I was of course in the RED today to end another worthless week for stocks and funds. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.25%. I had only three stocks UP today.....HON, HD, and AAPL.
Another SAD week as the markets just want to go down....even if there is no real reason. DOW year to date +4.08% DOW for the week (-2.21%) SP500 year to date +13.81% SP500 for the week (-2.11%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +34.49% NASDAQ 100 for the week (-2.22%) NASDAQ year to date +26.98% NASDAQ for the week (-2.59%) RUSSELL year to date +5.57% RUSSELL for the week (-3.41%) Looking at the major averages generally the smaller the CAP the worse they did. MYSELF......I ended the week for my entire portfolio at a year to date of.....+31.18%. Last Friday I was at.....+33.10%. A loss of 1.92% for the week. NVIDIA week next week.....although at this point I dont believe it will make much of a difference. I imagine some rating agency will but the USA credit rating on the same day.....or.....some FED moron will tank the markets with comments and wash out the positive NVDA earnings. That is how we are going right now. The FED is lucky to have the rating agencies driving up rates for them.
The market today to close out the week. Stocks crawl back to close rough week on mixed note https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...d-note-stock-market-news-today-200046956.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks recovered from steep early losses in Friday's session but ended the week with sharp drops as an August swoon continued for Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) finished slightly above the flatline, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell slightly on the other side of it. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was down a modest 0.2% lower after three consecutive days of sharp losses. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each saw losses of around 2%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell slightly Friday to around 4.25% but remained near recent highs. The moves come as investors consider the prospect that interest rates could remain higher for longer after Federal Reserve minutes this week showed the central bank wouldn't rule out further hikes. The next clue on the Fed's next move will come from Chair Jay Powell, who is set to give a speech next Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Also, investors considered continued economic woes in China, as embattled property developer Evergrande filed for bankruptcy in US court. Nvidia earnings highlight the week ahead Second quarter earnings season is winding down, but a few marquee reports remain outstanding and none are bigger than results from Nvidia (NVDA) due out after the close on Wednesday. In late May, Nvidia offered investors the highlight of the AI boom so far when they raised their current quarter revenue guidance by 50%. Ahead of these results, several Wall Street firms have raised expectations. The pressure will be on for Jensen Huang & co. to deliver with some of the heat coming off the Big Tech trade in August." MY COMMENT Not much to say about today. Just a close to an negative week that never showed much promise. At least we are STILL not anywhere near a CORRECTION. On July 31 the SP500 was at 4588. As of today at the close it was at 4369. A loss of 4.77% from the high on July 31. Seems worse than that....but I guess not.
Poor management, new ceo, departing from eBay was the first step in a major 80% decline… not looking good for them right now… almost similar with Disney but without as steep a decline
I think he meant that he was dealt a bad hand with Twitter. Musk tried to walk it back when he bought it but apparently it was already too late.
In regards to NVDAs earning, it’s easier to think of the stock stopping from climbing and taking a breather, but if we were to go based on product and innovation, this should have a ton more room to grow. A ton! They have no competition right now in the AI hardware sector, and most chip makers are just starting to figure what Jensen Huang figured out a decade ago
I think he meant Musk is too outspoken and impulsive. I completely understand where he’s coming from I just disagree. Perhaps I just want to see men like Elon Musk succeed. Men that are not afraid, who do things that advance civilization because it’s the best way forward and not live in fear every step in life. The United States of America used to celebrate people like this, now we love to tear them down. I still subscribe to the great man theory in history. It is not en vogue in “modern” academia to teach us about great men that change the course of history. As a long term investor I want to invest in companies led by men or women with great visions that change the world. I will always look at investment opportunities with these types of leaders. The America I still believe in leads the world because of men like Musk, we don’t make them disappear and silence them like Jack Ma. Just my opinion. My profile pic is a painting by an 18th Century artist (Panini) depicting romans frolicking and lounging around the ruins of a once great empire. I think its way too appropriate.
Well said Rajin Cajun. I still say MUSK is an amazing VISIONARY LEADER. A person that creates......rather than just talks. It makes me cringe when I see all the younger people that have aspirations to be......an INFLUENCER.
Not a business article.....but at least it mentions many of the issues with doing business in China that are often IGNORED. Xi’s China has become too risky for foreign businesses https://thehill.com/opinion/finance...nomy-arent-worth-the-rewards-of-its-business/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "China’s economy is losing momentum. Government officials say they want to attract more foreign investors as one way to boost economic growth, but they have a strange way of showing it. Recent moves, such as aggressive police raids against foreign businesses and the withholding of basic economic data are akin to putting up a “Do Not Enter” sign. The harder the Chinese Communist Party clamps down on news, views and data that don’t fit its preferred narrative, the greater the investment risk and the harder it will be for China to tap global capital markets. Economic data show just 0.8 percent growth in this year’s second quarter, down from 2.2 percent in the first quarter. A prolonged real estate slowdown, deflationary pressures and high youth unemployment don’t bode well for the next quarter, either. In an effort to turn things around, the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates and injected liquidity on Tuesday. Another lever the Chinese government is reaching for is foreign investment. For decades, the sheer size of China’s market was enough to make it one of the top destinations for multinational corporations looking to expand operations. But it’s not clear that market size alone is enough anymore. Bloomberg reports that “local officials are cold-calling foreign entrepreneurs” and that those “efforts are being met with a lukewarm reception.” To lure foreign investors, China’s state council published a plan last month with lower tax rates for foreign firms in China, ease of obtaining visas and residence permits for employees of foreign firms, and relaxed regulations on overseas data transfers. Time will tell how effective those sweeteners will be, but the looming question is whether it will be enough to counteract the increasing threat of your office getting raided, your employees getting detained, or worse. International businesses know that China has broadened the scope of its counterespionage law this year. According to the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, the law expands the definition of espionage far beyond just state secrets and intelligence, “to any documents, data, materials, or items related to national security interests, without defining the terms.” Bill Bishop, who publishes a newsletter on China that is trusted by global diplomats and policymakers, made note of a recent WeChat post from the country’s Ministry of State Security. The translation was chilling: “Counter espionage requires the mobilization of the entire society!” Businesses also know that in March, Chinese authorities detained a senior Japanese employee of drugmaker Astellas Pharma as he was boarding a flight back to Japan. China claims he was engaged in espionage activities, which Japan denies. The government’s potentially all-encompassing definition of espionage, combined with these recent events, is alarming. It suggests that if you are a foreign firm in China, and Chinese authorities believe that your company has obtained information in a document or data that somehow relates to national security — however ill-defined that may be — then your firm could be subjected to one of those raids. Also, any of your employees in China, whether nationals or expats, could be questioned or even jailed. What if your company is in the business of gathering business intelligence? Consider Capvision, “a global primary research platform connecting financial institutions, consulting firms, global enterprises.” Their Shanghai office was raided earlier this year. Their entire business model is built on providing industry expert knowledge services. That means their employees compile information about Chinese markets, companies and policies for foreign clients working in China. If one of their clients seeks market information on a sector that the CCP considers of national security importance, will its employees be at risk? China’s state broadcaster, CCTV, named defense, finance, energy and health as key industries. Does this mean foreign firms looking to do business in China in those sectors can no longer get market information? China announced this week that it will no longer report youth unemployment data. What if an economic consulting firm attempts to estimate youth unemployment. Will that be considered espionage? Uncertainty raises the risk premium so that the expected returns must be greater for the investment to occur. Greater uncertainty lowers investment from both large and small firms, but the negative impact is much greater for small firms, perhaps including those entrepreneurs whom local Chinese officials were calling. Greater uncertainty can also the reduce responsiveness of investment to demand shocks. In other words, when China’s economy does turn around, investors may be wary of jumping back in." MY COMMENT Doing business in China and investing in Chinese companies carry the same risk. That risk boils down to one simple fact.....you can not trust anything in China. Everything in China is subject to government control and manipulation. BEWARE....if you choose to put your employees, company secrets and assets, money, etc, etc, at the mercy of the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.
We still get a number of ACTUAL magazines that come in the mail. Many of them are art magazines. I just got the latest edition of Western Art Collector. Talk about strong consumers and markets.....prices for historic and more recent Western Art are INSANE. Auctions are setting record prices and not just for dead artists. I dont think I have seen this market this strong.....ever. Record prices are being set every day. Paintings are blowing through estimates in auctions........and.....the sell through rates are at historic levels often in the mid to high 90% range. This seems to be happening in various types of art. Demand is strong and there is absolutely no shortage of money. The consumer is certainly very much alive in this market.
The week to come. Nvidia reports earnings, Fed gathers in Jackson Hole: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...on-hole-what-to-know-this-week-143050927.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The final full week of August will bring investors two key events — earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and the Federal Reserve's annual confab in Jackson Hole. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will kick off on Thursday, with Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech Friday morning serving as the event's main highlight. Powell's commentary on the path forward for interest rates, the overall state of the economy, and any suggestion inflation pressures are prompting a rethink of the Fed's current goals will be in focus. On the corporate side, Nvidia leads the earnings story this week with the company set to report results from a quarter that prompted the chipmaker to raise its revenue outlook by 50%. Elsewhere on the corporate calendar, Lowe's (LOW), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and Peloton (PTON) are also expected to report in the week ahead. August is so far shaping up to be the worst month of the year for stocks. All three of the major averages closed last week lower as a hawkish read of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher in the back half of the week. Powell is set to speak as economic data continues to come in stronger than expected. Last week, the July retail sales report showed sales grew 0.7% during the month, nearly double what economists had predicted. The report sent the AtlantaFed's GDPNow forecast higher, with the tracker now estimating third quarter GDP growth will reach an annualized rate of 5.8%, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021. Another sign that, in the view of some experts, the economy might be too strong for the Federal Reserve's liking. "Powell should sound less balanced at Jackson Hole in our view, since the latest data raise the risk of a fresh increase in inflation," Bank of America's economics team wrote in a note on Friday. Inflation has fallen significantly since last year's Jackson Hole speech, during which Powell said rates would rise until the "job is done" bringing down inflation. As recently as July, Powell has noted inflation remains "well above" the Fed's long-run goal of 2%. Importantly, Powell's speech comes before PCE inflation data is released on August 31 and the August jobs report is released on September 1. "We don't see Powell giving much direction about where policy is headed at next week’s Jackson Hole meeting," JPMorgan's chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote on Friday. "Perhaps the one thing he could say that would have the support of the Committee is that policy will remain restrictive for as long as it takes to squeeze undue inflation pressures out of the economy." On the corporate side, all eyes will be on Nvidia. In May, the chipmaker said it expected artificial intelligence demand to push its current quarter sales forecast from ~$7 billion to ~$11 billion. This forecast which capped off what had already been a manic spring for investor enthusiasm around AI. On Wednesday, the bill comes due. Nvidia stock is up nearly 200% on the year, though its gains have moderated alongside the broader market since mid-July. And how the company follows up its surprise news from May could have broader market implications. "NVDA is quite literally serving as 'kingmaker' as a huge wave of capital and new financing vehicles are chasing new AI software and specialized cloud infrastructure models while enterprises are still very early in a struggle to access enough capacity to build out AI at scale — this likely lasts well into next year," UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri wrote in a note last week. "Even for more tactical investors, it still seems early to get off this train because (year-over-year) comps won’t get tough until year-end and the stock has rarely peaked prior to (year-over-year) comps peaking." Nvidia's earnings report in late May also marked a shift in overall market sentiment for the year. After the stock carried tech names higher, Wall Street strategists became more openly bullish on the outlook for stocks in 2023. Many boosted their year-end targets for the S&P 500, specifically citing Artificial Intelligence. With this year's rally pausing in August, the exuberance around AI appears to have lost some of its luster. And the way for the market to get its mojo back, according to Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, would be Nvidia stock to begin a new march higher. "Given that the public has begun to sell stocks in recent weeks into the challenging [seasonality], we would expect anything besides a decisive breakout [in NVDA stock] toward $500 as being neutral to negative for the broader market, keeping uncertainty 'bid,'" Emanuel wrote in a note on Friday." MY COMMENT Of course the FED will be out in force this week. The decisive event of the week will be NVIDIA. I have absolutely no idea how they will do with their earnings. I also have no feel for how the markets will react even to extremely good news. I have a suspicion that even GREAT earnings that BEAT will somehow not be enough. I hope I am wrong.
NVIDIA Insider Trading Activity 2023 (NASDAQ:NVDA) (marketbeat.com) no nva insider trading since late june. is that a sign of good earnings to come?
The thing about investing, RC, is that declarations of superior knowledge or being correct are irrelevant. What you think of my point of view could not matter less. I stand behind what I wrote and feel it is sufficiently clear and complete. Twitter is worth, at most, half of what it was when Elon bought it. It was on death watch and even Elon said there was a possibility it would not make it. I'm happy to see it somewhat stable. BlueSky has ramped beyond 600K users (with capped sign-up) and looks pretty good. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of it. I do not predict it will surpass X but I also do not predict BlueSky will fail. Time will tell. I would definitely be interested in a BlueSky IPO, if the current trajectory continues. I believed in Elon for many years, when the vast majority of others did not. I certainly do not predict his demise or put any value in your attempt to project onto me but I will say I believe Elon is far less stable than he once was and less capable, as a manager. It has become clear, progress at his companies has slowed, with the exception of TBC which seems to be a real gem. I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable of Neuralink to comment on it. So RC, put your money on the table and spin the wheel. You will win or lose, based on your ability. If you wish to share your point of view, that would be appreciated, however, simply declaring someone else wrong is d-bag behavior and as pointless as any of your posts I've read in the last couple of years. Kind regards and happy investing.
Apologies if I offended you and if I came across as a (D-bag), I honestly just wanted to see your perspective, which you mostly gave. I have been following your Tesla and investing threads for a number of years now and I was surprised that you said what you said. I won't defend myself as it's clearly irrelevant to you, you think Elon is less stable/capable as a manager today and I think he is more than stable and doing great things that will benefit our society in the long run as well as continue to have projects worth investing in. Twitter nor any other social media app for me was never a good investment pre-Elon or post Elon. You felt the need to bash Musk in response to a Disney/Paypal post, I felt the need to defend him. Thanks for the follow-up to your statement, respect!
A good open.....with all the professionals in New York off on vacation and very shallow and low volume markets. I see this as the primary reason for outsize moves and erratic markets this month. Low volume can exaggerate market moves. Anyway.....I like this little article. In Investing, Risks Differ but Never Disappear https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...in-investing-risks-differ-but-never-disappear (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“Safety” doesn’t exist. Editors’ Note: MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. The below merely represent a theme we wish to highlight. The tragic Maui wildfires have wrought unspeakable damage and loss of life, so it seems rather perverse to focus on the stock market side of this situation. Yet focus there we will, briefly, because some in the financial press are now highlighting some repercussions that defy conventional wisdom about the Utilities sector—long considered “safe.” The recent performance of a local power company shows otherwise, much as a California utility did in the wake of the Paradise fire five years ago. Let this be a reminder that “safety” doesn’t exist in investing. Risks may vary, but they are omnipresent. Utilities’ reputation stems from the sector’s traditionally defensive characteristics. Regardless of the economy’s ups and downs, people have to keep the lights on, the heat/air conditioner going and the water running. This makes Utilities revenues inelastic, if you will pardon the use of economic vernacular, which means demand doesn’t fluctuate all that much with changes in economic conditions. Therefore, the sector typically underperforms when times are good—when companies that can better capitalize on growing consumer and business demand tend to thrive—and outperforms when markets are pricing in tough economic times. It isn’t foolproof, but it is the general trend. Defensive doesn’t mean safe—it just means countercyclical. But pundits often use “safe” as an incorrect shorthand synonym, which can lead people to forget Utilities companies face business risks just like any other company. California’s main power company, PG&E, proved this in 2018 when the authorities deemed its power lines culpable for the Paradise fires, leading to a financial settlement that contributed to its bankruptcy. Now investors seem to be pricing in a similar outcome for Hawaiian Electric, whose stock price is down over 60% since the fires hit Lahaina last week as investors weigh the likelihood that it will face penalties for its power lines’ and procedures’ contribution to the tragedy. In the early 2000s, SoCal Edison and PG&E demonstrated a similar lack of “safety” when wholesale energy prices soared in a cost-capped environment. Whenever you see any investment described as “safe,” dig in. Ask questions. Do research. Because “safe” doesn’t exist. The vast majority of investors consider US Treasurys safe, yet they are still subject to interest rate risk, inflation risk and other contributors to volatility. Default risk may be minimal, but that isn’t bond prices’ only driver. Before 2008, bank stocks had the reputation for being stodgy picks with safe high dividends. But the global financial crisis shattered that myth and most bank dividends along with it. If money market funds were truly “safe,” regulators wouldn’t be at their wits’ end trying to prevent the equivalent of bank runs on them during periods of market stress. People once called stablecoins “safe” because they are pegged to the dollar, but several recent blowups and apparent frauds disproved this. Even if some Utilities stocks don’t blow up, owning a lot of defensive stocks in a bull market can carry huge opportunity costs—a very real risk many disregard because the return you didn’t earn isn’t visible. Every investment has risks. Those are unavoidable. The key is identifying those risks and weighing them against each other and the potential benefits. With cash, it is generally a tradeoff between liquidity and stability and the risks of inflation eating purchasing power. With stocks overall, it is generally a balance between short-term volatility and expected long-term return. And within stocks, it is a matter of identifying the risks and opportunities unique to industries and sectors and not simply accepting truisms at face value. Taking this approach will help you be savvier and more nimble, reducing the likelihood you get caught off guard the next time a company defies conventional wisdom. With that out of the way, we want to express our sincere condolences to those who have suffered a loss in the Maui wildfires. The images of this tragedy struck us deeply and our hearts are with you all." MY COMMENT YES.....every investment has risk. Even cash has risk. One key factor for any investor is having a good comprehensive understanding of your RISK TOLERANCE. Once you understand your situation and personality than you can pick investments that match your risk tolerance. Of course....this process is two steps......understanding your personal risk tolerance......AND.....being able to realistically and rationally evaluate potential investments based on their actual risk and how that risk matches your tolerance. It is not very scientific....but....If you are constantly freaking out over your investments and the markets.....that is a pretty good indicator that you need to reevaluate your investments in terms of your risk tolerance.
As the markets begin to mature into the day today....we are now at a mixed market. The averages that I use as a guideline are nicely positive.....both the NASDAQ and the SP500 are starting the day UP and growing into the day a bit. Stocks open higher after three-week slump: Stock market news today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-slump-stock-market-news-today-133331891.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose at the open, signaling a bounce in equities amid a brutal August for investors so far. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was up 0.4% after losing more than 2% last week. Bond yields edged higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond hovered around 4.3%, near its highest levels in more than a decade. The moves come as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate campaign is again set to take center stage in an otherwise sleepy week in markets. Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak at an annual gathering of bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. Last week, concerns on the future path of hikes helped drive market losses. On the earnings front, the highlight Monday is Zoom (ZM). This week's highlight will come Wednesday from Nvidia (NVDA), which is looking for an encore after its blowout guidance last quarter. Nvidia stock is up more than 200% so far this year." MY COMMENT NOT sure I would call this a BRUTAL month. The SP500 is down by about 4-5% for the month. I dont consider that particularly significant with the big gains we have had so far this year.
As a long term investor my mind set makes me see this as CRAZY. But I do understand how the short term works and am immune to this sort of short term stock action. Apple stock is having an awful August, now in correction https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...awful-august-now-in-correction-135850402.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Apple stock (AAPL) has had a rotten August. Shares of the tech behemoth have plunged 10.8% to $175.07 this month compared to a 4.8% drop for the S&P 500 and a 3% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, per Yahoo Finance data. The stock has now entered a technical correction — down about 11% from its July 31 high of $196.45. A correction is often defined as a decline of at least 10% in a stock price or market from a peak. The pullback in Apple reflects several factors, experts say. First and foremost is the increasing economic pressure in China that unfolded in August. Fears on the health of over-leveraged property developers, a slow-to-act Chinese government on the yawning crisis, and a sagging stock market have clouded the outlook for Apple product demand. The importance of China to Apple's results shouldn't be understated. Apple's sales in Greater China rose 8% in the most recent quarter to $15.76 billion. Sales of iPhones in the country increased by a double-digit percentage as consumers upgraded their smartphones. Greater China is seen hauling in $67.2 billion in sales for Apple in the fiscal year ended Sept. 24, 2023, representing 18% of total sales. Wall Street analysts currently expect sales in Greater China to increase nearly 16% in Apple's new fiscal year on the back of brisk demand for the iPhone 15. But CEO Tim Cook appeared to tamp down expectations on China by signing off on a cautious September quarter financial outlook when it reported results earlier this month. Apple guided to a modest year-over-year revenue decline. The Street was banking on slight growth in the quarter. "We continued to face an uneven macroeconomic environment," Cook told analysts on an earnings call. With the potential for a China sales letdown, investors have opted to sell Apple first and ask questions later. What could be a ho-hum iPhone 15 introduction in mid-September hasn't helped sentiment around Apple. Apple is widely expected to show off incremental improvements, such as replacing the iPhone's notch, to its cash cow piece of hardware rather than something transformational. In other words, don't expect a foldable phone from Apple à la Samsung. "We think the iPhone 15 will be more of an evolutionary product vs. a revolutionary one," Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said. Despite the concerns and stock price slide, the sell-side community continues to stick with Apple. There has only been one downgrade of note from investment banks: Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett cut his Apple rating to Neutral from Buy. "We would be buying Apple as a pound the table name into the next iPhone 15 cycle around the corner and a new tech bull market underway, despite the bears coming out of hibernation and the cookie cutter Fed higher for longer [interest rate] thesis," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance." MY COMMENT First....I hate when traders are called "investors" as appears in this little article. I also hate when investors are called "traders". there is a HUGE difference. Much of this little drop in APPLE is simply short term trading driven by short term events. It is also driven by the lackadaisical commentary of CEO Cook. Is this simply a strategy to tam down expectations....probably. This is now hindsight but I dont see these numbers as particularly bad considering: "Apple's sales in Greater China rose 8% in the most recent quarter to $15.76 billion. Sales of iPhones in the country increased by a double-digit percentage as consumers upgraded their smartphones." This is a good example of a great company being disrespected over the short term. What counts will be the medium to long term.....and we will have to wait to see how that all plays out. Of course......my mind set is obvious considering that I have recently done some purchases of AAPL in some of the accounts that I manage as reported in this thread.
My take on the current market is that we have gotten carried away to the down side over the past three weeks. Of course....this does not mean that the little drop in stocks is over with. Nvidia will be a HUGE psychological event this week. For long term investors this is a time to just plug along....wait and watch and do nothing. The prices being down mean any reinvesting or new purchases are happening at better prices. If you are inclined it might even be a good time to buy. i suspect that most investors STILL have a very nice gain for the year in spite of the return of the DOOM & GLOOM. the primary concern that is impacting stocks right now is the Ten Year Treasury being around 4.3%. BUT.....as I have often said....this rate is STILL at the low end of the historic yield chart for the Ten Year.
