So, before I even get started with my post here. I will just quickly point out that I have been touching on this topic over the past several weeks now. Here from our main market daily discussion thread from the other week. And also more recently in here over in W's long term investors thread. I just wanted to get a quick temperature check on the community here, and see what others are thinking, and to see if it's possibly just a local issue (aka - a bigbear0083 only dilemma lul). Which is very possible since I'll admit my heads not been engaged in the markets quite nearly as frequently as it had been in previous years for sure. I'm kinda just looking to see if we have others within this community who are also experiencing this so-called market exhaustion/fatigue/etc that I've been referring it to. What I mean by this is, just the overall day-to-day monitoring of the markets over the last little while (past year really). IDK, I can't really put a finger on it exactly...but somethings definitely changed within me lately where my interest in monitoring the day-to-day market has waned quite precipitously over the past year now and I'm not quite sure what to attribute this to as and was wondering if it was just me that was feeling this lately or if we had any others on this board who can also relate? I've been in this gig as either a trader or observer on coming up to close to 2 decades now. But, the past year now has felt very different for me. Different as in the market has felt very, IDK how to call it.......uninspiring I guess? That might not be the correct word I'm looking for, but maybe it is. Basically just this lack of interest in the overall markets nowadays. Which was crazy to fathom for me just a few years back as I've been nothing but market monitoring for years and years dating back even pre-GFC (great financial crisis). But, the past year now, and especially this year my interest in the markets has just tanked to nearly zilch. Like, I used to be very fanatical covering the daily markets. And was very motivated and eager to talk about it daily. But nowadays I could give 2 shits anymore lolol. I can't totally put a finger on exactly why this is for me now. IDK, maybe it's just me? Also quick full disclosure here: I don't have any skin the game atm except for holding some GLD in my long term account. That's basically it. I'm not even monitoring that at all either, although it has seen a nice little ride higher in the past few weeks which has been nice ngl haha. But, yeah, IDK man... I was just looking to see if any others in here also felt the same way towards the daily markets nowadays or if this was just a "ME" issue lol. I know one might say that maybe it's just the general bear market that we've had lately that's got people uninterested in the markets? Possibly so. But, I'll fully confess that I live for bear markets (I mean, unless one can't actually interpret that from my username handle that I've been sporting forever now lmao). So, it's not really a bear market issue for me at all. It could be however that the markets have been very range bound and trend-less per say. This is true. If you look at a year chart of say the Dow 30 (major index), it's gone basically nowhere since last January (15 months!). That's definitely a bit stretched on the "range bound" department lol. These are just assumptions of mine of course, so just take it with a grain of salt. I'm just really for the life of me just trying to figure this one out but haven't been successful thus far and was just looking to see if any others on this board share a somewhat similar sentiment towards the markets lately. I do greatly appreciate any of you who took the time to sit through this hideous wall of text post of mine here! It did admittedly take a bit of time to write out too haha. I'm not sure what'll get me to snap out of this mode tbh. Perhaps if we see some directional market move in which ever direction (preferably down than up tbh lmao) that might get my interest again. But this 2 steps forward, then 2 steps back action that basically lands us to net zero-ish change is kinda getting a little played out and mundane at best for me. Let's see what these next several weeks/months do from here. Just not sure what gets these markets out of this current range bound environment outside of your garden variety black swan event Thanks again taking the time to read this post! Enjoy weekend and the whole 9 yards gang. take care, -bb.
bigbear0083...First let me say, I enjoy reading your posts on here when you do post. I don't share your hopes for a bigger bear though...LOL. And I mean that in a nice way. Although, it would and does allow me to accumulate more at a better price. Anyway, I think based on what you have mentioned about being so focused for the many years you indicated, maybe you have just wore yourself out from the vigilant focus over a long period of time. I have been a long term investor for a long time and there have been times where I have went quite long stretches without paying much attention to the markets. Of course my investing style would generally allow me to do that at about anytime. You also mentioned you currently do not have anything in the market, so maybe that is some of the lack of interest too. I think a bit of the fatigue could be from what and how we have experienced over the past year or so. The inflation, rate hike, CPI, FED meetings, and all of that has been covered almost to an extreme. It's been so hyper focused on even the slightest details and it has been delivered by the tons. Just the constant drum beat about it and obsession over tiny little movements. Not that some information is not important for investors, but the constant microscopic examination of it is a bit too much in my opinion. For me, I'm still in tune with the markets and all this other noise, but maybe I might not be so much if I did not enjoy interacting/posting with others on this forum. Outside of here, I probably wouldn't give much attention to a lot of it. Like I said, I could be pretty detached from it all since I am passive in my investing plan I guess. Since I don't do any active trading, the forum gives me something to do investment related....since my plan is pretty much set and forget. I think most investors, whether they actively trade or are long termers, experience some disconnect at times. I wouldn't worry too much about it. The more you try to figure it out, the more it will nag at you to find a reason...LOL.
Hey @Smokie! Thanks a ginormous amount for chiming in here man. I really greatly appreciate you taking the time to write that all out. Also, my apologies for the late-ish response back in here lol. I was debating if I should get back after this weekend since I'll be out of town until Monday. But, I just got back from my family night out on this Friday with just a little bit of time to spare before I headed off for the hay. So, thought I could get in this quick reply while I had just a few minutes on here. So, I think I agree with a lot of what you said. I think it's possible that not having any skin in the game atm makes it hard to really garner too much interest in the market on a day-to-day basis anymore. I'll admit, I don't play the equities game anymore...or at least haven't for some years now. I mostly dabble in futures trading like the spuz (/ES futures). And yes, most of the time those trades are very short-term. Maximum a day hold or so lol. Though, I haven't done any trading at all since the start of this year. Like legit, absolutely zilch. This has been a mix of different reasons that I've had to endure in my own personal IRL (in real life). I won't get into all the details of those to bore you guys (the readers) out lmao. I'll just say I have had a ton to deal with outside of the markets and the internet, which has made it quite challenging monitoring the market very closely. But, yes. I think you hit the nail on the head precisely as far as those other factors that may be giving me this market exhaustion feeling right now. I think the constant same old news day in and day out, which the market keeps reacting to positively then negative then positively (rinse and repeat basically), hence creating this massive range bound market that we've been in for such a long period of time can get a bit exhausting, even for a seasoned market veteran like myself lmao. And I say this not even having any skin in it! Hence, I feel like the markets are kinda stale right now with no direction at all. Perhaps like I said in my post previously before, if there was some convicing directional move in one direction of the other, that may start to peak my interest again. But, again it's like 2 steps forward, then 2 steps back, rinse and repeat with this market for the past very many months now lul. Which, don't get me wrong btw! I'm certainly not sitting here to suggest that one can't successfully trade these ranges and be hella profitable either! Nah. I'm sure the swing traders of the world out there is having a doggone field day trading this range bound over the past little while haha. For me, I do like directional moves best and have found to be the most profitable/successful/etc. Though, I realize that's largely for the shorter term traders and not for the long termers. But yeah, IDK... Maybe it's just time for me to find a new hobby after nearly 2 decades of doing nothing but closely monitoring the markets on a daily basis lol. I say "hobby" btw, as trading and daily market monitoring is not my primary job. It's been a nice little thing to monitor everyday of the week, but it isn't something that I revolve my life around to be sure haha. Guess we'll just have to wait and see where this market finally decides to go. I'm hoping we'll finally see a more trending kinda market in whichever direction it decides to take and stick with it, instead of this range bound action which can sometimes make it a bit uninteresting for me can't deny that. Again, if it decides to meltdown, that's wholly fine with me (and preferably so at that sorry to say it! lol). Just pick a doggone direction already Mr. Market and stick with it! Not sure if I'm feeling all too optimistic about those prospects just quite fast yet but we shall see. Thanks again for you chiming in here @Smokie! Can't say it enough but it was nice coming on here just now and reading your post...and btw likewise right back 'atcha! I've very much enjoyed reading the great contributions you've been adding in here for a good while now as well. Keep up the good work. Take care, -bb.
BTW, last post before I officially headed off to start my weekend here (I promise lol) Please excuse the horrible representation of the following chart. I'm a little lazy to open my ToS platform to throw on a more eye appealing chart (it's very late here on the east past midnight now lol), so y'all's will have to deal with having to look at this hideous Google Finance line chart hahaha. I'm just using the cash S&P 500 index in this example here, but I think a few of the other major indices look kinda similar. (Quick sidenote: My top and bottom horizontal lines on this chart do not mean anything at all, so don't worry about trying to interpret what any of them mean. ) I've just slapped those on there real quickly to give a very brief visual to the readers out there to illustrate on a chart the very "range bound" action in the market as represented by the S&P 500 index over the past almost full calendar's year. We'll call it 4200-ish on the upside and 3600-ish on the downside, with a few false breaks in both directions. Let's just call a spade a spade here shall we? But, this has been purely sideways with absolutely no trend. Again, not trying to say this can't be profitable for anyone. Sure, every person has their own strat that works for them. For me, I'm very much in the camp of directional moves in either direction. Have a great weekend guys! Will catch up later next week. Cheers.
Well, I hope that whatever it is, you find your way through it and all is well. May time pass and find you sitting in a nice sunny spot in life. It does seem that way. To me, there is just this uncertainty hanging around...and we all know and see some of these issues. Until we see some of it resolved or things "break" one way or the other. I'll just stick to may plan and let it sort out however that may be.
Fight it! Maybe its time to focus on something more specific in the market? Where is the next big sector coming from? Is it AI related? Which companies are going to lifting the S&P for the next 10yrs?
I am a hard core, long term hold, investor; have been for decades. I've been outspoken about this but I was a trader, at one time so I have a perspective on the phenomenon described by the OP. Back in the day, I would become disinterested during periods when the market was either stagnant or pulling back. I was affected the same as every other trader I know. When times are good, traders talk about how great they are doing. When times are bad, traders don't talk about it. i believe traders, myself from that period included, are looking for confirmation of their greatness. This is the rush of trading. This is the proof of exceptionalism. I've seen it over and over and over. The pattern is clear. In the early 1990s, I made a ton of money. Everyone did. I didn't just imagine it. In the mid 90s, I purchased an apartment block. Cash. The thing is, the markets were exploding. I was selecting companies that had PE ratios of 1.8 to 4.5 on the riskier side. People did not believe in the stock market, for several years. Warren Buffett talks about the period during which you couldn't give stock away. If I had held my companies long term, I would have made more money. It's a shame it took me a few years to realize it. Implementing a detailed performance tracking system in Lotus 123 was a lesson in humility. It rocked my whole world, took a few weeks to internalize, and lead to my abrupt change from 0 to 2 year hold to long term hold. It also lead to me being able to retire by 40 years of age, although a portion of that was jihadist level of earning and saving as well as RE gains. I fully understand, readers of this post are thinking, "Well sure, he is an average trader so he was wise to get out but I am way above average." Nobody thinks they are average. Ask 100 people and 90 will tell you they are way above average. 10 of those people will tell you they are average. I was average. The thing is, my REITs that have paid 9% since 2011 continue to do so. That includes this year and last. Meanwhile, the small financial that I bought in 2016 is way down from peak. It was a rocket ride, then took back most of it's gains by the end of 2022. I continue to be a happy owner of that company because I believe in the people running it and I am confident they will do well over the next decade. It happens to be distributing at 5.5% based on current price but the dividend hasn't changed since two years ago when it was 4.1%, just the valuation. I've scooped a bit more of this company in 2023 but not a lot. Long term investing has the dynamic of a constrictor snake. When markets are down, distributions are used to add more shares to the portfolio. The portfolio shrinks in valuation but gains in corporate ownership. When the market returns, the portfolio goes even higher. A long term investor has seen this cycle multiple times and understands what is happening. If I was still trading, I would be busy trying to figure out why the magic has gone away. I was a happy trader. I'm not any happier now but I am completely pragmatic about my current net worth being up or down while I enjoy an early retirement.
Firstly, I just wanna extend a big time thank you to y'all's who've chimed in here with your inputs. It does mean a lot. Much appreciate it! I think it's possible that I maybe didn't explain myself that well, despite the large walls of text that I did write up in this thread. I feel like @Smokie kinda hit the nail on the head with his general synopsis the other day. I think for me not having any skin in this right now is the likely culprit for me feeling this "disinterest" in the day-to-day markets nowadays. As it isn't necessarily about a short-term or long term issue here for me at all. But also, that it may be time for me to move on to some other interests. Like I said before, I've been in this gig for nearing 2 decades now. I was most active during the 2010s. But, as I've grown older I feel like I just don't have that motivational drive to monitor the markets on a daily basis anymore. And BTW when I say "monitor the markets" does not imply "trading" or nothing either. But rather just simply "observing" things on a daily basis. I used to be very into this, and would read up market related news and articles and would post my thoughts each day, kinda like what @WXYZ currently does in his The Long Term Investor thread and has for the many years here now. In fact, I wrote up a pretty lengthy post to his thread here giving him some much deserved props and kudos for staying so consistent in what he does. Like, it's really pretty remarkable to me just how consistent he has been with providing actionable market content in his thread every single day. And a lot of his content is OC (original content) which is even more the impressive to me. He is the perfect definition in my books of what a true "content creator" looks like imho. My point? I think after nearly 20 years in this, it may just be time for me to move onto something entirely new now. I don't know what that might be yet. Again, like I said before, I can't really put a finger on it exactly, but I think it's just a mix of not having skin in the game anymore, but also this drumbeat of the same old news day in and day out which has caused the markets to kinda range bound for a very long time might also have something to do with it. Hence why I might be feeling a bit uninspired by the the day-to-day market monitoring nowadays. IDK, I'm just thinking out loud here is all. That being all said, I wonder too if this might be a result of me just feeling a little spoiled? I say "spoiled" in that the market volatility that we've seen since basically COVID has remained pretty heightened even to this day. Case in point - when the markets were more narrow range trading during much of the 2010s, days like we see today were pretty doggone extraordinary. But, now as this has become more of the norm in the market over the past few years, it doesn't quite have that pizazz now, as it did back then. I'm just speaking for myself here when I say that BTW, and not implying that everyone is feeling that way. Anyway don't mind me, I may just be rambling along here...and sorry for that in advance. At the end of the day it's no big deal of course, and as @Smokie had alluded to the other day, I think for me trying to figure it all out is maybe a bit of a futile effort. Hence, I think ima just take a longer-ish break from everything to do with the markets. And who knows, maybe I'll get interested in it again at some point later down the road? But, it might just be time for me to explore something entirely new. We shall see. Sidenote: Perhaps if we see another 2008-ish type market event that might peak my interest again too. Thanks again for all the great inputs in here guys! It's was very much greatly appreciated. Cheers!
Just coming back to this for one final time (sorry for the thread bump in advance btw!) I was contemplating possibly changing over the title of this thread, as I was thinking that maybe the name of this thread doesn't really do it justice to describe the message exactly that I was trying to relay in here. I feel like people who might be lurking here might think of "market fatigue" as if one is over trading, or as if one is just over analyzing things too much, neither of which I was referring to in my OP lol. But rather, I meant how I've grown a little disinterested of the "day-to-day" if you will. And this isn't a result of being unsuccessful or anything either. Call it a case of the "daily grinds" haha. IDK how to best describe it really. It's not that one is losing in the market, or that one is just wearing themselves out everyday. Nah, nothing like that here. I think it's just that things aren't moving along as much as they used to back in the days or that things aren't as interesting as they were for me. I don't mean just the stock market per say. I mean the overall news flow has been a bit stagnant too. But, bleh... Just that maybe it's time for me to explore something different for a change lol. Don't get me wrong! I've been a crazy market enthusiast for years and years and years. And, while part of me kind of misses the action a bit. I think my IRL (in real life) being as turbulent as it has been lately (making no bones about it here). It's been close to impossible for me to concentrate on the markets much at all nowadays. It kinda sucks ngl, but such is life sometimes I guess. :/ Meanwhile, something else that has been perking up on my mind lately and wanted to quickly bring up for a discussion in here. I've been trying to wrap my head around this one for a bit, but as we've seen inflation ripping faces off domestically and abroad over the past year, it's been a little mystery to me how the jobs market has held up so resiliently during this time, couple that with the recent fallouts with some of the banking issues, there still seems to be no material impact to the employment picture yet. I can't totally wrap my head around that one. But, if someone wants to give it a go on explaining that one for me would be kindly appreciated haha. Case in point? This recession (and yes, I do think we are in one, despite not technically being in one officially, with 2 consecutive negative quarterly GDP prints) is unlike any other one's I've remember from the past. Thus, it's had me wondering... How much of this is a result of the extraordinary measure that were taken after COVID? I'm primarily speaking of the FED's actions here. It seems to me like that did some funny things and I'm not sure how much of this can be attributed to this weird recession we're seeing today where not everything is in sync if you will. (eg, jobs market being resilient, while most other econ indicators have been weakening) IDK...maybe I'm just rambling along here again. But, if someone could maybe try to handicap that one for me would be quite enlightening to hear. Overall, I think I'm just in search of something new. And maybe I've just gotten a bit tired of the daily grind for so many years lmao. I take it that not anyone else on this board is feeling this way as I which is fine. Who knows. Like I had said in my previous post before this one. Maybe another 2008-ish event will be what the doctor ordered to get me back in. For now, I do think a nice long hiatus may be in order for me. Honestly, I'm actually thinking of taking up some traveling this year tbh. Now with COVID kinda in the rear view (not actually, but I mean more like not being such a deadly threat as it was initially). There have been so many places I've wanted to visit that I never got a chance to, either because of the pandemic, or because I was left with care taking for my nephew. He's grown a lot older now that he doesn't need someone to look out after him now. So, I can now explore some of the things that I've always wanted to do. I think my first trip will either be out to Alaska or Hawaii. Shout out to @stock1234 here as he is our resident Hawaiian in the group here. Anyway, I'll just leave it at that and will be interested to hear from others inputs on this again and I much appreciate that once again! I hope all of you had a great Q1 to start this year. And here's to an awesome rest of your year! Sidenote: If a black swan does rear its head this year, I'll probably be back in here regularly again lolol. Until then, I'll be MIA from the markets.
Well if you are coming to Hawaii then feel free to PM me Cy, maybe I can give you some suggestions on where to go to or what to eat in Honolulu
@bigbear0083... I just saw your thread I tend to stay in my lane but figure I would chime in your thread with a bit of a similar experience and what I did. You are on the right track by taking a trip to Alaska or Hawaii the key then is to not look at anything to do with the market which is kind of hard because of different news outlet you will encounter. What we did was travel thru the East Coast of Canada camping with the odd day here and there stay at hotels so even those days that we went for comfort it was too tiring or late to pay attention to anything the market had to offer. I believe the truth is not being told about a lot of things out there so as not to scare the public and yes 2qts of negative growth is a recession which a new name was given to it, CPI is manipulated so it's not a true indicator. Covid did play part in it and the "elephant" that no one wants to talk about. If one had listened to Powell latest speech the "elephant" was not mentioned my guess is he truly can't say what he know is the cause of this inflation that is happening cause the shit will hit the fan.
Thanks for chiming in @stock1234 and @hitman and great to hear from you 2 again. You guys are some of the eldest timers from the old HSM so getting to reconnect with y'all's again is always awesome. Sounds great @stock1234, I'll be sure to hit you up with quick PM once I decide where I wanna travel to first haha. I'm leaning toward Alaska first as I heard it's super amazing out there during the Spring/Summer. And I'll admit I'm a yuuuuge fan of the great wilderness. Hence, Alaska is definitely my kinda place! Then perhaps once the weather gets cold during the winter season I'll head out your way. I'm thinking maybe during holiday period (Thanksgiving or Christmas time). And thanks to you also @hitman appreciate those tips bigly time! Yeah, exactly as you had alluded to, I was thinking of just completely disconnecting myself from the markets. Like legit, deleting every single market-related app I have on my phone. As you said, that could be slightly hard to avoid due to the different news outlets that I might stumble across out there. But, ima try my best not to pay any attention to them while out on my trip. Again, could be a little easier said than done there. But, I think deleting those market-related apps or at least shutting down the notifications settings on those apps will be super helpful. And I 1000% agreed with all that you said also. I feel like there is definitely something shady going on under the hood that we're not being told. I feel like chickens will eventually come home to roost. I still feel like we never really got the real washout in this market. I know I've brought that up at length over in the main market discussion thread a number of times in the past. But, I think until we see this materialize, it could be kind directionless. It's weird, I've following markets since dating back to like 2005. I'm really not sure if there was ever a period of time since that stretch that I ever felt so disinterested in the market. I know some folks who've chimed in here earlier might've assumed that this was a result of me over trading, or just spending too much time over analyzing things, and/or losing in the market, etc etc. But, that wasn't the case at all for me here. I don't know how to best describe it, but it is more just being kind of bored with the markets now, which I know might be one of the most wildest things I might've ever said during my tenure at this community. Don't think I've ever felt "bored" with the market since GFC tbh. So this is rare territory for me lol. I think once someone gets to the point that I'm at right now where they just don't give a shit about the market anymore, that's the cue that one needs to step away and take a nice long break from looking at the markets. And, well, that is precisely what ima do very soon-ish with those aforementioned trips I'm planning to take this year. That being all said, if there is ever is a black swan-ish market event in offing, you can bet I'll be back pretty fast lol. For now, the market to me feels a little uninteresting to me here. Just very directionless and has been for a while. That isn't to say that $$$ can't be made in these kinds of market environments. But, for me, I prefer more of a trending market, whether up or down. Range bound markets are kinda not my cup of tea but to each their own haha. Thanks again for awesome inputs in here guys! Let's see how the rest of this year pans out. Ima just say it again, I don't think the bear lows that we saw last Oct. are going to be "the" lows of this bear cycle. Been saying for a long time and continue to believe that a trip down to the pre-COVID peak still needs a good test which we never got last year. We'll see what'll actually be the straw (catalyst) the breaks this camels back. Stay tuned eh. Have a great rest of your year everyone!
You act like your boyfriend left you for another woman. Grow up and quit whining. No need to announce your departure I don't think the 12 active members give a flying shit, otherwise they'd be active on the stonkfailuresite. Prick your finger and go Kodiak bear hunting, be a man. BYE.........
I'm new to investing, selling stock, so I don't feel any discomfort about learning how to make money. Recently I decided to take up selling stocks, since I kept hearing about how people were getting rich off of it. I chose a service to work with, just read forex.com broker review on one website, and started earning. I am impressed with the result, and it also motivates me to keep doing this business and develop myself in the field of stock trading.
MY FEAR is our market is next, after all the fatigue of recent years. I'm political in the sense that recent years have been about power and control. Control money and you win...
You do realize that people here actually like Cy and his posts, right? It's you nobody gives a shit about. And yes, Cy, I have not followed the market very much at all since I went all in a couple years ago. I'm letting it ride and letting WXYZ do all the news gathering for me. The man is a national treasure.
My favorite butt sniffer has spoken. We've been bitch slapping Cybaby or whatever his name is this week for around the 20 years he's been in the markets. I can understand you want to feel important and cheerlead for the gang but you simply have no clue.
