Of course I agree as usual....Smokie. I believe we are going to see a better shopping season than is predicted this year. We actually nearly always do....over the past ten years. Once again the so called....."experts"....are usually wrong. In addition....there are a lot of big retail companies that have excess inventory on the books. It will help them financially to get that stuff moved on out.
I am starting to get excited to see one of my new paintings. A "picker" found it for me in El Paso....about a month ago. I had him negotiate with the seller....and he got an outstanding price......about half what it is worth. He is gong to be in my area for Thanksgiving.....so I will get the painting from him than. Of course....that will trigger the usual.....wall space musical chairs......as I try to figure out where to hang it. At this point there are about....35 paintings in the core of the house (living room, dining room and study). The spot that I picked out for this painting.....will trigger movement of 4-6 other paintings. Of course that assumes.....that it looks ok in the spot that I have picked for it...without having seen it in person.
WELL.......the worm turns. the markets are making a small come-back at the moment. The DOW is positive and the SP 500 is right on the verge of going positive. Much of the loss in the NASDAQ has also moderated. LETS move on to a positive close today......WE DESERVE IT.
Well, we spoke to soon. The FED is back at their speaking tours sooner than expected. Interesting comment by this guy. This is why they just need one voice from the Chair. Although JP is a very poor communicator in his own right. Everyone has to have their ego stroked out of the group I guess and Waller needs his turn. The only difference I see here is the statement about maybe slowing the increase next month. This will feed the narrative of a pivot once again. Another example of this group continually sending mixed messages. Fed may cut size of rate increases, but is not 'softening' inflation fight, Waller says. WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to lower inflation, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said on Sunday. Markets should now pay attention to the "endpoint" of rate increases, not the pace of each move, and that endpoint is likely still "a ways off," Waller said in response to a series of questions on monetary policy at an economic conference organized by UBS in Australia. "It depends on inflation." "We're at a point we can start thinking maybe of going to a slower pace," Waller said, but "we're not softening...Quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be. Until we get inflation down, that endpoint is still a ways out there." A report released last week showing slower than expected inflation in October was "good news," but was "just one data point" that would have to be followed with other similar readings to show convincingly that inflation is slowing, he said. The 7.7% annualized increase in inflation recorded in October is still "enormous," Waller said, noting that even if the Fed scaled back from three quarter point increases to a half point increase at its next meeting, "you're still going up." "We're going to need to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes," Waller said, adding that he has been further convinced the Fed is on the right path because its rates increases so far have not "broken anything."
Yup I’ve been saying it since that FTX disaster came to be. That is, if anything, the major point of separation from the markets. that is a GOOD thing. sad that it took that long but glad that it did
Looks like they are taking some more firms down with them too. Man, what a train wreck for investors in this. I also notice how some of the mangers are coming out and apologizing for their mistake in getting tied up with FTX. Too little too late. The amount of money lost in this and the others is staggering to me. I think we will see more of this type of thing and into the future. Too many want the easy, get rich quick schemes. Apparently, there is no shortage of that nowadays.
Absolutely. This … Currency… Has one major flaw above all its others - Lack of transparency There’s something that can be said about the asset itself, which is not actually transparent either. The owners of these firms have realized that the investor has a weakness by tapping into the resource itself which doesn’t exist and exploit it based on that knowledge.
Looks like a bit of profit taking in the close today, not surprising from a short term perspective. Tomorrow will be earnings from HD and WMT as mentioned upthread. Will be interesting to see those results and others. We are now about half way through November and fast approaching the holidays. As such, I got snow today in my neck of the woods. Makes for a "holiday feeling" seeing it come down.
Tyson (TSN) earnings beat. Tyson Foods Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Results( Record sales/earnings reported). J & J Snack Foods (JJSF) earnings beat. J&J Snack Foods’ Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter Revenue Increases 23.9% to a Quarterly Record $400.4m Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) earnings beat. (Tower Semiconductor Reports Third Quarter 2022 Record Revenue of $427 Million) Reported by NASDAQ Earnings calendar.
The FED rears it's ugly head today.......and....snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.....as usual. I was in the red solidly today. I had a single UP stock......HON. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.46%. Lucky for us.......when you dissect a line of the SP500 over the long term.....today will be a tiny blip on that line that is meaningless. In addition we get another shot at it tomorrow. There is always......another tomorrow.
I have not really seen anything......but I am hearing of people in the media calling the House for the opposition party. I assume this is now true with the various sources that seem to be saying it. GRIDLOCK......is exactly what Investors need right now. It is going to be bad enough with the Presidential campaigns starting in a few months and running over the next two years.
Two big short term stories today.....first. Walmart lifts annual forecast, announces $20 billion share buyback https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-lifts-annual-forecast-announces-120940577.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) -Walmart Inc on Tuesday lifted its annual sales and profit forecast as demand for groceries holds up despite higher prices, while discounts on clothing and electronics helped it cut back excess inventories ahead of the busy holiday season. The company also raised its full-year net sales expectations ahead of the holiday season and announced a new $20-billion share buyback plan, pushing its shares up 7.3% in premarket trading. Its results boosted stocks of other major retailers, including Target Corp and Macy's Inc. Amid persistent inflation, investors have been nervously eyeing how consumer spending pans out during the crucial holiday season, when retailers make more than a third of their annual profits. "In this period of macroeconomic uncertainty, we believe that we are well equipped to continue gaining market share in an environment where consumers need to stretch their dollars further," Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said on an investor call. The world's largest retailer by sales forecast holiday quarter U.S. same-store sales, excluding fuel, to increase about 3%, below estimates of a 3.4% increase. Rainey said the guidance assumes that consumers could slow spending, especially in general merchandise categories, due to continued rising costs for food. The company's comments follow those of FedEx and Amazon, which have also warned of muted holiday season demand in recent weeks. For the full-year, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based chain forecast net sales to rise 5.5%, above its previous forecast of a 4.5% increase. Walmart also said it was better prepared on the inventory front with many of the challenges it faced earlier this year "cleared out." The company's inventories were up 13% at $65 billion on a value basis, which CFO Rainey said was 70% inflation driven, but on a unit basis was "much lower." Walmart’s strong results prove its operational model excels during times of economic strength ... Walmart is a counter-recessionary retailer," Guru Hariharan, founder and CEO of research firm CommerceIQ said. FOOD INFLATION While U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, a recent survey shows that consumer sentiment slumped in November and inflation expectations had edged up. CFO Rainey told Reuters that the company continued to see a mid-teen level of inflation in food, while general merchandise inflation eased "quite a bit." This continued rise in food prices meant that Americans are trading down from higher quality proteins to beans, hotdogs, peanut butter and store-label brands, he added. This helped it post a rise in third-quarter comparable sales, even though profit margins were impacted. Comparable sales at its Walmart U.S. business rose 8.2%. "Customers that came to us less frequently in the past are now shopping with us more often, including higher-income customers, Walmart's Chief Executive Officer, Doug McMillon, said on an investor call. Average transactions at its Walmart U.S. business rose 2.1% in its third quarter ended Oct. 31, compared with a 1% rise last quarter, while average bills rose 6%. Walmart swung to a third quarter loss of $1.8 billion due to $3.3 billion in legal settlements to resolve U.S. state and local lawsuits accusing it of mishandling opioid pain drugs. Reuters reported Walmart's settlement, along with those of CVS Health Corp and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc earlier this month." MY COMMENT A very good kick off to the day. Here is the basic data: Earnings per share: $1.50 adjusted vs. $1.32 expected Revenue: $152.81 billion vs. $147.75 billion expected A good beat for RETAIL. AND......the best part is their forward looking statements. This may be a good catalyst for a great day today in the markets.......perhaps even a BEAUTIFUL DAY.
AND....the second short term story of the day. Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/who...er-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The producer price index rose 0.2% in October, below the 0.4% estimate. A significant contributor to the slowdown in wholesale inflation was a 0.1% decline in services, the first outright decline in that measure since November 2020. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September. In other economic news, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November registered a reading of 4.5%, much better than the estimate for a -6% reading Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, adding to hopes that inflation is on the wane, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The produce price index, a measure of the prices that companies get for finished goods in the marketplace, rose 0.2% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimates for a 0.4% increase. Stock futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up more than 400 points shortly after the release, reflecting market anticipation that cost of living increases not seen since the early 1980s were easing if not receding. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September and off the all-time peak of 11.7% hit in March. The monthly increase equaled September’s gain of 0.2%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index also rose 0.2% on the month and 5.4% on the year. Excluding just food and energy, the index was flat on the month and up 6.7% on the year. One significant contributor to the slowdown in inflation was a 0.1% decline in the services component of the index. That marked the first outright decline in that measure since November 2020. Final demand prices for goods rose 0.6%, the biggest gain since June an traceable primarily to the rebound in energy, which saw a 5.7% jump in gasoline. The deceleration came despite a 2.7% increase in energy costs and a 0.5% increase in food. The index is generally considered a good leading indicator for inflation as it gauges pipeline prices that eventually work their way into the marketplace. PPI differs from the more widely followed consumer price index as the former measures the prices that producers receive at the wholesale level while CPI reflects what consumers actually pay. Hopes that inflation is at least slowing spiked last week when the CPI showed a monthly gain of 0.4%, lower than the 0.6% estimate. The 7.7% annual gain was a deceleration from a 41-year peak of 9% in June. Markets also soared following Thursday’s CPI release. Federal Reserve officials have been raising interest rates in hopes of bringing down inflation. The central bank has hiked its benchmark borrowing rate six times year for a total of 3.75 percentage points, its highest level in 14 years. Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday she expects the pace of hikes soon will slow, through rates are likely to still go higher. She said the Fed can move to a more “deliberate” posture as it watches the impact of its rate hikes, which have included four straight 0.75 percentage point increases, are having on financial conditions. In other economic news Tuesday, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November registered a reading of 4.5%, an increase of 14 percentage points on a monthly basis and much better than the estimate for a -6% reading. The index measures the difference between companies reporting expansion vs. contraction. However, both the prices paid and received components saw increases, rising 1.9 points and 4.3 points respectively." MY COMMENT This data along with the Walmart data......shows a glimmer of hope that the economy is FINALLY resolving the issues that the economic shut-down imposed on us all. In hind-sight.....closing down the small business economy was totally STUPID. This report will trigger more of the speculation for the FED....only....doing a 0.50% increase in December. No doubt the FED.....will now send some HIT-MAN out to try to crush the good feeling in the markets that we are seeing with the strong open today.
At the moment we are seeing a strong open for the markets. The drop yesterday was TOTALLY news driven by the actions of the FED...speaking late in the day and tanking the markets. ALL the averages are UP nicely as we open today. The bad news for the FED.....people appear to be moving on and not caring much about inflation. There is enough money still sloshing around in the economy that people are not going to sit and wring their hands over the FED and their inflation fight. We have now seen as much CAPITULATION as we are going to see in the markets. No one invested now is going to be running for the exits. NOW.....the only question is how long we linger at the bottom.
Here is Home Depot (HD) earnings beat. Home Depot posts better-than-expected quarter despite inflation Home Depot reported Tuesday its third-quarter revenue increased nearly 6% to $38.9 billion, beating analyst expectations, as the retailer continued to beckon customers despite rising costs and macroeconomic pressures. Both its professional and do-it-yourself sales saw positive growth during the period, the retailer’s management said on a call with investors, adding professionals say their backlogs remain strong. The company posted a profit of $4.3 billion, or $4.24 per diluted share, up from $4.1 billion, or $3.92 billion, from the same quarter last year. Here’s what Home Depot reported on Tuesday, compared to analyst expectations, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv: Earnings per share: $4.24, vs. $4.12 expected Revenue: $38.87 billion, vs. $37.96 billion expected On Tuesday Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year guidance ahead of the key holiday quarter, noting it expects diluted earnings per share percentage growth in the mid-single digits. The company also expects comparable store sales to grow about 3% and an operating margin of approximately 15%. Investors have kept an eye on Home Depot’s performance and whether shoppers are still spending on renovations and do-it-yourself home improvements as they face persistent inflation. “We’re navigating a unique environment,” Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on Tuesday’s call with investors. “We can’t predict how the macroeconomic backdrop will affect customers going forward.” Despite this, he added the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, he said. Home Depot said Tuesday that while its customer transactions were down slightly more than 4%, its average ticket prices rose about 9% to $89.67. The company also said its sales per-retail-square-foot rose 5%. Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail noted the company is being faced with an “inflationary environment not seen in four decades,” in addition to managing supply chain issues and a global shift in monetary policy. Company executives said the higher ticket prices were driven by inflation, as well as increased demand for new products, adding there’s been some deceleration in inflation in recent months, particularly in lumber. Home Depot’s gross margin rate was down to 34%, meeting analyst expectations. The decrease was likely due to transportation costs, unfavorable product mix shift and commodity costs, according to a Raymond James analyst note.
I continue to say.......and it is my call.....that we are at a soft bottom in the markets and the economy. We are down in the mud at the bottom and at worst have perhaps another drop of 10% at some point. Even the possibility of a another 10% drop is getting slimmer and slimmer.....as time goes by. I think I called this soft bottom for the first time in a post a couple of months ago. Over the past 4-8 months I have seen my account approach the same low point four times. Each time the market turned back up from there. this gives me continued confidence that the market DROP is OVER. As I have said in the past.....this does not mean we go up like a rocket from here. iI is possible to linger at a bottom for a long time.......but.....THE WORST IS OVER.
Thank you Smokie for the good earnings post on my......HD stock. HERE is what I consider is the important content in that earnings report. "......revenue increased nearly 6% to $38.9 billion, Both its professional and do-it-yourself sales saw positive growth during the period, professionals say their backlogs remain strong. The company posted a profit of $4.3 billion, or $4.24 per diluted share, up from $4.1 billion, or $3.92 billion, from the same quarter last year. Earnings per share: $4.24, vs. $4.12 expected Revenue: $38.87 billion, vs. $37.96 billion expected On Tuesday Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year guidance the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, Home Depot said Tuesday that while its customer transactions were down slightly more than 4%, its average ticket prices rose about 9% to $89.67. Home Depot’s gross margin rate was down to 34%, meeting analyst expectations. The decrease was likely due to transportation costs, unfavorable product mix sshift and commodity costs," MY COMMENT This is a suburban based company. For the most part the stores cater to the suburban customer. These customers have money and are spending money. In addition they have wiped out the old time lumber yard construction supply model. Contractors are flocking to Home Depot for their day to day supplies. I see it every day at our local store. A great earnings report.....great management.......a well run company that is firing on all cylinders. This company is in a different business.......but reminds me of COSTCO.
Some good beats on earnings this morning by several companies. While looking at many of the companies, obviously the big ones jump out such as WMT and HD, but I seen this one and just couldn't resist looking....Krispy Kreme Doughnut...and yes they got in a beat as well. Krispy Kreme Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results
EVERYTHING is all lined up for a very good day in the markets today. BUT.....the short term is totally opaque.....so I would not be surprised by anything. Keep your eye on the......long term ball. Stocks surge after core inflation reading comes in cooler than expected https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-15-2022-131231318.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks surged early Tuesday after new inflation data provided fresh signs that prices may be cooling. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped by 1.5% in early morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced by 0.9%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by as much as 2.5%. October’s producer price index (PPI) declined to 8.0% annually, down from 8.5% in September, after economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasted 8.3%. Annual core PPI also surprised at 6.7% year over year, compared to a consensus estimate of 7.2%. The PPI report comes after other key inflation data came in lower than expected last Thursday, with consumer prices rising 0.4% in October and core prices adding 0.3%. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note moved higher to 3.8%, while the dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts including the yen and euro, slipped 0.7% to $105.96. Stocks finished lower Monday following last week’s rally as investors digested fresh commentary from Federal Reserve officials on the outlook of interest rates hikes. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday stated said she thought it would be "appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases.” Some strategists argue that Monday’s lows weren’t due to Brainard’s commentary, but more of a signal to what could be ahead. “The latest in a mounting wave of evidence that the FOMC will move 50 bps in December rather than the 75 bps pace they’ve been at since June,” strategists at Bespoke Investments wrote in a note to clients. Brainard's comments came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments that policymakers have “some ways to go” before the central bank stops raising rates. “Markets are having a tough time adjusting to where we think the terminal Fed funds rate is going and what that's going to mean for the economy and for earnings as we roll into next year,” U.S. Bank Wealth Management Senior Investment Strategist Rob Haworth told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. The sentiment on stocks and global growth among fund managers surveyed by Bank of America remained "uber-bearish" with a macro outlook of "92% predicting 'stagflation' in 2023," strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday. Also on investors' plate was U.S. President Joe Biden’s meeting with China President Xi Jinping, the first between the leaders of the world's two largest economies since Biden took office. "As leaders of our two nations, we share a responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict, and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation," Biden said at the opening of the meeting. Home Depot (HD) kicked off a major retailer earnings week by reporting sales that rose 5.6% in the third quarter, topping analyst expectations, as higher prices offset a slowdown in transactions. Walmart (WMT) also beat Wall Street expectations for the quarter and raised its outlook, as the retailer "significantly improved" its excess inventory. The discounter’s inventory was up 13% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from 25% in the previous quarter. Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and TJMaxx (TJX) are set to release earnings on Wednesday. Elsewhere, cryptocurrency prices generally stabilized following last week’s bankruptcy filing by FTX. Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $16,801 Tuesday morning, while Ether (ETH), the second most-popular cryptocurrency, trading up at $1,262.96." MY COMMENT There is one line in this article that I consider the MOST IMPORTANT content of the day. It is a SURE.....contrary....positive indicator for the markets. Here is is: "The sentiment on stocks and global growth among fund managers surveyed by Bank of America remained "uber-bearish" with a macro outlook of "92% predicting 'stagflation' in 2023," When the fund managers are this united in one opinion.....especially on the uber-bearish side.......I see the future as bright indeed. As time goes on we will....probably.....see that such an industry wide view is........ding, ding, ding.....WRONG. Retail investors have NOT capitulated.....but.....looks like the fund managers have.
UMMMMMM.........DOUGHNUTS. 15 Things Homer Simpson taught us about doughnuts 1. Doughnuts can make even the worst workday go faster 2. No matter how great life is, it’s not complete without doughnuts 3. The doughnut is greater than the soul 4. But that’s OK, it’s not eternal punishment if there are doughnuts 5. Doughnuts are the ultimate fashion statement 6. Organized crime deals in doughnuts 7. No doughnut should be sacrificed to the altar of science 8. You can’t eat just one 9. The bigger, the better 10. If you’re not careful, doughnuts lead to bad things 11. Lots of bad things 12. Really, really bad things 13. Don’t dance with doughnuts 14. Save them for a mid-dance snack 15. Doughnuts are much better with friends MY COMMENT SORRY.....Krispy Kreme.......but when I hear doughnuts....Homer Simpson is what I think of. We have a really good doughnut place near our house. the bad thing is they are sold out by noon......and when they are sold out.......they are sold out for the day.
