I'm up about 5% overall since December 31st. Looks like the SP500 is up about 7%-8%, but at this point, I am pretty heavy into defensive positions. Not trying to beat the SP500; trying to keep from taking any significant losses while maximizing safe returns.
Small caps are lagging this morning. They are more weighted toward banks than the other major indexes. They're going to need to hold support this month, or a death cross is looming there.
Yeah, not much progress showing up so far. And they previously thought they could do 4 cuts next year, but now think they can only do 3. Assuming their optimism is correct, we are near the end of the rate hiking cycle. Saw a nice graph today showing the SPX performance from the last 6 rate hike cycles. Only one had a recession within a year (2000). The last one in 2018 was volatile around the last hike. There's an orange line in there that shows the average. So...signs continue to point to a looming recession, but it could be ~2 years away still.
Yeah we will see. The economic data is starting to show some slowdown but the jobs market is still strong, oil prices going back up might not be a good news for the FED
Unexpected Weakness in ISM Services, Backlog and New Orders Plunge - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis The US economy finally might be slowing down, let's see if it will bring inflation down also
They got BFRG today. Down -54% since yesterday morning. Be interesting to see if NVDA really gets hit by this too.
Yeah I think NVDA ran up too much on the AI hype too, tech stocks probably are due for a pullback after a huge Q1
If you like ETFs, CANE (related to sugar) has been real hot lately. In other commodities...Orange Juice is really moving up, +100% since last year. And Lumber is bouncing from a triple bottom; some use this as a gauge for risk-on, so we'll see if it can pull out of its tailspin.
CANE continues its hot streak. Chinese 5G and Semiconductor index, KFVG, is flying today +5%. Something is brewing.
Thanks for mentioning those ETFs @anotherdevilsadvocate, didn't know those tickers before you mentioned them here but it will be something that I can pay attention to in the future I guess lithium prices aren't too hot lately, holding ALB and the stock keeps dropping
LIT and LITP are a couple of more major lithium plays, for those who believe that is perhaps the way of the future. Haven't bitten into LITP, but added a bit to my 'play money fund' with LIT.
Is the lithium drop a reaction to China looking to retaliate against the US for stopping transfer of advanced semiconductors? https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-contemplating-export-ban-on-rare-earth-magnets-nikkei edit to add: Sounds like China is willing to turn off lithium processing (eg electric car batteries) to retaliate aginst the US. https://themeghalayan.com/china-con...m supply,car industry, news agencies reported.
