The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.

    I just looked at my account....all stocks in the red except for TSLA. The good news for me....the loss today for me is mild....about what I gained yesterday.

    Poor AMAZON......I like the company....but I am starting to really NOT LIKE the current management. They are opaque and I have the bad feeling that they are overwhelmed and unable to run the company. They are reactionary and not visionary. Although...being visionary in business is not always a good thing.....you have to be visionary and RIGHT at the same time.

    I was very good at....mentally.... projecting out 1-3 years in the future when I was in business. This is the key to success. Most business people that I saw FAIL....had no ability to see out into the future and plan accordingly.

    As of right now AMAZON stock:

    6 months (-31%)
    YTD +16.73%
    1 year (-37%)
    3 years (-7%)
    5 years +33%

    That three year number is bad and even the five year number is pretty pitiful. BUT....I have no plans to sell the stock even though I am gong to continue to think of it as a 2 year....."watch".

    I am hoping that someone will make a decisive decision about the future of the company management some time over the next 2 or more years driven by management failure....or....the current management will pull it together and start to show some competence. I am not holding my breath.

    I hate to see a good company......with bad management. I saw the same thing with Microsoft in the late 1990's and early 2000's. It forced me to sell the stock and avoid the stock until the current management came in and was proven competent.

    I have no emotional attachment to any stock or company. I WILL sell when i reach the end of my rope waiting for a company to prove that they can still produce. BUT....as I said....I am not there with Amazon and dont expect to make any move with the stock for at least 1-2 years. There is still too much overlay on the company from the pandemic.....but that excuse will wear thin over the next 2-3 years.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OH NO.....THE DAY APPEARS TO BE LOST......the markets are still down....WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO?

    Well simply move on to the next day.....and the next, and the next, and the next, etc, etc, etc......till they add up to years.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    No claw back today from the red. We still are more than holding the line so far this year. It wasn't that long ago where we just had extended weeks like today. I like where we are so far anyway. Just keep moving forward...our journey continues down the path of long term investing.

    I'll post up a few closing earnings in a bit.
     
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  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The Applied Materials one year gain in diluted EPS is less than I was expecting. Still good, though.

    It will be interesting to see how far down it goes in 23H2.

    AM is a good company I have owned in the past. I recall whybibsold it. Selling was a good move but I do wish I still owned it.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was in the red today. AND...I got beat by the SP500 by 0.57%.

    My one highlight of the day......a single green stock....Home Depot. One is better than none.

    We live to move on to another day and the end of the week tomorrow.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will miss the second half of the day tomorrow. I leave for a Friday evening show at 11:00AM. Emmett? Anyone else? Get these markets back up by the close tomorrow.

    We are siting on a gain of.....0.01%.....for the SP500 for the past four days. Tomorrow will be the deciding day for the week. Green, or, Red?
     
    #14349 WXYZ, Feb 16, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2023
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  9. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    they'll be up. bounce off that afternoon drop today. you'd think people never heard of a recall (tesla) before. sheesh.
     
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  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It's a recall that will be fixed with an over the air update. Lol!
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I guess we have lots of company.

    Retail investors are pouring a record $1.5 billion per day into the stock market
    Tesla remained the favorite among this group, with retail inflows to the stock totaling $9.7 billion year-to-date in 2023 so far.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investors-record-inflows-us-stock-market-193801422.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Individual investors have been snapping up stocks at the fastest pace on record as U.S. equity markets have charged higher to start the year.

    Over the past month, retail investors funneled an average of $1.51 billion each day into U.S. stocks, the highest amount ever recorded, according to data from research firm VandaTrack published Thursday.

    "With recent surveys showing the institutional investor community remaining broadly bearish on stocks, it would be unwise to underestimate the importance of the retail cohort," strategists at VandaTrack said in a note. "That's in keeping with retail sales and jobs data for January, suggesting that consumers retain impressive levels of buying power."

    [​IMG]
    In the last month, retail investors poured an average of $1.51 billion per day into U.S. equities, the highest amount ever recorded. (Source: VandaTrack)
    Tesla (TSLA) remained the favorite among this group, with retail inflows to the stock totaling $9.7 billion year to date.

    Those allocations come during a comeback rally for the electric vehicle giant after closing out its worst year on record in 2022. Tesla shares have gained 74% in 2023 through Wednesday's close.

    The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), an ETF which tracks the benchmark S&P 500, has been the second-most popular purchase by retail investors this year, with retail flows totaling $3.6 billion in 2023. The index is up 8.2% year to date through Wednesday.

    Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA) rounded out the top five, receiving $1.8 billion, $1.7 billion, and $1.4 billion in inflows this year, respectively. These names were up 20%, 19.5%, and 55.8% this year in that order.

    More speculative, beaten-down names have also been popular buys, with investors again circling baskets of stocks favored by ARK Invest's Cathie Wood.

    Wood's flagship ARK Innovation (ARKK) ETF, a bellwether for high-flying technology stocks, has seen a modest uptick in inflows this year, but stood 27th on a list of the biggest purchases from retail investors ponying up $169 million for the fund.

    Retail investors did, however, snag key underlying names from ARK's family of exchange-traded funds — Coinbase (COIN), Block (SQ), Roku (ROKU), for example — faster than the firm itself, a phenomenon seen early into the COVID pandemic.

    "It was common back in 2020-2021 for retail investors to buy ARK ETFs while at the same time piling in some of their more hyped underlyings," the team at VandaTrack said. "While we don't expect retail speculation to reach those levels, it is noteworthy that retail investors are vastly outpacing Cathie Wood and Co. regarding purchases across some of these names."

    ARK Innovation was up 38.3% to date through Wednesday.

    "Soaring retail investor flows underpin the outperformance of their favorite stocks," VandaTrack researchers said, adding retail flows have accounted for an $18.5 billion capital injection in these names in 2023.

    "Should positive momentum in the broad equity market persist, it could push retail investors toward more speculative names, which are more susceptible to such flows given their smaller market cap."

    MY COMMENT

    I guess my stealth bull market is not so stealth anymore. Nice to have lots of company. This is the real market....the silent majority.
     
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  12. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I was laughing about that Tesla recall headline myself… it’s basically Tesla telling k360+ vehicle owners to download a fix. That’s actually good news which should promote the company’s product efficiency
     
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  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Back on US soil but… sick as a dog.. we had a great trip overseas but it ended by me getting some unpleasant flu. Went to the dr yesterday he said great news you don’t have covid after testing me. I was looking at him asking him how is this good news? I’m still sick as a dog here!!
    Anyways, the boss will probably hate me for writing this here but I bought some Amazon at 100… admittedly, this will be a temporary buy. If it goes down 10% I’m selling. don’t know, I’ve been watching it hover between 97-102 for two weeks now so I’m pretty confident it will stick and I think it’s a great price considering the magnitude and impact of the business on our society.
    we’ll see…
     
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  14. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Oh no! Are we going to be in lock down in a few months because of something called "Zuko23"??:suspicious: Just kidding...sorry you are under the weather. I think with AMZN its just been a management thing, as others have pointed out. I think when they blew some big money on the vehicle deal and some other ventures it hurt them. If they were to get back focused on what made them AMZN it would certainly help. Sometimes new management comes in and drifts from what works and can lose focus. Get well soon zuko.
     
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  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Smokie!!
    Yes, they’ll have the whole Fauci squad banging at my door in no time, ET style!
    Yup, I’m not with what’s happening at Amazon lately either, but I recognize them as a retailer giant and also recognize a great price point. Just a matter of time before Wall Street finds something to like about them, or other silly headline to focus on. It’s been like that with Meta, Netflix etc etc
    Just resting here, watching squawk and drinking tea with lemon all day
     
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  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    SEC rule change for those interested....

    SEC Finalizes Rules to Reduce Risks in Clearance and Settlement

    Washington D.C., Feb. 15, 2023 —

    The Securities and Exchange Commission today adopted rule changes to shorten the standard settlement cycle for most broker-dealer transactions in securities from two business days after the trade date (T+2) to one (T+1). The final rule is designed to benefit investors and reduce the credit, market, and liquidity risks in securities transactions faced by market participants.

    “I support this rulemaking because it will reduce latency, lower risk, and promote efficiency as well as greater liquidity in the markets,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler. “Today’s adoption addresses one of the four areas the staff recommended the Commission address in response to the meme stock events of 2021. Taken together, these amendments will make our market plumbing more resilient, timely, orderly, and efficient.”

    In addition to shortening the standard settlement cycle, the final rules will improve the processing of institutional trades. Specifically, the final rules will require a broker-dealer to either enter into written agreements or establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure the completion of allocations, confirmations, and affirmations as soon as technologically practicable and no later than the end of trade date. The final rules also require registered investment advisers to make and keep records of the allocations, confirmations, and affirmations for certain securities transactions.

    Further, the final rules add a new requirement to facilitate straight-through processing, which applies to certain types of clearing agencies that provide central matching services. The final rules will require central matching service providers to establish, implement, maintain, and enforce new policies and procedures reasonably designed to facilitate straight-through processing and require them to submit an annual report to the Commission that describes and quantifies progress with respect to straight-through processing. (SEC.gov).
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do like the above......"if"..... it will reduce the time it takes for a trade to clear. In the modern world it is crazy that it takes three days.

    The devil will be in all the details and if government involvement to "help the little people".....has the typical negative impacts.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I hope this is the start to a trend.

    Apple wants to move its manufacturing out of China
    The company's key supplier announced major factory investments in Vietnam in a move to diversify its supply chain

    https://qz.com/apple-vietnam-china-foxconn-1850119649

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Apple supplier Foxconnannounced the creation of a major new factory in Vietnam and a $300 million investment to expand its current operations in the country. The decision comes as Apple attempts to move parts of its manufacturing process out of China.

    The new factory will sit on 111 acres just outside of Saigon, with Foxconn signing a 35-year lease worth approximately $62.5 million, according to a the South China Morning Post. The new factory will possibly make Macbooks, a first for the country thatalready produces AirPods, Apple Watches, and iPads.

    Apple told suppliers late last year to plan for a shift in manufacturing out of China and into emerging markets such as India and Vietnam, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company cited supply chain tie-ups, riots at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory, and China’s extreme covid-19 restrictions as reasons for the move.

    Earlier this month, Apple announced it had missed earnings expectations in the last fiscal quarter, posting the largest quarterly revenue decline in over five years and the first year-over-year sales decline since 2019. CEO Tim Cook blamed the general macroeconomic environment, as well as specific production issues in China affecting the production of the iPhone 14."

    MY COMMENT

    I will be happier when Apple and the rest of the tech world moves out of China.....and.....cites the theft of technology and manufacturing processes by the Chinese government. It also might be nice to see these companies cite the fact that China is the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship and enemy of the.....in theory....home country of Apple.
     
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