There was a gentleman in here that was asking about DIS a few months ago, I believe at the time it was at around 85/share. I predicted that it would go up by 20% within a few months to a year. Looks like it is right around that mark today. I really should be doing this more often lol
I have seen the story about spiking credit card delinquencies floating around lately. A Clear-Eyed Look at Consumer Credit Calculated properly, credit card delinquencies didn’t spike. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ommentary/a-cleareyed-look-at-consumer-credit (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Every bull market has its own wall of worry, usually a mix of long-running and newfound fears. One of this bull market’s bricks? Consumer debt. Yes, consumer spending is strong, but some worry inflation means that strength is a mirage of tapped savings and credit card irresponsibility, with a side of increasingly stressed auto loans. Such worries hit headlines anew with the New York Fed’s new quarterly snapshot of household debt—and a disproportionate reaction to upticks in credit card debt and delinquencies that included some rather fuzzy math. We see this as a bullish false fear, and now we will show you why. Step one: Looking at the latest data in historical context. Exhibit 1 does this, plotting credit card and auto loan serious delinquency rates (aka 90+ days delinquent) since 2003—the current origin of the report’s current methodology. Yes, both rose in Q4 2023. Yet both are below their prior highs. Note, too, that those highs came in the aftermath of the 2007 – 2009 recession—they were legacies of prior economic trouble, not the cause of new problems. There was no consumer debt crisis in the early 2010s. Rather, delinquencies fell gradually as the economy grew, lifting incomes and helping household finances improve. To us, this seems like the likeliest scenario now, given healthy GDP and wage growth. Exhibit 1: Serious Delinquency Rates Source: New York Fed, as of 2/6/2024. Percent of loan balances 90+ days delinquent, Q1 2003 – Q4 2023. Last time we covered this topic, we showed debt balances relative to household assets. It will be a few weeks before we can do this with Q4 data since the Fed publishes the denominator at quite a lag. So, stay tuned. But given the uptick in debt balances wasn’t huge, we doubt the picture will have changed much. Headlines made a lot of credit card debt’s 4.6% q/q rise, but that rate is slower than Q3’s and rates seen during 2022. Ditto the 14.5% full-year increase, which was a mite slower than 2022’s 15.2% rise.[ii] As it happens, the year-over-year growth rate seems to have topped out at 17.2% in Q1 2023.[iii] It has slowed every quarter since, a fact even the more sanguine coverage of this report omitted. Yet the biggest culprit for the debt freakout seems to be math. The New York Fed publishes a table showing “flows into serious delinquency,” meaning the percentage of outstanding loan balances that became 90+ days delinquent in the quarter. The flow of credit card debt into serious delinquency increased from 4.01% in Q4 2022 to 6.36% in Q4 2023.[iv] We encountered multiple articles in high-profile publications calling this a 59% increase because 6.36 is 58.6% higher than 4.01.[v] That 59% rise would be the largest on record. But here is the trouble: That math is fuzzy, to put it generously. Taking a percent of a percent is a surefire way to overhype a move, and is no-no time, in our view. Seen more clearly, this is not a 59% increase. It is a 2.35 percentage point increase over the past year. As Exhibit 2 shows, once you use this, it is in fact not the largest increase on record—that came in Q2 2009 (Q3 2009 was also a shade higher). That happens to coincide with the end of the 2007 – 2009 recession. Conversely, consider: If you use percent-of-a-percent logic, credit card delinquencies fell by nearly -40% in 2011, a record. We don’t recall anyone writing about Americans’ solvency boom amid post-financial crisis gloom, though. Exhibit 2: How Not to Lie With Statistics Source: New York Fed, good and fuzzy math, as of 2/6/2024. But we guess all this does stocks a favor by feeding the fear that keeps expectations low. Stocks move on the gap between those expectations and reality over the foreseeable future, and a false fear built on dodgy calculations widens that gap. So while we may not like the reasons for this false fear’s existence, its sheer existence is a gift to stocks either way. It seems weird to say “enjoy,” but bull market fuel is bull market fuel, and that is what we think this is." MY COMMENT Yet another FALSE story line for clicks. But I do agree.....this is good news for the bull market. Another straw man issue that will be knocked down and/or will simply fade away. When these types of issues crash in flames....it makes the bull market look stronger. In the meantime it is nice to see the big old wall of worry intact and doing its job.
A mild open today....but I like it. Plenty of room to grow into the day. Stocks open little changed as S&P 500 hovers near 5,000 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks hovered near the flatline Thursday, with the S&P 500 on the brink of breaching the 5,000 milestone for the first time ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were little changed. Earnings remained top of mind for investors, with Disney surging more than 9% after the media giant beat quarterly earnings estimates and raised its guidance. Chipmaker and designer Arm jumped 32% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and providing an upbeat profit forecast. Yields rose Thursday with the 10-year Treasury note last at 4.15%. The move in yields pressured stocks despite a raft of stronger-than-expected earnings reports that have lifted investor confidence that a robust economy can continue driving corporate profits and growth. “We also see the potential for further gains in the event of a ‘Goldilocks’ economic outcome, in which US growth is stronger than expected and tame inflation allows the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively,” said UBS Global Wealth Management’s Solita Marcelli, calling the recent rally in stocks “well-supported.” So far this season, 77% of S&P 500 companies have topped earnings expectations, while about 68% have beaten sales forecasts, according to FactSet. These strong earnings, and a continued chug higher in 2023′s winning megacap technology stocks, have boosted the market in recent sessions. “The ‘Big 3’ forces that have been propelling the tape since Nov are still exerting upside pressure, including disinflation, the dovish monetary pivot, and resilient earnings,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note. The earnings season continues after the bell with reports from Expedia, Affirm Holdings and Take-Two Interactive." MY COMMENT YEP....a good week so far. Earnings continue to come in BIG and BEAT the expert expectations.....not really a hard thing to do. NO....ZERO.....NADA.....big issues going on right now.....simply normal market action.
OK.....I closed out my little PLTR MOMENTUM trade. I sold at 24.25. I am now going to sit on my.....104 FREE SHARES..... and get to know this stock. There is a lot of EXCITEMENT out there right now on this company....the issue is....is it hype or is it truth.
Now that I have closed out this little trade....I am sure the stock will skyrocket. You guys that hold shares can thank me later. At least I will benefit a little bit if that happens with my....little position. I have ZERO plans to add to this position. My goal was to clear 100-200 FREE SHARES. I hit the low end of my goal and decided to not be greedy. Starting about September of 2021.......until the recent earnings....the stock went steadily down.....till.....in May of this year it hit $7.41. going into the recent earnings it was at $16.35. I decided that it was NOT a time for.....no guts no glory. I simply did have a good enough education, history, and feel for this stock.....to continue on.
Well now that I ended my PLTR momentum trade....Roadtonowhere......will have to sell all his new (imaginary, I hope everyone knows he was joking) shares of PLTR. NO.....LORI.....dont do it....unless that is your plan regardless of my actions. I DO NOT want to encourage others to buy this stock......unless it is your own independent decision. Look at a chart of the stock....it is far from a sure thing. It is extremely erratic and has been as low as $6 fairly recently. Yes...I have done some momentum and stock split trades once in a rare while as reflected in this thread. It is RARE for me to do this. I dont know...there might be....5 or 6 times I have done this that are reflected in the 5+ years that this thread covers. MOST if not all of them ended up with a gain. I think one might have been a small loss. I am willing be be a....hunter/gatherer investor.....if I see a good opportunity. If I am rummaging through the woods and I see a pile of mushrooms or some berries......just siting there waiting to be picked up.....I will gather them. BUT....a very RARE EVENT for me.
I closed at $24.25....of course it is now at.....$24.64. BUMMER.....not really. AND....I guess I am going to have a little......short term.... gain to declare on my 2024 tax return.
NOW.....lets get to work on getting the SP500 positive today. NASDAQ is looking good for about mid day. EMMETT.......where are you?
At this moment I have a nice moderate gain today. I have two stocks down right now....AAPL and MSFT. NVDA is nicely over $700....but off its prior high of the day. time to go away and let the markets handle the heavy lifting.
A LOSS for me today.....SMALL....but still a loss. I had five of eight stocks up today.....but NVDA was down and it has outsize influence on my daily result since it has grown to 25% of my portfolio. I also had AMZN and AAPL down today. I lagged the SP500 by 0.25% today.
This....was the TECH or AI story of the day. Arm shares surge 48% after SoftBank-controlled chip designer issues strong forecast "Key Points Shares of chip designer Arm climbed 48% on Thursday. The company reported better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter, and issued an optimistic forecast. SoftBank still owns about 930 million shares of the chip designer, or roughly 90% of its outstanding stock, and founder Masayoshi Son is Arm’s chairman." https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/arm-shares-soar-after-reporting-strong-earnings-and-forecast.html MY COMMENT I thought this story would carry the markets higher today. But this stock is so thinly traded....it just did not seem to have much impact. Perhaps tomorrow.
HERE....is my Portfolio Model....after the end of my little trade this morning: STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia PALANTIR (104 shares, a minimal holding with no plans to add more) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund
WHAT......you mean I bought the wrong stock? No......it is the right one.......I should know how to spell that being a long time fan of......Lord Of The Rings.
I am already having a very good day. I have not looked yet but I know that I only have a couple of stocks that are down right now....HD and COST. The averages look pretty good today so far....also. GO.....GO....GO.
Here is the truth about another little issue that pops up once in a while. Quick Hit: The US Banking Sector in Two Charts Stocks aren’t overlooking regional banking developments. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...quick-hit-the-us-banking-sector-in-two-charts (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Editors’ Note: MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. The below are merely incidental to a broader theme we wish to highlight. Regional banking fears are stirring anew in the wake of some high-profile earnings disappointments that loosely tie to commercial real estate, fueling chatter that stocks face a new threat investors are blind to. Yet if you know where to look, it becomes clear stocks are already dealing with these issues and telling us they are isolated and company-specific, not market-wide. To see regional bank issues register in stock returns, you have to look in the places where they are most pronounced. That isn’t the S&P 500 or even its Financials sector. The latter includes some large regional banks, but the megabanks’ market cap dwarfs their influence on returns. Hence, you will get a better view from the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index’s Financials sector. Exhibit 1 presents these alongside S&P 500 Financials as a sort of control group. We started it at the beginning of 2023 so that you can see how it diverged from the more regional bank-heavy indexes during last spring’s regional banking crisis. Note this divergence has reappeared lately, with large Financials rising while the regional banks hit tough sledding. Exhibit 1: Regional Banks’ Tough Road Source: FactSet, as of 2/7/2024. KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index, S&P 500 Financials and S&P 600 Small Cap Financials total returns, 12/31/2022 – 2/6/2024. Indexed to 100 at 12/31/2022. Exhibit 2 gives you a more focused look at the last three months. There, you will see regional banks bouncing sharply from last year’s correction, then bouncing sideways before having a very tough time last week as markets grappled with Signature Bank absorber New York Community Bancorp’s (NYCB’s) big Q4 earnings miss and weak 2024 guidance. Yet the S&P 500 Financials sector held steady, sending a strong signal that one bank’s problems aren’t poison for the entire US banking realm. To us, it looks like bigger banks have basically looked at recent headlines with a pronounced yawn. Exhibit 2: Regional Banks’ Tough January in Focus Source: FactSet, as of 2/7/2024. KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index, S&P 500 Financials and S&P 600 Small Cap Financials total returns, 10/31/2023 – 2/6/2024. Indexed to 100 at 10/31/2023. This seems rational. We won’t get into NYCB’s idiosyncrasies in detail, but the tough results are a legacy of its absorbing Signature Bank. This, coupled with another recent merger, made NYCB big enough that it will soon face tougher capital requirements, putting some lower-quality commercial loans on its balance sheet in the spotlight and forcing it to build liquidity to meet the more stringent rules. It is a situation unique to one company that had an interesting couple of years, not a sign of trouble looming nationally. It is arguably more a ripple stemming from last spring’s events than something truly new. So no, markets aren’t whistling past the graveyard. They are assessing problems where those problems lurk and not extrapolating them further. This is normal, healthy market behavior. There are always struggling companies and pockets of weakness, even in good times. If markets were really complacent, then regional bank stocks would be looking through the last week’s news, too. Instead, they are discounting it, as we would expect, and showing the truly limited impact." MY COMMENT YAWN......
Fabulous Friday in the markets.....hopefully. S&P 500 tops 5,000 again, rises for a fifth week on encouraging inflation news https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose on Friday as the government said December’s inflation reading was even lower than first reported, and the S&P 500 broke above the 5,000 level, after briefly trading above the historic milestone on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 80 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%. For the week, the S&P is up 1%, while the blue-chip Dow and the Nasdaq Composite have gained 0.1% and 1.6%, respectively. A solid earnings season, easing inflation data and a resilient economy have powered the market rally into 2024, setting stocks up for a fifth consecutive week of gains. It’s also propelled the S&P above the 5,000 level after touching the milestone during Thursday’s session. The S&P 500 first crossed 4,000 in April 2021. “On the surface, there is no difference between 5,000 and 4,999, but these big round numbers do hold psychological significance for investors,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “As we’ve seen throughout history, those that are willing to hold during the rough times are usually rewarded in the end, this time was no different.” A revision lower in December’s consumer price index also helped sentiment after the government adjusted the figure to a 0.2% increase, down from a 0.3% increase first reported. Core inflation figures, excluding food and energy, were the same. Treasury yields briefly traded lower following the release of the revised figures. January’s CPI figures are due next week. Megacap technology stocks gained again on Friday, contributing to the S&P’s march above 5,000. Nvidia and Alphabet added about 1% each. Cloudflare skyrocketed 18% on strong earnings, and boosted the broader cloud sector in tandem. Elsewhere, PepsiCo fell 2% on mixed results, while Take-Two Interactive slumped 8% on a disappointing outlook. Pinterest dropped 9% after issuing a weaker-than-expected forecast and missing revenue estimates. A total of 337 S&P companies have reported quarterly earnings, with 77% of them surprising to the upside on earnings, according to FactSet." MY COMMENT A very good open today. Icing on the cake that the.....experts and government.....have now reduced the December CPI to a 0.2 increase. As usual virtually.....EVERY...... government report of data has to be revised.
WOW....the markets are really strengthening at this moment. This is reflected in the NASDAQ. The NVDA ROLL continues. Stock split....stock split....stock split.
