I just looked at my account.....a single stock up at the moment.....MSFT. Exactly as expected and yet......somehow....STILL....at +32.55% gain year to date.
Yes!! The shame of it all. I should be frozen in fear and unable to be rational. I should heed all of the daily expert warnings and fortune tellers. This long term investing is just too difficult without their guidance. I should probably turn it all over to some financial firm, who will look out for my best interest.
On a serious note. As a long term investor you simply cannot allow yourself to get pulled into the vortex of negativity over time. You simply will not make it, if you do. You have to learn to manage it because it will always be there trying to nag at you and convince you to do dumb things with your plan.
The EXTREME PAIN continues for those that are trying to buy a house.....especially....first time buyers. As long time home owner I am not really impacted by this stuff. In conjunction with a 401K or other stock acccounts....owning a home is the GUTS of net worth for most people. Mortgage rates hit the highest point of the year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-hit-the-highest-point-of-the-year-160015951.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Home affordability took another hit this week as mortgage rates neared 7%, forcing many buyers to stick to the sidelines. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.81% from 6.71% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac, the highest level in 2023 and since November. Rates followed an uptick in the 10-year Treasury yield, after a government report released last week showed inflation remained sticky and minutes released this week from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting revealed a more hawkish stance toward future rate increases. The jump in rates has hurt housing activity this summer — dissuading homeowners from listing, keeping the inventory of homes for sale alarmingly low, and worsening purchasing conditions for buyers. “The increase in rates has stopped the market,” Luis Padilla, CEO of Oceanside Realty and Padilla Team in Miami, told Yahoo Finance. “People are only moving if they have to. That move-up buyer doesn’t want to sacrifice their low interest rate. It’s a segment of the market that’s pretty much gone.” Purchase demand hits low point this month As rates ticked higher last week, rate-sensitive buyers pulled back from their purchase plans once more – a recurring theme this year. Purchase applications decreased 5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 6, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey found, and was 22% lower than the same week a year ago. Overall, the volume of mortgage applications hit their lowest level in a month. The average loan size for a purchase application also declined to $423,500 for the week ending July 6, the MBA found, its lowest level since January 2023. “This was likely driven by reduced purchase activity in some high-price markets and more activity in some of the lower price tiers as buyers searched for more affordable options,” MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said in a statement. Just 45.6% of new and existing homes sold between January and the end of March were affordable to families earning an income of $96,300, a study by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Opportunity Index had revealed. While this is up from 38.1% in the year-end of 2022, it was still near the lowest level since the NAHB first began tracking the data. “Rates are still over a percentage point higher than a year ago, and housing affordability is still a challenge in many parts of the country,” Kan said. Inventory shrinks Rate-trapped homeowners have remained hesitant to list this summer, aggravating the market’s persistent inventory problem. As of the week ending July 5, there were 467,000 single-family US homes on the market nationwide. That’s down 2% from last year, according to Altos Research. By comparison, inventory was climbing between 4% and 6% per week during the same time in 2022. There were also 385,000 single-family homes in contract for the week ending July 5, about 14% fewer than last year at this time. Though the current sales pace seems to have peaked for the year, data indicates that this year will end with 15% less homes on the market compared with 2022. “At this point, people are mostly adjusted to higher mortgage rates.There are buyers at these home prices and these mortgage rates, but they are still sensitive to big changes in the rates,” Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research wrote in his blog. “If rates surge to 7.5% – as they did in September – then we’ll have a dramatically slower autumn again this year.” Simonsen added: “This recovery could very easily see another downturn.”" MY COMMENT The Ten Year yield today is not helping. AND....considering that we are.....PROBABLY.....looking at two more FED HIKES in a row......things are not looking too pretty for home buyers that require a mortgage.
YES......I said it above. My expectation.......at this moment.......is for two more FED hikes in a row. The FED has to prove their MACHO credentials. They are being challenged by the economy and they will of course OVERREACT.....like they always do. Unfortunately........in the twisted economic reality of today.......I dont think two more hikes will make any difference to the booming economy. There are now too many people and businesses with too much money and the power of the FED is limited. My view is the same as the economy.....SCREW THE FED. Yes.......frankly my dear.......I dont give a damn.
The sad tale of the markets today. Stocks slide as bets build for Fed hike in July https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...n-july-stock-market-news-today-181309676.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks tumbled on Thursday after strong labor data spurred fears around further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, reviving concerns about the impact of those hikes on the economy. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down about 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1.08%, or about 370 points. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.9%. All three major benchmarks logged losses Wednesday, after surprisingly hawkish minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed some policymakers were reluctant to back a pause as finally decided. Almost all backed more increases in 2023. Markets are now seeing an 95% chance of a hike at the Fed's July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, after fresh data reports Thursday signaled the US labor market is still robust. ADP private-sector payrolls came in well above estimates. Given stocks have previously faced headwinds from concerns the Fed's rate hikes could tip the economy into recession, the data will serve as an appetizer for the crucial June jobs report out on Friday." MY COMMENT YET.......still no sign of the cat and mouse RECESSION. YAWN.
A NICE CLOSE for me today on a down day. YES......I was still in the RED.....but.....my losses at the close were less than half what they were earlier in the day. I have not been paying any attention to the markets since late this morning.....but obviously stocks made a come-back in the degree of the losses. I DID beat the SP500 today by.....0.08%. I had two whole winners today.......tech monsters.....MSFT and AAPL. i will take this as a satisfactory finish to a down day. LAST DAY OF THE WEEK tomorrow......bring it on.
For those that are sweating over the FED....or.....just cant wait for the fun.......the July FED meeting will happen July 25 and 26. AND....if that is not exciting enough for you.....this should cause shivers, whatever it means: "June 14 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the central bank's next rate-setting meeting in July would be a "live" meeting after officials chose to forego a rate hike in June. Powell's remarks came after the Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate at 5.00% to 5.25%, but officials' forecasts showed they expect another half a percentage point of increases by year end." https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-powell-july-fomc-will-be-live-meeting-2023-06-14/
As to the "LIVE" FED meeting in July......they need to book a huge coliseum for the meeting. Set it up just like BIG TIME WRESTLING. Make it a battle between the good guys and the bad guys. Get some spiffy costumes designed with tights. Perhaps even do a Mexican Wrestling style masked FED event. Sell it on HBO with a live sold out audience, concessions, T-shirts, beer and hot dogs. They might be able to get Elon Musk and ZUK on the card for the preliminary bout. Come to think of it....reminds me of the scene in IDIOCRACY where the hero is fighting for his life in the arena.
We had the YIN.......the jobs report this morning. Here is the.....YANG. Job openings fall by half a million https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/job-openings-fall-by-half-a-million.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that listings in May fell to 9.82 million, down 496,000 from April and below the 9.9 million estimate. Quits, often an indication of a tight labor market where workers feel confident they can leave their current jobs for better opportunities, increased by 250,000. The ISM services index for June posted an unexpected increase to 53.9. There were about half a million fewer job openings in May than the previous month, providing at least a modest sign that the ultra-tight labor market could be loosening a bit, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that listings fell to 9.82 million, down 496,000 from April and below the 9.9 million consensus estimate from FactSet. Openings outnumbered the available labor pool by 1.6 to 1 for the month, a level that had been closer to 2 to 1 just a few months ago. The decline would have been even more had there not been an increase of some 61,000 in government-related positions. Openings tumbled in health care and social assistance (-285,000) as well as finance and insurance (-139,000). The report comes amid conflicting signs of where the labor market is heading. Earlier Thursday, payroll services firm ADP reported a stunning 497,000 new private sector jobs in June, more than double the 220,000 Dow Jones estimate. That report raised fears that the Federal Reserve would have to stay tough on inflation and continue to push up interest rates. In a speech Thursday morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she is concerned that inflation is not coming down rapidly enough and that more restrictive monetary policy will be necessary, particularly to address labor market imbalances. “Job openings remain far above the 2019 level. Layoffs remain low. There is no indication of an abrupt deterioration in labor market conditions,” Logan said in remarks delivered at Columbia University in New York. “The continuing outlook for above-target inflation and a stronger-than-expected labor market calls for more restrictive monetary policy,” she added. The JOLTS report showed a rise in the quits level, often an indication of a tight labor market where workers feel confident they can leave their current jobs for better opportunities. Quits increased by 250,000, taking the rate up to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point increase. Hires rose slightly while layoffs and discharges nudged lower. In a separate report Thursday morning, the ISM services index for June posted an unexpected increase to 53.9, representing the share of businesses that reported expansion. That was up from 50.3 in May and above the 51.3 estimate. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The employment index rose back into expansion, climbing 3.9 points to 53.1. However, the prices index fell back 2.1 points to 54.1. Business activity and production jumped to 59.2, an increase of 7.7 points." MY COMMENT This economic data is an unfathomable MESS. It is so screwed up that NO ONE has any clue what is happening or why. I suggest that anyone interested in the state of the economy skip all this GARBAGE.......and just start touring all the malls, stores, restaurants, and other businesses in your city or area to have some clue how the REAL economy is doing right now.
A very comprehensive look at the first half. 14 Charts On New Bull Market for Stocks, Mixed Returns for Bonds in Q2 A look back at the market’s second-quarter performance as investors wrestled with a changing outlook for the Fed. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/14-charts-new-bull-stocks-mixed-market-bonds-q2
The economic data of the day.....which no one really cares about.....even as they obsess over it. June jobs report: US economy added 209,000 jobs in June as labor market cools https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-jobs-report-july-7-2023-123312752.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, missing Wall Street estimates and reflecting a slowdown from the previous month, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected that 225,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in June. Friday's report marks the first time in 15 months that nonfarm payrolls have come in lower than Wall Street expected. Updated data revealed 306,000 jobs were created during May, about 33,000 less than previously reported. The June unemployment rate was 3.6%, down from 3.7% in May. Economists had expected 3.6%. Here are the key numbers compared to what Wall Street had been expecting, according to data from Bloomberg: Nonfarm payrolls: +209,000 vs. +225,000 Unemployment rate: 3.6% vs. 3.6% Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.4% vs. +0.3% Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.4% vs. +4.2% Average weekly hoursworked: +34.4 vs. +34.3 "Today's employment report offered additional evidence that the labor market is slowly coming into better balance as job growth slows and labor supply steadily expands," Wells Fargo senior economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese wrote in a note on Friday. "That said, job growth of +200K is still quite strong even if it is directionally slower than the scorching pace seen over the past year." Investors had been closely watching the jobs data for signs of what the Fed will do next in its campaign to raise interest rates to curb inflation. The market is widely expecting an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, which begins on July 25. Following a strong morning of economic releases Thursday and Friday's jobs report, futures tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate project a 95% chance that the Fed raises rates at the July meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Elsewhere in the report, April's job gains were also revised lower — to 217,000 from 294,000 — making job growth over that two-month stretch lower than previously reported by 110,000. By industry, the largest increases in Friday's data were seen in government, which added 60,000 jobs. In healthcare, 41,000 jobs were added last month, while 23,000 construction jobs were added. Professional and business services added 21,000 jobs. Employment in leisure hospitality ticked up by 21,000 but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Retail trade employment, which includes furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers, declined by 11,000 in June." MY COMMENT ANYONE relying on this stuff is CRAZY. One day the data is that the jobs market is too HOT. The next day it is COLD. At the same time the past two months of data is reduced SIGNIFICANTLY from what was initially reported. It is clear that this data is unreliable and screwed up. Garbage in garbage out for the FED since they are relying on this baloney to make their moves. What can you do as an investor......Just IGNORE it all.
I like this little article. A US Economic Snapshot at 2023’s Midway Point https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e.../a-us-economic-snapshot-at-2023s-midway-point (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Halfway into the year, US growth remains muddled—what does that mean for investors? America just celebrated its 247th birthday, and what better way to commemorate the event than by analyzing some economic data? The latest numbers, including widely watched personal consumption expenditures (PCE), suggest growth continues to muddle along. Yet the reaction—and emergence of new concerns about US economy—indicate pessimism remains prevalent. In our view, that is a bullish combination, as stocks have plenty of wall of worry to climb entering 2023’s second half. Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) PCE was flat month-over-month in May, a tad below estimates of 0.1% growth. On the prices front, the PCE price index decelerated to 3.8% y/y in May from April’s 4.3%, while core prices (which exclude food and energy) hit 4.6% y/y, down -0.1 percentage point from April. The headline deceleration met expectations while core prices slowed a bit (-0.1 percentage point) less than expected. Also last week, the Census Bureau announced durable goods orders—which aren’t adjusted for inflation—rose 1.7% m/m, well ahead of expectations of a -0.9% contraction. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (commonly known as core capital goods orders) ticked up 0.7%. The broad reaction to May’s figures was mixed: some optimism about the stronger-than-expected core capital goods orders—which many economists treat as a proxy for business investment—along with concerns of lost momentum in consumer spending. Similarly, though a few commentators cheered the deceleration in prices (the PCE price index’s slowest year-over-year pace since April 2021), most raised questions about the Fed’s potential reaction since prices remain well above the bank’s 2% annual inflation target. A deeper dive in the data reveals some interesting nuance, in our view. For example, services spending rose 0.2% m/m while goods spending contracted -0.4%, extending a longer-running trend of growth in the former and volatility in the latter. Exhibit 1: Services vs. Goods Spending Over the Past Two Years Source: FactSet, as of 7/3/2023. The May contraction in goods expenditures—and the -1.2% m/m dip in durable goods spending—seemingly contradicts growthy nominal durable goods orders. However, a look under the hood suggests one noisy subset is impacting the broader category: autos (-4.3% m/m in May). As we have discussed before, automobile output and spending have been volatile over the past several years—tied largely to COVID lockdowns. Consider, outside this area, nondurable goods spending has generally been more stable. (Exhibit 2) In our view, that suggests autos’ volatility is skewing the broader goods picture. Supply disruptions are a big issue there, so we think it is encouraging that the Census Bureau’s May advance report shows transportation equipment shipments rose 4.6% m/m—and motor vehicles shipments specifically were up 2.4% (its third-straight positive month). Exhibit 2: PCE Goods Spending by Category Source: FactSet, as of 7/3/2023. As for PCE inflation, an across-the-board slowdown continued in May. Goods prices decelerated to 1.1% y/y from April’s 2.1%, as both durable goods and nondurable goods prices slowed. Note, too, motor vehicles & parts prices rose 2.3% y/y, repeating April’s rate—a far cry from last year’s double-digit rates—and another sign supply pressures impacting autos are easing. Services prices ticked down from 5.5% y/y to 5.3%, in line with its range over the past 12 months. Now, though price growth is slowing, that doesn’t translate into falling prices—so households and businesses must still contend with above-average inflation rates (when compared to pre-pandemic years). But historically high inflation rates are cooling—a positive. Exhibit 3: US Prices Continue to Slow Source: FactSet, as of 7/3/2023. Admittedly, US economic conditions aren’t stellar, but that isn’t news to stocks, nor is it required. How the data relate to expectations matters far more. Today, many still expect recession to manifest at some point this year, including a majority of recently surveyed CFOs.[ii] New fears also gain traction rather easily, as evidenced by the chatter that the resumption of student loan repayments is a huge economic risk. Against that pessimistic backdrop, a mixed reality that is proving more resilient than almost any forecaster thought likely at this time last year is bull market fuel, in our view. When fears dominate the narrative, it doesn’t take much for meager positives to boost moods—and stocks. MY COMMENT The old WALL OR WORRY. In my views STILL a good general market indicator......especially during a bull market.
Early in the day......I am dead FLAT so far. Four stocks up....NVDA, AMZN, HD, and GOOGL. The rest down. Although many of my down stocks are not down by much. A confused start to the day by the markets.......as we continue to MUDDLE ALONG.
It really is to the point of information overload. There are so many released during a month the data gets lost within itself.
WELL.....we did good in the studio the other week. We now have six songs done....in terms of the basics. The front person still needs to do final vocals, guitar fills, etc, etc. At least for the rest of us, our job is done on those songs, except for perhaps some final little changes. Six down, four to go.
Looks like the market averages are trying to make a move to the UP side at this moment. The SP500 is now UP as is the NASDAQ. I dont see any RATIONAL REASON why the markets should not end in the green today.....excluding the DOW. Of course......"rational reason"......is not really relevant to the day to day markets. The day to day markets.....random and irrational. Driven mostly by the traders taking advantage of micro differences, AI trading, and volatility, to make their money....as well as the news of the day. BUT......over the long term.......I like to think the markets are RATIONAL and reflect FUNDAMENTAL DATA. TODAY will determine how we end the short market week. Up or down.....it has been a fairly mild week.
Looks like we are having a little market HISSY FIT to end the day....with a late day drop in all the averages.
I think I ended at my low of the day at the close. BUT....I really did not pay any attention through the mid-day time span. I had another MILD loss today. Plus a loss to the SP500 of......0.32%. A strange, muted day today, to end a pretty strange and worthless week.
