I will mention......I am going to be off on a little road trip for the next 5 days......Thursday through Monday. SO......I will probably not be posting during that time. So....everyone on here will be on their own. You guys keep the rally going while I am out of touch. I dont want to come back and find out you all had a giant party on the thread and trashed it. BEER cans all over the place, Emmett missing a tooth, Zukodany with a facial tattoo, Smokie passed out in the bathtub, a bunch of chickens walking around all over the thread, etc, etc, etc.
We shall leave it the way we found it..... Can we get a definite time of return??? I don't want to overpay for the carpet cleaner rental.
Makes me real suspicious when someone wants to know a definite time of return. BUT....it will be Tuesday morning in time for the open. Markets closed for MLK day on Monday. That is EXACTLY what I am afraid of....at the minimum.....Emmett.....I know you guys.
By the way Zukodany....I watched that Madoff show on Netflix. A total indictment of the incompetence of our government agencies. I found it very interesting seeing all the events that I have lived and invested through since the 1960's. Makes me wonder how in the world we even did what we did. People today dont have a clue what the markets, and brokerage process, were like for investors pre-internet. There were very few people in the USA that owned a stock or mutual fund back than.......and the process of buying and selling was extremely different than today. The only real way to get any daily market or other info was to subscribe to the Wall Street Journal or the Investors Business Daily.....or.....to go somewhere where they had a ticker.
So, I sometimes harp about "expert predictions" and all of the noise and media suggesting what one should do to change course. All of the encouragement to "do something" should be avoided in most all cases. Here is an example from an article about the outlook for 2022.... Wall Street’s analyst community is broadly optimistic about the market’s prospects for the year ahead. “We expect solid economic and earnings growth in 2022 to help U.S. stocks deliver additional gains next year,” says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, the largest independent broker-dealer in the U.S. “If we are approaching – or are already in – the middle of an economic cycle with at least a few more years left (our view), then we believe the chances of another good year for stocks in 2022 are quite high.” Also noteworthy is LPL’s S&P 500 target for 2022, which stands at 5,050 at the midpoint. That represents a roughly 10% gain from when the call was made Dec. 20, but closer to 5% from today’s prices. Plenty of other Wall Street strategists have similar targets. Thus, if you want anything more than a mid-single-digit return in 2022, you might need to stray from the index and instead delve into individual picks. As we know, 2022 did not turn out that way. That last line about "if you want anything better than a mid-single digit return...." They make it sound so easy and nonchalant, flippant type of all knowing way. Did it cost them anything to be wrong? No, but it can cost you to fall for such drivel.
No worries. I will just skip the rental steam vacuum to avoid holiday charges. I figure zukodany or TomB16, maybe Emmett has connections for some racy...uh professional maids service.
For sure. Not only that, they can be wrong 100 times in a row and they will be introduced on CNBC as an expert in their field and an authority on the market. I find it keenly interesting that people follow these talking heads, even if their lifetime prediction average is well under 50%. People want to follow someone, even if the person they follow feeds them bad information most of the time.
Speaking of expert predictions... Bull Market Is Back as Recession Worries Fade, Yardeni Says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-back-recession-worries-163317409.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Closely followed strategist Edward Yardeni, who saw resilience in the US economy even as recession worries grew last year, remains sanguine on where global financial assets — including US stocks — are headed. “The outlook for the world economy is actually improving,” the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc. told Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance on Wednesday. US equities “made a low on Oct. 12. That was the end of the bear market and we ‘re back in a bull market.” Since closing at 3,577.03 that day, the S&P 500 has risen almost 10%. Of course, there will be “a lot of volatility” as markets worldwide endure central bank tightening and investors sort through the effects of higher rates on growth, he said. But “the plunge in natural gas prices in Europe suggests Europe may not have a recession. China should open” after abandoning its restrictive Covid policies, strengthening its economy. Market benchmarks from the Nasdaq 100 to the FTSE 100 have gained so far in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong advancing more than 6%. “Investors right now are turning more optimistic about the global economy and looking where values are still cheap,” he said. “We have already had a big run in China and now they’re looking at Europe. A diversified portfolio makes sense.” In the US, industrials stock should do well “because there is so much money in the fiscal stimulus pipeline.” A transformation may be under way to the “Old Normal” economy that is able to grow with interest rates at a reasonable level, instead of the “New Normal of unconventional monetary policies,” he said. Yardeni, who coined the “bond vigilante” concept in the 1980s, added, “It would be great if we could get back to an environment where interest rates are not zero.”" MY COMMENT YES....it would be great to get back to....normal....interest rates above "0". I mentioned that we appear to be in a bull market the other day....but lets not get too crazy yet.
In regard to some of the "bull market" articles mentioned. I kind of look at that the same as I would some of the negative pieces. I don't put much, if any weight to their predictions. Good or bad. I try to keep an even keel on the investing ship so to speak. I do think some of the international issues are changing to a degree as mentioned in the article. Europe still has some issues, but with the help of the US and other countries, the NG worst case scenario has been avoided so far. It also appears China may have realized their "zero covid" policy was simply not attainable, nor sustainable for their economy. Of course either of those could change tomorrow, but there are some positive things to glean from that if it holds. As to here (US), inflation is hard to displace and it takes time. I think we need some more clarity, a bit more certainty about what is going to work and is it working. Or maybe policymakers/FED screw it all up. If we can ever just ease back into "normal" and let the free markets and the economy work without a bunch of experiments being tried out again....we have a chance. And yes, having interest rates are normal. All of that is just my opinion. I will continue to move forward with my plan and stay on course either way.
All of that said, It is okay to celebrate a GOOD day in the markets. It seems a bit since we have had more than one good day in a row. Last year was long, so maybe it just seems that way. Today was nice.
Interesting MSFT article below. Unlimited time off....I don't know about this. It could be a double-edged sword for both the employer and employee in some ways. Microsoft Says It Will Give US Workers Unlimited Time Off (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. said it is shifting vacation policy to give US workers unlimited time off, matching a system already in place at its LinkedIn unit. The changes start Jan. 16 and apply only to full-time employees in the US, according to a company spokesperson. The company has been considering the change for a few years in order to adapt to more flexible working schedules. This kind of policy, in place at companies like Netflix Inc. and for senior bankers at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., can prove challenging when managers set expectations that favor little or no time off. The spokesperson said that Microsoft has considered the possible flaws in such a system and that the company expects it can ensure workers get adequate vacation time. Unlimited time can also be a boon for employers because the plan requires less work to administer and because employees who quit or are fired don’t have to be compensated for accrued, unused time. Microsoft will make a one-time payout in April to workers with accrued time.
Unlimited time off....seems like a pretty good tool to me to help identify workers that are slackers or dont have much work ethic.
I had a nice big, fat, gain today. ALL....ten stocks up. Plus I got a good beat on the SP500 by 0.93% today. That is four days in a row. I am now back to where I once again have a cushion for the inevitable drops.
I am not really into....expert predictions. BUT.....the SP500 does not lie......it is positive for the past SIX MONTHS. That is the criteria that I use for evaluating short term market direction and whether we are in a bear or bull market. My view is that the bear market bottomed in June and is now starting to dissipate. EARNINGS....over the next 2-3 months will be the key single factor going forward...as to where we are right now. Of course those earnings are for the last quarter....last year. So not exactly forward looking data. I am STILL expecting all the experts to be WRONG about earnings as usual.
Tomorrow the fate of the market will be in the hands of the CPI data. The day in a nutshell. Stocks rise with all eyes on CPI report https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-11-2023-120716136.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks ascended Wednesday as Wall Street counted down to the release of key consumer price data that is projected to show inflation further easing. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added more than 250 points, or 0.8%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 1.8%. U.S. Treasury yields pared their move higher from the previous session, with the benchmark 10-year note falling below 3.6%. The U.S. dollar index also retreated. Wells Fargo (WFC) was among companies in focus in early trading after the megabank said late Tuesday it would scale back its home lending business. The move by Wells Fargo, once a leading mortgage lender, comes amid a slowdown in the housing market as sky-high interest rates put a damper on property purchases and refinancing agreements. The stock price was little changed. Elsewhere, shares of two retailers on the brink of extinction continued to see intense trading. Shares of Party City (PRTY) plunged 37% after surging around that much earlier in the day and spiking 118% in Tuesday's session. Bloomberg News reported the company has sought funding for a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy, citing people with knowledge of the preparations. Embattled retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) again ripped higher one week after announcing the company was considering bankruptcy due to its financial struggles. The meme stock jumped 68% after rising more than 50% across the prior two sessions. Coinbase (COIN) shares clawed back to close up 1.3% after a drop earlier in the day that followed a downgrade by Bank of America to Underperform from Neutral after the company said Tuesday it would slash nearly 1,000 jobs as part of a restructuring plan.' MY COMMENT As to Wells Fargo.....I went to the bank today and the teller said they are preparing to close a good number of branches here locally. If they are closing them here where everything is booming......I imagine they are possibly going to close branches in many other areas. This bank has been a total disaster for over 10 years now. I dont ever buy banks or insurance companies or other financial companies.....but this one in particular is a very disturbed company with all the ways they have screwed their customers in the past 10-15 years.
OK guys.....I am out of here. LET THE PARTY BEGIN. I will be back on Tuesday. I will expect to see some really good results in the markets for Thursday and Friday (I am sticking you guys with the potentially difficult days this week) HERE is one last SAD STORY........another ICON is gone. Jeff Beck, guitar god who influenced generations, dies at 78 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/jeff-beck-guitar-god-who-influenced-generations-dies-at-78.html "Key Points Jeff Beck, a guitar virtuoso who pushed the boundaries of blues, jazz and rock ‘n’ roll, influencing generations of shredders along the way and becoming known as the guitar player’s guitar player, has died. He was 78. Beck died Tuesday after “suddenly contracting bacterial meningitis,” his representatives said in a statement released Wednesday. Jeff Beck performing at the Concord Pavilion in Concord, California on August 1, 2003. He plays a Fender Stratocaster guitar. Clayton Call | Redferns | Getty Images Jeff Beck, a guitar virtuoso who pushed the boundaries of blues, jazz and rock ‘n’ roll, influencing generations of shredders along the way and becoming known as the guitar player’s guitar player, has died. He was 78. Beck died Tuesday after “suddenly contracting bacterial meningitis,” his representatives said in a statement released Wednesday. Beck first came to prominence as a member of the Yardbirds and then went out on his own in a solo career that incorporated hard rock, jazz, funky blues and even opera. He was known for his improvising, love of harmonics and the whammy bar on his preferred guitar, the Fender Stratocaster. “Jeff Beck is the best guitar player on the planet,″ Joe Perry, the lead guitarist of Aerosmith, told The New York Times in 2010. ″He is head, hands and feet above all the rest of us, with the kind of talent that appears only once every generation or two.” Beck was among the rock-guitarist pantheon from the late ’60s that included Eric Clapton, Jimmy Page and Jimi Hendrix. Beck won eight Grammy Awards and was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame twice — once with the Yardbirds in 1992 and again as a solo artist in 2009. He was ranked fifth in Rolling Stone magazine’s list of the “100 Greatest Guitarists of All Time.” Beck played guitar with vocalists as varied as Luciano Pavarotti, Macy Gray, Chrissie Hynde, Joss Stone, Imelda May, Cyndi Lauper, Wynonna Judd and Buddy Guy. He made two records with Rod Stewart — 1968′s “Truth” and 1969′s “Beck-Ola” — and one with a 64-piece orchestra, “Emotion & Commotion.” “I like an element of chaos in music. That feeling is the best thing ever, as long as you don’t have too much of it. It’s got to be in balance. I just saw Cirque du Soleil, and it struck me as complete organized chaos,” he told Guitar World in 2014. “If I could turn that into music, it’s not far away from what my ultimate goal would be, which is to delight people with chaos and beauty at the same time.” Beck career highlights include joining with bassist Tim Bogert and drummer Carmine Appice to create the power trio that released “Beck, Bogert and Appice” in 1973, tours with Brian Wilson and Buddy Guy and a tribute album to the late guitarist Les Paul, “Rock ‘n’ Roll Party (Honoring Les Paul).” Geoffrey Arnold Beck was born in Surrey, England, and attended Wimbledon Art College. His father was an accountant, and his mother worked in a chocolate factory. As a boy, he built his first instrument, using a cigar box, a picture frame for the neck and string from a radio-controlled toy airplane. He was in a few bands — including Nightshift and The Tridents — before joining the Yardbirds in 1965, replacing Clapton but only a year later giving way to Page. During his tenure, the band created the memorable singles “Heart Full of Soul,” “I’m a Man” and “Shapes of Things.” Beck’s first hit single was 1967′s instrumental “Beck’s Bolero,” which featured future Led Zeppelin members Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones, and future Who drummer Keith Moon. The Jeff Beck Group — with Stewart singing — was later booked to play the 1969 Woodstock music festival but their appearance was cancelled. Beck later said there was unrest in the band. “I could see the end of the tunnel,” he told Rolling Stone in 2010. Beck was friends with Hendrix and they performed together. Before Hendrix, most rock guitar players concentrated on a similar style and technical vocabulary. Hendrix blew that apart. “He came along and reset all of the rules in one evening,” Beck told Guitar World. Beck teamed up with legendary producer George Martin — a.k.a. “the fifth Beatle” — to help him fashion the genre-melding, jazz-fusion classic “Blow by Blow” (1975) and “Wired” (1976). He teamed up with Seal on the Hendrix tribute “Stone Free,” created a jazz-fusion group led by synthesizer player Jan Hammer and honored rockabilly guitarist Cliff Gallup with the album “Crazy Legs.” He put out “Loud Hailer” in 2016. Beck’s guitar work can be heard on the soundtracks of such films as “Stomp the Yard,” “Shallow Hal,” “Casino,” “Honeymoon in Vegas,” “Twins,” “Observe and Report” and “Little Big League.” Beck’s career never hit the commercial highs of Clapton. A perfectionist, he preferred to make critically well-received instrumental records and left the limelight for long stretches, enjoying his time restoring vintage automobiles. He and Clapton had a tense relationship early on but became friends in later life and toured together. Why did the two wait some four decades to tour together? “Because we were all trying to be big bananas,” Beck told Rolling Stone in 2010. “Except I didn’t have the luxury of the hit songs Eric’s got.” Beck is survived by his wife, Sandra." MY COMMENT RIP
That was so unreal to watch. He was a Wall Street phenomenon for decades - up until - they found out he was a crook. And the reason why he was “the real deal” for over a quarter century mind you, was because the SEC CONSTANTLY rebuffed ANY accusations of wrong doing. Even when he eventually laid all his cards on the table and gave the fake sources of his accounts, they STILL gave him a pass.
The SEC is a criminal organization. They may do some good but they held the door open for front runners to roll in and arbitrage trading queues. For this, and several other reasons, they get zero respect from me.
