The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is how we start the day today.

    Stock futures rise after Meta earnings add to tech strength

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...s-beat-stock-market-news-today-115516539.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock futures ticked higher on Thursday morning despite the release of cooler-than-expected economic data as earnings results from Meta (META) built on a strong week of tech earnings.

    Futures tied to the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.56%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 148 points, or 0.44%. Contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) were up 0.91%.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate of first quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at 1.1.% annual rate in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 1.9% growth.

    Meta shares soared more than 12% in pre-market trading on the heels of the company’s better-than-expected first-quarter earnings report following Wednesday’s close. Meta topped analyst expectations for revenue and earnings per share while also guiding for second-quarter revenue in a range of $29.5 billion to $32 billion. Analysts had been expecting $29.48 billion in second quarter revenue.

    Roku (ROKU) shares also traded higher into the market open as the company posted $741 million in revenue for the first quarter compared to analysts expectations of $708 million. The positive moves in tech into the open come after Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) topped expectations with reports after the market closed on Tuesday.

    Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) are expected to report earnings after the bell on Thursday.

    “The common theme here is that tech is stronger than most people think,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill told Yahoo Finance Live after Meta’s earnings release. “Yes, we’re fading, but things are a lot better than the bears have been expecting.”

    Meanwhile in the financial sector, pressure on First Republic is mounting as the stock plunged 29.75% on Wednesday. The bank is pursuing "strategic options," it said on Monday, after losing more than $100 billion in deposits during the March banking turmoil.

    Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares slumped more than 4% in pre-market trading as the airline reported a wider-than-expected loss in the first quarter due to a one-time charge owed after a cancellation fiasco in December.

    Investors are also digesting more economic data on Thursday morning. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose to 4.9%, 0.2% higher than analysts had been expecting, per Bloomberg. U.S. weekly jobless claims fell from the week prior to 230,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 248,000 claims. Pending home sales are also expected Thursday morning."

    MY COMMENT

    Looking good pre-market. Now lets see if the reality matches up with the preview. We are in the ten minute count-down to market open.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE are my HON earnings.

    Honeywell’s stock rises after sales beat estimates on aerospace strength

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3961158-honeywells-stock-rises-after-sales-rise-on-aerospace-strength

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON) rose in premarket trading after the industrial company’s Q1 sales rose more than estimated on the strength of its aerospace unit. Shares advanced 2.5% to $195.69 by 6:02 a.m. ET.

    Its profit rose 23% to $1.39 billion -- or $2.07 a share -- from $1.13 billion a year earlier. The average estimate among Wall Street analysts was $1.92 a share. Sales climbed 6% to $8.86 billion to the consensus estimate of $8.51 billion.

    [​IMG]

    Honeywell (HON) raised its sales guidance to a range of $36.5 billion to $37.3 billion from the previous range of $36 billion to $37 billion.

    "We are well-positioned to continue outperforming despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment," Darius Adamczyk, CEO of Honeywell, said in a statement
    . "Our continued focus on commercial excellence and productivity enabled us to remain ahead of the inflation."

    Aerospace sales advanced by 13% with the recovery in demand for air travel, while its performance materials and technologies segment’s sales rose 12%. Building technologies sales increased 4%. Its safety and productivity solutions business declined 13% from a year earlier."

    MY COMMENT

    I am still looking for a better report....but at the moment it is hard to find much. BUT....what I am seeing so far.....a CLEAR BEAT.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yep......a strong BEAT Smokie.

    Earnings are kicking ass across all industries.....CAT, ALTRIA, COMCAST, AMERICAN AIR, HARLEY.....etc, etc, etc. ALL coming in with nice earnings BEATS.

    I looked at my account a minute ago......I could not wait.....Eight stocks UP today, not unexpected.....and two DOWN. The DOWNERS are.....NKE and NVDA.

    Another random thought.....poor TSLA. Since Elon is no longer the media darling......the stock is constantly being blasted. This is even apparent with the recent SpaceX launch. I am seeing a big number of negative articles over the past few days about all the damage caused by the recent launch. That launch was a great success for an initial launch of the largest rocket ever........but....nothing lately but complaints about this and that. Without Elon the USA would not even have the ability to put a person into space. He is basically the US space program at this point. It is apparent that he will now be savaged for anything he does.

    For example:

    SpaceX Starship Grounded Indefinitely By FAA

    https://www.flyingmag.com/spacex-starship-grounded-indefinitely-by-faa/

    SpaceX Starship launch under FAA investigation after raining potentially hazardous debris on homes and beaches

    https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-faa-mishap-investigation

    SpaceX Starship explosion spread particulate matter for miles

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html

    SpaceX launch torched part of state park, sent debris flying, feds say

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/26/spacex-explosion-fire-debris/

    SpaceX’s Starship blew up after launch — it also caused ‘catastrophic’ damage on the ground

    https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/26/23699365/spacex-starship-damage-launch-pad-debris
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Going to be a very erratic housing market for a long time. The supply/demand side of housing is a BIG MESS.

    US pending home sales slump unexpectedly in March

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-pending-home-sales-slump-unexpectedly-march-2023-04-27/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "April 27 (Reuters) - Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes tumbled unexpectedly in March to snap a three-month rebound, raising a caution flag about what had appeared to be a nascent recovery in a housing market that has been clobbered by rising interest rates.

    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 5.2% last month to 78.9, the lowest since December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending sales to have increased 0.5% in March, but the reported decline was larger than even the most pessimistic estimate in the survey.

    "The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Multiple offers are still occurring on about a third of all listings, and 28% of homes are selling above list price. Limited housing supply is simply not meeting demand nationally."

    The housing market has been the sector of the economy most visibly affected by the Federal Reserve's aggressive run of interest rate increases aimed at bringing down inflation, but 2023 had begun with some indications the worst may have passed.

    That optimism was dented earlier this month when NAR reported that existing home sales slid 2.4% last month. While some firming has continued in the much-smaller market for new homes, the pending homes data suggests the market's overall recovery is likely to be choppy.

    Yun said sales should improve later in the year as he expects continued job growth and mortgage interest rates to fall to about 6% by year end from the current 6.55%.

    Contract signings were lower in the Northeast, Midwest and West, while the South saw a fractional gain."

    MY COMMENT

    The lack of inventory is killing the housing markets. The market is totally distorted. It is impossible to know what i would be like otherwise.
     
  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes...on the earnings.

    As to the Space X stuff....Did any of these agencies never consider this when the launch pad and all of this was being built? It's like they never thought about it. They had to approve all of the stuff I'm sure. They were simply thinking about all of the money and infrastructure, housing, and jobs he brought to the area.
     
  6. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Some GDP stuff....

    Below is the short version for what it's worth.

    • Gross domestic product rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, below the 2% estimate.
    • Slumping inventories and a general decline in private investment held back early year gains.
    • Inflation was higher than expected in the quarter, with the PCE price index rising 4.2% against the 3.7% estimate.
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    Molina Healthcare shares are trading higher after the company issued strong FY23 guidance.

    Apr 27, 2023 10:50a ET

    ----
    :banana:
    been spending more time working and less time posting. shareholders (of which i am one) can thank me later.
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    SpaceX have been jerks to the FAA but the FAA is clearly persecuting SpaceX. It's gone on for years. I don't have an opinion on which came first.

    But...

    Starship is grounded until the FAA does a complete investigation.

    Can you imagine? The FAA look, externally, to be complete buffoons. Somehow they are trying to exert authority over the Starship program?

    For those who possess even a rudimentary understand of the dynamics of the situation, the optics of it are terrible for the FAA in terms of immoral government control over private industry.

    If the FAA had the capability of designing a small rocket, nothing nearly as complex or ambitious as Starship, this wouldn't seem so autocratic but the FAA have no such experience or competence.
     
    WXYZ, emmett kelly and Smokie like this.
  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Darn it...I try to remember and put that one up for emmett.

    Molina Healthcare Reports First Quarter 2023 Financial Results (MOH)
     
    emmett kelly likes this.
  10. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Just being curious, I took a look at all the sectors.

    Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Utilities, Technology, Health, Industrials, Real Estate, Materials, Communication Services...all sectors in the green currently at the moment. Of course that could change, but at the moment it is a green sweep across the board.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just got back from the car. While I was driving I heard on business radio that the earnings as of today are just under.......drum roll please.......82% BEATS. This is way above normal.

    Besides the good earnings I am really liking the forward guidance. It has been strongly positive from most companies. This is a big indicator for investors that are long term.

    I also like the......AI stuff.....all over the news lately. It is ENERGIZING the tech companies.

    No one can predict this.....but......if anyone is in line to capitalize on this AI stuff it is the BIG CAP TECH companies. This could energize the tech industry for the coming years. And, as these companies use this tech for themselves they should be able to significantly reduce their work force and really get lean. At the same time it has the potential to lead to record profits.

    There are some really nice things happening right now, including the forward guidance, that have the potential to really benefit investors.
     
    #15312 WXYZ, Apr 27, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2023
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will say again......since I am fully invested all the time for the long term.....and do NOT ever try to time the markets......what I post on here about the short term topics.....like the potential for recession....is really IRRELEVANT to me as an investor.

    NONE of the short term stuff in here is relevant to me as a long term investor. BUT....I do like to challenge myself on being able to predict or "guess" what is going to happen short term. It makes things interesting......as my portfolio sits, and sits, day after day, with nothing being done.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Today the FLOOD of great earnings BEATS just could not be held back any longer.....the markets just took off Some really nice single day gains today.

    I was ten for ten today with my stocks ALL being in the GREEN. A big gain day for me today. In addition.....I beat the SP500 by 0.70% today.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the markets today.

    Dow and S&P post best day since January; Nasdaq climbs 2% as Big Tech rallies

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks rose Thursday, as strong results from Meta Platforms boosted tech-related names, and investors weighed the latest data on the U.S. economy.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 524.79 points, or 1.58%, putting it on pace for the best day since Jan. 6. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.4%, while the S&P 500 climbed 2%.

    Meta shares leapt more than 14% as the company reported quarterly revenue that beat expectations and issued an upbeat forecast. Several analysts hiked their price targets following the release. Shares of other tech-related names such as Amazon— which is slated to report after the bell — Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple, also popped.

    The market was waiting with bated breath for Big Tech,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Across the board, it hasn’t disappointed, and the market needed that.”

    Stocks rose despite a weaker-than-expected GDP data, which may suggest to some investors that the Federal Reserve could soon wrap up its tightening campaign. The Fed is slated announce its latest policy decision next week.

    The U.S. economy grew 1.1% in the first quarter, while economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted an expansion of 2%. The report also showed stronger-than-expected inflation, with prices increasing 4% compared with a consensus estimate of 3.7%.

    Honeywell, an industrial bellwether, popped more than 3% on the back of a quarterly report that was better than Wall Street expected. Teladoc and Comcast were among the other companies trading higher after releasing earnings reports.

    However, Caterpillar, another barometer of the global economy, fell nearly 1% as investors feared a build-up in inventory suggests demand is slowing."

    MY COMMENT

    NICE....but today is over. What I would really like to see is a strong....carry-over.....to the markets tomorrow to close out the week. Perhaps the AMZN earnings will be a catalyst for this to happen.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of Amazon:

    Amazon shares jump more than 10% on revenue beat

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/27/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2023.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Amazon shares jumped in extended trading after the e-retailer reported first-quarter revenue that topped analysts’ estimates.
    Amazon shares rose as much as 10% in extended trading on Thursday after the e-retailer reported first-quarter revenue that topped analysts’ estimates.

    • Earnings: 31 cents per share
    • Revenue: $127.4 billion vs $124.5 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
    Here’s how other key Amazon segments did during the quarter:
    • Amazon Web Services: $21.3 billion vs.$21.22 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
    • Advertising: $9.5 billion vs. $9.08 billion, according to StreetAccount

    It is not immediately clear if the reported earnings are comparable to the Refinitiv analyst estimate of 21 cents per share.

    For the second quarter, Amazon said revenue will be $127 billion to $133 billion. Analysts had called for sales of $129.8 billion, according to Refinitiv."

    MY COMMENT

    This is really skimpy and will be fleshed out.....but.....the response to what is out there right now is very positive. Looks like a BEAT.
     
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  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is more on AMAZON:

    Amazon earnings: Results beats expectations across the board, stock soars

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amaz...s-across-the-board-stock-soars-200717241.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Amazon (AMZN) reported first quarter earnings on Thursday that beat expectations and sent shares soaring in after hours trading.

    The e-commerce giant's stock popped 10% in after-hours trading as investors digested revenue, profits, margin, and guidance that all beat expectations. The company's efforts to rein in costs, which cost the company about $500 million in the first quarter, are expected to be a central focus on the company's earnings call Thursday evening.

    Here are the most important numbers from Amazon's report, compared to analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

    Net sales: $127.36 actual versus $124.7 billion estimated

    EPS: 31 cents actual versus 20 cents estimated

    AWS net sales: $21.35 billion actual versus $21.03 billion estimated

    Operating margin: 3.7% actual versus 2.38% estimated

    Q2 net sales guidance: $127-133 billion actual versus $130.1 billion estimated


    MY COMMENT

    This rounds out a BIG week for four of my holdings. They all got in good earnings BEATS. A nice finish to the week for my four stocks that reported this week.......MSFT, GOOGL, HON, and AMZN.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOW......if we can get the FED to cooperate in early May.....with only ONE rate hike and the announcement of a long pause.......we could be in for an EPIC RALLY.

    Of course.....we will still have to withstand all the talk of a recession and the GDP being 1%.....along with the banking crisis as a lingering minor issue and who knows what else.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The EARNINGS RALLY today has propelled my year to date gain to.......+18.21%. The SP500 for comparison is at +7.71% year to date.

    I am going to be gnashing my teeth when I lose a big chunk of these gains in some random correction later this year.....BUT.....for now.....I am going to CELEBRATE. After last year any chance we get to celebrate....I say....take it.
     

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