Looks like all the so called...."experts"....are once again on the way to being.....WRONG. November retail sales surprise Wall Street https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-retail-sales-surprise-wall-street-133538943.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "November retail sales posted surprise growth on Thursday, underscoring how the US consumer remains in better position than many have feared. Retail sales grew 0.3% in November, according to Census Bureau data. Economists had expected a 0.1% decline. October retail sales had posted a 0.2% decline. November sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.6% compared to estimates for a 0.2% decrease compiled by Bloomberg. Eight of the 13 categories highlighted in the release saw increases from a month ago. Sales at food services and drinking places increased 1.6% while sporting goods picked up 1.3%. Meanwhile, sales at gasoline stations fell 2.9% while miscellaneous store retail sales dropped 2%. The November report is the latest in a string of economic data that has surprised to the upside in a year that started with many predicting a recession. Still, November's slim gains reflect a slowdown from what was a blowout summer of spending for American consumers. "The strength in November followed a weak reading in October, so real consumption growth is still tracking lower in Q4 than in Q3," Oxford Economics lead US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a research note on Thursday. "We expect a continued slowdown in the labor market and the drag from elevated interest rates to weigh on spending growth heading into 2024." One analyst, though, read Thursday's report as a sign the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as quickly as markets anticipate. "The resilience of the consumer provides credibility to the Fed achieving a soft landing but should also be a signal to markets that the Fed is not likely to cut rates as quickly and as much as the markets now have priced in,” Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a research note on Thursday. “The stronger economic activity remains, the slower inflation declines, and the slower the Fed responds with rate cuts.” In a press conference Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the risk. Strong economic growth is "not itself a problem," Powell said, noting that it only poses a dilemma if "it makes it difficult to achieve our goals." He explained that robust growth could keep the labor market strong and put upward pressure on inflation, making it harder to get to the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. That could mean rates stay higher for longer. It "could even mean we need to hike again," he said." MY COMMENT From what I see the Holiday shopping numbers are going to be good. All the negative predictions will simply NOT happen....as usual. The so called "experts".....might be able to get something right if they would get out of their little Washington DC bubble and go out into the real world once in a while. These people live and work in one big echo chamber and exhibit no ability to generate any sort of original thinking or ideas.
This event will contribute to some small amount of turmoil in the markets. Nothing that will matter to the average retail investor....however. Friday’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 rebalance to reflect concerns over concentration risk https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/14/fri...reflect-concerns-over-concentration-risk.html
BUMMER......the typical mid morning weakness....has erased much of the early gains that we were seeing today.
They just can't help to not make something out of nothing. Case in point: The very tail-end of the article has this: Market concentration is nothing new: concerns over market concentration have been for around a long time. For example, Phil Mackintosh and Robert Jankiewicz from Nasdaq recently noted that the weight of the five largest companies in the S&P 500 was also around 25% back in the 1970s. A whole article acting like this is a new form of fear and wants to push the narrative of how far away from normal we have gotten. Only to close by saying...Not really.
You said it Smokie. They are all madly searching for new fear mongering issues right now. We have seen two of them being floated today: 1. Corporate bond refinancing. 2. The re-balancing of the Indexes. These are not issues that anyone will care about. It will be interesting to see what else they come up with. By the way......who is the......"THEY"....... that come up with this stuff? I have no idea. Some of it may come from speculative traders pushing various narratives to try to boost their trades. BUT...other than that.....I have no idea who...."they"....are.
I am looking forward to my COSTCO earnings today. I am sure they will probably be good. The stock has gone up a lot over the past week or two....so I would not be surprised to see it drop back a bit after earnings come out. Other than the COST earnings.....I dont see anything at all happening today in terms of news or drama. All in all....a basic market day today. Thank goodness the FED is now done and we are free of their "stuff" till later in January. Looks like the little mid morning market weakness is over....all the big averages have now gone back up some.
I also noticed a push higher here lately of the small and mid-cap. I think this is a good sign overall for the market.
Yeah......I do think the small cap and mid cap are most of the gains today. When I last looked most of the big cap tech was down today. Now with the current FED announcements it is time for the bull market to broaden out.
Some random observations: Gold and silver are way up today. Why? I have no idea since I dont really follow them. The Ten Year Yield is dropping like a rock.....now at 3.90%
YUP !!! what he said Hi Guys Brings me back to the days right after the Covid crash , man that was fun riding the rebound after snatching up all the shares from the panic sellers. Just my .02 worth , but I have noticed over the past couple of days , maybe week, that the money is flowing out into the other sectors of the market , and that the big 10 have just been sitting or actually coming down the past couple days. The big guys AMZN down .42 % MGK down .38 % Googl down 1.03% QQQ even XLK down .15% MSFT down 1.94% but XHB (homebuilders) up 4.87% VBR (smallcaps) up 2.84% VDE (energy) up 3.11% Draw your own conclusions but , to me it looks like investors are gaining confidence in the market , and feeling comfortable enough to go a little deeper into the speculation sectors. And tech is falling back just a little. One notable exception in tech is PLUG , I picked up a block of shares about a month ago, (they were cheap) (should have got 10 times as many) Man the last couple of days they have looked really good yesterday up 10+% , today they are up 12.88% as of now , refresh up 13.23% now I've been doing a remodel (complete flooring, all appliances, windows, tile bathroom) the past couple months, and It's getting old, leave in the dark, get home in the dark, and grey all the hours in between. Well I have to go pick out a sink to go with the new countertops, off to Lowes and Home Depot , my new homes away from home ..........................ARGH And WXYZ thanks for advice on the river walk area , it was fantastic ! And "Thank You" to the guys in charge of the market the last month !! KEEP IT UP !!
You are welcome oldmanram.....I hope you got to see the Alamo while you were at the River Walk. I remember when I was a kid...the River Walk (San Antonio) was very dangerous, especially at night. It was kind of run down and a sketchy, dark, out of the way area. The whole downtown area and the River Walk were all cleaned up and renovated for the Worlds Fair......Hemisfair.....in 1968. Since 1968 the whole downtown area of San Antonio is basically a giant convention center. Most of the businesses are out of the downtown area along Loop 410 and other areas. That is why the downtown area is pretty much unchanged from decades ago.....when I was a kid growing up in San Antonio in the 1950's and 1960's.
Turned out to be a pretty bad day for all the big cap tech stocks today. I guess the sensitivity to interest rates for the big cap tech companies only works in one direction. BUT....I dont begrudge the mid cap and small cap stocks having a good day. We need the bull market to widen out and increase it's strength. Any pause in the big cap tech companies is just temporary.
I see this little story outlining the cause for the MSFT drop today. What's Going On With Microsoft Stock Thursday? Microsoft halts LinkedIn's Azure migration, a shift from 2019 plans, amid rivalry with Amazon AWS. Azure grows 29% despite LinkedIn pause, buoyed by OpenAI's use of Microsoft's cloud services. https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36239319/whats-going-on-with-microsoft-stock-thursday MY COMMENT I say....WTF. This is a crazy reason to punish MSFT today....after all.....they OWN Linkedin. So obviously they can put them on Azure....in spite of any tech issues....any time they want. This sort of short term drop in a stock makes me CRAZY.
I ended with a small loss today. Compliments of mainly MSFT being down by over $8 today (-2.25%). I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.57%. A meaningless day today as my particular stocks fell out of favor for a day. Looking forward to the end of the week tomorrow.
Kind of an interesting day overall. As mentioned/discussed above the small/mid cap continued to make noticeable progress. Quite a few different looks going on today in different areas. I ended up with a decent gain to add to the week so far.
Good news for house hunters. Mortgage rates fall below 7% for the first time in months with experts believing more declines to come The average rate on the 30-year mortgage drops to 6.95%, the lowest since August https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mort...elieving-more-declines-to-come-170032406.html MY COMMENT If rates keep going down it will also be good news for existing home owners. A little drop in the rates will trigger a buying frenzy and a good likelihood of value increases for existing home owners.
COST earnings for WXYZ. Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Operating Results And Announces A Special Cash Dividend Of $15 Per Share
Looks good Smokie. I will look for additional info and what the expectations were. I like that free money in the form of a Special Dividend. It will just reinvest. I also saw this early info. https://qz.com/costco-fiscal-q1-earnings-snapshot-1851100924 Looks like a mild BEAT.
Here is a bit more info: Costco tops quarterly sales estimates on steady grocery demand https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-tops-quarterly-sales-estimates-212040198.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) -Costco Wholesale surpassed market expectations for quarterly sales on Thursday, as more customers turning to its stores for cheaper groceries and essentials offset slowing demand for discretionary items. The membership-only retail chain's shares, which have risen 38% this year, were up 1.7% in extended trading. Costco has increased its sales and market share thanks to its strategy of maintaining low prices on basic essentials and gas as well as a devoted membership base that benefits from incentives including testing of free samples and a yearly 2% reward on qualified purchases at its warehouses. The one-stop retailer has seen sales surge for its consumable categories like fresh food and sundries as well as its private-label brand Kirkland Signature, even as non-food categories including sports goods and office supplies have come under pressure due to persistent inflation. Total revenue at the company rose to $57.8 billion in the first quarter, compared to analysts' estimates of $57.72 billion, according to LSEG data. Net income attributable to Costco rose to $1.59 billion, or $3.58 per share, in the quarter ended Nov. 26, from $1.36 billion, or $3.07 per share, a year earlier." MY COMMENT This is about all I can find at the moment. Looks good,.....now to see how this all shakes out in terms of expectations and the earnings conference call today.
The rest of the story for COSTCO. Costco beats Q1 earnings estimates with a potential membership fee hike looming https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cost...al-membership-fee-hike-looming-220402240.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco (COST) sported some bulked up earnings for its fiscal 2024 Q1 results. For the quarter, Costco reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.58, higher than Wall Street expectations of $3.41. Revenue came in at $57.8 billion, compared to expectations of $57.71 billion, per Bloomberg data. Same-store sales, excluding gas and foreign exchange, came in lower than expected, dragged down by its performance in the US. Total same store sales jumped 3.8% last quarter, compared to 4.30% expected. In the US, same store sales growth came in at 2.0%, compared to the 2.77% expected. Canada beat estimates with a 6.4% same store sales growth, while international stores also reported a higher than expected 11.2% increase. The wholesale giant announced a special cash dividend of $15 per share, with an aggregate payment amount of $6.7 billion. Costco's shares are up 39% year to date, handily beating S&P 500's (^GSPC) 23% gain. Cowen analyst Oliver Chen told Yahoo Finance LIVE that Costco is one of its top picks, calling its private label Kirkland "pretty legendary." While Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh removed the retailer from its top pick rating, "due to valuation following significant outperformance lately." The earnings rundown: Here's what Costco reported in its fiscal first quarter versus Wall Street estimates, according to Bloomberg data: Net sales: $57.8 billion versus $57.71 billion expected Adjusted EPS: $3.58 versus $3.41 expected Same-store sales growth: 3.8% versus 4.30% expected U.S. same-store sales growth: 2.0% versus 2.77% expected Canada same-store sales growth: 6.4% versus 5.27% expected Other international: 11.2% versus 9.24% expected E-commerce sales growth: 6.30% versus 6.10% expected This earnings results come as CEO Craig Jelinek is stepping down from the helm, effective January 1, 2024. Ron Vachris, who has served as COO and president since February 2022, will take the top spot. At the end of November, Costco lost one of its longtime board members, Charlie Munger. The famed Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) investor has served as a director since 1997, and had long expressed his love for the business. "He was a legend to me. A tremendous asset to Costco,” Jelinek told Yahoo Finance. Will Costco raise membership fees? Wall Street thinks it's coming soon. Membership fees, a key revenue stream for the wholesale retailer, came in at $1.08 billion, less than Wall Street estimates of $1.09 billion. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the company brought in $1.51 billion in membership fee revenue. While there was no indication of a price hike yet, it could happen soon. The company raises prices every five years and seven months on average. Costco last raised membership fees in June 2017, but announced the change that March. "We believe a membership fee increase will likely come next summer," UBS Analyst Michael Lasser wrote in a note to clients, citing that it did not happen in the previous fiscal year as to not "further strain its customers, whose budgets were already pressured by inflation." Now that inflation has moderated, "Costco may will be more likely to increase its membership fees." Costco Gold Star membership costs $60 per year, while an Executive Membership goes for $120. At the end of Q1, there were 72.0 million paid household members, up 7.6% from last year, and 129.5 million cardholders, up 7.1%. On the earnings call, CFO Richard Galanti said the company is seeing "consistent growth." In Q4, the company had 71 million paid household members and 127.9 million cardholders." MY COMMENT A good BEAT by Costco. The only soft spot....same store sales in the USA a bit lighter than expected. No doubt this will be the focus tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see the stock down due to this single item. Although....it is up by over $10 in after hours trading right now. NOW.....SPLIT THE DARN STOCK.
