good luck to you
But guys, if you read the above and felt SOME level of pessimism, please find comfort in the fact that we at least managed to save humanity from the Black Plague AND Trump (Said with GREAT dark sarcasm)
