The Long Term Investor

LOL.....I am smiling as I just saw this article. The headline says it all. This is more content from Powell appearing on TV on Sunday night. A lot of clicks were milked out of the initial headlines this morning about Powell.....so....on to the next one.

Powell warns more banks will likely close amid real estate weakness

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comm...t-some-banks-will-close-powell-161201936.html

MY COMMENT

This stuff has got to make you laugh. It is so STUPID.

As a long term investor.....I dont care if the markets is down for a day or two. I dont care if it is down for a month or if we have a correction. I know all of these events are simply part of a normal market process.

I do care a little bit if these normal events are driven by IDIOCY....but....only a little bit. I still think it is funny......and....a great commentary on society and where we are right now.....as well as human behavior.

 

In spite of all the above....there is STILL nothing going on in the markets this week.

The DRAMA will not last long....since it is manufactured out of thin air. SHAME on you.....Mr Powell. He knew exactly what he was doing with that TV appearance.......he was....TRASHING the markets for a few days.....INTENTIONALLY.

This simply shows the ridiculousness of the FED.....they somehow believe that TRASHING the markets is going to help with inflation or the economy. About all TRASHING the markets might do is skew some of the short term economic data for a micro-second in history.

All I can say is:

I remain fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I watched the GAME STOP movie on Netflix over the weekend......"DUMB MONEY". I enjoyed it. It was a well written movie and entertaining. Pretty good character development and funny......regardless of accuracy.

 

I will now.....ignore the IDIOCY.....and wait to see if we get a market come-back in the afternoon.

if we do see a bit of a positive move later today.....it will mostly be due to the UPWARD BIAS of the bull market and the inability of the speculative traders to pull it down. If we dont....so what.....I have better things to do today than obsess over short term market IDIOCY.

 

I had to look at my account. ALL of them....mine and the others that I manage...have a significant gain today....so far.

Crazy to say on a day like this.....but.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

The other event I find very interesting today and over the past few weeks is.....the EARNINGS BLACK OUT. Sure the media reports a few select companies each day. BUt the general trend....a total black out.

When this happens it is usually a good sign. YES....earnings have been doing JUST FINE....this reporting period.

"Key Metrics:

 Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2023 (with 46% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500
companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue
surprise.

 Earnings Growth: For Q4 2023, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 1.6%. If
1.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-straight quarter that the index has reported
earnings growth.

 Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for
Q4 2023 was 1.5%. Seven sectors are reporting higher earnings today compared to December 31 due to positive
EPS surprises.

 Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2024, 31 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 17 S&P 500
companies have issued positive EPS guidance

 Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.0. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average
(18.9) and above the 10-year average (17.6)"

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_020224.pdf

I actually like the negative guidance......game playing by company management.

 

I love it.....here.....is what the headline should have been today. Accurate......reality based.....and what investors should focus on. At least....if your time horizan is more than a few weeks.

Fed's Powell says the 'time is coming' to cut interest rates

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-powell-says-time-is-coming-cut-interest-rates

A sample of what Journalism....."used"....to look like:

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank remains on track to cut interest rates later this year so long as inflation continues to fall." .....

"The Fed chief reiterated that message on Sunday, saying that the "time is coming" to trim rates, but "it's not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks."

Most investors now expect the Fed to begin rate cuts in May or June."

MY COMMENT

I hear the talking heads.....right now.....on CNBC speculating about when rate cuts will happen. "Investors are trying to fugure out when rate cuts will begin.........blah, blah, blah"

REALLY.....most people I know dont even care about rate cuts. I am happy with the end of rate hikes.

 

I thumbed my nose at the market averages today. I had a big FAT gain. I had four of seven stocks UP today.......the down holdings.....HD, AMZN, and MSFT. I also beat the SP500 today by.......1.89%.

 

NO doubt....anyone that owns NVDA or PLTR......had a pretty good day today. As to the rest of the markets....a big thank you to Powell, 60 Minutes, and the rest of the FED.

We have one very bright spot in the economy right now....that applies to many...."regular people" via 401K accounts.....the stock markets. Of course that is constantly their focus as they try to continuously TRASH the markets.

 

Poor TSLA.

Elon Musk in under a relentless attack from all sides of the media. Today I heard more constant speculation and talk about his......supposed.....drug use.

Of course this is all part of an orchestrated HATE campaign that started when he began to tweet out comments that were......GASP.....conservative. He will NEVER get positive coverage again.

 

This little article about....obsessive negative thinking.....applies to investing as well as everyday life. Click on it if you wish.

Are you catastrophizing? Here’s how to stop assuming the worst.
Nine experts weigh in on curbing and diffusing your overly negative thoughts.

https://www.vox.com/even-better/24055564/catastrophizing-stop-assuming-the-worst-negative-thoughts

MY COMMENT

What I find very interesting in all the advice on how to deal with this from the.....nine...."experts" is the total LACK OF MENTION of what is probably the most common cause......SOCIAL MEDIA and the MEDIA.

I will give my prescription as the TENTH "expert"....get the F#CK off social media.....and do not listen to or read or watch the F#CKING media. Problem solved.

 

OK.....I will take it. Another BIG all time high for my account today. AND....even though they are basically meaningless...I like how the futures are looking.

We need to move forward tomorrow....from the FED lunacy.