Managing director at IMF just said the fed will continue to raise rates as long as core inflation is elevated. She sees more increases.
In any RATIONAL world the FED will do one more hike in May......and than pause for about a year. This will lessen the odds of a recession. They would not disclose that in the notes.....but would continue to JAW-DOWN the markets.....by pretending that more hikes were in the works..... and use the "expectation" of more rate hikes to help to drive inflation down further. If they do two more hikes they run the risk of SEVERELY OVERSHOOTING the tightening and causing a recession. More than two more hikes and they will simply drive the economy over a cliff and cause an extreme recession.
The markets just could not fight against the CPI and PPI data any longer. It was ridiculous that the markets were down yesterday.....but.....they have made up for it with 2-3 days of gains in one day today. The good gains today also make me wonder who has advance notice of the BIG BANK earnings that come out tomorrow. Although we all know that advance knowledge of earnings and/or economic data never happens......right?
A GREAT day in the markets today. I was BIG green today in my account. Nine of ten stocks were UP today....the sole loser was NVIDIA. I also got in a nice hefty beat on the SP500 today by 0.85%. I strongly believe in the POWER of positive reinforcement so I will CELEBRATE the positive today for my personal mental psychology.......I am now year to date at +16.8% in my entire account. This compares to about 7.99% for the SP500. I am currently at an account balance that I have not seen for many, many months.....back into 2022. BUT......I still have to gain about 24% more from here to get back to my all time high in this account. I like it.....still lots of room to run in the markets and in my account.
Here is how we did today. Stocks soar ahead of bank earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...rnings-stock-market-news-today-200245142.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rallied across the board on Thursday with tech leading markets higher and ether (ETH-USD) crossing $2,000 for the first time this year ahead of Friday's highly-anticipated bank earnings. When the closing bell rang on Thursday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was higher by 1.33%, theDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up 1.14%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 1.99%. The small cap Russell 2000 was also higher by more than 1.3% while gold prices were up 1.4% to trade as high as $2,050 an ounce. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) gained 1.3% to trade back above $30,000 alongside ethereum's rally to new 2023 highs. Thursday's rally in ethereum was attributed to the successful rollout of another upgrade to the ethereum blockchain. Crypto-exposed stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Block (SQ), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) were all higher on Thursday. The March read on producer prices out Thursday morning also showed some additional moderation in inflation pressures last month, news taken by investors as a potential sign the Federal Reserve may be closer to ending its rate-hiking campaign sooner than expected. Producer prices fell 0.5% in March and rose just 2.7% over the prior year. The BLS said in its release that two-thirds of the drop in producer prices were attributable to a 1% decline in prices for goods, largely driven by gas prices falling last month. On a "core" basis, which excludes the volatile costs of food and energy, producer prices rose 0.1% last month. Labor market data out Thursday morning also suggested the job market continues to soften, with initial filings for unemployment insurance totaling 239,000 for the week ended April 8, the highest since January 2022, according to the government's latest data. "Initial jobless claims rose last week, but the labor market stayed tight. We expect claims to trend higher through the rest of the year and peak in Q4 as the economy begins to emerge from a mild recession," wrote Oren Klachkin, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, in a note to clients on Thursday. "The upcoming labor market downturn will be modest since the drop in demand will be fairly modest and the labor pool will stay relatively small." On the earnings side, investors are bracing for Friday morning's rush of bank earnings with JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) each expected to report results........ etc, etc, etc. MY COMMENT I LOVE this little BULL MARKET. It is unloved and unappreciated......but......has been going on now for 9+ months. I hope the "experts" continue to say it is not happening. A typical stealth BULL MARKET that is happening right out there in plain sight. I also "love" how the financial writers and others are talking about the impact of the bank Crisis on bank earnings tomorrow. ACTUALLY.......the bank crisis happened ONLY three weeks ago......and at worst might have impacted bank earnings for ONLY 1-2 weeks at the very end of the quarter. BUT.....who am I to ruin a perfectly good fear mongering topic.
Looks like the FALLING Ten Year Treasury is "somewhat" impacting mortgage rates to help potential buyers. Mortgage rates drop slightly. Is it time to buy? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-drop-slightly-is-it-time-to-buy-160117289.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Mortgage rates declined, slightly, for the fifth consecutive week, easing homebuyers' borrowing costs just in time for the spring buying season. But one major problem remains - there is just not enough inventory on the market. And low supply continues to keep home prices elevated. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage had a minor dip to 6.27% from 6.28% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have been sliding since early March, declining nearly half a point since March 2nd. U.S. Inflation also eased last month, with consumer index price (CPI) recording just a 0.1% rise in March, a further decline of 0.5% rise in February; the current index showed an annual inflation increase of 5%, the lowest since May 2021. Although the drop in rates and cooling inflation help potential homebuyers, lack of inventory continues to be the most significant housing challenge. Sellers aren't motivated to list their properties. One reason: more than 85% of homeowners with mortgages with locked in rates below 5% and wouldn't be able to buy a new home with the same or lower rate elsewhere. In other words: buying a new property would mean getting new mortgage loans with rates over 6%. "With fewer homeowners putting homes up for sale, gains in the number of options for buyers have slowed." Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, said, "With both homebuyers and potential sellers feeling rather dour about the real estate market, especially with respect to the outlook for mortgage rates, the number of homes sold will continue to be lower than one year ago for the next few months" The bottom line A homebuyer who purchased a median-priced home of $386,797 with a 20% downpayment would pay an extra $791 in monthly mortgage compared to a year ago. The borrower would have the same principal balance but would be paying $1,617 a month with today’s rate at 6.27%, versus paying $825 with interest rate of 3.2% in January 2022. "Existing homeowners have a disincentive to sell because every dollar borrowed costs more," Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, previously told Yahoo Finance. "The financially rational decision is not to sell." One mortgage expert believe that sellers would have to see a significant change in the mortgage rates to jump ship, “If I have a 3% mortgage, trading to a 6.25% mortgage isn't all that attractive.” Keith Gumbinger, vice president of the mortgage website HSH.com, wrote, “If the leap is less, say to 4.5%, that might be more workable, and especially if I don't need to increase (or increase by much) the size of the mortgage I'll need to carry to make the move.” Market inventory increased 15.3% on a year-to-year basis to 980,000 units towards the end of February, and increased from 850,000 units compared to prior year. However, this level of activity is still at a ‘historical low’, according to the National Association of Realtors. There's currently a 2.6-month supply of homes; a robust market has a around 6-month supply." MY COMMENT They dont say so....but....lately when I have seen articles like this with mortgage rates......there are some points involved.....so the actual rate with ZERO points "might" be a little higher than is reported here. In any case......we are now solidly back into the HISTORIC normal range for 30 year home mortgages. For potential buyers....welcome to the real world. The rates in the 2-4% range were an EXTREME ABERRATION. I wonder how long it will take for the owners with rates in the 2-4% range to work their way out of the system? Perhaps at least 10-15 years to get a good number of them out of those homes. The impact of these owners with low rates REFUSING to sell.....is likely to keep inventory low for a long time......I am thinking at least 8-12 years. I base that on my memory that the average length of time someone owns a home before selling is about 7-9 years.
It appears the banks that reported this morning handily beat in earnings and reported well. There will be many more reporting next week along with other companies as earnings kicks off.
So much for all the DOOM&GLOOM. Big banks kick off earnings season with a bang First-quarter results from the nation's largest lenders demonstrated why they are better positioned than smaller rivals to withstand recent challenges https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-banks-kick-off-earnings-season-with-a-bang-110022672.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Four of the nation’s biggest banks said first quarter net income and revenue surged from a year ago, demonstrating the resiliency of the industry's giants amid the challenges that tested regional lenders in March. The nation's biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported a profit of $12.6 billion that was up 52% from the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue of $38.3 billion was up 25% from the year-ago period. Wells Fargo (WFC) earned $5 billion, Citigroup earned (C) $4.6 billion, and PNC (PNC) earned $1.7 billion. The results kicked off a closely-watched earnings season for the nation’s biggest banks. Banks of all sizes will be scrambling over the coming weeks to show investors how they are better positioned than rivals to weather any future turmoil. JPMorgan shares rose 6.2% at Friday's open following the earnings release. Wells was up 1.6%. Citi rose about 3%. PNC was down slightly for the same period. The giants of the industry weren’t totally immune from the chaos surrounding the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Deposits at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and PNC fell by 7%, 8% and 3% from a year ago, while Citigroup was roughly flat. JPMorgan and PNC deposits did rise slightly, however, compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. Even before the turmoil in March, lenders big and small had been losing depositors to money market funds that were willing to offer higher yields as the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates. The outflow of deposits from all of the nation’s banks reached nearly $500 billion last month through March 29, according to recent Fed data. JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters Friday that the bank took in $50 billion in deposits last month as some customers moved their money from regional lenders. Banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, because of their size and diversity of their businesses, are better positioned than smaller rivals to weather such periods of uncertainty. Regulators also require them to maintain greater buffers to absorb losses and demonstrate that it has enough liquidity to withstand unexpected economic turmoil. The rise in interest rates over the past year also benefitted some of these large banks, including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, because it allowed them to charge more for their loans. JPMorgan's net interest income was up 48% compared to the year-ago quarter, and it raised its net interest income expectation for all of 2023 to $81 billion. But those figures could drop going forward. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in a call with reporters that net interest income "will come down significantly next year and I think that's a more important statement than what it is for this year." Total loans were also up at JPMorgan, as well as for Wells Fargo and PNC. They were down slightly at Citigroup. Investors are looking for any signs that banks are making fewer new loans, which would affect the larger economy by reducing the flow of credit to businesses and consumers. Lending across the industry fell by nearly $105 billion during the two weeks ending March 29, according to the Fed, due mostly to a pullback by smaller institutions. One lending business has clearly slowed at JPMorgan: mortgages. There is not as much demand for new borrowings now that interest rates are much higher than they were a year ago. Home lending revenue was down 38%. JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters Friday that he isn't anticipating the bank will get more conservative on lending. "We didn't loosen underwriting standards when numbers were really good during the pandemic and we don't see ourselves particularly tightening them now," he said. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, however, are both preparing for the possibility that credit conditions could worsen. JPMorgan increased its provision for credit losses by 56% compared to a year ago, a sign that it expects more debt to go bad as the economy slows. Higher provisions at Wells included a $643 million increase in the allowance for credit losses on commercial real estate loans, as well as an increase for credit card and auto loans. The current challenge faced by the banking industry, Dimon said in a release, “is distinct” from the 2008 financial crisis “as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending.” His CFO told reporters that "it seems to me that the system as a whole is in very good shape. And we've had a rough spell in March but things were looking better now."" MY COMMENT DUH.....this is one of the SILLIEST things I have ever seen.....the media talking about the little mini-crisis in banking and how it might impact bank earnings. It only covered about ONE WEEK of the quarter. PATHETIC. In fact.....all the big banks will BENEFIT from the crisis. Actually it was NOT a crisis....it was the media freaking out over a niche bank that was run as a "toy" for the tech titans. I should not use the word "run"......no one was running that bank......they were too busy with other "stuff" to spend any time properly managing the bank. I guess everyone will now have to move on to another earnings topic to fear monger. It is just so typical and at the same time so funny to see this stuff happen time after time after time. Here is JP Morgan telling everyone that the topic we now see out there about a lending crisis is just......yes you guessed it.......more BS: "JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters Friday that he isn't anticipating the bank will get more conservative on lending. "We didn't loosen underwriting standards when numbers were really good during the pandemic and we don't see ourselves particularly tightening them now....."
Today is a TYPICAL day when the markets are DOWN over NOTHING. All the averages are down at the moment. This flies in the face of the CPI, PPI, bank earnings and most of the other news and events this week. It is simply IRRATIONAL. It flies in the face of the FED nearing the end of rate hikes. It is simply IRRATIONAL. It flies in the face of the past 8-9 months of a rising market for investors. It is simply IRRATIONAL That is the short term markets that are controlled by the professional traders. BEWARE of the short term......it is NOT a place for the average person. The short term markets are all a big game. They have NO connection to reality......and as a market weighing mechanism are usually WRONG.
I am SURE the markets today are being driven by two things. First.....the FED morons are out there blabbing as usual. Why people listen to them or pay any attention is beyond me. Second.....the Ten Year Treasury is nicely UP today at about 3.509%.
HERE is exactly what I mean above: Fed's Waller says inflation 'still much too high' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-waller-says-inflation-still-much-too-high-124553634.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said Friday the Fed hasn't made much progress bringing down inflation based on the latest data while reiterating the view the central bank's job isn't done yet. "Whether you measure inflation using the CPI or the Fed's preferred measure of personal consumption expenditures, it is still much too high and so my job is not done," Waller said in a speech at the Graybar National Training Conference in San Antonio, Texas. "Financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further," Waller added. How much more interest rates need to be raised will depend on incoming data and the extent to which credit conditions tighten. Waller said he wasn't encouraged much by the latest inflation reading from the Consumer Price Index, noting core inflation did not show much improvement and remains far above the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. "It was the fourth month in a row with core inflation at 0.4 percent or higher," he said. Data from the BLS out earlier this week showed core inflation as measured by the CPI rose 5.6% over the last year in March. Waller said stronger growth and job creation than expected has also been a surprise, in his view. "This growth would mean that, so far, tighter monetary policy and credit conditions are not doing much to restrain aggregate demand," he said. In March, the US economy added 236,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Over the last six months job gains have averaged 334,000 per month. When it comes to credit conditions, Waller said it's unclear to what extent stress in the banking system following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will dampen economic growth. "Perhaps even more closely than usual, I will be watching the data to evaluate the appropriate path of monetary policy," he said. "I say this because, all else equal, a significant tightening of credit conditions could obviate the need for some additional monetary policy tightening, but making such a judgement is difficult, especially in real time." In the past few weeks, Waller said deposit flows have stabilized across banks while usage of the Fed's discount window and lending program has moderated. Waller called SVB's failure a "classic bank run." "SVB seems to have done a terrible job managing its risks," Waller said. The Fed is expected to release a report on the failure of SVB by May 1." MY COMMENT These people are just CRAZY. Here a FED person is talking at a business conference.......why? This is not a proper forum for a FED member to be discussing this sort of "stuff". These people will run to any microphone.....any time. At the same time he is basically admitting that everything they have done over the past year was a total WASTE OF TIME. PLUS.....I notice that his remarks are all about......"I", "I", "I".......and "me", "me", "me". this person is DELUSIONAL and living in a fantasy world.
HERE is another one of our....financial saviors......today. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says recent reports show inflation is moving in the right direction https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/chi...flation-is-moving-in-the-right-direction.html Some of his thoughts: "the Federal Reserve’s job is not over yet" "...he noted there’s “clear stickiness” in some areas of pricing. And with current economic conditions, Goolsbee said the U.S. could experience a recession." "There’s no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the U.S. and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," "“The one thing that I think we’re spending too much time looking at is wage growth as an indicator of prices,” Goolsbee said. “There’s research out by two Chicago Fed researchers reflecting a longer tradition of research that shows wages do not serve as a leading indicator for price inflation. They’re a lagging indicator.”" "“So when people are looking at what’s happening to wages now, that’s more reflective of what happened to prices six months ago,” he added. “I think we want to keep our eye on the price series, not on the wage series." MY COMMENT More blather. So I guess all the focus on jobs and wages over the past year is now......"NEVER MIND". ( that is about all I have to say about this)
HERE is the....IRRATIONAL.....markets today. Dow falls as investors assess first-quarter earnings, retail sales data https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Friday as investors assessed a weak retail sales report, as well as stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. The 30-stock Dow dropped 189 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composit e slid 0.5%. Advanced retail sales data showed consumer spending fell twice as much as expected in March. Retail sales declined by 1% last month as consumers dealt with growing recession fears, more than the 0.5% fall expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. Meanwhile, major banks reported better-than-expected results in their first earnings season since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month. JPMorgan Chase reported record revenue that beat analyst expectations, with the stock rising more than 5%. Wells Fargo shares advances 0.6% after reporting growing profits. UnitedHealth, which has the biggest weighting in the Dow, fell 2% even after the firm posted better-than-expected results. Elsewhere, Boeing fell 6% after the aircraft maker warned of delivery delays for some of its 737 Max planes. Expectations for this earnings season are downbeat. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect S&P 500 earnings fell more than 5% in the first quarter. That forecast comes as companies deal with persistent inflation and higher rates. “The bar has never been set lower,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. “My guess is with consensus expectations for the S&P 500 to show earnings that are down some 5%, that may well be overstating what we actually find out.” “I think that what’s going to be super important is the kind of guidance we get, and how confident that corporations will be in guiding for the next three quarters in the face of what likely will be a slower economy.” Meanwhile, there are signs that inflationary pressures may be easing. The March producer price index, a measure of prices paid by companies, declined 0.5% from the prior month, even as economists polled by Dow Jones expected prices to stay the same. Excluding food and energy, the index shed 0.1% from the prior month, while economists estimated a 0.2% month-to-month increase. The PPI, which is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation, bolstered a trend of easing inflation seen in the March consumer price index report released Wednesday. Consumer prices grew 5% on an annual basis, which was the smallest year-over-year increase in nearly two years." MY COMMENT “My guess is with consensus expectations for the S&P 500 to show earnings that are down some 5%, that may well be overstating what we actually find out.”..........YOU THINK? Boeing is hammering the DOW today. That is the primary drag for that average today. It is such a narrow average with such a small number of companies......that a single company with a big drop is a HUGE drag down. EVERYTHING in terms of data and events is totally POSITIVE right now. BUT.....the markets are in a frenzy of obsessive self evaluation and whining wimpiness. ACTUALLY I love it. the more the markets have to climb a wall of worry.....the better the Bull Market will be.
Today is another extremely shallow days in the markets. Looking at my account I am showing a "moderate loss" today. I have only two stocks UP....GOOGL and HD. BUT.....I have another 4-5 companies with extremely MINOR losses......that depending on how the rest of the day works out "could" go positive. I actually think the markets got so wound up expecting some big drama from the banks earnings due to the little bank crisis......which only impacted about ONE WEEK of the quarter......that the markets are simply experiencing a hang-over from the expectations. Of course we are also seeing the markets react to the "expectation".....foolish in my view.....of a recession. The media and others have been hammering on the coming recession for about a year now. Of course...last year....when we actually did have a mild recession for a couple of quarters.....everyone refused to accept it as reality and simply choose to change the definition of a recession. NOW......even though it is extremely old news......suddenly everyone is crazy over the "coming recession". Although.....there is really no evidence of a recession at this time. Sounds about normal for how the markets operate now.....in the Social Media and internet age. FACTS dont matter....it is all about what the market INFLUENCERS are putting out there to generate their followers and clicks. I do see this as yet another aspect of modern society that over the long run.......10-20 years.....could actually destroy the markets. Another potential..... HUMPTY DUMPTY....danger.
A very moderate loss for me today. Earlier I thought there was a good chance for my account to improve from only two stocks UP for the day. it DID happen......at the end of the day i improved to FIVE STOCKS UP and five stocks down. PLUS....I got in a small beat on the SP500 today.....0.05%.....to end the day with a small win. All in all a nothing day today. The professionals were probably BUMMED OUT to see earnings start with a big bang.
All in all......another great week for the markets. It did not seem like it if you were following along day to day in the financial media......but at week end.....ALL the primary averages were UP for the week. The SP500.....my key average and in my view the BEST measure of the American economy and business world was up by a KILLER.......0.79%. A very good gain for just one week. DOW year to date +2.23% DOW for the week +1.20% SP500 year to date +7.77% SP500 for the week +0.70% NASDAQ 100 year to date +19.64% NASDAQ 100 for the week +0.17% NASDAQ year to date +15.83% NASDAQ for the week +0.29% RUSSELL year to date +1.13% RUSSELL for the week +1.52%
I am now going to start a little run of shows.....with the first being tomorrow. Over the next eight days we will be doing five shows in various locations. They range from about 200 miles to 150 miles to 50 miles. A good solid schedule for us to make some money. I will simply drive back and forth from each one.
Here is how we did this week. Stocks cap weekly gains, JPMorgan logs best day since 2020 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...organ-logs-best-day-since-2020-200347102.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks finished lower on Friday but logged weekly gains across the board while shares of JPMorgan (JPM) rallied more than 7% following a strong quarterly earnings report. At the closing bell on Friday the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was off 0.21%, theDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down 0.42%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.35%. All three major indexes finished the week with gains with the Dow rising more than 1% to pace the week's gains. JPMorgan (JPM) and Citi (C) saw shares higher on Friday while Wells Fargo (WFC) stock was little changed and PNC Financial (PNC) shares were under pressure after each bank reported results before the open on Friday. JPMorgan's 7.5% gain on Friday marked the stock's biggest one day rally since November 2020. Economic data also had markets moving on Friday with the preliminary look at consumer sentiment in April from the University of Michigan signaling an uptick in consumer inflation expectations, which investors took as a sign the Federal Reserve will need to remain vigilant in keeping interest rates elevated. Consumer expectations for price increases over the next year rose to 4.6% from 3.6% last month, the report showed. Stocks forfeited gains following these headlines and steady selling in the major indexes pushed stocks to session lows in early afternoon trade before an afternoon rebound. "These expectations have been seesawing for four consecutive months, alternating between increases and decreases," said Joanne Hsu, director for the survey of consumers. "Uncertainty over short-run inflation expectations continues to be notably elevated, indicating that the recent volatility in expected year-ahead inflation is likely to continue." Overall, the report showed sentiment was "essentially unchanged" in April, as the index stood at 63.5, up from 62 at the end of March. This data came about an hour after Fed Governor Chris Waller reiterated in a speech that inflation remains "much too high." Elsewhere on the economic calendar the monthly report on retail sales showed sales fell 1% in March while industrial production data came in better than expected. "Overall, [retail sales were] not quite as bad as we had expected," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. "Thanks to the strong January, first-quarter real consumption growth should be close to 4.5%, with GDP growth at 1.8%, which might be enough to persuade the Fed to hike by a final 25bp in early May." Banks results shine JPMorgan, the country's largest bank by assets, saw shares rise more than 7% after reporting top- and bottom-line results that surged from the prior year. Deposits, which will be closely tracked by investors this quarter following the failure of three US banks in March, rose 1.5% over the quarter at JPMorgan. Compared to the same period last year, however, deposits fell 7%. In the company's earnings release, CEO Jamie Dimon said, "the U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings—consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape. However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks." Wells Fargo also reported top- and bottom-line results that rose against the prior year, with revenues topping $20.7 billion in the first quarter. Consumer deposits fell 5% from the prior year while commercial banking deposits were off 15% from the first quarter of 2022. Wells Fargo reported its loans extended to commercial clients rose 15% from the same period last year. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said in a release, "We are glad to have been in a strong position to help support the U.S. financial system during the recent events that impacted the banking industry." Citi reported income and revenue that rose 7% and 12% from the prior year, respectively, while highlighting its deposits stood at $1.3 trillion at end of the quarter, "largely unchanged" from the prior year, the company said in its release. CEO Jane Fraser said the company's performance came "despite the tumultuous environment for banks." Elsewhere on the earnings side, BlackRock's (BLK) results showed the impact last year's market turmoil had on investors as the firm's average assets under management dipped below $9 trillion during the first quarter, down from $9.7 trillion in the same quarter last year. Revenue at the asset management giant also fell 10% from last year to $4.24 billion. "BlackRock is a source of both stability and optimism for clients," CEO Larry Fink said in a release. "We are helping clients navigate volatility and embed resiliency in their portfolios, while also providing insights on the longterm opportunities to be had in today's markets." Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, shares of UnitedHealthcare (UNH) fell more than 2% after the company reported results that topped estimates and raised its 2023 full-year outlook. Shares of Boeing (BA) weighed on the Dow as the stock fell more than 5% on Friday after the company announced it would halt deliveries for some 737 Max planes." MY COMMENT YES.....a nice week. that Consumer Sentiment Data......what a joke. As if sentiment on the part of consumers has any real impact on anything. It is just a glorified beauty contest. Looks like we are in for GDP of about 1.8%-2%....once it all sorts out. I still have ZERO doubt that we are looking at a rate hike of 0.25% in early May.
I am curious how anyone else on here is doing year to date. I am still siting well North of 16% YTD after today. Retail investors are sitting on heavy losses despite a 2023 stock rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...ses-despite-a-2023-stock-rally-134826847.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks have rebounded from a tough 2022, but retail traders are still feeling the pain. The average retail investor portfolio is down by about 27% since November 2021, according to data compiled by VandaTrack Research. Since then, stocks have staged four double-digit bear market rallies. Tech stocks in particular rallied more than 20% — twice. "As equities currently sit at similar bear-market-rally peaks, we suspect that retail investors will remain hesitant to raise their risk exposure as they got burned multiple times last year," analysts at VandaTrack wrote in a note on Thursday."In addition, growing recession risks could become a stronger headwind holding retail animal spirits at bay." Wall Street had a turbulent 2022, clocking in its worst year since the 2008 financial crisis while ending a three-year streak of gains. Inflation, rate hikes, and pandemic lockdowns in China plagued all financial assets last year. Stocks have rebounded in 2023, with the S&P 500 posting its best rally since last August, according to Morgan Stanley. However, it's unclear the good times are here to stay. As earnings season gets underway the S&P 500 is projected to post about a 7% decline in first-quarter earnings from a year ago, according to data from FactSet. Reports from tech companies will be critical as tech stocks have outperformed this year, pushing the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) into a bull market. Some prominent analysts have voiced concern that the rebound in tech could be running out of steam. Still, this group of traders remain concentrated in high-profile stocks like Apple (APPL), Tesla (TSLA), which account for about 30% of the average retail investors's portfolio, VandaTrack found, while Nvidia (NVDA), and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) account for 10% of their portfolio. From these stock picks, NVDA has had a notable rally, up 84% this year given the excitement around Chat GPT and AI engulfing the market. But VandaTrack strategists warn that earnings weakness from the four names could be a “heavy hit” to the individual investor." MY COMMENT NO....it is not realistic to expect that people would have ERASED the big loss from last year. this little article takes a negative slant on the.....FACT.....that the majority of retail investors probably have a nice gain so far this year. I see that the prediction is NOW for a 7% drop in first quarter earnings compared to last year. WELL.....we will see. Regardless of the NEGATIVE NANNIES.......yes.....we are in a BULL MARKET.
