I guess it depends on what your definition of IRRATIONALLY.......is. Are investors behaving irrationally? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/are-investors-behaving-irrationally-123527446.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The irrational trade has taken hold in markets. "We view the recent rally as irrational and believe it was mainly driven by systematic inflows and short covering, but these drivers are likely running out of steam," JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic wrote in a new client note. Kolanovic said he thinks the S&P 500 has at most 5% upside left in it in the near term, with downside risk at 15% or more if a recession forms later this year — as many Wall Street pros project. He believes investors should be raising their cash positions and allocating more to defensive fixed-income trades. The closely followed strategist looks correct to brand investors as behaving irrationally. The latest retail sales report was underwhelming for the second straight month. Sales were pressured across the board, specifically among higher-priced items like appliances. Consumer confidence has also weakened as inflation fears have ticked back up. Poor reads on the consumer have ratcheted back up recession calls, at the same time as the Federal Reserve still appears poised to deliver another rate increase at its early May meeting. March employment gains slowed month on month as layoffs at big tech companies such as Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) took their toll and companies hire more cautiously as the economy cools. All of this new economic data comes about a month removed from a banking crisis that led to busts for Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. UBS (UBS) has purchased rival Credit Suisse in an effort to prevent a financial system contagion event. Earnings out in the last week from JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) have shown more measured spending by consumers on debit and credit cards. How has the market responded to these apparent negatives to sales and profits for companies? As if everything was just A-OK in Corporate America and the economy. Last Friday, the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) — a.k.a. Wall Street's "fear gauge" — saw a new closing low for 2023 relative to the S&P 500. Year to date, the VIX has dropped 24%. The move in the VIX suggests investor complacency on risk. "Plenty of people look at VIX here as sort of almost 16 handle and say new bull market, right? We would actually take the other side of that," Kineo Capital managing partner Jim Strugger said on Yahoo Finance Live. As for individual stock moves, blind bullishness has been the name of the game for the often go-to risk-on trade known as FAANG (Facebook/Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google). Since March 1, Meta shares have climbed 27%, according to Yahoo Finance data — the top-performing FAANG component. The worst-performing FAANG component since March 1 has been Netflix (NFLX), with a still solid gain of 7% in its own right. On the year, the Nasdaq Composite is up 16%, the S&P 500 is up 8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has added just less than 9%. "Bottom line, sentiment matters in the near term, and extreme bearish sentiment following the banking failures has helped this stock rally continue. However, sentiment has improved substantially. So while we’re not yet at levels I’d consider a caution signal, we’re not very far away, either," said Sevens Report Reseach founder Tom Essaye. Strikes this writer as irrational behavior." MY COMMENT MORE.....BIZARRO WORLD. Lets take all the positives......and say they are really negative. Run for the hills....go to cash......my God......earnings are good so far, the averages are UP, sentiment has improved substantially, the VIX is killing it, etc, etc, etc. Things are so good....they must be bad. Much of the big picture data is coming in nicely.....just what the FED wants to see. Inflation continues to go down. Other indicators are moving in the right direction. The FED is just about done with hikes. RUN, RUN, RUN.......it is the end of the world as we know it.
I dont know why but the financial media seems to be on fire today with.......a weird reaction to good news. At least....it makes me laugh.
A perfect little article for my theme of the day. Scary economists and bad news The news cycle has swung back to recession talk, even as inflation is coming down and unemployment is at a 50-year low. Ask people what they've heard about the economy, and they'll tell you it's bad. https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/scary-economists-and-bad-news (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Yesterday at the farmers market, the merchant at a food stand started up a conversation with me after I had paid and was packing up my bag: Him: Oh, you are one of the scary ones: an economist. Me: Uh, I try not to be scary. [I was wearing a “Women in Economics” t-shirt.] Him: I keep hearing that a recession is coming from economists. That’s scary. Me: Yes, It’s possible. But look around at all the people here today. There’s no recession now. It could last. [Frankly, where I live, is largely immune to recessions.] I was surprised at the context but not by what he said. The night before, I posted a chart on Substack Notes about the pessimistic news people report in the Michigan Survey. And there it was, in person before me. The news we hear on the economy is grim. The Michigan Survey asks two questions about the news: During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? What did you hear? On average, 94% of people reported news that was unfavorable from February to early April. (More than one news item per person is possible.) At the same time, the unemployment rate averaged 3.5%—a fifty-year low—and inflation dropped to 5%—4 percentage points below its peak last summer. That’s a big disconnect, and it’s gotten worse. The negativity bias in the news heard is rising over time. The current level of unfavorable news reported in the survey is about the same as in the double-dip recessions of the early 1980s. At that time, on average, CPI inflation was 10%, and the unemployment rate was 8%. Ordinary people don’t follow the statistics. For most, Jobs Day is not a once-a-month 8:30 am data ritual; it is a get-up-at-8:30 am and go-to-work daily routine. People live the statistics. They talk with family and friends. They go to the farmers market and see how crowded it is. They turn on the TV, read the newspaper, or stare at their phones. Half the inflation and unemployment rate now relative to the early 1980s should lead to notably more upbeat reports of the news, but it does not. Why? More bad news than good news is likely due, at least in part, to psychology. Richard Curtin, who ran the Michigan survey for over forty years, argued in his book, Consumer Expectations, that the mismatch is due to how people absorb the news. Source: Consumer Expectations by Richard Curtin. But human nature alone can’t explain it since the disconnect has grown over time. Don’t blame this all on one news channel or politics. News reports from Democrats are more favorable than from Independents and Republicans, but unfavorable news dominates for all three groups. And there’s little evidence in the survey (the data are sparse) that the gaps have widened enough to explain the growing disconnect. And don’t blame the media entirely. They give their customers what they want. The brightest spot now is jobs, but it’s not the news. If we drill down and look at which specific news people report, the disconnect on labor market news is striking (and disheartening). Understandably, in recessions, hearing news about high unemployment is much more common than low unemployment. But that’s also true in recoveries and expansions. (The end of the expansion after the Great Recession and early in the recovery from the 1981-82 recession are exceptions.) For various reasons, people may remember bad news more than good news; however, it’s also the case that the news reports about the labor market are often bad now, despite its objectively great conditions. For example, Fed officials are critical of the booming labor market, saying it’s “extremely tight” and that there are too many job openings and wage growth is too high. They see the current conditions as unsustainable and a factor pushing up inflation. And then there are the economists who use the Phillips Curve with its simplistic, unstable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. It turns the good news about the labor market into bad news. And that’s what people hear. It matters. The disconnect between the economy and what people are hearing about it is not harmless. When consumers and businesses make decisions, they factor in, among many other things, their perceptions of today and their expectations about the future. How do they form those views? In addition to their own daily experiences, they look to the news. They look to experts, including economists, for advice on the economy. The endless bad news risks a self-fulfilling spiral. If a recession is coming, I might pull back on my spending or investment. Businesses won’t have many customers, so they lay off some workers. Those unemployed workers spend less. And on and on. Notably, we haven’t yet seen this dynamic take hold. The level of consumer sentiment has been in recession territory since late 2021, but no recession. It appears that the money in people's pockets and bills to pay is a stronger force than gloomy news about the economy to keep spending. But that gloomy news can endanger the progress in the economic recovery and millions of jobs, especially if consumers like the merchant at the farmers market heed the bad news and cut back dramatically. Keep it in perspective. Our economy has been upside down and backward since Covid crashed down on us. But not all the news is bad. It’s essential to maintain balance. See the good too. Congress swung for the fences to deliver relief in the pandemic and a strong labor market. It worked. So much is at stake now. Here’s me on NPR in July 2022: The Federal Reserve could put a quick end to inflation on its own, economist Claudia Sahm says, but be careful what you wish for. “I get it, inflation is a hardship.It's the hardship we're living with right now,” she said. “But for many families, a recession is a disaster.” I talk about the labor market in every interview on inflation and recession. Here’s my post explaining my base case now of a recession: The Fed will not cut. And there will be a recession starting in the second half … Nothing is carved in stone. There is a good path too: Abramowicz: Have you been surprised by how resilient the economic data has been up to this point? Me: I have been very thankful. The Fed is trying to get a slow path to get inflation down. No severe recession. That’s where the markets disagree with them. The only way the Fed gets that is if the consumers keep coming back and the jobs remain there. Even if it slows down, we are starting from a position of strength that has never been the case going into one of these cycles. In closing. I am not the “scary economist.” though I know several with massive platforms who are. They are often as lopsided in their gloom and doom as the responses in the survey. They may be right; maybe the only cure for inflation is a severe recession. I doubt it. The recession is not inevitable, even if it is becoming more likely. All policymakers must fight to keep us out of a recession—don’t default on the federal debt and pause the rate hikes. Policymakers other than the Fed must do more to reduce inflation, especially energy, food, and housing prices. A recession is scary, and it’s harmful. Only spinning out the bad scenarios can make matters worse, even if it sells." MY COMMENT One thing that all the scary headlines do is create volatility. Short term traders.....especially AI systems......LOVE volatility. Just like "plants crave electrolytes". (For the movie buffs out there......."Brawndo's got what plants crave. It's got electrolytes") Can you say......IDIOCRACY? Please.......long term investors......be smart. Ignore all the chaff. Be strong and be willing to be an island of one person in a sea of insanity. You have to have the GUTS to stick with your inherent instinct and do what you know is right....even if everyone around you is pushing you to go along with the insanity.
I just looked.....GASP. Well.....actually I am positive for the day right now.....in the green. I only have four of six stocks UP but that is enough to push me into the money so far today. Those winners are.....AAPL, COST, NVDA, and HD.
You know HERE is what I consider the BIG LIE of the investing world over the past 2-3 years. The constant repetition of the story line that the........BIG CAP MONSTER TECH COMPANIES......are interest rate sensitive and their share price should drop at every little squiggle in the Ten Year Treasury. I hear this repeated on TV and in the financial news nearly every day.........and......I call TOTAL BS. We are talking about the highest market cap companies in the world here. We are talking about companies with massive BILLIONS in cash. We are talking about companies that have a license to MINT MONEY. We are talking about the most successful companies in the world. There is NO WAY these companies are interest rate sensitive. This is the FALSEHOOD of the decade. Yet people just repeat it as a mantra. It has now become established fact......through sheer repetition. I consider it a case of financial mass psychosis. I am not sure most of the people that repeat this have even given it any thought. They just say it because everyone else does. AND.....because this BS has near universal acceptance.....it is often a self fulfilling prophesy.
Oh yes......the actual markets today. Stocks waver after BofA, Goldman Sachs earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-april-18-2023-115859987.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks wavered Tuesday amid another busy slate of corporate earnings, including from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. At the open, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.29%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid 0.13%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.61%. Government bonds were mixed. The yield on the 10-year note slid to 3.587%, while the 2-year note yields rose to 4.19% Tuesday morning. As earnings season kicks into full gear this week, the headliners Tuesday morning were the big banks. Bank of America (BAC) posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings results on the back of higher borrowing costs and rates. The stock edged up by nearly 1% at the open. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a miss on quarterly revenue estimates, hurt by a slowdown in deal making and offloading a chunk of its Marcus personal loan portfolio. The stock dropped over 3% Tuesday morning. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat first-quarter profit estimates on Tuesday, benefiting from rate hikes as it boosted the lender's interest income, which is the difference between what the bank earns on its loans and pays out on its deposits. Outside of financial institutions, Southwest Airlines' (LUV) stock fell 3% after the Federal Aviation Authority said in a tweet that the airline requested the agency pause its departures. Stocks closed higher on Monday, reversing earlier declines during the trading session as earnings season kicked into gear. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The biggest gainer was M&T Bank Corporation (MTB), up 7.8% after beating expectations on revenue and profit for the first quarter. The picture was different for State Street Corporation (STT), which was down over 9% after reporting a 3% decline in net interest income in the first quarter. More earnings are on deck this week. First Horizon (FHN), Western Alliance (WAL), United Airlines (UAL) and Netflix (NFLX) are due after the market closes on Tuesday. On the economic front, housing starts for single family homes fell 0.8% to a 1.42 million annualized rate, lower than the prior's month reading of 1.45 million homes. Permits to build, a forward-looking gauge for housing activity, fell 8.8% to an annualized rate of 1.41 million, down from last month's figure of 1.55 million homes. Separately, Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin, a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, said on Monday he wants “to see more evidence that inflation is settling back to our target” and that the “labor market has moved from red-hot to merely hot.” Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said in an interview on Tuesday that rate hikes will need to continue to reach the Fed's goal on inflation. Several Fed officials are expected to speak this week, and market participants are waiting to see if they will sound a similar tune ahead of Fed’s blackout period, which starts on Saturday. Investors are becoming increasingly skeptical that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, Treasuries sold off on Monday, with the 2-year yield climbing to 4.189%, marking its highest closing level in over a month. 10-year note yields actually rose as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy gave a speech on the debt ceiling at the New York Stock Exchange. “This growing optimism around the economy’s near-term performance means that investors are now almost fully pricing in another Fed rate hike at their meeting on May 3,” Jim Reid and colleagues at Deutsche Bank wrote in note to clients. Indeed, data from the CME Group show that markets have priced in a 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 0.25% in May. Here are some other trending tickers on Yahoo Finance: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): The pharmaceutical giant posted better-than-expected first-quarter revenue and earnings.The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings expectations to a range of $10.60 to $10.70 a share, from $10.45 to $10.65 previously. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Defense giant posted first-quarter results surpassing Wall Street estimates and reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting net sales in the range of about $65 billion to $66 billion and profits between $26.60 per share and $26.90 per share. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT): The company missed earnings expectations for the first quarter, lower compared to a year ago, citing effects of a “freight recession” in the brokerage unit. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Shares climbed Tuesday morning after a price target and ratings upgrade from analysts at HSBC, citing the chipmaker's opportunities in the AI space." MY COMMENT Looks pretty good......Yeah? NEVER-MIND......all the averages are now in the RED for the day. BUT.....the short term markets are extremely shallow today. There will be a good opportunity for a rally later in the day.....as we have seen a few times lately. AND.....actually......who cares. We are seeing more and more "stuff" line up in the positive column. The most important being that we are now "probably" within 1.2 rate hikes of the end for the FED. They are all out talking their little heads off.......but......I think it is simply jaw-boning. I still say only 1 and perhaps 2 more rate hikes....no matter how much they try to talk tough.
A good way to sum up the financial media and the news is they are going to provide a narrative regardless of any surrounding facts. They are going to run with it no matter what other information is out there. Scary things, divisive material, anything to stoke the belief that things are worse than they may be is served on a continual conveyor belt of BS. It drives revenue for them, but I believe it is more sinister than that at times. An investor needs to be cognizant of this drivel and realize it as they began their investing journey. In fact, I would seriously recommend avoiding most or all of it at this point. The majority of the information is worthless. I know that sounds harsh, but it has reached the point of biased, selective, unfounded, fortune telling. I read through an article a day or so ago. It began somewhat interesting, but then had the caveat buried within the story that the author could not verify any of the items he was being told by the people interviewed. Yet, the story went on to present itself as fact and fear of doom and gloom. It was like they had decided...this may be accurate, it may not...but to hell with it lets put it out there. I think this is why I often rail against some of these experts and pundits. Ignore the noise...they have a motive and it does not involve helping you out as an investor. If you notice, that is about all we hear nowadays...the worst. They just keep at it despite any evidence that might suggest otherwise. I suppose they will eventually be right. So yeah, take all of this noise and limit your intake and belief in most of it. If they knew all of this before, why would they have to preach about it now. Shouldn't they have seen any and all things coming? That is what they are portraying daily isn't it? Ignore the little trolls that they are. Invest reasonably, manage your plan with rational thinking, be consistent with your contributions and savings, budget the best you can for your family, and keep doing it.
So far the earnings have been holding their own. Actually, they have been pretty darn good. It is still very early for this part, but off to a good start. Maybe the rest will keep rolling along and do well. I like our chances of it as I stated earlier. Time will tell.
Case in point by the post made above. Part of the problem is we are inundated with information. Of course we have so many ways to access it compared to previous times in history. It is a curse and a blessing all at the same time. It is great to look up things and tips to save us money on fixing our cars, things around the house, researching particular items to purchase, and even shopping or ordering everyday items. Who hasn't scored points on being able to fix something that your spouse did not think you might be able to do or ordered that last minute gift??? LOL. We can mange and access our investment plans/accounts within seconds. Our laptop, our phone...it's all immediate access. Then when you factor in the instant availability of the media and the constant 24 hour barrage of "news" an investor can sometimes lose focus and coupled with the ability to react easily to the information....the motive to start tinkering can creep in. Stay focused and don't let a good thing work against you in regard to the emotions of investing. I actually think that is some of the reason we are often hit with this barrage of daily BS. They realize the information is no further than your pocket or in your hand.
I see now they are alleging that ChatGPT can decode FED speak and whether the comments are "hawkish" or "dovish." The comments being analyzed in determining rate hikes consisted of "Rock, Paper, Scissors." .
My stocks did nicely today....even though I had five UP and five DOWN. The make up of my holdings worked well in the market today. The five UP stocks were....AAPL, NKE, COST, NVDA, and HD. They got me a nice moderate gain today. They also got me a beat on the SP500 today by 0.26%.
HERE are some great thoughts to put into your brain.....now that the market day is over. Let them seep in overnight.....the power of subconscious learning. 8 Best Warren Buffett Quotes of All Time Listing Buffett's best quotes is like picking ice cream flavors from a wide selection – you really can't go wrong. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/8-best-warren-buffett-quotes-of-all-time (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) With Berkshire Hathaway's next annual shareholder meeting set for May 6 in Omaha, Nebraska, it's a good time to highlight Berkshire founder and legendary investor Warren Buffett's top quotes during his long reign on Wall Street. Buffett is known for his approachability and wisdom, which is on display during his usual hourslong question-and-answer sessions with the audience at the annual Omaha meeting. So kick back, crack a Diet Coke, play some ukulele background music on the Apple device of your choice, and review some of the best adages from the man many regard as the greatest investor in history. On making money. "The first rule of an investment is don't lose (money). And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are." This is the table-setter for all of Buffett's comments on investing. The 1985 quote, which sets the philosophical stage for everything that comes afterward, is Buffett's golden rule that capital preservation is the top priority for any investor. While Buffett has certainly backed his share of losing investments (former positions in ConocoPhillips (COP) and Tesco PLC come to mind), his track record certainly backs up the sentiment that the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio has stacked way more winners than losers. On being patient as an investor. "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." As a stock picker whose every portfolio selection is a headline maker, Buffett has long preached the importance of patience when building a solid stock portfolio. Taking the long view is as big a deal to Buffett as choosing the best stocks. On value. "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." Buffett is widely celebrated as the greatest value investor of all time – and with good reason. That's exactly why this 2008 quote resonates. Buffett has historically prioritized finding deeply discounted stocks of good (i.e., value) companies and hanging on to them for the long haul. If you can dig up good companies at a low price, you're Warren Buffett's kind of investor. On the jitters. "Fear is the most contagious disease you can imagine. It makes the virus look like a piker." Warren Buffett isn't shy about running into financial fires when others are rushing out, as he made clear in this quote from the 2020 Berkshire shareholder meeting. By using the term "contagious," the Sage of Omaha is coyly suggesting that following the herd is no way to fund the value-discounted companies that build great investment portfolios. Going where the herd fears to tread, on the other hand? That's a future Buffett bonanza. On believing in your investments. "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." In his 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett weighed in on the commitment and faith needed to succeed on Wall Street. By "buying a wonderful company at a fair price," Buffett is signaling that once you've done your homework and stepped up to the plate, stand firm knowing the company you're buying is worth your commitment – and your faith. On the proper times for fear and greed. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." In a 2008 interview with The New York Times, Buffett returns to his theme about fear and investing, and specifically, his firm stance on not following the herd. By encouraging investors to go their own way and not be deterred by temporary headlines, Buffett is laying out his vision for buying low and selling high. If you know your stuff, go ahead and buy when others aren't, and don't be afraid to sell when others are buying. On the worst kind of business. "The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money." Buffett wrote this in his 2007 shareholder letter. He is not a fan of companies that emphasize speed over slow and steady growth and that can't turn a profit – and he said the airline industry is loaded with them. Such companies won't make it into a Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. On betting against Uncle Sam. "It's never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it's not always a smooth ride." Buffett said the above line in a 2009 interview with NBC's Tom Brokaw, as the U.S. began climbing out of the Great Recession. The Oracle indicated that the U.S. will take its lumps but always gets up off the canvas ready to fight. Even in a more divided, post-pandemic America, Buffett has made comments publicly that reiterate his confidence in U.S. capitalism. "We love to complain about wherever we are," the 92-year-old told CNBC on April 12. "But the world has changed so much for the better in terms of how well off people are compared to any other time in history ... it's man's nature to be dissatisfied, and politics does stir that up."" MY COMMENT Simple, repeated often......yet....never out of style when it comes to investing success.
ACTUALLY.......I think that earnings have been GREAT so far this time around. We probably have about 10% to 15% of the reports in now. There have been lots of good BEATS......way more than expected so far. Reading between the lines of many articles I can see that the so called......"experts".....are confused by this. They are still hoping to be right about DREADFUL EARNINGS.....but they are starting to have doubts. This means that they will subtly change their prior statements and ease themselves right into reality.....for their clients. The next three weeks will pretty much decide the tone of earnings.
Good WB quotes above. One of my favorites to add: "Predicting rain doesn't count. Building the ark does." WB
This is how we ended today. Stocks waver after Fedspeak, BofA, Goldman Sachs earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-april-18-2023-115859987.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks wavered during Tuesday's trading session amid another busy slate of earnings from companies such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked up above the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped down below the flatline. Government bonds were mixed. The yield on the 10-year note slid to 3.579%, while the 2-year note yields rose to 4.218% Tuesday. As earnings season kicks into full gear this week, the headliners Tuesday morning were the big banks. Bank of America (BAC) posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings results on the back of higher borrowing costs and rates. The stock edged up 0.59% Tuesday. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a miss on quarterly revenue estimates, hurt by a slowdown in deal-making and offloading a chunk of its Marcus personal loan portfolio. The stock dropped over 3% Tuesday morning. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat first-quarter profit estimates on Tuesday, benefiting from rate hikes as it boosted the lender's interest income, which is the difference between what the bank earns on its loans and pays out on its deposits. Outside of financial institutions, Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock was off about 1% after the Federal Aviation Authority said in a tweet that the airline requested the agency pause its departures due to an internal technical issue at Southwest. The pause has been fully canceled, the FAA said. Stocks closed higher on Monday, reversing earlier declines during the trading session as earnings season kicked into gear. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The biggest gainer was M&T Bank Corporation (MTB), up 7.8% after beating expectations on revenue and profit for the first quarter. The picture was different for State Street Corporation (STT), which was down over 9% after reporting a 3% decline in net interest income in the first quarter. More earnings are on deck this week. First Horizon (FHN), Western Alliance (WAL), United Airlines (UAL) and Netflix (NFLX) are due after the market closes on Tuesday. Netflix shares edged up 0.29% ahead of earnings and after the company announced it would wind down its DVD-rental business. On the economic front, housing starts for single-family homes fell 0.8% to a 1.42 million annualized rate, lower than the prior's month reading of 1.45 million homes. Permits to build, a forward-looking gauge for housing activity, fell 8.8% to an annualized rate of 1.41 million, down from last month's figure of 1.55 million homes. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday he agrees with raising rates one more time before holding them above 5% for a while to reach the Fed's goal on inflation. Separately, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard striked a similar hawkish tone that rate hikes will need to continue. Meanwhile, Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin, a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, said on Monday he wants “to see more evidence that inflation is settling back to our target” and that the “labor market has moved from red-hot to merely hot.” Several Fed officials are expected to speak this week, and market participants are waiting to see if they will sound a similar tune ahead of the Fed’s blackout period, which starts on Saturday. Investors are becoming increasingly skeptical that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, Treasuries sold off on Monday, with the 2-year yield climbing to 4.189%, marking its highest closing level in over a month. 10-year note yields actually rose as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy gave a speech on the debt ceiling at the New York Stock Exchange. “This growing optimism around the economy’s near-term performance means that investors are now almost fully pricing in another Fed rate hike at their meeting on May 3,” Jim Reid and colleagues at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note to clients. Indeed, data from the CME Group show that markets have priced in an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 0.25% in May. Still, Bank of America noted that institutional and individual investors yanked out their positions in US equities for the straight third week amid a stock market rally. Here are some other trending tickers on Yahoo Finance: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): The pharmaceutical giant posted better-than-expected first-quarter revenue and earnings. The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings expectations to a range of $10.60 to $10.70 a share, from $10.45 to $10.65 previously. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): The defense giant posted first-quarter results surpassing Wall Street estimates and reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting net sales in the range of about $65 billion to $66 billion and profits between $26.60 per share and $26.90 per share. Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC): Teladoc said in a press release on Tuesday that it was launching provider-based care for its weight management and pre-diabetes programs. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT): The company missed earnings expectations for the first quarter, lower compared to a year ago, citing effects of a “freight recession” in the brokerage unit. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Shares climbed Tuesday morning after a price target and ratings upgrade from analysts at HSBC, citing the chipmaker's opportunities in the AI space. Elsewhere overseas, China's economy rebounded in the first three months of the year after ending its Covid restrictions in nearly three years. China's economy expanded 4.5% in the first quarter of the year, better than 4.0% pace expected by economists, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday." MY COMMENT The day was much more BORING than it sounds above. That has been the norm for a while now......short term. BUT....even though the markets feel to me like they are not doing much.....there has been a steady UPWARD move happening. Over the last month....the SP500 is UP by 5,14%.....that is a HUGE gain for one month. The STEALTH BULL MARKET is intact......in fact it has slipped even more into stealth mode. At the same time here is what has been happening with the SP500: March 23 - 3936 March 28 - 3971 March 31 - 4109 April 13 - 4146 April 18 - 4154
I find it astonishing how ignorant financial media presenters are. What's more, they frequently do their best to perpetrate their ignorance on knowledgeable guests. The talking heads on CNBC are borderline embarrassing but the majority of their guests seem pretty knowledgeable to me and regularly give some excellent advice. If you can tune out Joe Kernen, Andrew Sorkin, Jim Cramer, and the audio portion of Becky Quick, CNBC has some decent content that can be helpful to an investor. CNBC presents some decent content in spite of their presenters, not because of. Their staff seem to specialize in giving the wrong information and shouting down guests who present decent information. Just do the opposite of what CNBC suggests and you will be fine. That wasn't a joke.
You know I actually observed what you were referring to this morning, although it was another media outlet. A analyst/presenter was speaking about how the large cap banks have performed really well so far in earnings and went on to talk about how many had been wrong about that very issue. He also went into detail about how and why that occurred in a concise manner. The host anchor clearly wanted to push a more dire narrative. The presenter methodically defeated that position in short order. Once the anchor realized the presenter was not going along he basically cut him off and ended the segment. The anchor then continued with his own narrative with absolutely no basis for his position.
I have not observed much difference between media outlets. If there is one which distinguishes itself in a positive way, I would consider it a favor if someone would mention it by name. I feel that we are all on our own, we need to do our own research, and, most importantly, we need to carefully filter the information we take in be it from a digital source or a person stating their opinion.
Quite a few companies getting a nice boost and benefit from their good earnings report. Quite a few have beat the estimates rather handily and by a good margin. Still early, but we need this trend to hold and continue.
