If and when we get to the point of UBI, it will massively increase the gap between the rich and the poor, as well as decimate the middle class. There won't be as many "dirt poor" people, but opportunities for almost everyone who isn't already rich and powerful will greatly decrease. The vast number of people whose main income is UBI will never get to enjoy the things that many Americans today take for granted. The rich and powerful will consolidate their grip on ... everything! Government will become even more the tool of the rich and powerful to control the citizens and 'keep them in their place' than it is now- which is saying a lot. What's going to surprise a lot of people is that 'rich and powerful' is going to be a pretty high bar by then! Many people who think they have a lot of money and influence are going to be facing a nasty reality, and find themselves not much better off than the 'unwashed masses'. 1984 and Fahrenheit 451 look more like fairly accurate predictions than fiction, at this point.
For anyone that is fearful of the debt ceiling "stuff". Disregard the Debt-Ceiling Doomsayers There will be no default. https://www.city-journal.org/article/disregard-the-debt-ceiling-doomsayers (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Seldom has more nonsense found its way into print and pixels than in today’s discussion of the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has intimated that the constraints of the debt ceiling will lead to a default on Washington’s financial obligations, which will, in turn, unleash financial and economic chaos. Default would indeed create lots of financial and economic problems, but Yellen takes quite a leap to get from the debt ceiling to default. She knows better than to make such assertions, which is why she has dealt in intimations instead of reasoning. The United States has never defaulted on either the interest or the principal of its debt—not in the almost 235 years since the first Treasury secretary, Alexander Hamilton, put the nation’s finances in order. Yet it has hit the debt ceiling several times. Even if Washington faces a debt-ceiling constraint, it will easily avoid default and, accordingly, the chaos so glibly forecast in so many places. The primary consideration in this matter is also the most obvious. Washington may rely too much on borrowing, but that is not its only source of revenue. Taxes and fees, in fact, remain a more important source than debt. They support about 80 percent of all government spending. This revenue flow would remain at Washington’s disposal even facing a debt. Presumably, that flow of funds would allow the government to carry on with some 80 percent of its activities even if it could not issue a penny in new debt. Using the latest White House budget estimates, cash flow would amount to some $4.9 trillion, a tidy sum. If past debt-ceiling experience is any guide, Washington at the limit could reasonably continue with only this money flow. It would have to set spending priorities. One such priority would include the service of its financial obligations. Indeed, the Fourteenth Amendment’s insistence that the debt “shall not be questioned” would place such payments at the top of that priority list. That need should require some $665 billion of this cash according to the most recent White House estimates, leaving $4.2 trillion of the tax and fee revenue for other essential government services, such as Social Security and Medicare, law enforcement (including federal courts), paying the armed forces, and the like. National parks and monuments might close until Congress gets its act together and some government employees might face temporary furloughs, but there would be no default, nor the ensuing disaster that Yellen and others have conjured. True, the cost of debt service accounts only for the interest on the outstanding debt. Bonds will also mature and need refinancing. But even in this case, the debt ceiling would not present a problem. After all, every maturing bond would reduce the government’s outstanding debt, bringing the number below the ceiling and giving Washington room to issue new debt to pay off the holders of that maturing bond, which incidentally is Washington’s usual practice. The ceiling would constrain only adding to the existing level of debt. This simple arithmetic explains why the United States has never defaulted despite hitting the debt ceiling several times in the past—21 times, in fact, over the last 50 years. The time between hitting the debt ceiling and enacting the legislation to relieve the constraint varies from incident to incident. Sometimes, it is only a few hours, as in 1982 and 1984 under the Reagan administration. Sometimes the resolution time takes longer—18 days, for instance, in 1978 under Jimmy Carter, and 16 days under Barack Obama in 2013. The longest stretch was 34 days, between December 2018 and January 2019, during the Trump administration. But the nation never came near default. If the dispute on the debt ceiling dragged on too long, the Federal Reserve could ride to the rescue. Though it has never before had to do so, the Fed could simply forgive its $5.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury debt, almost a full year of federal spending. This would constitute a drastic move that would ultimately have inflationary effects, but it would stave off default in the interim. Considering that the House of Representatives has already passed a compromise proposal to allow a rise in the debt ceiling, and President Biden has at last shown a willingness to negotiate, the duration of the incident this time will likely be shorter than in many earlier experiences. The standoff will end, as in the past, when one side or the other realizes that it will take the political blame for the interruption in some government services. Then Congress will rush to a compromise. Even if that takes a while, the dreaded default will not occur." MY COMMENT EXACTLY. So in my lifetime.....over the past 50 years......we have hit the debt ceiling 21 times. We have NEVER defaulted. This stuff from Yellen and others is simply fear mongering on steroids. SHAME ON THEM.
Rayak. I obviously try to avoid politics, social, and cultural issues on here. I sit MUTE on many of these issues where I have very definite opinions. In general......I am EXTREMELY concerned for the future of the country and our society with where we are quickly heading. I dont see any chance to avoid what will come. I used the word "concerned" because I could not think of a better word. BUT.....in reality being a realist......I simply dont give a DAMN. It is a waste of time to worry about other people. At this point in my life my only concern is direct family and the future for direct family.
Last note in relation to a stock that I have always owned (although never liked no pun intended) and it’s relation to current trends - Facebook aka Meta, this will probably show people how the trends of the moment can kill or make a stock, 6 months ago everyone wrote that stock off and even speculated that it’s the end of the platform and an era - while admittedly I was not excited about the whole meta vision (nor am I now) the stock plunged to a 7 year low with major headlines touting it the end of an era and quickly replacing it with TikTok. Fast forward to now- 6 months later - and here we are with meta tying into the AI premise, 104% recovery and… lo and behold, a serious threat to its back then social media competitor TikTok. think about it… Six months! Six months and the entire playbook changes completely, flipped on its head. I think there’s a lot to learn from this, the least being - BUY META -But just reflect on how rapidly market trends shift and probably also - never write off a mega cap leader in a sector - any sector - because of latest fads
A KILLER gain or me today......EVERY stock in the green at the close. In addition....icing on the cake.....a big 0.91% beat on the SP500 today. The wind is behind us for tomorrow.....in terms of "probabilities"......another potential big gain day. We are seeing the impact of the earnings BEATS.....the end of the FED choking the markets down.......the final recovery from the shut-down......the disrespected nearly year long BULL MARKET.....etc, etc, etc. I had a hard day today as an investor......I got up........did some reading....watched some business TV.....vacuumed the house.....went out to lunch....went to HEB and bought some pound cake.....sat around waiting for the close. It is TOUGH being a long term investor.
What I want to know.......when will the "professionals and the financial media.....start to see the BULL MARKET?
The close today. S&P 500 jumps nearly 1% Thursday for highest close since August as traders hope for debt ceiling resolution https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite jumped on Thursday to notch their highest closing levels since August 2022 as Wall Street traders kept focused on debt ceiling negotiations. The major averages ticked higher into the end of the trading session, with the broad-market index adding 0.94% to end at 4,198.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 115.14 points, or 0.34%, to close at 33,535.91 after trading down for most of the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.51% to finish at 12,688.84. The day market a second consecutive positive session for the major averages. CNBC Thursday’s advance boosted weekly gains for the indexes. The Nasdaq has led the charge up, on pace to end the week 3.3% higher. The S&P 500 and Dow are poised to end the week up 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Thursday that he’s optimistic congressional negotiators could reach a deal in time for a House vote next week. “I see the path that we can come to an agreement,” McCarthy said. “And I think we have a structure now and everybody’s working hard, and I mean, we’re working two or three times a day, then going back getting more numbers.” His comments come with just two weeks until June 1, which is the earliest day the U.S. could default, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, said traders have been able to “look through” some of the drama surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations. “I think the debt ceiling is personally a lot of noise, but I think investors and even traders are having a hard time ignoring,” Kilburg said. “I have optimism on the market, but also optimism that we’re going to find a way to move forward. The U.S. government’s never truly going to walk away from their default.” Retail giant Walmart helped the market, adding 1.3% on the back of its strong financial report. The company beat Wall Street forecasts on both earnings per share and revenue in its first quarter and raised its expectations for full-year performance. But investors’ sentiment was reined in somewhat after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the latest economic data doesn’t argue for a pause in rate hikes yet. She noted the June policy decision will be based on inflation and employment data that hasn’t been released yet. “As financial markets have been obsessing about the state of debt ceiling negotiations, the airwaves have also hosted an onslaught of Fed speakers, who have seemingly been tasked with sending a message to the markets,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “The message, that the Fed, at this point, has no plans to cut rates this year, but now also introducing the possibility that another rate hike could be forthcoming at the June 13-14 meeting.”" MY COMMENT The last first......SCREW the FED. Go ahead....do a rate hike in June. EVERYONE knows that you are either done or nearly done.....you have no power anymore. NO ONE is paying any attention to the daily onslaught of FED MORONS out there blabbering this week. I am interested to see what is going to be fear mongered tomorrow......it is always something.
Just to throw a wet blanket on the recent party.....sooner or later we will have a correction this year. It is just part of the NORMAL market process. So....lets have fun....lets celebrate the gains.......but it is NOT a "new normal". It is the same old normal....same as always. The real lesson.....as usual......being a steady long term investor wins the race.
It is nice to see Zukodany, Rayak, roadtonowhere and rg7803.....posting lately. The more the better on here. ANYONE....regardless of investing style or experience is WELCOME to post on here any time. Just introduce yourself......and....post away.
I cant keep this stuff straight. So for anyone else trying to figure this stuff out....here you go: BABY BOOMERS 1946-1964 GENERATION X 1965-1980 MILLENNIALS 1981-1998 GENERATION Z 1999- 2012 GENERATION ALPHA 2013-2025
If our economy is to continue there needs to be widespread purchasers of goods and services. If UBI is only enough to keep people from the streets, then the economy will eventually grind to a halt. Somehow money needs to get into the hands of the average person so it can go back into the economy. I do not know the right answer, but when there are enough miserable people who feel screwed/left out, revolution is inevitable. That's one of the areas that I struggle with the concept of the stock market: it is the fiduciary responsibility for publicly traded companies to reap as much profit as possible for shareholders, but at the same time, this is hastening the need for these sobering discussions to happen. The world is speeding up both the good and bad.
I completely understand what you're saying - the challenges are real and huge changes are inevitable. I just hope that whatever "resolution" is eventually implemented will not further erode, corrupt and destroy the individual opportunity, freedom and and self-determination that is still left in the world. I don't hold out much hope for that, though, to be honest.
Tomorrow at the open, I’m adding more to my PLTR position, will likely make them a prominent component of my portfolio. I’ve been following them for awhile and owned them once in the past. I may regret it in the coming months but I am absolutely positive they will triple from where they are today in the coming short years. This company’s balance sheet is squeaky clean
The markets are not really motivating me today. I have been watching since the open. I can tell by the way the NASDAQ is going so far and the individual stocks that I have seen....that this is probably not a banner open for my stocks. At least since the open to now......there appears to be a little bit of positive movement for some of my companies. I am still VERY hopeful that we will see strengthening as the day progresses and a strong close later today. I cant really complain about today since we have had a very strong week....especially for the companies that I own.
Here is another article on SENTIMENT based indicators to go along with the one that I posted the other day. Today’s Dour Consumer Moods Don’t Foretell Their Future Actions https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...umer-moods-dont-foretell-their-future-actions (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Consumer sentiment surveys aren’t a roadmap of things to come. The University of Michigan (U-Mich) released the preliminary May results for its widely watched consumer sentiment survey last Friday. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the rampant handwringing over West Coast regional banks and the simmering debt ceiling standoff, the index fell to a six-month low. But today’s downbeat consumers don’t necessarily foreshadow things to come—as the U-Mich survey’s history illustrates. The U-Mich consumer sentiment index fell to 57.5 from April’s 63.5, below expectations and the weakest reading since last November. While moods have been broadly dour since February 2020 (during the first COVID lockdown and bear market), the survey responses also persistently exhibit a noticeable partisan divide—highlighting politics’ effect on people’s moods. For example, those who identified as Republican have consistently responded more negatively than those who identified as Democratic since November 2020, when Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the presidential election. (Exhibit 1) But regardless of party affiliation, U-Mich’s gauge has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Exhibit 1: U-Mich Consumer Sentiment Index Since 2018 Source: FactSet and the University of Michigan’s “Survey of Consumers,” as of 5/16/2023. Consumer Sentiment Index Level, headline and by political party, monthly, January 2018 – March 2023. March 2023 is the latest available for Consumer Index Level by political party. The survey also noted fears from prolonged recession to debt ceiling fallout weighing on respondents in May. Prices remain on people’s minds, too, as long-run (i.e., five-year) inflation expectations hit 3.2%, the highest since 2011. We aren’t surprised these topics color respondents’ outlooks. Americans have been grappling with challenging conditions for the past couple years, from elevated inflation and tragic geopolitical developments to financial sector troubles and nonstop political bickering. But from an investing perspective, it is critical to remember people’s views of the future aren’t predictive. One way to see this: those long-run inflation expectations. Go back to March 2011, when inflation expectations were as high as today’s. Then, rising gasoline prices were U-Mich survey respondents’ biggest gripe. US retail gas prices had been climbing from December 2008’s relative low of $1.75 a gallon, but price growth began accelerating in late 2010—climbing from $2.76 a gallon in September 2010 to $3.62 a gallon in March 2011. That jump fueled (sorry) fears that gas would get back to mid-2008 highs and stay there, rendering the earlier drop a short, recession-related aberration. With March headline inflation up to 2.6% y/y, U-Mich respondents’ five-year inflation outlook ticked up from February’s 2.9% to March’s 3.2%.[ii] Those expectations looked prescient in the short term as inflation broke through the 3.0% threshold the next month and remained there for the rest of the year (peaking in September at 3.8%). Gas prices also hit a relative high of $3.96 a gallon in May and stayed in the $3-range for the next three years. But consumer price growth ended up slowing over the next several years—and there was even a short bout of deflation in early 2015. (Exhibit 2) Five years from March 2011, the CPI inflation rate was just 0.9% y/y. Interestingly, the March 2011 five-year breakeven inflation rate—which reflects what market participants expect inflation to be in the next five years—was 2.2%, a full percentage point lower than U-Mich survey respondents’ prediction. Though 5-year Treasury investors’ outlook was closer to reality than consumers’, it was still well wide of the mark—a reminder the distant future is unknowable and that inflation expectations aren’t predictive. They are, at best, coincident. Exhibit 2: US CPI vs. Expectations Source: FactSet and St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of 5/16/2023. US CPI (year-over-year change), March 2011 – March 2021, 5-year expected inflation from University of Michigan’s “Survey of Consumers” for March 2011 and 5-year breakeven inflation rate as of March 31, 2011. Although the U-Mich survey doesn’t have many forward-looking takeaways, its findings are consistent with other sentiment gauges in America and abroad. For example, US IPO activity is at a post-pandemic low.[iii] Surges in IPOs may signal optimism turning into euphoria as businesses go public to take advantage of hot demand. We saw those conditions in the late 1990s and early 2000 and, to a lesser extent, in early 2021 (e.g., special-purpose acquisition company debuts). Likewise, a dearth of activity can indicate low demand—perhaps signaling pessimism’s prevalence. Elsewhere, Bank of America’s global fund manager survey found sentiment worsened in early May, with 65% of those polled anticipating further economic weakness.[iv] Overseas, Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back into negative territory for the first time since December 2022.[v] No one sentiment metric is all-telling, but when taken in aggregate, today’s measures suggest a majority are feeling down about the economy. For investors, the key question to ask is how these expectations align with economic reality. We see lots of signs the US and many other developed economies are muddling along. There are undoubtedly weak spots, but tepid growth is a far cry from recession—which policymakers in the UK and EU have recognized recently. In our view, the wall of worry bull markets climb is high, and we see more and more signs that is the situation today." MY COMMENT As a proponent of the current BULL MARKET.......I love to see this sort of stuff. It is the perfect contrary indicator. I love it when a bull market is disrespected and under the radar. That means there is probably long term staying power. I prefer to be hiding in the weeds.....all alone. When I am in the middle of the herd.....it makes me wonder if I am in the right place. Of course this is all academic since I dont do anything anyway. I am an armchair observer of the short and medium term markets......NOT......an actively trading participant.
Today is another NOTHING day in a NOTHING week. I like it that way. Stocks rise amid debt limit confidence https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-may-19-2023-120401938.html (BOLD is my opinion OR hat I consider important content) "Stocks rose Friday morning as investors eye updates in the ongoing debt ceiling debate and digest a better-than-feared first-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.20%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 13 points, or 0.04%, higher. Technology-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) rose 0.15%. Stocks have risen as the debt debate appears to be making progress in Washington. "I see the path that we could come through,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters on Thursday morning. He added: “It’d be important to try to have the agreement, especially in principle, by sometime this weekend.” The moves higher on Friday morning are an extension of week long gains, primarily led by big tech. On Thursday, Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) all finished at their highest levels in at least a year. Shares of Deere & Company (DE), the parent company of John Deere, rose 4% on Friday as the company upped its profit outlook for the fiscal year. The maker of tractors and other farming equipment beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings. "Deere continues to benefit from favorable market conditions and an improving operating environment,” Deere & Company CEO John C. May said in the company's earnings release. “Though supply-chain constraints continue to present a challenge, we are seeing further improvement.” Meanwhile, Foot Locker (FL) shares tanked 27% at the open, their biggest drop since February 2022, as the footwear retailer slashed its full-year guidance for earnings per share from a prior range of $3.35-$3.65 to a new range of $2.00-$2.25. The company also missed Wall Street's quarterly estimates for revenue and earnings per share while comparable sales declined 9% from the same period a year prior. "Our sales have since (March) softened meaningfully given the tough macroeconomic backdrop, causing us to reduce our guidance for the year as we take more aggressive markdowns to both drive demand and manage inventory," Foot Locker CEO Mary Dillon said in the company's earnings release. A quiet economic data day will be headlined by expected commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke at an event in Washington, D.C. Investors will be closely watching for any indications on the Fed's next interest rate move." MY COMMENT Today is as meaningless and light a day as I can remember in a long time. Nothing going on and nothing in the financial media. Earnings are GREAT......the debt ceiling is resolving........and there is no real issue or economic data to discuss. The only happening later in the day is some to the usual FED blather. I am starting to think there is perhaps a 50/50 chance of another 0.25% rate hike by the FED in early June. They might decide to top things off and try to put a final spike in inflation before pausing for the rest of the year. They are CERTAINLY NOT going to do any rate reductions this year.....contrary to the stuff you see floated all the time. If another hike happens......it will cause a market stir for a few days and then be forgotten.
As to another FED hike in June. Bank of America says markets 'underestimate' the Fed's next move https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank...derestimate-the-feds-next-move-090714676.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Markets are currently pricing in a pause in the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases next month. A move that will come before the central bank is forecast to cut rates twice before the end of 2023, according to market pricing. But a new report from rates strategists at Bank of America Global Research out Thursday suggested this pricing means one of two things — either the Fed's rate hikes aren't over yet, or cuts will be deeper than markets expect. "Historically, the market tends to underestimate actual Fed policy ahead of both hiking and cutting cycles: the market often prices too few rate cuts ahead of a cutting cycle and too few hikes ahead of a hiking cycle," BofA strategists led by Meghan Swiber wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. Many economists viewed Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on May 3 as indicating a "hawkish pause," or a lean toward pausing rate hikes while being closer to more hikes than rate cuts. "Looking ahead, we will take a data-dependent approach in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate," Powell said in prepared remarks during his press conference. Powell added in response to a question about the Fed's next move: "A decision on a pause was not made today." Economic data has largely broken in the Fed's favor since. Inflation rose at its slowest annual rate in two years in April and the latest jobs report showed evidence of a large enough cooling in the labor market for the Fed to pause future rate hikes, in the view of some economists. After the release of inflation data on on May 10, markets were pricing in a greater than 95% chance of the Fed pausing in June, according to data from the CME. But those projections have slowly ticked down as some members of the Federal Open Market Committee — which votes on Fed policy — offer their views on the economy ahead of the Fed's next policy announcement on June 14. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the FOMC, cast doubt on pausing the Fed's most aggressive rate hiking campaign in four decades. "After raising the target range for the federal funds rate at each of the last 10 FOMC meetings, we have made some progress," Logan told an audience in San Antonio. "The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet." Investors will closely listen to comments from Powell on Friday when he sits down with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke at an event in Washington, D.C. Data from the CME as of Thursday showed chances of a rate hike next month moved up to 36% from 28% following Logan's comments. Stocks largely appeared unbothered, however, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied more than 1% on Thursday. "These probabilities have not been right throughout this whole cycle," Invesco global market strategist Brian Levitt told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "So, it’s possible we could see another rate hike." Whether the Fed elects to raise or lower rates in the coming months, however, Bank of America simply notes the magnitude of this move is likely to surprise markets. "If the Fed does begin a cutting cycle later next year as our economists expect, the Fed may deliver more cuts than what is currently priced one year ahead," the firm wrote." MY COMMENT See my comment in the post above. I am going with 50/50 for a 0.25% hike in June.....perhaps even as much as 60/40 in favor of a final hike. The FED is basically done....stick a fork in it.....but that does not mean they will not do one more hike. So.....this stuff they are saying lately is either simply TRASH TALKING the markets.......or.....an indication of one more hike. We will find out in about three weeks. The prediction in this article is a little NO RISK prediction. You throw it out there and if you are right you are a HERO. If you are wrong.....no one cares.
One thing is sure....the economic data.....especially the various jobs data is STILL extremely distorted and untrustworthy. Jobless claims fall sharply after Massachusetts fraud inflated data Unemployment fraud in Massachusetts caused US jobless claims to spike in previous weeks https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-massachusetts-fraud-inflated-data MY COMMENT We have seen some really big corrections in some of the economic data lately months after the release. I dont see how anyone can trust any of this sort of data. AND.....as a long term investor in actual businesses.......I have no interest in considering general economic data in my investing strategy.
OK....I had to look. I am down by a medium amount today....as expected. The markets are waffling and trying to hold positive......but some of the averages are at risk of going red. For me at the moment it is a clear cut RED day. I have only three stocks in the green right now.....AAPL, GOOGL, and TSLA. I suspect that POWELL will tank the markets when he talks today. Not that anything he says will be actually meaningful. We have had a very good week but there is just a tendency for the markets to want an excuse to go down today.....at least that is my current....."feel".....for the markets today.
