I think that is actually beneficial to long term success in many ways. No, I do not check my accounts daily. I do go in once or twice a month to add some contributions usually above what is already automated. Usually because I have worked extra and want to get that money invested. I'll check to make sure those orders were in properly, but that's about it. I usually will go in toward the end of the year and just kind of evaluate things on my plan. This results in no changes likely 99% of the time. I have found planning in advance as one goes along their financial journey to be valuable. It gives me time to evaluate what I want to do. I have tried to do this from the beginning and set "mile markers" along the way. This has allowed me to stay on course without having to make sudden changes. Yes, I do chime in here on this thread pretty regularly....maybe more than I should at times. I guess my interest in posting here is not so much about the daily market movements or the constant noise investors see and hear. My interest here is to show an alternative to all of the hoopla and "noise" investors can face. Long term investing works, but we have to get out of our own way and let it work.
Like everything else in life… when I get busy at my business I hardly have time for all my other hussles (stocks, collectibles, tinder etc)… but when I do, I check it daily and enjoy days like today (…Yup, I wrote tinder, just to check and see if anyones paying attention) (…..It was a joke)
Here are a few little gems from an investing letter I get occasionally. It most always sticks to the basic, common sense approach to long term investing. 1) The most important discipline for investment success is to maintain a long-term perspective. Most investors do just the opposite. Led astray by the daily financial news, the investment industry, and social media, they focus on what is happening now. 2) Keep investment costs low. 3) Ignore all market and economic forecasts. There are no reliable forecasters. Forecasts can tempt you to stray from your financial plan, especially when the forecasts confirm your own views. This is known as “confirmation bias”. 4) Investing requires rational decision making in an environment of uncertainty. The best way to do this is to operate, as nearly as possible, without a market or economic viewpoint (other than long-term optimism). Relying on your intuition or the recommendations of clickbait, catastrophic financial journalism is a recipe for disaster. You need a game plan. 5) Half of investing is mathematics, charts and graphs, and the other half is emotions. We humans understand the world primarily through narratives, not data and history. In investing, emotions are more important than data and history. When stocks fall, we feel as if they will fall even further and are tempted to shift assets from stocks to cash or bonds. When stocks rise, we feel as if they are going to rise even more and wish we had a higher allocation to stocks. A financial plan helps keep your emotions in check and keeps you on course. Easier said than done. 6) There is no investment that offers investors what they desire -- high returns and low risk. Nevertheless, Wall Street will always offer investors what they crave. Alternative strategies and investments that have failed in the past are often repackaged, renamed, and offered anew to investors. Some will work for a while but when they blow up, investors who never understood them in the first place will suffer the consequences. “We light the fuse, you hear the kaboom” describes how Wall Street continues to do business with its gullible clients. 7) Simplify. Many people think that complexity in finance is a sign of superiority. The more complicated an idea, the better. Not true. I would argue that simplicity is a better proxy for superiority. Simpler usually means cheaper, and cheaper leads to better performance. Yet, investing simplification comes with significant challenges. You need to be still and do less in a system that incentivizes and encourages activity. But it is difficult to be still when all the voices you hear, including the ones inside your head, are saying, “Do something!” 8) There is no such thing as risk-free investing, and you must choose the type of risk you want to take.
Another example of why companies should consider reducing their footprint in China. One of these days.....we are gonna regret not seeing it for what it is. Not much detail in the article, but not surprising to see this become more prevalent....if accurate. Hong Kong/New YorkCNN — China has banned the use of iPhones for central government officials, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. The WSJ reports that managers have been notifying staff of the ban viachat groups or meetings. CNN has reached out to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Apple (AAPL), but has not received a response. A source who regularly deals with Chinese central government agencies told CNN that Chinese officials had already been following an unwritten rule of shunning iPhones for months despite the absence of a formal policy. The source asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject. Last June, CNN reported that some Chinese government ministries had banned Teslas from entering their premises over security fears.
LOL......no I just lost a button at most......not a whole shirt. I had a vet appointment this morning and a Dr appointment mid day where the Dr was running over an hour late. So I missed the whole day. Of course I could see on my phone that it was a total waste anyway.....so nothing really lost in not following along with the day today. I did just look at my account........a RED day today for me. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.97% today. I also saw the various excuses for today.....the FED.....the Ten Year yield.....oil prices up...etc, etc, etc. My one BRIGHT spot today.......I did have ONE stock that was up today.....COST.
Leon Cooperman on squawk this morning was epic. He was actually crying on TV expressing concerns for capitalism in our country. A must watch
You have got to love the current market. Very interesting. It is the WIMP market......the WEENIE market. The market that thinks there is a monster under every bed and in every closet. It is the market that freaks itself out every time there is some small bump in the ten year yield or anything that might revive the FED. We are in a bad horror movie.....with the FED being the monster that will not die. I cant believe that the average investor is this skittish and fearful. SO....I am left with only one conclusion......the day to day BS is simply the short term traders and wall street Professionals freaking out. How EMBARRASSING to be a Wall Street professional.......and.....having people seeing you running around with your hair on fire like a lemming every day....based on some ridiculous news item of the day. What do the clients of these people think? You know in the past the professionals on Wall Street were tough people. They were hardened professionals.....in a tough business. Now.....I guess they all want some sort of participation trophy. They are all tiptoeing around afraid of their own shadow. That is what I see in the market right now.
SO....here is the open today. Stocks tumble with Fed's next move in focus, Apple losses deepen https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...deepen-stock-market-news-today-133704073.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wall Street stocks tumbled at Thursday's open, as building signs the US economy is running hot gave investors reason to believe the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was broadly unchanged, but the other major stock gauges lost ground after all three closed in the red on Wednesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted more than 1.5% as Apple (AAPL) sank nearly 4%. Stocks are coming under pressure after data unexpectedly showed US services activity at a six-month high in August, seen as a sign of resilience among consumers and in the broader economy amid higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, gains in Treasury yields (^TNX) have weighed on tech stocks, but eased slightly on Thursday. Apple shares continued to fall after reports that China has forbidden government officials from using its iPhone and it plans to extend the ban to state companies. The move is a headwind for Apple in its biggest overseas market, which is also its global production base. The run-up in oil prices that cast doubt on the Fed's push to cool inflation took a step back on Thursday after China trade figures failed to ease worries about sluggishness in the world's second-biggest economy. Questions are swirling about whether the slowdown in China could be a "top risk" to the US economy. Added to a fresh batch of downbeat data from Europe, the data underlines worries about flagging global demand. Against that background, an update on US initial jobless claims later Thursday could feed into the debate as to whether the Fed will be persuaded it needs to stick with high rates at its September meeting in a couple of weeks. Unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest levels since February." MY COMMENT Some fun stuff above. First.....there is practically NOTHING that is showing the USA economy running hot. Most of the economic indicators are not showing a hot economy. What we are actually seeing is a borderline healthy economy running about where it normally runs based on history. The service sector is NOT the US economy....not even close. Second.....oil. The fact that we have allowed other countries to control the oil market and oil production is why we are seeing this little price bump. It has NOTHING to do with inflation. It is countries trying to manipulate the supply of oil. There is nothing the FED can or will do that has any impact on this issue. This is NOT an issue of inflation. As to APPLE and China......well this is the business version of....."you get what you vote for". This company and most other American companies have been sucking up to China for decades. They allowed the communist Chinese dictatorship to control them, steal their secrets and tech, and push them around like they were some 96lb weakling on the beach. They bowed to China and jumped when they said jump. Well now....welcome to the real world. The Chinese are not dependable business partners. They are the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship and they operate ONLY based on self interest. When it fits their needs they will throw any company or anyone under the bus in an instant. When they no longer need you they will screw you. These big companies need to wake up.....they actually have the power....not China. They need to bite the bullet and take the short term pain and tell China to shove it......we are going to Viet Nam, India, and other places that will work with us and not against us. These companies.....if they had any guts.....would realize that they have the power....especially acting in concert.....to send the Chinese economy back to the dark ages.
You know I LOVE to hate on the IRS. They never change. The IRS Gives Another Reason to Doubt the IRS https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...s_another_reason_to_doubt_the_irs_977501.html
To continue my theme today.....from my first couple of posts. The economy is NOT "running hot" http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/09/the-economy-is-not-running-hot.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Today bond yields rose and the stock market swooned, as the market was apparently spooked by some stronger-than-expected statistics coupled with the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast of 5% growth in the current quarter. The fear is that the economy is "running hot" and that will prod the Fed to keep rates high (or higher) for longer, in order to lower the economy's temperature—possibly triggering a recession at some point. My read of the data and other key indicators suggests nothing of the sort. Chart #1 Chart #1 shows the ISM Service Sector Index. While it has ticked higher in recent months, it is still below the levels leading up to the Covid shutdowns, during which time the economy was experiencing relatively modest growth on the order of 2% per year. No boom here and no bust either. Chart #2 Chart #2 shows the Business Activity component of the overall index. Here too we see an uptick in recent months, but activity is still somewhat less strong than we saw in the latter half of the 2010s. If anything, I'd say this looks like "steady as she goes." Chart #3 Chart #3 shows the employment component of the Services index. Same story as the others. A modest increase in the number of firms reporting increased hiring activity, but nothing to suggest a boom that needs to be snuffed out. Chart #4 Chart #4 shows a modest increase in the number of firms reporting paying higher prices. This comes after a gigantic decline over the previous year which corresponded closely with a similar decline in overall inflation. Does the recent uptick foreshadow a return of higher inflation, or is it just a wiggle such as we have seen on and off over the years? I'd have to see rising prices showing in other areas to believe this is of concern. Instead I see most commodity prices flat to down, and housing prices sharply lower than a year ago. (And of course it bears repeating that the ex-shelter version of the CPI has increased only 0.8% in the past year.) The major exception is rising oil prices which are likely being driven by ongoing problems with Russia's Ukraine-related sanctions. I also see a stronger dollar which is the very antithesis of inflation. Chart #5 Chart #5 compares the U.S. service sector index (same one as shown in Chart #1 above) with a similar index measuring the health of the service sector in the Eurozone. The Eurozone is hurting, that's for sure, and so is China. It's tough to see how widespread weakness overseas is going to foster inflationary growth conditions in the U.S. In addition, a strong dollar—driven by rising rates— actually reinforces disinflationary pressures here, since it makes imports cheaper and keeps downward pressure on export prices. If the Fed raises rates yet again, that would likely drive the dollar still higher and that in turn would begin to create destabilizing forces overseas. Chart #6 Chart #6 shows the spread between the yield on investment grade corporate bonds and their "junk" rated counterparts. This spread is saying the prospects for the U.S. economy are quite favorable (since the spread is unusually low), because investors demand only a relatively small premium to take on the additional credit risk of junk bonds. This is notable especially now, coming on the heels of an impressive increase in corporate debt issuance. Despite increased debt supply, corporate bond yields have not increased in any meaningful fashion. That further suggests that there is no shortage of liquidity in the bond market, and that all but rules out a near-term recession. I'll repeat once more that the unique characteristic of the Fed's current tightening episode is the continued abundance of bank reserves, which currently total over $3 trillion. All other tightening episodes saw a deliberate contraction in bank reserves (banks actually had to borrow reserves to meet their collateral requirements), and that in turn led to a scarcity of liquidity in the banking system. With lots of liquidity the market is capable of adjusting to almost any kind of disruption. That wasn't the case in prior tightening episodes. Interest rates may be high but there is no shortage of money. Chart #7 Chart #8 Chart #7 shows an index of new mortgage applications, which are down over 50% since early 2021, and down about 70% from the days of the housing market boom in the mid-2000s. Chart #8 shows an index of housing affordability, which has reached a 33 year low. Higher interest rates have had a huge impact on the housing market, driving resale and refi activity sharply lower, all while making housing unaffordable to legions of households. If any sector of the economy is at risk of a bust, it's housing. Housing is also suffering from an effective liquidity shortage. Homes for sale are at very low levels because 1) sellers don't want to give up their 3% mortgages and 2) buyers don't want to take on a 7% mortgage. With very low turnover no one can be sure that current home prices are indicative of underlying value. Moreover, desperate buyers are likely to pay more than they can afford and are thus vulnerable to a recession or any downturn in prices. This is probably the worst time in many decades to buy a house." MY COMMENT You could do the same exercise with every measure of economic activity. We are NOT in a hot economy. AND......who said investing in stocks and funds has anything to do with economic data? It is all about earnings and success in running a business....not the general economy. As usual.....IGNORE the daily BS....it is garbage.
Lets hope there are still enough people left in the country and the world....that see REALITY. 3 reasons stocks will keep rising this year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-stocks-will-keep-rising-this-year-093016673.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks closed lower on Wednesday, marking a third-straight session of losses for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and underscoring the seasonal trend of market declines in September. But one of Wall Street's most prominent bulls thinks the S&P could gain another 13% this year. "Yes, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty to be resolved in the coming months that will likely lead to shorter periods of heightened volatility, but we continue to believe that higher US stock prices through year-end is the path of least resistance with our bull case scenario (5,050) becoming increasingly more likely," BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski wrote on Tuesday night. Historical trends point to future gains Belski notes that historically stocks have produced gains 71.4% of the time in the six months following a 20% run-up like the S&P 500 saw to start 2023, meaning September seasonality may not be at play. He isn't the only one who has voiced the sentiment.Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told Yahoo Finance that when stocks are up more than 10% year-to-date, September seasonality usually isn't as bad. Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee recently called for a gain in the benchmark average this September. "We believe consensus caution of September will prove to be unwarranted," Lee wrote in a note on Friday. "In fact, we believe September probabilities favor a gain of 2% to 3%, supported by a downward shift in consensus views around inflation and inflation risks." High yields don't imply doom and gloom Seasonality aside, Belski and BMO's call comes as stronger-than-expected economic data throughout the summer has some economists fearing upside risks to inflation. Rates tied to the 10-year Treasury note are at their highest levels since the Great Recession (rising yields can be seen sign of shrinking investor confidence). And Wall Street bears are still wary that the lagging impacts of monetary policy will slow economic growth, whether or not the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates again. JPMorgan's chief markets strategist Marko Kolanovic says the risks of an interest rate shock and monetary tightening are "clear," noting concerns over a consumer credit crunch, global real estate and funding to business could spawn a potential labor market slowdown. But Belski and other street bulls point out the recession many predicted in 2023 hasn't happened yet. After a historically aggressive rate hiking campaign, job openings and participation are back to pre-pandemic levels, fueling an unforseen resilence in consumer spending. Meanwhile, inflation has decreased faster than expected, even if a recent uptick has economists on pause. "Unless trends in these indicators take a significant turn for the worse in the coming months, we believe the fabled soft-landing scenario is becoming increasingly more believable," Belski wrote. Fed chair Jerome Powell recently warned that the central bank has been monitoring the stronger than expected economic data and that the Fed is prepared to hold interest rates high in order to bring down inflation. But analysis by Belski's team at BMO shows rates don't necessarily mean doom for stocks. Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10.6% in the next year when the 10-year Treasury Yield was below its 3-year moving average while gaining 8.6% when yields werebelow the three-year average. "More important, should yields begin to decline from current levels our analysis suggests that the market can deliver double-digit gain even if yields remain above average," Belski wrote. Earnings growth expected to improve Earnings projections, seen by some as the single most important driver of stock prices, are rising. Recent data from Factset shows earnings estimates for the remainder of 2023 and 2024 full-year forecasts were revised up during July and August. Earnings estimates haven't been revised over the first two months of a quarter since the third quarter of 2021. This, Belski argues, bodes well for future company earnings and therefore stock prices. "Revisions and earnings growth have exhibited a strong positive relationship historically with the former typically leading the latter by several months," Belski wrote. "Therefore, we expect the recent uptick in revisions to translate into improved earnings growth in the coming months." MY COMMENT Some little bit of REALITY. BUT......apparently reality does not matter anymore in the short term. YES......we are on the way to a very good year when it all comes to an end on December 31. Any weakness that we hit along the way will be normal market CHAFF. We have yet to see a single correction this year.....a market drop of 10% or more. I doubt we will see one this month or any other time between now and the end of the year. BUT.....if we do have a correction.....welcome to a normal market. A correction is NOT a bear market. it is usually simply a pause for some short length of time.
LOL......after posting the above.....I hear Varney talking about how irrationality and emotion is ruling the world.
Interesting what’s happening with China. There’s no doubt in my mind that there have been certain diplomatic negotiations with the country ever since Biden took office. But overall their economy is in dire straits, Gina Raimondo (secretary of US commerce) was just there and came back doing victory laps and high fiving everyone while flipping the bird to Xi. not many people may know this, but Trump’s tariffs are still very solidly set in place and Gina communicated it to china quite thoroughly. and so, a few weeks after her visit, lo and behold, china is starting to ban US products over there. Last time we had negotiations with that country at exactly the same time of year (September 19, year before election) covid paid the world a visit. When are we gonna take matters more seriously and part ways from that ruthless regime?
Hopefully soon Zukodany....although we cant even begin to get the majority of people under age 40 off TikTok.
Not a horrible day for me today. Of course I am in the red....but I have four stocks UP and four stocks DOWN today at this moment. I have a medium level loss thanks to NVDA and AAPL. But.....what is currently happening to those companies is simply market stupidity. My UP stocks at this moment are.....AMZN, HD, GOOGL, and COST. At the moment NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT are market whipping boys.
Poor House Hunters......still getting hammered by low inventory, high prices and high mortgage rates. Well not really high rates......but......for those that never operated in a normal mortgage rate environment....they seem high. Mortgage rates remain above 7% for the fourth straight week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mort...7-for-the-fourth-straight-week-160057014.html
My LOSS moderated some by the close today. I ended with the same four stocks up as earlier and the same four down as earlier. I got beat by the SP500 by 0.38% today. Onward and upward.
