That Land Rover was really a good investment. Since we are talking about cars, today I decided to invest some money in 4 companies that I'd like to own and believe in their product. The 4 companies are Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet. I already own some Tesla shares, bought in October last year. The interesting thing about this investment money, is that it came from NOT owning a car over the last 3 years. It's amazing how much you can save just by not having a car.
Unfortunately Strathmore.....it was a money loser for me......since we gave it to one of our kids and they are the one that made money on it. BUMMER. By the way.....that is a great list of companies that you bought.
I was EXTREMELY surprised to see a few minutes ago that I actually ended in the GREEN today. BUT....I got beat by the SP500 by 0.33%. I am happy to just get the win...it seemed like I was down all day. Obviously the markets made a nice come-back in the final hour or so while I was not watching. In the end I had six stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. The losers today were....AMZN, NKE, MSFT, and TSLA. I expected TESLA to be down today and they did not surprise me. I see the come-back today as yet another indicator of the strength of the underlying markets....they just refuse to be held down for long.
HERE is the market close today. Dow closes 300 points higher to begin April’s trading, S&P 500 notches fourth day of gains: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/02/nas...g-day-of-the-second-quarter-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 300 points on Monday, as Wall Street shows resilience despite an oil output cut from OPEC+ that threatens to stoke inflation and recession fears. The Dow climbed 327 points, or 0.98%, to close at 33,601.15. The S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.37%, closing at 4,124.51. It was the fourth positive session for both indexes. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.27% to end the session at 12,189.45. Markets spent much of the trading session digesting the news from OPEC+ which is slashing 1.16 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 6.28% to settle at $80.42, and Brent futures rose 6.31% to settle at $84.93. The prospect of higher oil prices could add further unease to Wall Street as the output cut plays out, according to Morningstar energy strategist Stephen Ellis. “The actual cut itself was less of a surprise, given the large increase in global inventories and recession concerns, likely increased by the recent banking struggles,” he said. “Higher oil prices are likely to provide a modest boost to inflation, providing more of a dampening effect on the economy.” But Wall Street is shaking off the latest development, and adding to a recent string of gains. All three major averages were positive in the first quarter, despite turmoil in the banking sector highlighted by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The Nasdaq Composite led the way in the quarter with a gain of 16.8% while the S&P 500 rose 7% in the first three months of the year for its second-straight positive quarter. The Dow lagged but still managed to grind out an advance of 0.4%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR fund (XLE), which tracks the S&P 500 energy sector, popped more than 4%. Marathon Oil and Halliburton were the fund’s best performers, rising nearly 9.9% and 7.7%, respectively. Still, the recent rally may be short lived given stronger macroeconomic factors, according to OANDA senior market analyst Ed Moya. “This current macro backdrop isn’t conducive for a meaningful stock market rally: The economy is recession bound as the consumer is clearly weakening, lending is about to get ugly, energy cost uncertainty will remain elevated for a while, and monetary policy is finally restrictive and about to break parts of the economy,” Moya said. The first week of the new quarter is a shortened one for Wall Street, as trading will be closed for Good Friday. However, there will be several key pieces of economic data for investors, including job openings data on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday and the closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday."" MY COMMENT I like the comment above about the "short lived" rally. Actually from what I see it has been going on now for at least NINE MONTHS. Although....you will not see any of the so called "professionals" say this. Likewise the comment that the economy is recession bound.......really? I dont see any indication of this actually happening at all. It still might happen...but there is nothing indicating this at the moment.
So many companies doing mass layoffs. They sent everyone home to avoid riots in the office. When businesses get back up again, I suspect AI will be responsible for it. All the big banks had a meeting recently to talk about the bank collapses. I'm wondering if they are gearing up to do crypto. Seems like America is getting hit on all front and my paranoid my starts thinking. So many countries hate America and want our reserve currency gone. China has AI and factories, the could send a million AI robot drones our way at the same time Russia sends a Nuke and maybe North Korea also has something to add, take out our satellite or something. I would like to think our military could easily handle it, but China just casually floated a spy balloon over. We spend billions in defense.
It is strange, but I also see it as an indication of a new norm regarding layoffs (and society in general): totally void of humanity and free from guilt.
As a shareholder i am very happy to see this. These big tech companies were totally out of control for decades on the perks and other ridiculous goodies that they doled out to employees. In fact much of the work that the over-privileged workers were dong or in some cases "pretending to do" has been shown to be easily outsourced to workers from a borderline third world country....India. It is way past time for corporate boards to clamp down on these perks. They are a total waste of shareholder money. Talk about wasting shareholder value. It is way past time for these companies to focus on one thing.....BUSINESS. The way these companies were operating just leads to a LAZY and FAT company.....with a massive overlay of entitlement. Google Cuts Expand to Laptops, Services, Even Staplers https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/google-tech-cuts-silicon-valley/2023/04/03/id/1114905/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Ruth Porat, the chief financial officer of Alphabet and its subsidiary Google, told employees in an email memo last week that the company would be cutting various services. On Monday, CNBC reported that those service slashes would include cuts to fitness classes, staplers, tape, and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees. "Just as we did in 2008, we'll be looking at data to identify other areas of spending that aren't as effective as they should be, or that don't scale at our size," Porat's email read, according to The Wall Street Journal. "This work is particularly vital because of our recent growth, the challenging economic environment, and our incredible investment opportunities to drive technology forward — particularly in AI," she added. In her email, Porat described the cuts as part of "big, multi-year efforts" to "deliver durable savings through improved velocity and efficiency." Rather than handing out Apple MacBooks, the company plans to provide employees with the far less expensive Chromebook laptops by default, internal documents reviewed by CNBC showed. In addition, employees can no longer buy mobile phones using company credit if one is available internally. Google campuses might also close cafes on Mondays and Fridays and shut down some underutilized facilities. A spokesperson later told the network that Alphabet was "making some practical changes to help us remain responsible stewards of our resources while continuing to offer industry-leading perks, benefits and amenities." The move comes after Google's parent company announced in January that it would eliminate 12,000 jobs, approximately 6% of its workforce, ahead of slowing sales growth." MY COMMENT YEP....the glory days for employees at these big companies is OVER. The companies are waking up to the new power dynamic.....they have all the power. My view is that much of this sort of tightening is just the first small impact of what is coming quickly with.....AI. These employees are inventing and quickly implementing the entity that will take their jobs and make them irrelevant. Basically these companies in the future will .....MANUFACTURE.....that is it. Most of the thinking and management functions will not require the services of a person. Of course that manufacturing.....will mostly be done in third world countries when it requires humans.
I like this little article. The Good & Bad of Investing in the Stock Market https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/04/the-good-and-the-bad-investing-in-the-stock-market/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "I like to look at both sides of things because so many aspects of life have some sort of balance. You don’t get the good without the bad, the reward without the risk, the pleasure without the pain or the bull markets without the bear markets. This past week I looked at some of the reasons the stock market can make you feel terrible all the time. And while it’s true the stock market can be unforgiving in the short-run, even over relatively short periods of time the stock market can be a fun place too. Here is a look at rolling one year returns for the S&P 500 back to 1926: Plenty of bad times to be sure but the stock market has been up in 75% of all rolling one year returns in this time.1 You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to deduce the fact that this means the market has been down 1 out of every 4 years (on average). Those are pretty decent odds. The bad times are painful but the good times more than make up for it. To emphasize this point, it can be helpful to go beyond just positive or negative returns and look at different magnitudes of performance over these one year periods. For instance, the S&P 500 has been down 10% or worse in around 13% of all rolling one year periods. But the market has been up by 10% or more 57% of the time. The gains outweigh the losses at other magnitudes as well: The stock market is down 20% or worse 6% of the time but up 20% or more almost 34% of the time over rolling one year periods. Nearly one out of every five one year periods is up 30% or more while the market is down 30% or worse less than 3% of the time. Forty percent moves over a one year time frame are rare but even then the gains outweigh the losses by a factor of almost 7-to-1. The latest 12 month return through the end of March is a loss of around 8%. Losses of 8% or worse have only occurred in 15% of historical one year returns. Most of the time things are better than the current market environment but I guess that’s the rub when investing in stocks. Most of the time things are pretty good and sometimes they’re pretty bad. You don’t get one without the other." MY COMMENT My primary focus in how and why I invest is all about.....PROBABILITY. Looking at the above....that is what I call extreme probability. The above is a simply view of the power of long term continuous investing.
We start today with the Ten Year Treasury at 3.475%. Amazingly we are STILL at the extreme low of the historical rates of the past 100 years. Here is a couple of views of the history of the Ten Year Treasury yield: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate/table/by-year
Today and this week will be ultimate examples of.....NO-NEWS and IRRELEVANT-NEWS...... days for the markets. The media focus is all self absorbed yelling this week. As I look at the actual financial "news" today.....I SEE NOTHING. I feel like Sgt Schultz on Hogan's Heroes. Or to continue the....TV SHOW......analysis of the markets as they would say about the Seinfeld show.....it is a show about "nothing". The short term markets right now are being driven simply by the underlying strength of the markets. It is nice that nothing is going on. At this moment investors have a CLEAR VIEW of the underlying condition of the markets in general. There is relatively nothing happening to impact stocks and funds. To top it all off.....this week will only be a four day week for investors. The markets will be closed for Good Friday.
Sad, but a true simple statement that could apply to many things we are experiencing nowadays. Maybe one day we could find our way back to this: I expect to pass through life but once. If therefore, there be any kindness I can show, or any good thing I can do to any fellow being, let me do it now, and not defer or neglect it, as I shall not pass this way again. (William Penn).
Some interesting posts/discussion about the whole AI boom. I figure we have not even scratched the surface of what it may become nor how it will be used. Surely, there will be some benefit from it as with many new/uncharted things....but... What concerns me is the amount of money and potential power that will come from it. The race among companies and how they utilize it. The incentive to "sabotage" other competitors will simply be too great. There will be no boundaries nor rules that will not be broken. And yes, our favorite Tech companies will be right in the thick of it. The monetary gain for this development will be so great I think we can throw out any suggestion of companies being careful about what it can be used for or how they will use it. I did see the article about some of the companies urging caution about going too far too fast. That is their CYA moment....and then feverishly went right back to development. Even if there is an associated risk, they will believe they can mitigate it or control it in someway, that's just how they are wired to think. Plus, the money factor will over ride any sense of responsibility. That alone doesn't even touch the idea of military powers. The genie is out of the bottle at this point. I don't pretend to know much about it other than what little I have read. I find it very interesting and somewhat concerning at the same time.
Looks like we have been in the red since the start today. I thought we all agreed there were to be no red days this week. Well, I guess the day is not over yet...get going Mr. Market.
As to your AI post Smokie. I agree......and....AI will be the ultimate shield for companies. No doubt we will constantly hear how the AI went rogue and did this or that. It will be impossible to know if it was intentional. As to all the warnings and CYA letters, etc, etc......no, we will never get this stuff under control once it is unleashed. It will escape onto the internet and be self-perpetuating. We cant even manage to ban a simple Chinese spy tool.......TikTok.....so how in the world are we going to have any control over an intelligent electronic, thinking entity.
I HATE.....market days like this that are driven by some BIG news event that has no relation to the markets or investing. Hopefully we will be clear of the Huge media event today and will be able to move forward with more normal markets.
This will not be a good thing.......for the average taxpayer. Yellen: IRS to Unveil $80B Spending Plan This Week https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/irs-80-billion-spending-plan/2023/04/04/id/1115028/
If we can get past the political drama....this could be a basis for a nice day tomorrow. Job opening data shows signs of the 'better balance' Powell, Fed have been seeking https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-opening-data-jolts-powell-fed-better-balance-170515210.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Job openings fell in February to the lowest in nearly two years as the labor market trends towards the "better balance" Federal Reserve officials, including chair Jerome Powell, have been seeking. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, released Tuesday showed there were 9.9 million jobs open at the end of the month, down from 10.6 million in January and 11.6 million in the same month last year. Job openings peaked at over 12 million in March 2022; since that peak, the U.S. economy has added 10.25 million new jobs. This slowdown in the number of open positions also suggests the labor market is trending toward an equilibrium between supply and demand the Fed has seen as pushing wages and inflation higher in recent years. "The labor force participation rate has edged up in recent months, and wage growth has shown some signs of easing," Powell said in a press conference last month. "However, with job vacancies still very high, labor demand substantially exceeds the supply of available workers. FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wages and prices." The Fed has raised rates from a range of 0%-0.25% at the beginning of 2022 to a target range of 4.75%-5% today, the highest level since 2007. Progress on bringing down the number of open roles in the economy, however, is in the eyes of some economists just that: progress. "While the Fed will welcome the softening in the data, officials will put much more stock in Friday's employment report and will continue to raise rates at the coming meetings to ensure further progress is made toward softer labor market conditions and lower inflation," Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. Economists expect Friday's jobs report will show 240,000 jobs created last month, according to data from Bloomberg. Over the last six months, job gains have averaged 343,000 per month. This decline in open roles also comes as some private sector reports suggest a chunk of open roles are for jobs that don't exist in practice. Last month, The Wall Street Journal, citing data from Clarify Capital, reported that a third of hiring managers said open roles stayed up as a signal to existing employees that help was on the way. But the "softening" in the labor market that Powell and others hope to achieve by raising interest rates will need to be considerable given the heights the labor market has reached in the years since the pandemic. To bring job openings down to levels that served as records pre-pandemic, for instance, another 3 million open roles would need to be cut from the economy. "Openings remain noticeably above the highs of prior cycles," wrote Wells Fargo economists in a note to clients on Tuesday. "At the same time, and despite the steady drumbeat of layoff announcements in recent months, businesses still seem fairly keen to hold onto workers. The layoff and discharge rate dipped back to 1% in February, compared to an average of 1.2% over 2018-2019." Look at announcements from the tech sector, signals from the bond market, and fears emanating from the banking world, and recession risks seem omnipresent. Survey-based data also suggests a rising disenchantment with the economy from both consumers and businesses. "Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." But the hard data collected by government agencies in the same manner, month after month, shows an economy that continues to be resilient." MY COMMENT I love this little "twisted" comment...."the hard data collected by government agencies in the same manner, month after month, shows an economy that continues to be resilient." They can not bring themselves to say that there is NO indication of a recession. The poor FED......they dont have a clue and I think they actually think they have some control over the economy. What it is going to take to get back to "normal"......is a year or two of deadlocked government to tamp down the massive spending and economic stimulus that came from government and CAUSED this inflation. The FED has no control over this.....they even refuse to acknowledge it. The good news.......this is likely to help the markets over the short term.......like perhaps over the rest of this week.
ANOTHER day today that I am very surprised by the markets and results in my accounts. I was very close to having an UP day. I was in the RED but....if I had managed to have one more stock UP today I would have been in the green. As it was I has six stocks down and four UP. The four that were UP are....AMZN, NKE, COST, and GOOGL. At this moment the past few days have really NOT impacted my year to date in a negative way....at this moment after today I am at......+15.60% year to date. I was definately expecting worse today....but I have not paid any attention to the markets since this morning. After about 10:00AM I could tell that the news was overwhelming the markets and it would be a lost day.
HERE is the market today.....yes, nothing new to see here. Stocks sink, yields tumble, oil prices steady https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-april-4-2023-120152032.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks sank and oil prices held steady Tuesday as new data showed fresh signs of labor market cooling and declining factory orders from businesses. The S&P 500 (^GSPC)declined nearly 0.6%,and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped around the same amount. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)slid 0.5%. Oil prices steadied, with WTI crude oil — the U.S. benchmark — wavering around $80 a barrel. After big gains Monday, oil was back in its four-month trading range after OPEC+ announced it would slash output by 1.16 million barrels per day. On the economic front, vacancies at U.S. employers fell to 9.93 million from 10.5 million, a bigger fall than expected. On the other hand, quits were up and layoffs were down, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Separately, factory orders fell 0.3%, also lower than anticipated. Some economists view the slowdown in the number of open job positions as "progress" to reaching the Fed's goal of an equilibrium between supply and demand in the labor market. "While the Fed will welcome the softening in the data, officials will put much more stock in Friday's employment report and will continue to raise rates at the coming meetings to ensure further progress is made toward softer labor market conditions and lower inflation," Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. As Martin noted, another data print on which Wall Street will be keeping a close eye is Friday's jobs report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show 240,000 jobs created last month. This would be lower than the average job gains of 343,000 over the last six months. Bond yields moved downward after the data prints. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped to 3.35% Tuesday. Tuesday's moves came after the Dow rose and the S&P 500 closed up 0.4% on Monday but the Nasdaq 100 lagged, falling 0.3%. Bond yields were down as manufacturing activity slumped to the lowest level since May 2020, signaling further declines could be coming as credit conditions tighten. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Monday that the continued strength in the labor market gives the Fed room to fight inflation. Bullard also commented on OPEC’s decision to cut output, suggesting it could potentially make the Fed’s job of lowering inflation more challenging as oil prices increase. Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook also highlighted the continued tightness in the labor market. "We are still going to see inflation from that, but we’ve seen wage gains moderating quite a bit," she said. Still, the Federal Reserve has stuck with inflation as its top concern, even amid the recent banking turmoil that has shown signs of easing. “The Fed rate expected for the next meeting was largely flat against this backdrop, climbing a modest 1.6 basis points to 4.973% with a 63% chance priced in for a 25 basis-point hike next month,” Jim Reid and colleagues at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note to clients. However, the recent banking troubles triggered by the failures at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are “not over yet,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday. In his closely watched annual letter to shareholders, Dimon outlined the damages of financial system turmoil on all banks and urged lawmakers to not “overreact” with more regulation. Elsewhere, Credit Suisse chairman Axel Lehmann apologized for the bank’s failure to save the institution as the firm had been draining deposits for months. Meanwhile, under the current backdrop, the rally in equities will likely waver given the recent bank failures. The oil surprise and a slowdown in growth could send stocks back to their low levels seen in 2022, said JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic. In single-stock moves, shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) plunged Tuesday after a settlement would allow AMC to convert APE preferred shares into common AMC stock. And Disney’s feud with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis escalated. CEO Bob Iger called the governor’s retaliation “anti-business” and “anti-Florida.” Shares of Disney (DIS) ticked down Tuesday. Shares of Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc. (VORB) sank after the company filed for bankruptcy late Monday after laying off about 85% of its staff in March. C3.ai, Inc. (AI)shares fell about 26% Tuesday after Kerrisdale Capital, a firm that holds a short position in AI stock, said it has sent a letter to the software maker's auditor." MY COMMENT GOOD for the markets over the short term.....the nice drop in the Ten Year Treasury today to 3.35%. Also good....the economic data that came out today. DO NOT believe anything you see about a FED pause or even a drop in rates. I have NO DOUBT that we are looking at 1 or 2 more rate hikes. I TOTALLY expect that we will see a hike of 0.25% in May.
