They are also selling off loaners and demo cars. I read an article that framed the sell off as a sign they are overwhelmed with demand but that is one of the dumber things I've read in a long time. It seems far more likely the model 3 refresh is just around the corner in early 2023. That would explain the sales fleet sell down. They are clearly trying to goose the year end numbers. They would do this in any circumstance, as they have done every year. If the numbers are record braking, they will try to achieve a few more. If the numbers are low, they will try to support them any way possible. I believe the deep discount is designed to boost sales. There is no other explanation. To that end, the narrative that demand is off is now looking credible. Shanghai has been idled for the remainder of the year. This makes sense, as China is being decimated with COVID. I can't imagine anyone wants to buy a car, take delivery of a car, or build a car while they are under existential threat. We know that omicron isn't nearly as lethal as the early COVID waves but they don't know that. China has been in isolated for two years. This is new to them and they are absolutely terrified. The COVID R value in China is said to be roughly 18. That means, each infection spreads to 18 other people. The thought was this COVID wave would last until April 2023 but that date is being moved way up, due to the wild spread function. I think they initially estimated R~=3. We live in wild times.
Lots of factors to consider. Interest rates are one of the primary concerns, the BDI has dropped and a lot of the big ticket companies are forced to make cuts across the board. Contrary to popular belief the World has slowed down consumption. 2022 was a year of the reckoning and the longtermers have took a royal beating. Tesla Share price has dropped in comparison with other big companies. Earnings are announced later this month, it will be interesting to see how they unfold. Lots of whispers on share buybacks so time will tell.
IDK TomB16, I think the Chinese Consumer and Population have a lot of pent up demand and a lot of money to spend. We just hear what their media wants us to. -IndependentCandy14
This is headed to double digits faster than I expected lol So lets have some estimates here on the low end on what the worst case can be for price levels in the short term. Lets take a look at the 5 biggest car makers under Tesla: Keeping in mind that Tesla is more than just a car maker and deserves a premium for its technology, where would you say a fair market cap is for Tesla and why?
Who could have imagined Tesla and BYD would be in the top 3 automakers, by market cap, at the end of 2022? Even though I predicted this (not specifically but broadly) and I find myself taken back by this list. The stock will bottom at a level the market decides. The market is not my game. I have proven many times I cannot predict the market, so I shall not participate in this thought experiment.
OK, so I've been thinking if there is a price at which I would buy back in. Maybe. I'm considering it at the current price. When the market cap gets a bit closer to $300B, I might find myself owning Tesla again. If I buy back in, I will not flip this stock. I will own this company for many years. The SuperCharger network and car company combined are worth about $300B. They have many other irons in the fire which could prove to multiply that valuation. The decision comes down to figuring out if I want to be in business with them. I could care less what myself, or anyone, thinks the stock will do tomorrow.
wowza. this is getting pretty over cooked on the downside here in a hurry. that said, this could see a nice counter trend snap-back bounce at any time. nothing moves in straight lines forever. the past few sessions seems a bit overdone. we shall see. can't image this getting much into double digit prints, w/o at least some some bounce attempts. unless one doesn't think this has capitulated enough yet. pretty spectacular move on the downside here though. the bears really mauled this one pretty good this year.
Seeing that Toyota is close to $200B, I would say that is fair that Tesla have a 50% premium on that. That gives us another -20% to go, but also considering that retail investors will overreact on both the upside and downside, we can overshoot on the downside too before correcting.
106s in AH. Tesla is suffering from collateral damage from tweetergate along with several other factors. Who knows where it will bottom. Everything I've been looking at is downtrending, to me that's simply a sign of the times.
No Santa Sleigh Ride in Sight. He’s already back to the North Pole. Hibernating and Preparing for 2023. -IndependentCandy14
Just Realized I posted this Here. It was Meant for the Daily Thread. Last I Saw, Tesla was in the Green today for a Change. This is what happens when I only have my Phone. Errors. LoL. -IndependentCandy14
Tesla claims to have achieved a run rate of 4680 batteries that will translate into 50K cars per year. That comes to roughly 2.5% With solid state around the corner, in house cell development does not appear to have been much of a gain, to this point.
Looks like some dip buyers trying to catch some in the $120 range, lets see how this holds up into the new year.
Some positive news: The Tesla Model Y was Europe's best-selling passenger car overall in November, overtaking the Volkswagen Golf.
I think Tesla is going to surprise a lot of people. My 30 day no touch is taking forever, but I'll probably look at leaps this round.
Is everyone ready for the numbers? I believe the ones that played the downside are going to be disappointed.
