WYNN, LVS, MGM, and MPEL down on this Macau’s economy to contract 6 pct in 2016: Moody’s http://www.ggrasia.com/macaus-economy-to-contract-6-pct-in-2016-moodys/
Macau Gambling Falls less than expected June revenue down 25th-straight month, easing from May’s drop Macau’s gaming revenue fell less than analysts’ estimates in June as tourists and leisure gamblers helped boost the city’s casinos including those owned by units of Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Wynn Resorts Ltd. Gross gaming revenue fell 8.5 percent to 15.9 billion patacas ($2 billion), the lowest level since September 2010 and marking 25 consecutive months of declines, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That followed a 9.6 percent decrease in May and compares with the median estimate of an 9.5 percent drop by seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mates-boosted-by-tourists?cmpid=yhoo.headline
Macau GGR dip extending to 2H, but at slower pace: govt The Macau government expects overall casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the city to continue declining – in year-on-year terms – in the second half of 2016. However, the rate of decline is likely to slow, the Office of the Secretary for Economy and Finance stated in a Friday release. Overall GGR in Macau declined by 8.5 percent year-on-year in June, marking 25 consecutive months of declines, official data show. The result means that for the first half of 2016, casino GGR was MOP107.79 billion (US$13.47 billion), a contraction of 11.4 percent when measured year-on-year. In its release, the Office of the Secretary for Economy and Finance noted that the decline in casino GGR “is likely to persist for some more time”. The note added that there was a “huge chance” that declines in casino revenue – as measured in year-on-year terms – would continue in the second half of 2016, “but with a continuous contraction regarding the decline rate”. The statement did not clarify whether the forecast contraction in the rate of casino GGR decline for the second half of 2016 was being adjudged on a sequential basis, i.e. compared with the decline rate recorded in the first half of 2016; or on a year-on-year basis, i.e. with the decline rate measured against the second half of 2015. The year-on-year contraction in the second half of 2015 had been -31.1 percent. The release noted that Macau casino GGR generated by mass-market gaming during the first six months of 2016 accounted for 53.1 percent of the total; i.e. a 10-percentage point increase in year-on-year terms in the contribution of mass-market play to total casino GGR. The note added that VIP GGR declined by 17.3 percent in the first half of 2016 in year-on-year terms, while mass GGR went down by 3.6 percent. Official figures regarding the market revenue split between VIP and mass-market gambling during the second quarter of 2016 are due to be issued later this month by the city’s casino regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. The government release said that the slower decline rate of mass GGR in the first half of 2016 – compared with that of VIP GGR – was a result of the “works by the Macau government to promote the diversification of the gaming sector.” The local government stated in its 2016 fiscal budget plan that casino GGR for full-year 2016 was likely to be MOP200 billion. That would represent a decline of 13.4 percent compared to the MOP230.84 billion in casino GGR recorded for the whole of 2015. GGR in the first half of 2016 reached 53.9 percent of the government’s forecast for the full year. Friday’s announcement by the government added that the opening of two new casino resorts in the city in the second half of 2016 could help attract more tourists to Macau. Wynn Palace, the new Cotai casino resort developed by Wynn Macau Ltd, is to open on August 22, the firm confirmed in a statement last week. The Parisian Macao, by rival operator Sands China Ltd, is set to open in mid-September. Weaker than expected recovery: analysts “GGR recovery [in Macau] has been weaker than we initially expected,” Credit Suisse AG stated in a report issued on Monday. “We attribute this to several unexpected events, including: China liquidity being slow in improving players’ demand; new regulations (anti-money laundering) targeting VIP segments; and junkets moving business overseas in light of the regulatory overhang. The slower VIP revenue also dragged the premium mass recovery,” wrote analysts Kenneth Fong, Isis Wong and Lok Kan Chan. Credit Suisse stated it was revising its GGR estimates for full year 2016 for Macau to a decline of 6 percent, versus a prior estimate of an increase of 8 percent. Wells Fargo Securities LLC said it expected “additional regulation and new supply could weigh on the second half of 2016 results”. Analysts Cameron McKnight, Daniel Adam and Robert J. Shore wrote in a Friday note that, based on current trends, July’s casino GGR would in likelihood decline by between 8 percent and 10 percent in year-on-year terms. Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd also estimated casino GGR to continue declining in July in year-on-year terms. “July typically sees a modest sequential increase in GGR relative to June, while the calendar is favorable this year with one extra Saturday and one extra Sunday. This is important given the growing disparity in GGR trends between midweek and weekend days,” stated analyst Grant Govertsen. He added: “These positive factors are likely to at least be partially offset by some number of delayed trips to Macau as customers choose to wait for the opening of Wynn Palace.” “June 2016’s new five-year record low average daily revenue further weakens the consensus’ argument for GGR stabilisation/recovery ahead of the new property openings in the second half of 2016,” stated Daiwa Securities Group Inc in a Friday note. Analysts Jamie Soo, Adrian Chan and Jennifer Wu added: “June’s reported GGR was lacklustre and without substantial indicators arguing for potential improvement in July/August as typical of the summer season. The current demand base does not look encouraging against the new opening of Wynn Palace and the Parisian which will add 13 percent more new hotel rooms to the market (this represents the largest magnitude of incremental new capacity increase to be introduced in the past 30-plus months).” According to a Friday note from Telsey Advisory Group LLC analysts David Katz and Brian Davis, not all data coming out of Macau is bad. “Company management teams continue to suggest that there is some actual improvement in mass play offset by declines in VIP, which provides for a positive profitability mix shift,” they noted. http://www.ggrasia.com/macau-ggr-dip-extending-to-2h-but-at-slower-pace-govt/
Possible summer rally in Macau gaming names: DB There is a possibility of a summer rally in Macau gaming stocks, driven by a number of potential catalysts, says a note from Karen Tang of Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. “Since peaking in late March, Macau stock prices have fallen 17 percent as the sector entered a slow season in the second quarter of 2016 with gross gaming revenue (GGR) down 8 percent quarter-on-quarter,” wrote Ms Tang in her analysis carrying Sunday’s date. “In both of the last two years, Macau stocks had short-term summer rallies in July-August as GGR picked up over the summer holiday,” she added. “Note that we are not touting the summer pickup [in demand] as a sign of cyclical recovery. But as seasonality is more prominent this year, we think a strong summer can already give a boost to investor sentiments,” wrote Ms Tang. Read More: http://www.ggrasia.com/possible-summer-rally-in-macau-gaming-names-db/
This is what drove the price for the Casino's in Macau today. This would reflect not only WYNN but MPEL, LVS, and MGM but MGM barely moved the needle as they have the least exposure in Macau NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are up 5.43% to $94.62 on heavy trading volume late Monday afternoon as the first 10 days of July indicate a positive trend for revenue in China's gambling hub Macau. "According to our industry sources, based on gaming play for the first 10 days of July, gross gaming revenues in Macau for the month is estimated to be tracking up approximately 8.2% year-over-year," David Katz, an analyst at Telsey Advisory, wrote in a note cited by CNBC.com. The results are "well ahead of the previous trends" that showed an 11% decline, Katz added. UBS similarly mentioned a "strong start to July," according to CNBC.com. https://www.thestreet.com/story/136...ck-higher-on-upbeat-macau-gaming-revenue.html
Closed out my $WYNN position. Bought at 88 with the goal of 95. Happened way quicker than I expected.
Gaming continues the run on Macau July numbers with the aid a strong market rally. MGM joins the party today
Casino Stocks Rally as Gambling Revenues in Macau Well Ahead of Previous Trends in July Casino and Gaming stocks received a boost Monday after a number of reports suggested strong gaming revenues in Macau, China’s gambling mecca, in July. CNBC has reported that several firms have suggested results from the first 10 days of July were “well ahead of the previous trends.” On Monday, Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Wynn Resorts, Limited posted gains of 4.06 and 4.85 percent, respectively. Register with us now for your free membership and gain access to our Casinos stock reports at: www.rdinvesting.com. “According to our industry sources, based on gaming play for the first 10 days of July, gross gaming revenues in Macau for the month is estimated to be tracking up approximately 8.2 percent year-over-year,” Telsey Advisory analyst David Katz said in a research note Monday, according to CNBC. http://news.investornetwork.com/201...ad-of-previous-trends-in-july/?1=1&1468414332 Today down with a weak market
Gaming making a rebound this morning from WYNN's downgrade yesterday. As there has been bullish calls on MPEL, there gives expectation Macau may be making the turn off the bottom but that still remains to be seen.
Seat capacity better than last year but not at the 2007 level yet. As seat capacity grows so will LVS, MGM, WYNN, and BYD. Seat capacity at McCarran grows by 1.4M; more gates planned http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/aviation/seat-capacity-mccarran-grows-14m-more-gates-planned
This could be a boost for Macau mass play. It was nickel machines that used to drive revs back in the old Vegas days Macau regulator hints new machine games welcome http://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-hints-new-machine-games-welcome/ Fridays Close
I don't think this was unexpected but as the Casino's have moved more away from VIP to mass gaming and it was down slightly YOY. Macau VIP revenue down 16 pct year-on-year in 2Q http://www.ggrasia.com/macau-vip-revenue-down-16-pct-year-on-year-in-2q/
I can't post a screen shot today but gaming is up as the broader markets are taking a big hit. WYNN leads the pack are the bulls are targeting LVS according to option monster.
