Lots of people on here own NVDIA. I like this little article on the future of the company for investors. I do believe and agree that the stock is being disrespected lately with the current trading range. Why Nvidia’s Current Valuation is a Hidden Gem for Investors Buy NVDA stock, as valuation concerns work in your favor https://investorplace.com/market360...rent-valuation-is-a-hidden-gem-for-investors/
A lesson in compounding.......with a little baseball thrown in. You Are Not Shohei Ohtani. (Or Bobby Bonilla.) Personal finance lessons from quirky baseball contracts. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/you-are-not-shohei-ohtani-or-bobby-bonilla (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "I mean of course you aren’t Shohei Ohtani, unless you are, in which case, hi, big fan. But for the rest of you, is it just me, or is there an entire cottage industry within personal finance dedicated to slicing and dicing the incoming Los Angeles Dodger’s funky contract in hopes of determining a) whether it is better for the slugger or the Dodgers and b) whether it is worth anywhere close to the headline $700 million. Maybe the industry is full of mad baseball fans like me. And maybe everyone is on to something, because there actually are some weird investment implications for us normies, just not the ones you are reading about. First, for the uninitiated, Ohtani spent the past few years winning hearts and blowing minds as a starting pitcher and designated hitter for the California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. His contract ended after the 2023 season, vaulting him into free agency and a high likelihood of signing the biggest Major League Baseball contract of all time, partly because he will remain one-of-a-kind awesome if his recent elbow ligament replacement doesn’t kill his pitching career, and partly because of inflation. He did just that, hopping up the 405 and east on the 10 to join the Dodgers for the next decade.[ii] The headline contract value is $700 million, but the vast majority of this is deferred, because Ohtani wants to win. So instead of being an albatross that prevents the Dodgers from signing other big names in the here and now, he is taking $2 million a year while he is playing, followed by $68 million in each of the next 10 years after that. $20 million plus $680 million equals $700 million, math done, jaws dropped. For many, this brought to mind former Pirates star and Mets disappointment Bobby Bonilla, who had a few ok years in blue and orange before being released in 2000 with $5.9 million and one season left on his contract. Like the Dodgers now, the Mets wanted some payroll flexibility. They also had money invested with one Bernard Madoff, who like totally promised he would get them steady investment returns with no downside ever. So instead of paying out that final $5.9 million in 2000, they agreed to defer it with 8% interest until 2011, then pay it out in equal annual installments from 2011 through 2035. Despite the infamous collapse of Madoff’s Ponzi scheme and all the money lost, the Mets were true to their word. By 2011, an 8% annual return had grown the $5.9 million to $29.8 million. Divide it by 25, and you get Bobby Bonilla cashing a cool $1.19 million every July 1. In baseball circles, it is a national holiday, Bobby Bonilla Day. But deferral aside, A is nothing like B. Bonilla made a rational financial decision banked on the power of compound growth.[iii] No market volatility to think about for the first 11 years, no 2000 – 2002 or 2007 – 2009 bear markets to navigate, just a cool, steady 8%. I did the math once, and if you presume he invests his entire gross paycheck every July 1 (in my fantasy math land there are no taxes) in the S&P 500 and compare that to a hypothetical investment of $5.9 million in January 2000, he made the right choice. Yet this is not an argument for dollar cost averaging—just a reminder that compound interest adds up bigtime. Anyway, Ohtani is sort of doing the opposite? He is just getting paid for 10 years of service across the next 20 years and taking most of the cash on the back end, with no interest. So, as many have pointed out, he is actually going to lose purchasing power to inflation. Some analysis, using a 3% inflation rate, argues that once you adjust for this, the contract value is more in the neighborhood of $460 million in present dollars.[iv] Where Bonilla reaped compound interest, Ohtani is basically giving the Dodgers an interest-free loan. As an Astros fan, I don’t see why one would ever give the Dodgers such courtesy, but I guess if you think it will win ballgames? The interesting thing about all of this is that if you do a date-range Google search for Bobby Bonilla and inflation in 2000 and 2011, you get barely anyone discussing the potential for inflation to start eating the purchasing power of those fixed annual payments once they begin. And eat them it has: July 2023’s payout was worth $880,000 in July 2011 dollars, a -26% reduction. (Good thing he had that up-front compound growth to counteract that.) But now, with Ohtani, the inflation argument is everywhere, alongside a bunch of speculating about California’s future tax rates and the potential sunsetting of 2017’s federal income tax cuts. Point being that if taxes eat well over half Ohtani’s future payments and inflation eats another chunk, this is probably a very bad deal. (To say nothing of the slow-motion demise of regional sports networks’ potentially torpedoing MLB revenues and forcing teams to revalue contracts in the long term.) And on paper, maybe it would be for you or me, workaday folks whose best road to financial security is investing for the long haul. Getting paid now, investing it and letting the market do the heavy lifting—with lower capital gains tax rates applying to future gains—would probably be better than parking my salary for a decade-plus and hoping future inflation and governments don’t eat it. But I am not Shohei Ohtani. I did not make over $40 million playing baseball last year. I don’t have tens of millions of dollars’ worth of annual endorsements to pay the bills. My pro/con list doesn’t have “Win World Series?” on one side and “Inflation and Taxes” on the other. I have my own financial situation, goals and needs, and what is right for me is right for me. Mostly, I just see all of this as a sign of sentiment and how much damage inflation has done to the national psyche. Looking back 10, 20 years ago, no one saw these things through an inflation lens. Now everyone does. Investors are fighting the last war, as they always do, fixating on a key sour story from the last bear market and looking for a repeat around every corner. Read any of the Ohtani inflation-adjustment analyses, and you will see that while they penciled in the long-term average inflation rate, they also speculated about a return of hot inflation eroding it even further. It is just like when everyone obsessed over new COVID variants and restrictions in late 2020 and 2021, or the hunt for “the next subprime” in Dubai, muni debt and Southern Europe after the 2007 – 2009 global financial crisis. To me, this is good news—well, for investors, maybe not for fans of teams opposing the Dodgers. One, it means there is still some fear baked into markets, which means plenty of positive surprise potential. Two, it means sentiment is running its normal early bull market course, reminding us that things aren’t so different this time and are really never different." MY COMMENT I am sure in the Ohtani contract the focus during the negotiations was on the actual......."present value"....... of the contract which is basically an annuity or similar to a structured settlement. In any negotiation for any sort of compensation that is not immediate.....the key financial concern is....."present value". That is the only way to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
For anyone that is NOT an investor....yet.....I invite you to join us in 2024. There is no better way to meet the financial needs of your family over the long term. NO special ability or knowledge is required. it is not "math" or "computer skills". Mostly it is simple common sense. You dont have to do all sorts of research and homework. MAINLY...it takes determination....a little bit of courage.....and drive to better yourself. YOU....can do it. YOU can join us as an investor for the long term. The best way to start.....a monthly or weekly investment in an SP500 Index ETF from your pay check....every week or every month. You can find a SP500 ETF at ALL the big brokers....Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc, etc. All you have to do is call one of them and they will walk you through the process of opening an account and setting up your investment. You dont have to have thousands of dollars to invest. You can get started with ONLY $25 or $50 per month....whatever you can afford. DO IT FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. Take that first step. The new year is the time to GRAB YOUR FUTURE. PLEASE......anyone considering starting new as an investor.....you are welcome to post here any time and ask any question you might have. EVERYONE on here would be very happy to answer questions and help you get started. JOIN US.
One thought about diversification and how it applies to building wealth. Usually we think of diversification either as: - x% stocks, y% bonds (doing this really limits your gains in my opinion), z% whatever. We're thinking in terms of some % in "safe" investments OR - 100% stocks of which x% energy, y% technology, etc. We're aiming for high gains but avoiding having all our eggs in one basket. One though can also think of diversification in terms of human behavior. I've explained my investing strategy before and that strategy has practical boundaries, namely my own strengths and weaknesses. My strengths limit my losses and my weaknesses limit my gains. My actual performance hinges on controlling my weaknesses and letting my strengths run. Since that's easier said than done (weaknesses are weaknesses for a reason), I limit my direct investing to my self-directed IRA of which I'm not contributing anything to right now. I also invest a % of my emergency fund. But I'm also putting 15% of my salary into my 401K and my employer contributes another 4%. I'm chosen aggressive funds to invest that in but beyond that, I'm not in charge of anything. The fund manager is in charge. This mitigates to some degree the mistakes I might make were I in charge of that money. This is a new 401K so it will take about 6 years to get it to a size that will account for about 25%-33% of my retirement funds. Then I'll lower the contribution to 4% of my salary (to keep getting the employer match) and increase my contributions to a self-directed IRA (existing IRA or open a ROTH). I hope the results of this diversification are: - a healthy return everywhere - mitigation of my weaknesses. In other words, I can only do so much self-damage. Thoughts? G
HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVE.....I guess this is an appropriate post. Official Santa Claus Rally Starts Tomorrow! https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/737336032122552320/official-santa-claus-rally-starts-tomorrow (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It is not a trading strategy; it is an indicator. To wit: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” Yesterday’s selloff was a great setup. Just what the Santa Claus Rally needed. The Street has been buzzing about the Santa Claus Rally for three months now. Most still get it wrong. It’s not the yearend rally, the Q4 rally that runs from Halloween through January. Yes, November, December and January are the best three months of the year, but they are not the Santa Claus Rally. Santa Claus Rally was devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in the 1973 Stock Trader’s Almanac. The “Santa Claus Rally” is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the first 2 of New Year. This year it begins on the open on December 22 and lasts until the second trading day of 2024, January 3. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%. It is not a trading strategy; it is an indicator. Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”" MY COMMENT A little market history. Not that anyone cares about history pre-dominant-internet era. We all know that history started about year 2000 when the internet became dominant and ubiquitous and there is nothing but a big blank void before that time.
AND....speaking of the potential SANTA RALLY in the week ahead. Stocks sit near record highs as 2023 trading wraps up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...aps-up-what-to-watch-this-week-135128848.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US stock market will enter the final trading week of 2023 with the whole story coming together. Inflation data out Friday showed the Federal Reserve continues to close in on its goal of returning inflation to 2% and puts the central bank on the path towards cutting interest rates. Recession signals remain few and far between. Interest rates have moderated from decade-plus highs reached this fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) are on the doorstep of record highs. And the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is up over 40% this year. In the week ahead, whether the stock market's rally will result in a record for the S&P 500 — the Dow hit a record last week — should be the highest drama to face investors this week amid a light economic schedule and a barren earnings slate. Data on home prices Tuesday morning and Thursday's report on initial jobless claims will be the key economic updates on the schedule. No major companies are expected to report earnings. Markets will be closed for Christmas on Monday. Stocks have rallied across the board this year with the S&P 500 and Dow nearing record highs as the year comes to an end. Inflation nears the Fed's target On Friday, inflation data showed the Fed taking a crucial step towards returning inflation to its 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed prices on a "core" basis, which strips out food and energy and is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 3.2% over last year in November. This was the slowest annual increase since April 2021. But slicing this data more finely reveals the central bank has more or less reached its goal. On a six-month annualized basis, "core" PCE came in at 1.9% in November. "This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualized pace of below 2% over the past six months, this final flurry of hawkishness isn’t fooling anyone," wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics, in a note on Friday. "There is mounting evidence that the post-pandemic inflation scare is over and we expect interest rates to be cut significantly next year," Hunter added. That the Fed will be moving to quickly cut rates next year has, in part, been supporting the market's rally in 2023. And while many investors will remember this year for the AI-related hype that reignited the tech trade after a dismal 2022, the second half of this year has been all about rates. An autumn swoon in the US stock market coincided with a surge in Treasury yields to 16-year highs as doubts about slowing inflation pressures — and, in turn, doubts that Fed policy would ease from 22-year highs — weighed on markets. Recent data, along with the Fed's forecasts, put to rest many of these fears. Chasing 2024 As the stock market has pushed toward record highs to cap 2023, forecasts for 2024 have already become stale. Last week, the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs revised their 2024 S&P 500 price target up to 5,100 from 4,700. When many on Wall Street began rolling out their year-ahead forecasts in mid-November, the market wasn't yet convinced of the path forward for inflation, the economy, and the Fed. Now, we round out the year with a broad consensus that inflation will ease, the economy will continue to grow, and the Fed will cut rates. In other words, a "soft landing" has become the base case powering markets higher. And as we round out two of the more adventurous years in recent market history, the team at Bespoke Investment Group on Friday flagged a few market stats that remind us history will likely relegate these post-pandemic spasms to the dustbin. On Nov. 30, 2023, the S&P 500 closed at 4,567.80. On Nov. 30, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 4,567.00. In between, of course, investors endured the S&P 500's worst year in a generation and are on the cusp of seeing the index clinch one of its best five years since the financial crisis. But the further we move past this two-year period where stocks "went nowhere," the less we'll remember of the drama that filled both moments. In this same vein, Bespoke noted that during 2022's sell-off, the seven largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 to start the year lost a collective $4.9 trillion. This year, those same seven stocks have increased their collective market cap by the same $4.9 trillion. As 2024 approaches, Wall Street forecasts reveal investors will enter the new year with what we'll call cautious optimism. The S&P 500 gains, on average, about 9% per year; most forecasters are looking for something closer to a 5% gain next year. But as former Yahoo Finance managing editor and TKer publisher Sam Ro has noted, the stock market rarely sees an "average" year. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has gone up 15% or more 33 times. Over the same period, the index has lost ground 15 times. Against this backdrop, it seems clear Wall Street is again setting itself up to be wrong about where stocks land at the end of next year. But as Bespoke's data makes clear, aiming for precision in a given year is a fool's errand, anyway — in time, the drama of any one year's gain or loss will be flattened. And the arc of market history bends one way, in the end. MY COMMENT NOTHING in the way of the markets next week. It will simply be a very shallow and slow holiday week with nothing to move the markets other than market bias.
"F" the experts here is my view of what we will see in the markets next year. The experts will as usual be negative about earnings....and....will be wrong as usual. The media and professionals will STILL try to push the FED and interest rate BS......and.....as usual many will fall for it. We will see at least one or two corrections over the year which is absolutely.....NORMAL. MY...prediction for the SP500 by year end 2024.....it will be UP by between 12% and 18%......with my most "probable guess"being......+15%. A carryover from 2023....with many people deciding to being their money back into stocks and funds from the sidelines. Yes.....likely to be another HAPPY year for investors. As usual......watch out for the dreaded BLACK SWAN.....most likely connected to either China/Taiwan.....or.....the election with all the court cases and insanity that surrounds Trump and the Trump haters. My 2024 year end target for the SP500......5500.
Articles that I like today. Sorry...you have to click and read......well worth the time to do so. History Says the Nasdaq Will Surge in 2024: 2 Stock-Split Stocks to Buy Before It Does https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-says-nasdaq-surge-2024-122000999.html If I Could Buy Just 1 "Magnificent Seven" AI Stock in 2024, This Would Be It https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-buy-just-1-magnificent-103700087.html History Says This Is the Best Way to Invest With Stocks at All-Time Highs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-says-best-way-invest-101900374.html Forget FAANG and GAMMA, the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks - including Tesla and Nvidia - now dominate the market https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-faang-gamma-magnificent-7-192331285.html Dow Jones Giants Apple, Microsoft Lead Five Stocks Near Buy Points https://finance.yahoo.com/m/325f22f3-a0e6-3123-915a-68a3a33c7308/dow-jones-giants-apple-.html Investors favour India over China as world’s second biggest economy stutters https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-favour-india-over-china-120852717.html I could read and post these all day.
Thanks WXYZ. Speaking of buying on the downturn, I did th If you're right about people getting back I to the market now, they are too late by at least several months. It's funny how people know what to do (buy low and sell high) but frequently do the opposite.
As mentioned previously I'm up 29% on the year. Now I would definitely be well into the 30%+ had I kept my early position in NVDA and not sold it in January. It was about 25% of my portfolio at the time. Now I could moan and groan about the missed opportunity but I'm not. I'm 29% ahead of where I was a year ago and that's good. Do I try to learn from experience to grow that 29% to a 30% or better next year? Sure. But it's important to be satisfied with what you did and not be whining about what you didn't do. Same thing at work. People bitch about the size of their Christmas bonus. If you got only 500 bucks, you're still 500 ahead of where you were and you didn't lift a finger to get there.
I have a minor edit from my post the other day. The winning portfolio in my collection was ................................... THE WIFE !!! just checked hers, (I don't check it as often as others) YTD Dec 24th 39.83% Made up of 100% ETF's weighted as follows VGT 28.75% VOOG 22.88% VUG 22.74% VTI 17.13% MGK 6.65% XSW 1.11% This is truly a set it and forget it portfolio, all dividends are set to be REINVESTED. I actually think I checked it about 10 times during the year. From my Family to Yours we wanted to say "Merry Christmas" May it be a peaceful one, filled with Joy and Happiness May all your wishes come true for "You and your families"
A nice little open today.......as we continue with the UP bias of the markets. NOTHING going on today or this week. We are in a little holiday gap between the new year and Christmas. Fine with me....days like this that are shallow and with most professionals on vacation can add up.
Here is the day today. Stock market news today: Stocks rise as 2023 trading wraps up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-rise-as-2023-trading-wraps-up-143135086.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose on Tuesday morning, riding the momentum of a year-end rally in which hopes of a soft landing are strengthening and more optimistic reads on 2024 are taking hold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged just over the flatline during morning trading. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.1% while the the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 0.3%. All three major indexes are up by double digits for the year, with the Nasdaq leading the way, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 40%. The surge in stocks arrives as Wall Street expects the Fed to soon end its tightening campaign, in a striking signal that the central bank's battle against inflation has taken a decisive and positive turn. The year began with many market observers worried about pricing pressures and the potentially destructive consequences of the Fed raising interest rates. But as the final days of the year have arrived, the narrative has shifted to talk of the Fed cutting rates, to surprise at how much inflation has cooled, and to the resilience of the job market. Many market watchers thought employers would have been pummeled as a result of the central bank trying to tamp down the economy. But unemployment remains below 4%. 2024 will bring its own challenges. The recession that many thought was coming this year could still muscle its way in. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the timing of rate cutting isn't set in stone, and if the economy comes roaring back, inviting yet another climb in inflation, more rate hikes or a delay in cuts could be the next phase of the Fed's policy action. "Most of 2023 has been about the resilient consumer and waiting for a recession which never came, but we think 2024 is going to be much more about inflation going back to target in a sustainable way or inflation getting 'stuck' and forcing the Fed to cut much less than the market expects," said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. In corporate news, shares of Intel (INTC) rose 2% to kick off the day after the company confirmed it secured more than $3 billion in incentives from the Israeli government to expand to wafer fabrication int he country." MY COMMENT As you can see from the above there is nothing happening today or this week. How stocks do will simply depend on the fundamentals of each company. Of course general market bias and direction is nicely to the UP side.
Here is the housing news. October home prices post biggest gain of 2023, despite higher mortgage rates, says S&P Case-Shiller https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/sp-case-shiller-october-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-of-2023.html "Key Points Home prices rose 4.8% nationally in October compared with October 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. That’s a jump from the 4% annual increase in September and marks the strongest annual gain seen in 2023. Among the top 20 cities, Detroit reported the largest year-over-year gain in home prices at 8.1% in October" AND US Home Prices Extend Records, Rising for a Ninth Straight Month https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-prices-extend-records-140000413.html MY COMMENT See the entire article for more detail. Current owners of real property continue to do well as prices are holding up. In my view there is a HUGE amount of pent-up demand. If we see some FED cuts and mortgage rates get down below 6%....I believe there will be an explosion in home demand, multiple offers, and a big jump in prices. BOTTOM LINE......owning a house is a BIG part of any persons net worth and just as important as owning stocks and funds. Not to mention that it locks in your payment........and......provides lifestyle security for the owner. A definite necessary component of any financial plan.
This little article is incredibly simple.....yet....it reflects the TRUTH behind the quest for financial security. In the end it is all about long term thinking and discipline. Of course for us humans....long term thinking and discipline are incredibly difficult to achieve. I’m a CNBC personal finance reporter — here’s the best money advice I heard this year https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-best-money-advice-i-heard-this-year-as-a-cnbc-reporter.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points As a personal finance reporter at CNBC, most days of the year, I’m at my desk talking to people about money. Here’s some of the advice that has stuck with me. As a personal finance reporter at CNBC, most days of the year, I’m at my desk talking to people about money. Although the general topic stays the same, so many of the conversations I have with sources leave me with a new perspective. When I got the idea to do a roundup of some of the most interesting and helpful money insights I’d heard in 2023, I knew right away the points I wanted to bring back. Maybe that’s one definition of good advice? Guidance you may ignore but can’t forget? Well, here are some of the ideas and recommendations that stuck. 1. ‘When we don’t talk about money, we’re shielding ourselves from knowing reality’ “I find people are more private about money than their sex life,” psychoanalyst Orna Guralnik, who stars on the Showtime documentary series “Couples Therapy,” told me in May. It can take years of therapy sessions, Guralnik said, for people to get around to the subject. I was amazed by that! Money is an unavoidable daily part of our lives, and so how could we not talk about it? Even more interesting was how Guralnik articulated the dangers of this avoidance. “Money is a very important point of contact with reality,” she said. “People can have all sorts of fantasies and ideas about themselves. But money is feedback from the real world. So, when we don’t talk about money, we’re shielding ourselves from knowing reality.” This really resonated. I’ve heard friends say they’ve gone months without checking their credit card balances, and I’ve noticed how I always underestimate my spending when I draw up a budget. Guralnik pushes people to be more real. “You can’t take care of yourself if you don’t deal with reality,” she said. “We learn from reality. We grow from reality.” 2. How to still have $1 million at 100 Bill Stovall is a stellar example of how keeping expenses in line with income can pay off. At 100, he still has more than $1 million saved. What’s more, throughout his career in the steel industry, he said he never had an annual salary beyond $40,000. But each year he salted away 2% of his income for his old age — and his employer usually matched that. “That compounded over the years,” Stovall said in our November interview. The only debts he ever took on, he said, were for his mortgages. To this day, he looks for discounts at the grocery store and orders the cheaper dishes on restaurant menus. He enjoys following the stock market but almost never buys or sells individual stocks. His life story illustrates the benefits of consistency and frugality, two of the most effective financial habits. “I always lived within my means,” Stovall said. “I’m not a gambler.” 3. Money struggles aren’t just on you When I interviewed Pulitzer-prize winning author Matthew Desmond in March about his new book “Poverty, by America,” we talked about a story from his own childhood. When his father lost his job and the bank took their house, Desmond originally blamed his family for their struggles. “When you’re in the middle of something, you often grasp at the explanation that is closest to you, which is often about shame and guilt,” Desmond said. When he interviewed people facing evictions for his first book, he said they often believed it was their fault they were losing their homes. “But I think it’s the sociologist’s job, to quote C. Wright Mills, to turn a personal problem into a political one,” Desmond said. “Millions of people are facing this every year. This is not on you.” Desmond’s wisdom applies to so much of the financial hardship people endure today in the U.S. Whether it’s a layoff or food insecurity, understanding when your struggle is the product of a larger societal problem helps you to be less hard on yourself — and hopefully more compassionate with others. 4. Tiny financial changes are powerful I’ll end at the beginning. In January, I interviewed financial experts about the money moves people should make at the start of a new year. I told my sources that I didn’t believe people could make big changes overnight. And so, I asked them, were there small things they could do that would still make a difference? They had a lot of ideas. Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement with Fidelity Investments, provided one example. For someone age 35 who is making $60,000 a year, upping their retirement saving contribution by 1%, or less than $12 a week, could generate an additional $110,000 by retirement, assuming a 7% annual return. More recently, as student loan payments restarted, higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz illustrated the same lesson with paying down debt. If a borrower owed $10,000, and had a 5% interest rate, an additional $50 a month would shave nearly four years off a 10-year repayment timeline. Those numbers have stayed with me, as a reminder of the power of tiny changes we can work toward in the new year. Good luck!" MY COMMENT Small steps lead to big results....if you have the power of time and compounding on your side. The message never changes......lit is all about time and compounding. What....YOU....have to do to take advantage of this is take the first step. Become a long term investor. Even if it is only $25 or $50 per month....it will add up over the long term.
We are still seeing a very good market today with a bit of a gain from the early numbers. LETS MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY.
Here is some early retail numbers. Holiday Spending Increased, Defying Fears of a Decline While the pace of growth slowed, spending stayed strong because of robust job growth and strong wage gains. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/business/economy/christmas-holiday-spending-retail.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Despite lingering inflation, Americans increased their spending this holiday season, early data shows. That comes as a big relief for retailers that had spent much of the year fearing the economy would soon weaken and consumer spending would fall. Retail sales increased 3.1 percent from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. The numbers, released Tuesday, are not adjusted for inflation. Spending increased across many categories, with restaurants experiencing one of the largest jumps, 7.8 percent. Apparel increased 2.4 percent, and groceries also had gains. The holiday sales figures, driven by a healthy labor market and wage gains, suggests that the economy remains strong. The Federal Reserve’s campaign to rein in high inflation by raising interest rates over the last few years has slowed the economy, but many economists believe a so-called soft landing is within reach. “What we’re seeing during this holiday season is very consistent with how we’re thinking about the economy, which is that it’s an economy that is still very much expanding,” said Michelle Meyer, Mastercard’s chief economist. Solid job growth is allowing people to spend more. And even though consumer prices have risen a lot in the last two years, wages have grown faster on the whole. The State of Jobs in the United States Too Few Workers: Employers in Vermont are battling a labor shortage as the local population grows older. The state’s struggles offer an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. Seasonal Hiring: After scrambling to fill out work forces the last few holiday seasons, many retailers are reporting more modest goals for temporary employment this year. Truck Drivers: The trucking industry has complained for years about a dire shortage of drivers. But some women say many companies have made it effectively impossible for them to get those jobs. A Surge in Start-ups: The Covid-19 pandemic hurt the U.S. economy in a lot of ways. But it might have also broken America out of a decades-long entrepreneurial slump. “We’re now entering the period, and we’re seeing it to some extent during the holiday season, where consumers have built up real purchasing power,” Ms. Meyer said. Still spending in categories like electronics and jewelry declined this season. And the rate of growth in spending has moderated from the last couple of years. In 2022, retail sales during the holiday season increased 5.4 percent, according to the National Retail Federation. In 2021, they rose 12.7 percent, the largest percentage increase in at least 20 years. Online sales growth has also slowed in 2023, increasing 6.3 percent compared with 10.6 percent from 2021 to 2022, according to Mastercard. While the economy is strong overall, Americans are being more mindful of how they’re spending, and that discretion shaped the shopping season. Some retailers had expressed concerns in recent months that shoppers appeared glum and fearful about the economy. Walmart and Target noted that shoppers seemed to be waiting for sales before buying, a change from recent years when they spent more freely. “The caution that they’ve taken on their spend and where they’re spending has been really noticeable in the second half of the year, where a lot of customers have been affected, especially lower-income and middle-income” people, said Jessica Ramírez, a retail research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates. In a return to some of the trends that prevailed before the pandemic, many retailers and brands offered promotions. Discounts were in the 30 to 50 percent range, Ms. Ramírez said. But the discounts were more targeted this year than last because fewer companies were saddled with gluts of inventory. The categories that have faced falling sales this year — like electronics, home furnishings and toys — saw some of the biggest discounts leading up to Christmas. Those goods had enjoyed booming sales during the pandemic. Alexan Weir, a 30-year-old mother in Orlando, Fla., said she was pleased to find deals on toys when she bought Christmas gifts for her daughters this month. Among the items she bought at Target were the Asha doll, based on the main character from the Disney movie “Wish”; an Elsa doll from “Frozen”; and a Minnie Mouse kitchen set. With discounts, the items together cost about half as much as their total list prices of $200. “As a parent you’re just trying to make your kids happy. You’re not trying to break the bank,” Ms. Weir said. “I spent a little bit more this year, but at least with the few sales that I received, I can say I was not heartbroken about how much I was spending.” Barbie — whose banner year was fueled by the blockbuster movie — sold particularly well in a year when there wasn’t a breakout toy. The doll and her many accouterments have been selling well at Mary Arnold Toys, a family-owned store on Manhattan’s Upper East Side. And overall sales at the shop have been steady, said Ezra Ishayik, who has run the store for 40 years. “It looks like it is about even with last year — not better, not worse,” Mr. Ishayik said. “The economy looks good to me. It’s decent, it’s OK, people are buying. We are on the high end of the industry so we don’t see any downtrend at all.” But the past few months have been more challenging for Modi Toys. Modi, an online retailer, sells plush toys and books based on Hindu culture and usually sees two sales bumps in the fourth quarter — one in the lead up to Diwali and another around Christmas. Normally the company brings in more than $100,000 in sales in the month before Diwali, which fell on Nov. 12, but this year sales dropped into the five-figure range. That was partly because the retailer launched a product too early and then had to offer hefty discounts to spur sales — something retailers try to avoid with new merchandise. “That’s when we knew that we really were going to have a challenging holiday season,” said Avani Modi Sarkar, a founder of the company. As she wraps up the year and looks toward 2024, Ms. Sarkar is testing new digital marketing strategies, including sending personalized email newsletters to customers and closely monitoring discounts. “We’re just trying to close the gap for us and not end the year with as big of a gap as we would have,” she said. “I know what we’re capable of, and I’m trying to not only get to that level again, but surpass it.” One clear sign that shoppers are being more careful about how much they spend comes from discount retailers. In November, Burlington, an off-price retailer, and the parent company of Marshalls and T.J. Maxx said they saw comparable store sales increase 6 percent. The online retailer ThriftBooks said its sales were also up this holiday season, by more than 20 percent in November and more than 24 percent this month compared with a year ago, according to Ken Goldstein, the company’s chief executive. “This was unprecedented,” Mr. Goldstein said. “This is beyond belief in terms of the volume that we’re doing. Because we’re a value product, I think a lot of people are putting their dollars to work.”" MY COMMENT The above is "retail shopping". Online shopping was much stronger increasing by 6.3%. All in all these numbers are much better than what was being fear-mongered earlier in the year. AND.....we still basically have two more weeks of shopping left. We have this week and the week following New Year. In the end the numbers are going to be just fine when looked at in combination. I choose to put up the above article since some of the others that I saw were "choosing" to report this as a "negative event". BS......there is nothing wrong with these INCREASES over last year.
