The Long Term Investor

I had to come back for one more quick post. I LOVE this description of the FED:

"The Fed is out to do damage now, having helped to institute, if not to have instituted this inflation," Grant said. "It's like a maniacal motorist, that runs over you with inflation, stops, looks in the rearview mirror, notices that you are still on the street twitching, and then throws it in reverse and gets you again."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...-rate-hike-experiment-unintended-consequences

 

I am DONE talking about and posting about NVDA....except for earnings.

NOW......I WANT TO SEE RESULTS FROM THEM.

 

RECESSION........WHAT RECESSION.

GDP: US economy grows at a faster pace than expected in Q2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-...aster-pace-than-expected-in-q2-124533676.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The US economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the second quarter of 2023, adding to signs that the threat of a recession has faded in the immediate term.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.4% during the period, faster than consensus forecasts.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had the U.S. economy growing at an annualized pace of 1.8% during the period.

The print came in higher than first quarter GDP, which was revised up to 2%.

Increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment led the growth of the economy in the second quarter, according to the BEA. Housing and utilities and health care led services spending. In goods spending, recreational goods, vehicles, and gasoline led the gains.

The GDP release comes as economists have pushed back recession forecasts amid strong economic data. In recent weeks, June's Consumer Price Index showed that inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two years while retail sales for the month signaled that consumers are still spending more than they did a month ago."

MY COMMENT

LOL......the "threat" of recession. I have NEVER seen any threat of recession.......only predictions of recession. A prediction does not translate into an actual threat.

We DID have a recession for two quarters last year......of course......all the experts refused to acknowledge it. It did not fit their narrative.

It is simple.....we are NOT going to have a recession this year. As to the future years.......yes there will be one some time.....but that is not relevant until it happens and we see how or why it impacts the economy. AND....that is simply part of the economic process.....not some disaster to fear monger.

 

A BIG open today. Will it have legs all the way to the close....I think so....but we will see later today. I will get my HON earnings today. In fact.......I will get it right now.

Honeywell posts better-than-expected profit on aviation boost, lifts forecast

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/honeywell-posts-better-expected-profit-115021227.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Industrial conglomerate Honeywell International Inc posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit and slightly raised its full-year forecasts on Thursday, on strong performance in its aviation business.

Honeywell's share price was down 3% in premarket trading on Thursday.

Aviation suppliers, such as Honeywell and General Electric, have gained from faster-than-expected rebound in air travel, which has driven demand for parts and services.

Sales at Honeywell's aerospace business, which counts Boeing and Airbus as customers, were up 16% on an organic basis in the second quarter.

Honeywell lifted the lower-end of its 2023 sales forecast by $200 million to $36.7 billion to $37.3 billion.

Full-year adjusted profit per share was bumped to $9.05 to $9.25 per share, from $9.00 to $9.25 forecast earlier.

The company also reported its second-quarter profit rose 17.9% to $1.49 billion. On an adjusted basis, profit was $2.23 per share, compared with expectations of $2.21 per share, as per Refinitiv data.

Quarterly sales rose about 2% to $9.15 billion, slightly below average analyst expectations of $9.17 billion."

MY COMMENT

Looks like a nice BEAT to me.....but of course.....the stock is down. Revenue was slightly below expectations......so the BOO-BIRDS will punish the company for a day or two.

I like conglomerate companies. The mix of business and revenue sources gives them staying power especially in bad times. I consider nearly all my stocks as conglomerates......AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL, NKE, HON......in particular. They all have many business segments that work for shareholders.

Over most of my investing life I have held and depended on CONSUMER CONGLOMERATE type companies as my core holdings. This is why I dont like one trick pony companies like.....banks, oil companies, drug companies, auto companies, etc, etc.

 

I dont see much talk about the FED today. BUMMER for their egos.

 

The.....obvious....open today.

Tech stocks lead gains as Meta rallies, Fed hopes rise

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech...s-rise-stock-market-news-today-105513976.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks opened strong Thursday as hopes built that the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates this year and techs got a boost from a rally in Meta (META) post-earnings.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1.3%, helped by a surge in the Facebook parent's shares after its second-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.8%, as investors braced for another heavy day of earnings. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up just 0.1%, as the index looks to extend its win streak to 14 sessions, which would be the longest in over a century.

The Fed's interest-rate rise on Wednesday didn't rock the boat, given it was widely expected. But one issue is still in focus: when another increase is coming. Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed hasn't made any decision on whether to hike in September — its next meeting — and some optimism is growing that could mean no more this year.

Economic data out later Thursday could drive stocks, given Powell stressed the central bank will watch that information to guide its policy making. Early Thursday, the government reported that GDP rose at a quicker pace than economists expected in the second quarter of the year.

Plus, there's another heavy day of quarterly results ahead, with McDonald's (MCD) reporting strong results. Other highlights are Mastercard (MA), Southwest (LUV), Ford (F), and Intel (INTC)."

MY COMMENT

YEP a very strong open.

Notice how you dont see as many of the experts talking about recession or bad earnings anymore. They have backed off in order to NOT draw attention to their FAILED predictions over the past....YEARS. YES.....years. They have been WRONG for many quarters now.....probably at least TEN.

 

I do like the META impact on the markets today.....even though I will NEVER own this company. They are a good example of a company that knows how to play up the AI theme in earnings.

They are another company that I would call a modern conglomerate......although some of their big segments do cannibalize each other. They appear to have totally abandoned.........The Metaverse.......at least in public. It is just way too embarrassing.

 

Any fear or concern about EARNINGS this time around appear to be over. They are coming in STRONG. This will be a lot of FUEL for the BULL MARKET.

It is also a good indicator that the economy and business will continue to be in......BOOM MODE..... for the rest of the year and into 2024.

I attribute most of this to the.....FINALLY.....end of the ridiculous pandemic disruptions. Big business is now back to normal and free of all the supply chain and logistic disruptions.

Added bonus.....we are now free of the FED. I assume we will now no longer have to suffer the incessant and ridiculous commentary in the financial media about the BIG CAP TECH companies being sensitive to minor interest rate increases.

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN........La, La, La.

 

The greatest current and future threat to the markets and investors is now.........cue Jaws music......the dreaded.....BLACK SWAN.

Nothing you or I can do about that. Things happen and they come out of nowhere. This is why it takes GUTS to be an investor. You need to be prepared to not panic and to ride out unexpected news events that create fear and panic.

 

I am siting and waiting for an auction lot to come up in about 1.5 hours. I am bidding for my sibling. They also collect art....although not to the extent that we do. This particular painting is a sleeper.......I expect that they will get a good price.

I was going to buy it myself and flip it......but....I decided to pass on the auction info to them......and let them have it.

 

We are now seeing the euphoria of the open start to slip a bit. Typical mid morning pull back....although we are STILL nicely positive today.

As to the broad picture......we are now entering the time when it will be IMPOSSIBLE for people to ignore the BULL MARKET.

Professionals will be doing window dressing to placate their clients asking why we are not more fully invested. Retail investors....that left stocks...... will be dipping their toe back into the markets. More and more short sellers will be forced to abandon their positions as stocks move higher.

I hope this process takes a long time and that the WALL OF WORRY is high. I want this BULL MARKET to last a long time. It is a good indicator that we are entering an election year soon....usually a positive time for stocks since politicians dont want to screw up the economy during an election......they will wait and do so after it is over.

In summary......we are seeing nearly EVERYTHING lining up for a really nice bull run right now. GREAT for investors....especially those that are long term.

YES.......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

NOTHING for me to do today and into the future......other than.....sit, watch, and ENJOY THE RIDE. Much more fun than siting and watching and riding out the previous BEAR MARKET.

It has been three years now since we have been in a NORMAL investing environment......2020, 2021, and 2022. A highly unusual time span mostly due to the pandemic drama.

We ENDURED the pain.....NOW.....it is time to ENDURE the gain.

 

I just did my quick morning look at my account. A nice gain.....as I continue to push toward a new all time high. Seven of ten stocks UP at the moment. The losers......I hate to emphasize the losers but the list is shorter and easier to type than the winners.....NKE, HON, and MSFT.

I expect that there is a good probability that MSFT and NKE will go positive if the day continues to boom.

I know there is probably some curiosity about my NVDA buy. My purchase that occurred on 7-25-23....with my TSLA proceeds is now up by........nearly 2%.....1.98%. Not that this means anything.....extremely short term and could disappear tomorrow.

I do STRONGLY reject the habit that many people have of waiting for an entry point to buy a company that they are interested in. I BELIEVE the academic research that buying.....all in.....when the funds are available will usually beat waiting and trying to time an entry point. I generally REFUSE to have money siting in cash and lingering. If I sell something I always have something to do with the money....in mind ahead of time. I want ALL stock market funds fully exposed to the markets ALL THE TIME.