I use technical analysis for diagnostic, rather than prognostic, purposes. So we'll see what happens after that golden cross I think there'll still be a Santa rally this year. Wherever we set the December low before that, will be a very important low to hold. If that breaks in 1Q23, then we could be toast for years. But if the December low holds, then we'll have golden crosses galore.
No sign of Santa yet this year it seems like My guess is we will revisit the lows (3491 for the SPX) in Q1 next year, hard for the US economy to avoid a recession when the FED Funds rates went from zero to over 4% now
Have not really been following the daily market action much since about T-Day But, I agree. I think a retest of the bear lows looks to be next stop on this recent down leg post-FOMC. And I wholeheartedly agree with everything you said to a tee as well @stock1234. I think US recession pretty much a given at this point. Also, one of the things that made me feel a little iffy on that bounce off the CPI lows the other month was the fact that we never quite got the "capitulation" in this market. Of course everyone's definition of a capitulation is different. But my own personal one would be seeing more of a panic washout move. Where you have the majors pegged some -5% or greater across the boards in a single day, and where the VIX see's a nice spike over 30-40. The fact that the VIX has been kinda flat (and even red) during much of this down leg tells me that there just isn't any panic out there. I mean we are after all in the holiday stretch now with Xmas and New Years on deck. Doesn't surprise me that volumes have been on the lighter side during this selloff. I think I would feel a bit better about a more sustained and lasting rally that doesn't just fizzle after a while once we get that washout capitulation in this market. My absolute ultimate target on this bear market would be down around the COVID low, which I know is a bit of a stretch from here. But, that would essentially equal the % decline from the ATH around the same as of the GFC bear market which was a little over -50% from the peak. We'll see what happens. Funnily enough as bad as the past few weeks have gone for the market, we could still "technically" see a SCR (Santa Claus Rally), which as many of you may know is the 7-day stretch from the final 5 trading days of the current year, and the first 2 trading day of the new year. This year SCR begins on this Friday, Dec. 23rd and would end on Wednesday Jan. 4th. Wouldn't surprise me if there is an SCR. Though it could very well be kind of a half hearted Santa Rally. Hope everyone has been doing great btw! It has been a while. I've been MIA for a while and don't really plan to get back in the saddle and monitor things closely again until January.
Unless you're buying... I am. Cautiously. Holding reserve of course, so that if it continues to drop - buy more!
Yeah I would definitely be more willing to buy a day like today than yesterday. I am still not buying aggressively until we hit the new lows of this bear market if it will be coming at all, just buying here and there passively whenever we have a pretty red day.
I'm around $40 loss from my all time high for my account. 2022 has been an interesting year. Learned alot about how to handle a market that has been dropping and dropping
MERRY CHRISTMAS, everybody! May our Highs next year be High, our Lows few and far between, and let's remember the really important things, like good health, peace, goodwill, family and friendship.
good shit Frank. I’ll have to say it has been a real honor for me personally to have witnessed your growth as a trader since your very first days at the old HSM community. Keep up the good work. You da man.
Think we're putting in a very important bottom now. Today marks 5 days since a 4-day losing streak in SPX/NDQ.
haven't really been following the day-to-day action for a while now. how're volumes looking out there post-holiday. i suspect it's still on the lighter side. i'm looking forward to seeing how things pan out to start the new year. will get a better idea about if any meaningful bottoms look to being put in. i'm a bit skeptical myself and still think this market needs one good retest of the pre-pandemic peak at the very least. really wanna see that washout move in this market that has been the one big missing ingredient to bottom off this bear. i don't think we've seen that yet. thus, i don't feel too confident on any lasting bottoms being put it yet.
