The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I noticed some of the companies totally slapped the estimates to the back of the room this morning. The media and experts didn't have much to say about it other than BUT, BUT, BUT....the outlook is still dismal and on and on. Very little coverage given to it. As expected though, they simply can't help it.
     
  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    And the FED talk....I mean can they literally beat something into the ground any further. There is NOTHING new here to speak of...you can only slice this story so many ways. It is no longer news at this point to a certain degree.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    My stock holdings did nicely today.....a good green day for me. I had eight of ten stocks UP today. My losers for the day....TSLA and AMZN. I also beat the SP500 by 0.26%.

    A very strong day for the markets considering the drag of the Ten Year Treasury yield well over 4%.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE are my COSTCO earnings.

    Costco: Fiscal Q2 Earnings Snapshot

    https://www.chron.com/business/article/costco-fiscal-q2-earnings-snapshot-17816590.php


    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    I"SSAQUAH, Wash. (AP) — ISSAQUAH, Wash. (AP) — Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) on Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.47 billion.

    The Issaquah, Washington-based company said it had net income of $3.30 per share.


    The results exceeded Wall Street expectations.
    The average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $3.20 per share."

    MY COMMENT

    Waiting for more info. Of course the majority of the media will find something to gripe about and claim that it was not a beat.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is what I mean.

    Costco Q2 earnings: Stock slips after mixed results

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-q2-earnings-stock-slips-after-mixed-results-213931097.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Costco (COST) posted fiscal second-quarter earnings results Thursday, March 2, after market close that mostly beat expectations. Shares were down more than 2% after the release.

    Total revenue for the wholesale retailer came in slightly lower than expected, $55.27 billion, but up 6.5% from a year ago. Meanwhile net sales also saw a 6.5% increase, to $54.24 billion, up from $50.04 billion.

    Here's what Costco reported, compared to Wall Street estimates, based on Bloomberg consensus data:

    • Revenue: $55.27 billion versus $55.58 billion expected
    • Adjusted earnings per share: $3.30 versus $3.21 expected
    • Same-store sales: up 6.8% versus up6.16% expected
      • United States: up 5.8% versus up 5.56% expected
      • Canada: up 9.6% versus up 5.51% expected
      • Other international: 9.5% versus up 7.10% expected

    Giving an outlook into the first few weeks of Q3 FY 23, in the first four weeks of February, U.S. sales are up 3.4%, while only up 1.2% in Canada. For its international business, sales are up 6.5%.

    In February, the company saw net sales of $17.06 billion, up 4.7% from $16.29 billion last year.

    Membership fee increase?

    There was no mention of a membership increase in the preliminary results, but membership fees brought in $1.03 billion, up 6.2% from a year ago and a tick higher than Wall Street estimates of $1.04 billion.

    Typically, Costco hikes its membership every 5 years and seven months, bringing the next potential hike to ... now. Costco last raised prices in June 2017, which was announced that prior March.

    Stifel, which holds a Buy rating on the stock, expects "greater clarity over the next approximately six months," however, that may be delayed due to the current macro environment. "It is possible a weaker consumer environment and strong comparable store sales and renewal rates could delay an increase relative to historical timing."

    A Costco Gold Star membership costs $60 per year and an Executive Membership goes for $120.

    That's compared to Sam’s Club, owned by Walmart (WMT), which raised prices in August for the first time since 1999. That move increased annual fees to $50 from $45 for Club members and to $110 from $100 for Plus members.

    At BJ's, the basic membership costs $55 per a year and its perk rewards membership is $110.


    Shares of Costco are up more than 70% from 2020. Year-to-date shares are up 6.3%. As of Wednesday, the Street has 25 Buys, 13 Holds, and 10 Sells."

    MY COMMENT

    TYPICAL........OMG earnings were "mixed". No actually they were a pretty good BEAT. EVERY category was above estimates except for a very slight miss on Revenue.....but.....revenue was UP by 6.5%.

    I will take this result any day of the week. PLUS....they are about due for another membership fee increase......that is a very BIG driver of earnings for this company.....which produces over $1BILLION in membership fees before they sell a single item.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    One take on the markets today.

    Stocks close higher, Dow gains 300 points as Fed’s Bostic spurs relief rally: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks rose Thursday in an afternoon rally as traders tried to shake off concerns over higher interest rates.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 341.73 points, or 1.05%, to close at 33,003.57. Salesforce boosted the Dow, rallying 11% on a strong quarter and forward guidance.


    The S&P 500 gained 0.76% to close at 3,981.35. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.73%, ending the session at 11,462.98.

    The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were under pressure earlier in the day. However, the market turned around in the afternoon after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he’s “firmly” in favor of sticking with quarter-point hikes.

    Rates pressed higher, with the benchmark 10-year note yield topping 4%. The 2-year note yield reached levels not seen in more than a decade.

    A surge in labor costs and a pullback in jobless claims reported early Thursday point to the likelihood that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate another 0.25 percentage point later this month.

    Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite falling Wednesday, while the Dow posted a small gain. All of the major averages are on track for a winning week, with the Dow set to snap a four-week losing streak.

    The rise in bond yields and concerns of a potentially larger-than-expected hike from the Federal Reserve have fueled investor concern in recent days, putting a dent in the early 2023 rally.

    In corporate earnings, Salesforce and Okta shares jumped in on strong results and guidance. Silvergate Capital, meanwhile, shares plunged more than 57%, after the company delayed its 10-K annual report.

    Tesla shares, popular with retail investors, lost 5.8% after the company failed to unveil details of any next-generation vehicles during its much-anticipated investor day Wednesday."

    MY COMMENT

    A very strong day today with the markets telling interest rates to.....go screw themselves. Tomorrow will determine the result for the week....although so far we are positive with one day to go.
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    you called it, boss. just got word that a unit (not mine) is being outsourced and the employees can look within for a transfer or take a severance. dodged a bullet for now, but keep the resume updated.
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL......I will have to leave the markets up to the "professionals" on here tomorrow. That is....Emmett, Zukodany, and Smokie.

    I have to leave at about 9:00AM to head to the studio for the day as we continue to work on material for the new CD. SO......no pressure guys......but it is all up to you.

    I also have a good show on Saturday. It is a great venue with really good sound, a good sound team, and video. We drive for about 1.5 hours.......wait for the opening act to finish.....set up....sound check.....play a single 1.5 hour set......and load out.
     
    #14509 WXYZ, Mar 2, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2023
    zukodany likes this.
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah.....the future of jobs.....but not here in the good old USA. You must be safe Emmett.....since they are looking to promote you. You are also lucky to be within a relative short time to retirement........than....you can focus on what really matters your FILMS.
     
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  10. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yeah, they'd be doing me a favor, forcing me to do what i would love to do. :D
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have to put up one post before I have to leave for the studio in about 15 minutes. I finally found some good charts that show what I talk about often. It is INSANITY and DELUSIONAL how everyone freaks out about the Ten Year Treasury rate. We are still at......HISTORIC low rates....yet everyone acts like we are at historic high rates. It is just IDIOCY on the part of the media. Of course they are being manipulated by short term traders that push this BS.

    HERE are the Ten Year rates from 1926 to now:

    [​IMG]

    AND.....HERE are the rates since 2003:

    [​IMG]

    MY COMMENT

    NO.....rates are NOT currently high.....even in the 4% range. It is all a FALSE NARRATIVE. See this article for more it is the source of these charts.

    A Short History of Interest Rate Cycles

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/03/a-short-history-of-interest-rate-cycles/

    I see that we are now back below the 4% level today.......yes......a rate in the historic low end of the range.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OK people......make me some money today. Have a great day everyone.
     
  13. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yesterday, while looking through the actual earnings report I noticed the information below. I thought it was interesting. I knew they were a large company, but I never thought about other locations.

    Costco currently operates 848 warehouses, including 584 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 107 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 31 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 18 in Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 14 in Australia, four in Spain, two each in France and China, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. Costco also operates e-commerce sites in the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia.
     
  14. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Well...you asked....we delivered. $$$$:booyah:
     
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  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    The close today.

    SP 500 ( + 1.61% ) DJIA (+ 1.17%) NASDAQ (+ 1.97%)

     
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  16. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Next time I am around Paris, I'm going to Costco to check it out!
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I got back after a ten hour day. We got two more songs pretty well done. We have to add the final vocals, solos, and fills.

    The markets today.....you guys did GREAT. You made me a nice healthy gain today. I was definately in the green today with only a single down stock....COSTCO. It was down by 2.15%. I also got in the smallest possible beat on the SP500......by 0.01%.

    I am now Up by +9.38% year to date.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the averages.....a KILLER week.

    DOW year to date +0.74%
    DOW for the week +1.75%

    SP500 year to date +5.37%
    SP500 for the week +1.90%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +12.55%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week +2.70%

    NASDAQ year to date +11.68%
    NASDAQ for the week +2.58%

    RUSSELL year to date +9.48%
    RUSSELL for the week +2.00%

    A very nice week for the markets in spite of spiking Ten Year Treasury yields, the talking FED, and earnings. The year is coming together very nicely as we continue with the new BULL MARKET. WELL.....new since about July of 2022. We needed this week to reassert the UP market for investors.
     

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