HERE is more on the jobs report......can you say......what recession? Jobs report: April job reports shocks with 253,000 jobs created, unemployment falls https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-jobs-report-may-5-2023-215956320.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The April jobs report showed the US labor market remains robust with more than a quarter million new jobs added to the economy last month as the unemployment rate fell to match its lowest level since May 1969. The US economy added 253,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 3.4%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 185,000 last month while the unemployment was forecast to rise to 3.6%. Here are the key numbers from the report compared to estimates from Bloomberg: Nonfarm payrolls: +253,000 vs. +185,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.4% vs. 3.6% expected Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.4% vs. +4.2% expected Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 vs. 34.4 expected Friday's jobs report also showed wage growth remained stronger than forecast in April, with wages rising 4.4% over the prior year, an acceleration from the gains seen in March. Employment gains in March, however, were revised lower to show 165,000 jobs were created during the month, 71,000 fewer than previously reported. February's job gains were also revised lower — to 248,000 from 326,000 — making job growth over that two month stretch lower than previously reported by 149,000. With these revisions, job gains over the last six months have averaged 290,000. By industry, the largest gains in Friday's data were seen in education and healthcare services, which aded 77,000 workers last month. Business services employment rose by 41,000 in April, while leisure & hospitality jobs, which have been a huge driver of much of the labor market's rebound since the pandemic, increased by 31,000. As noted by Bloomberg's Alexandra Semenova, April marks the 13th-straight month reported job gains from the BLS came in higher than had been forecast by Wall Street economists. Friday's jobs report comes after the Federal Reserve voted this week to raise its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25%, bringing the fed funds rate above 5% for the first time since September 2007. In raising rates on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell said the labor market remains "very tight," but noted "there are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming back into better balance," pointing to an uptick in participation among prime age workers (or those 25-54), as well as moderating wage gains and a drop in job openings. "But overall," Powell added, "labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers."" MY COMMENT The real world economy seems to be booming....at lest in terms of jobs and hiring. The only asterisk to this whole report is the HUGE revisions to the past couple of months. I am not sure how accurate any of this data really is. BUT......overall......the economy seems just fine for the day to day American. Combine this with the earnings reports that are coming in much better than expectations and you have to ask......where is the recession?
Having SKIMMED about 50+ headlines so far......I notice that most of the coverage of the BANK CRISES and the small and regional banks has now disappeared. The few articles that i see.....about three out of fifty or more skimmed......are OLD. IT is an AMAZING turnaround in the news compared to yesterday and the day before. It is interesting....but not possible to link in a statistical fashion......that yesterday the government put out a warning to the short sellers about market manipulation and.....POOF......like magic......all the bank coverage disappears Do you believe in magic?.
The anticipated markets today.....but BEWARE......this is pre-market stuff. Stock futures rise as investors digest jobs data https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-5-2023-114123916.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stock futures rose Friday morning as investors digested the Labor Department's closely watched April jobs report, which showed the US labor market remains strong with more than 250,000 jobs added to the economy last month. The economic data caps off a busy week for investors, which saw the Federal Reserve once again raise interest rates by another 0.25% as key earnings from companies like Apple (AAPL), Starbucks, (SBUX) and Ford (F) came in mostly positive for the quarter. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.72%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 184 points, or 0.45%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was up 0.66% before the bell. The flight to traditional "safe haven" assets like gold (GC=F) eased slightly on Friday following heightened upheaval within the regional banking sector — about two months since the stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which trigged a ripple effect across the entire financial system. On Thursday, regional bank stocks including PacWest Bancorp (PACW), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), and Zions (ZION) all saw double-digit declines amid reports PacWest was seeking strategic options, including a potential sale or capital raise. That, coupled with the purchase of First Republic by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) still fresh in the minds of investors, contributed to heavy losses within the sector. However, those pressured stock moves reversed during Friday's early morning trading session, with PacWest, Western Alliance, and Zions seeing premarket gains of about 18%, 12%, and 8%, respectively. Gold prices were relatively flat, but still traded near record highs at $2,046.00 an ounce. WTI crude oil (CL=F) and Brent crude (BZ=F), which saw prices tumble in the wake of the Fed decision and other cost pressures like a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories, gained to trade around $70.38 and $74.29 a barrel, respectively. Investors continue to digest the Federal Reserve's rate hike decision earlier this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell did little to calm market jitters after he left the door open for more rate increases down the line. "A decision on a pause was not made today," Powell said during Wednesday's press conference, although he did note, "There's a sense that we're ... much closer to the end of this than the beginning." Friday's jobs report, particularly surrounding the strong pace of wage growth, will be a key factor when it comes to future Fed rate policy. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 253,000 in April with the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%. Average hourly earnings also topped expections, rising +4.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.2%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the U.S. economy to have added 185,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month with the unemployment rate ticking marginally higher to 3.6%. To compare, the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Friday's jobs data comes after weekly initial jobless claims surpassed expectations. According to the report, released on Thursday, 242,000 jobless claims were filed, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. Friday morning's top trending stocks Apple (APPL), a top trending ticker on Yahoo Finance, saw shares rise more than 2% on Friday after the company reported quarterly earnings that beat estimates on better-than-expected iPhone sales. Block (SQ) jumped another 3% after beating earnings on both the top and bottom lines. The company also boosted its full-year outlook as its popular Cash App payments platform continues to drive growth. Shopify (SHOP) traded relatively flat in premarket trading, after climbing nearly 24% on Thursday. The e-commerce company announced a massive strategic shift, revealing it will sell its logistics business and lay off 20% of its workforce. Carvana (CVNA) surged roughly 45% early Friday after losses narrowed and revenue topped estimates. The online used car retailer has been on a massive cost cutting campaign after a terrible 2022 for investors. DraftKings (DKNG) rose more than 11% in premarket trading on Friday following strong earnings. The company raised its 2023 revenue guidance, now expecting full-year revenue to easily surpass $3 billion for the first time. Lyft (LYFT) sank another 15% after reporting disappointing second-quarter guidance. It was the first earnings report since David Risher took over the CEO position from founder Logan Green in April. Paramount Global (PARA) bounced back slightly from its massive sell-off, rising just about 1%, after closing Thursday's session down a whopping 28%. The company, which missed earnings expectations on both the top and bottom lines, continues to battle advertising headwinds and greater losses within its streaming division. The media giant also updated its dividend policy, cutting its quarterly cash dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.24 a share. Similarly, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which reported earnings before the bell on Friday, sank 4% after earnings missed estimates. The media giant reversed streaming losses, saying it now expects its U.S. direct-to-consumer business to be profitable this year." MY COMMENT If a tree falls in the woods, and no one is there to hear it....etc, etc.....if you are old enough you know the quote. Reminds me of earnings.....If they are significantly beating expectations and the media IGNORES the story....did it happen? WELL......yes they did. It is money in the bank for later when the markets move back to reality from day to day fantasy. Over the medium to long term the great earnings we are seeing now will produce results for investors. The lesson for any investor.....enjoy the short term drama and soap opera.....but when it comes to your actual money.....IGNORE it all. GOOD NEWS.......is not newsworthy......in the investing world that currently exists. As always......"if it bleeds, it leads"
A nice little window on the future for the tech industry. Apple posts record quarter in India; analyst says Cook eyes market to be bigger than China https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/05/app...er-in-india-tim-cook-hails-tipping-point.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Apple brought in record revenue in India in the first quarter of the year, CEO Tim Cook said, as he touted the potential of what could become a key market for the tech giant. Investors have been focused on Apple’s potential in India after the tech giant recently ramped up its presence in the country. Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, estimates India accounts for just 3% of Apple’s revenue now but Cook is setting it up to be “bigger than China.” Apple brought in record revenue in India in the first quarter of the year, CEO Tim Cook said, as he touted the potential of what could become a key market for the tech giant in terms of iPhone sales and manufacturing. During Apple’s earnings call on Thursday, Cook said that Apple set a “quarterly record” for its India business and saw “very strong, double digits year-over-year” growth. Apple does not disclose its sales figures in India. In its fiscal second quarter, Apple reported total revenue of $94.84 billion. Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, told CNBC Thursday he estimates India accounts for just under 3% of Apple’s total revenue. Investors have been focused on Apple’s potential in India after the tech giant recently ramped up its presence by opening its first physical stores in the country last month. India’s smartphone market is dominated by low-cost Android phones, such as those offered by Samsung and Chinese players like Oppo and Xiaomi. But there is a growing middle class and consumers willing to spend more on expensive devices. Smartphones priced above $400 now account for 10% of the total volumes of handsets shipped versus 4% before the pandemic, according to Counterpoint Research. This category of smartphones accounts for 35% of total smartphone market revenue. Speaking of the opportunity that the India market presents, Cook said: “There are a lot of people coming into the middle class, and I really feel that India is at a tipping point, and it’s great to be there.” India’s population is set to overtake China’s and many of the dynamics including a growing middle class are playing out, Apple is excited about its prospects. Apple’s business in Greater China, which includes the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong, reported $17.81 billion in sales in the first quarter of the year, a decline in sales from the same period a year before. Munster of Deepwater Asset Management said Apple CEO Cook is “laying the ground work that India can be big or bigger than China.” “So all of your concerns, my concerns about China, at least on the demand side, they’re having a lot of success … in India. That’s a big deal because ... you got to find large markets to go after, and after a decade they’re finally making traction in India.” Munster was referring to concerns about a slowdown in China for Apple. Still some have cast doubt on the potential of the Indian market for Apple. Richard Windsor, founder of independent research firm Radio Free Mobile, pointed toward a difference of gross domestic product per capita between the two nations, a metric often used as a broad measure of average living standards. China’s GDP per capita is more than 5 times the size of India’s, according to the World Bank. “So while potentially lots of Indians would like to buy the iPhone, in terms of total numbers, in terms of the numbers that can actually afford it in India, it is probably going to be an awful lot less than China,” Windsor said. Apple’s strategy in India is beyond just selling hardware, however. The company is also looking to India to become a key manufacturing hub as it looks to reduce its reliance on China. Apple began assembling its flagship iPhone 14 in India last year — the first time that the company has produced its latest device in the country, so close to its initial launch. Piyush Goyal, India’s minister of commerce and industry, said in January that Apple is aiming to make 25% of all of its iPhones in India." MY COMMENT APPLE needs to make an all out push into India. By moving manufacturing into the country they can solidify their sales in the country. Building the economy will produce more and more consumers for their products. From a marketing standpoint they should establish their products as the....."aspirational, status symbol"......especially in the age group under age 40. China is the past and India is the future......for ALL the tech companies.
WELL.....we have now heard earnings from ALL the big cap tech companies except for NVDA. They will report on about May 24th. Based on what we have seen so far with earnings.......and considering all the media I have seen lately for NVDA.....I am thinking they will hit it out of the park. As an owner I would like to see that happen.....but.....I am not going to speculate with real money on that event. If you think back there was a lot of negativity in the chip companies over the past 3 months. Earnings for Intel were dismal......and.....AMD was mixed. If we do see mixed results out of NVDA it will represent the PAST......the near to medium term future for this company is brilliant.
About all we have to do is hang on for another three hours and we will finish the week with a barn-burner of a day. it was just a matter of time till this day happened.......this gain today has been pent-up for the past three days. I am GREEN across the board as of a few minutes ago. I am at this moment beating both the SP500 and more importantly the NASDAQ today.
I am STILL not seeing much negative about the banks today. The short sellers have all run for the hills. BUT.....I have no doubt that we will continue to see the banking crises.....story-line...raise it's ugly head once in a while over the coming weeks. "Story-line".....being the operative word since I am not sure this is a real issue compared to a short seller FRENZY.
I do agree with this view. Solid April US jobs report undermines case for Fed cut soon https://finance.yahoo.com/news/instant-view-us-payrolls-surged-125712114.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. employers boosted hiring in April while raising wages for workers, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for some time. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 253,000 jobs, the Labor Department's employment report showed on Friday, while March was revised lower to 165,000 jobs added from 236,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in March and average hourly earnings gained 0.5% after advancing 0.3% in March. COMMENTS: ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK "This labor market while slowing, is certainly not showing signs that we're anywhere close to entering a recession. That's good news." "We are of the belief that the Fed has completed their rate hikes, therefore, we can now view good economic data as being good for the market. We can remove the lens of 'what does this mean for monetary policy' and look at good news as being good news." ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF 50 PARK INVESTMENTS IN NEW YORK "The expectation (for NFP) had been slower because you had a lot of people are concerned about a possible recession in the near future." "And so far the data continues to show the US economy remains very strong. The market doesn't want the Fed to raise too much because then you have high inflation, but this number wasn't too strong." "Here's the first big data point we received since the Fed meeting and it shows us that the Fed is killing the situation where it's not forced to raise rates more aggressively, but it's not in a situation where it has to cut rates either more aggressively. ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN “It's definitely telling you that the job market is still hot. It’s a little bit concerning that the inflation number, the average hourly wages, that ticked up. To me it communicates two things. The Fed still has some work to do and the job market’s hot. So the 25 basis points that they raised this week was justified. It also tells me that maybe the Fed is this right in terms of they can cool some of the inflation pressures in other areas of the economy, knowing that it's not going to have a real big detrimental impact on the labor force.” “The market is excited that maybe the Fed is done raising interest rates and that they're actually going to cut later this year, while at the same time the Fed is telling you that that's not really what their position is. And we have these job numbers that are showing that there's still some work to do. “I just don't see an environment where the Fed is cutting interest rates later this year, other than inflation is rapidly declining, which means growth in the economy is rapidly declining. That’s unlikely to be positive for job growth in that environment. “The market’s interpretation of where Fed policy will be at the end of the year does not square with the numbers that we're getting or what the Fed has been telling us. PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK “It was a hotter than expected report, it certainly didn’t show any cooling in the labor market. Hourly earnings were a little higher than I was looking for.” “Bottom line, this is a strong report and shows that the labor market is resilient. It bails out the Fed for raising another quarter point. The weakening of the job market seems to have stalled.” “The puzzle is we don’t see layoffs showing up in the numbers, we’ve see layoffs all over the place but job creation is strong.” “We’re not seeing wages coming down. It’s still a market that shows that the employers are at the mercy of the employees.” RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY "I don't think it's really outside the realm of what's expected in the sense that it's been a very start-and-stop economy, and the monthly numbers have been a little inconsistent. So I think the real focus is on the inflation numbers, and what's happening with wage growth. There's always been a shortage of workers in a lot of industries, and what you're seeing is despite layoffs some of the open jobs are being filled." PETER ANDERSEN, FOUNDER, ANDERSEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BOSTON "It's a strong number and it will just simply add to the continuous confusion of analysts." "If it were just this metric in a vacuum, investors would cheer the results and the market would rally, however, it is presented to us against a very upsetting background of continued bank failures, speculation that more banks might fail, how will the Fed react to the recent new failures, so it's a complicated scenario." "We have one side of the ship that is saying we're headed for a recession, the other side, which is not as equally populated is saying that we are enjoying a recovery." "I think we are enjoying a recovery in spite of all the negative events that have happened this past week." BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN “The employment situation has gone from great to merely good. Directionally, that’s what the Fed has been hoping for, though the upswing in hourly earnings may raise a few eyebrows at the Fed. The revisions to previous months’ numbers were significant, so things weren’t as great as first reported. The index of aggregate weekly hours moved up a bit in April from March, but it had been on a downward trend. Manufacturing is stuck in the mud with only 45% of manufacturing industries posting job gains. Total private sector breadth of gains has fallen to 57.4%. It’s a slow slide into a shallow recession so far, but it’s a slide from a relatively good place.” STEVE RICK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CUNA MUTUAL GROUP, MADISON WISCONSIN (emailed) “It is encouraging to see a strong jobs report amid recession concerns, instability in the banking sector and ongoing layoffs. We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months. We expect the unemployment rate to remain below the natural rate of 4.5% in 2023. We will continue to pay particular attention to factors that could impact the jobs market, such as further interest rate hikes, continued volatility in banking, inflation and supply chain disruptions.” “We’re anticipating a mild downturn in the second half of 2023 as consumers’ spending slows. Last week’s first quarter GDP rate announcement was cooler than expected and evidence the economy is beginning to slow down. These factors could result in halted job growth in the next few months, but this month’s strong report indicates that interest rate hikes have yet to impact tight unemployment conditions.” MY COMMENT Sorry......I can finish this up now. Pretty good commentary above. Most of it is not real positive toward there being a recession. As to the lay-offs.....I think most of them have been strategic rather than forced. companies are trying to go lean with their work force to drive productivity and earnings numbers. Assuming that TWITTER survives......the fact that it can operate with 1000 employees.....when a few months ago it had 8000.....should be a big wake up call to the entire tech industry.
Yes, it is like a game of hot potato this week. With earnings, regional banks, FED, economic reports, and recession/no recession noise. Actually, a bit comical at times. The speed at which things are blown about is nonsense most of the time. Sometimes I envision this crowd of folks running about shouting, "Look over there, no over here, wait....What?....Back over there?...Yes!!!....Run, look at this!...Oh, this is the end!!..Wait, No it really isn't...Come on get over here...No, No....Go back...Get out of here!"
Good one Smokie. I see that thee markets are ON FIRE today. They have definately gotten stronger as the day has gone on. the way it is going some of us are going to be positive for the week and other not so much. Although i expect that most of the averages will be negative for the week. Lets see at the close. I have to go pack....for my upcoming road trip. Tonight we start out with a little 200 mile trip......get back about 3:00AM......get up tomorrow.......leave for an afternoon show at about 1:00PM in one city......drive to another for a 10:00PM show that night......get home about 1:30AM.....get up the next day (Sunday) about 5:30AM.....drive 700 miles....etc, etc, etc.....get up next Thursday morning and do 700 miles back home. Oh the glamour of it all. I should be able to post about the time of the close today. After that.......I might be out of touch till next Friday. Have a great week, next week everyone.
On the road again Just can't wait to get on the road again The life I love is making music with my friends And I can't wait to get on the road again On the road again Goin' places that I've never been Seein' things that I may never see again And I can't wait to get on the road again On the road again Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway We're the best of friends Insisting that the world keep turning our way And our way Is on the road again I just can't wait to get on the road again The life I love is makin' music with my friends And I can't wait to get on the road again
I got a big gain today. All ten stocks UP nicely. Plus a good beat on the SP500 by 0.64%. A killer end to the week.
Here is the week in review: DOW year to date +1.59% DOW for the week (-1.24%) SP500 year to date +7.73% SP500 for the week (-0.80%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +21.27% NASDAQ 100 for the week +0.11% NASDAQ year to date +16.90% NASDAQ for the week +0.07% RUSSELL year to date (-0.08%) RUSSELL for the week (-0.51%) For my entire account as of the close today........+19.03%......year to date.
After all the drama and UP and DOWN motion......I end the week at exactly the same YTD for my account that I had last week......19.03%. I will take it.
After last weeks media frenzy over FED, regional banks, earnings, and economic reports....our Monday seems a bit quiet on the financial media front. Fine by me. Looks like inflation data to be released on Wednesday (CPI). Thursday will be (PPI). It will garner some attention I'm sure. Earnings continue this week as well. From FactSet Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2023 (with 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 79% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
SP 500 4,138 (+0.05%) DJIA 33,618 (- 0.17%) NASDAQ 12,256 (+ 0.18 %) Overall a quiet day in the market for the most part.
We start out a bit like yesterday it appears. Looks like the debt ceiling topic is taking its turn in the media. We have seen this slowly perk up in recent weeks, but it has been overshadowed by all of the other noise. It is going to get its moment in the spotlight now it would appear. This is an issue that really never truly goes away, but is usually a "kick the can" down the road until some later date type of deal. Well, here we are again. Let the policymaker circus begin.
SP 500 4,119 (- 0.46%) DJIA 33,561 (- 0.17%) NASDAQ 12,179 (- 0.63%) Not much notable today. We move on as usual. Such is the life in long term investing. It involves a whole lot of doing nothing most of the time.
A look at inflation over the past few months. Date Value April 30, 2023 4.93% March 31, 2023 4.98% February 28, 2023 6.04% January 31, 2023 6.41% (https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate)
