The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The SP500 and NASDAQ are not down by that much today. So...there is potential to turn green by the close. BUT....I would not bet the farm on this happening. It is a 50/50 crap shoot.

    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW....the markets might have turned the corner today. I just looked and now I have four stocks in the GREEN....COST, HD, AMZN, and NVDA. The SP500 is now in the green......and....the NASDAQ is moving toward the green.

    if things can hang on I will have a gain today to end the week.
     
  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    No market Monday.

    Looks like we have switched directions again today....
     
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  4. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    AAPL still in the red YTD. They just can't seem to get any traction.

    TSLA still pretty deep in the red YTD.

    Interesting to watch the ebb and flow of things over time.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEP.....Monday is Presidents day. Than we have the NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the close. I also have HD earnings next week on Tuesday after the close.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I ended today in the RED....BUMMER. At least the loss was small. I also got a BEAT on the SP500 today by.....0.16%).

    I had a single stock in the green today.....HD.

    A short week next week.
     
    #18866 WXYZ, Feb 16, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2024
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We ended up with a NEGATIVE week this week. It seems like the first one in a while.

    DOW year to date +2.42%
    DOW five days (-0.07%)

    SP500 year to date +5.54%
    SP500 five days (-0.48%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +6.95%
    NASDAQ five days (-1.43%)

    NASDAQ year to date +6.84%
    NASDAQ five days (-1.28%)

    RUSSELL year to date +1.12%
    RUSSELL five days +1.02%

    BUMMER......but the markets can not be up every week. I am still very pleased with my YTD gain which as of the close today for my entire account is +14.24%. At the end of last week I was at +15.53%. So a losing week for me as well as the averages.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT THREE DAY WEEKEND EVERYONE.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I must say....five out of six....is outstanding. I will take that all year long.

    "All three major indexes broke their five-week winning streaks to end the week in the negative. The S&P 500 ended the week lower by 0.42%, while the Dow slipped 0.11%. The Nasdaq tumbled 1.34%."

    Dow slides more than 100 points Friday, major averages end 5-week winning run: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
     
  10. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Pretty good week even with the 'breather'. My accounts hit an all time high and we have some big news next week with NVDA earnings on Wednesday. With the markets closed Monday we will have to resort to digging into the archives for Buffet and Munger teachings.

    W, Thanks for sharing some of the inner workings of how the family finances work. My family never had to worry about that but unless something goes horribly wrong my son will. Passing knowledge along with money down to the next generation is very important to me so it's always good to see some real life examples. Also the story about your sister should be very inspiring to alot of people. To work a normal run of the mill job and amass such a net worth is a testament to proper saving and investing techniques. All done without an expensive broker with fancy software! I know you have a pretty successful mix you invest in but it would be a cool mental exercise to see how much she would have if she didn't have you and just invested in the S&P500.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Wrong as usual. Just like most economic forecasts, earnings forecasts and everything else. The "experts" are simply.......egomaniac, publicity seeking,......IDIOTS.

    Putting the ‘Boom’ in Boomer Retirements
    One simple trick to fathoming retirees’ big economic contributions.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...entary/putting-the-boom-in-boomer-retirements

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Did you know we are 13 years into one of the greatest economic crises of our time? In 2011, the first Baby Boomers started turning 65, commencing the slow march of America’s largest generation from the workplace to lives of leisure and relaxation, which would allegedly knock consumer spending as this massive cohort stopped dressing and commuting for work and began pinching pennies while living on fixed incomes. For fun, I read an old Brookings Institution report from 1997, which purportedly documented Boomers’ grim financial future. Sooooo, how did that prediction work out? Not so hot, according to a City Journal essay, published last month, which pointed out that Boomers have a collective $78 trillion in assets.[ii] To which I say, assets schmassets—a lot of that is real estate, and a lot of people choose not to sell the family home. So please let me show you a perhaps better way to know that, far from being the economic drain predicted for decades, Boomers are kind of a, well, boom in their old age.

    You see, while I sit somewhere ‘twixt Gen X and Millennial, depending on the source defining these generations, it seems my television tastes run a bit, um, old. How do I know? When I do my morning workout, I tend to put on an old episode of the original Star Trek recorded off one of those cable channels specializing in retro shows, and the television commercials decidedly do not target me. I am an anomaly in a sea of people to whom William Shatner suddenly ages 55 years from show to commercial to hawk C-PAP machines. And people to whom companies are marketing next-generation hearing aids, subtitle transcription services for video chats, fancy walk-in tubs and a medicine cabinet full of pills to reduce the visible and invisible effects of aging.

    Boomer-targeted marketing isn’t limited to these cozy re-run channels. Nor are they all hokey I’ve fallen and I can’t get up low budget-type deals peddling niche products for $9.99. No, we are in the era of ads touting luxury dating services for the silver set. And high-net-worth retirement communities. And luxury cruise lines for seniors only, featuring well-dressed Boomers who clearly work out a lot, order expensive mixed drinks and clink glasses while looking toward the exotic travel destinations to which they are sailing.

    What this tells me: Boomers have a lot of money to burn and are a major consumer spending cohort. If they weren’t, then companies wouldn’t be creating new products and services aimed at them explicitly. In business, you always go where the money is, and businesses are increasingly flocking to the silver dollar, as it were. Exhibit 1 proves the point, highlighting the rising share of spending by folks 65-74 years old and 75+ versus 25-34 year olds.

    Exhibit 1: Older Folks’ Share of Spending Is Up

    [​IMG]
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as 1/11/2024.

    This isn’t a new concept. The Brits had it down decades ago, observing businesses that marketed to the “grey pound.” (There are other colors of pounds for other demographics, natch.) What is new is the high expense associated with all of it. Companies are increasingly clear that, far from being Social Security-reliant penny pinchers, Boomers are pretty spendthrift. Not all of them. But a lot of them, enough to make them worth targeting as a large, high-spending cohort.

    From this, we can glean two things. One, far from being a drain on consumer spending, Boomers are adding to it. Two, they are creating jobs, in a way, because they are inspiring new businesses—new businesses that hire people to create and sell products and services for them. Their spending is driving new investment, which means new opportunities for younger cohorts to take risks and build wealth.

    Which is pretty cool! And exactly the opposite of what all the straight-line math in the 1990s and 2000s said would happen. Demographic projections saw only risks, but real people in the real world correctly spotted opportunities and turned the alleged Boomer headwind into a big fat wealth-generating tailwind.

    Where else might we apply this same logic today? Welllll, how about all those projections of climate doom? The long arc of economic history shows society repeatedly adapts to challenges real and perceived, finding opportunities in the process. Same goes for the widely feared baby bust in the Western world. Even if populations do fall, which is hardly a given, you don’t think clever people will still find ways to innovate and grow through investment, technology and productivity gains?

    Adaptation happens, always. It also happens very slowly, unfolding over years and decades—almost invisibly. The world morphs around you in ways few consciously note, but which are plainly visible when you take the long view 10 or 20 or 30 years later.

    This adaptation is key to capitalism’s long-term vibrancy and growth’s persistence despite myriad challenges. But it isn’t a near-term stock market plus any more than the associated fears were market killers. All of this stuff, allegedly bad or secretly good, is too far flung and, if unconsciously, well-appreciated to have any meaningful power over returns in the here and now. Instead, it fades into the backdrop.

    Boomers’ retirements were known and mapped out decades in advance. Now headlines look at their $78 trillion and hype the huge wealth transfer that will allegedly occur as they pass those assets to their heirs, as if this will be some massive economic driver. Friends, I wouldn’t get any more excited over that than you were scared over Boomer retirements. Good or bad, long-term projections mean little and rarely come true. Whatever the retrospectives on Millennials’ supposedly big inheritances look like in 40 years, they will probably bear little resemblance to expectations today—and stocks will do what they do regardless."

    M
    Y COMMENT

    Absolutely typical. I totally agree with this simple lesson:

    "....real people in the real world correctly spotted opportunities and turned the alleged Boomer headwind into a big fat wealth-generating tailwind."


    "Real people in the real world"......equals......common sense. It is the ability to see the truth right in front of your face.


     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TireSmoke

    In our family....all the older generations....helping to educate, and get the new generation off to a good start goes back SIX GENERATIONS (counting back from my grandchildren) to my great grandfather. He was born in 1870.

    He grew up in extreme abuse and poverty. He was......kicked out by his abusive father at age 13 to make his own way in the world in an extremely isolated area of Appalachia, with just the cloths on his back.

    He managed to get an education with the help of charity and managed to become an attorney.....by studying and "reading the law" and working with a judge that mentored him..... in his community. He was a lifelong booster of education and the schools in his area. He had six kids.....4 boys and 2 girls.....and he put ALL of them through college.

    At that time it was extremely rare for anyone.....especially girls.....to go to college. Those kids became......a dentist, a doctor, an attorney, and three teachers. The love of education and concern for family that he instilled in our family is still alive today.

    The first grandchild in our direct family line started college this year and everyone is helping to get them through with no debt. EVERY generation gets.....THE TALK....when they start college. They are told they will get their college paid for....but....it is their absolute obligation and debt to do the same for their children when the time comes. It is a family CONTRACT.

    With my kids....being super savers, investors, with great work ethic, college degrees, and good family values.....the lessons learned six generations ago continue.
     
    #18872 WXYZ, Feb 17, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2024
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE. We will find out next week if NVIDIA is on track to become....."THE ONE".....in the business world. They have a long way to go to take over as the company with the largest market cap....but they are making good progress.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THE key market event next week.

    Nvidia Set For 'Most Important Earnings Report Of The Year

    https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-braces-for-q4-earnings-report/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "To say Nvidia's (NVDA) fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report next Wednesday will be closely watched would be an understatement. Nvidia stock investors are breathlessly waiting to see if the AI-chip maker can keep up its recent run of big beat-and-raise reports.

    "It could be the most important earnings in all tech year to date, and possibly the entire stock market," Jordan Klein, managing director for tech, media and telecom sector trading at Mizuho Securities, said in a client note. "Nvidia is not up 47% year to date to $1.8 trillion market cap because nobody cares, right?"

    The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company will release its fiscal Q4 results late Wednesday. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nvidia to earn an adjusted $4.59 a share, up 422% year over year, on sales of $20.37 billion, up 237%, in the quarter ended Jan. 28. That would be the company's third straight quarter of triple-digit percentage growth in sales and earnings.

    Investors will key in on Nvidia's guidance to see how long the spending boom for data center-based artificial intelligence will continue. Cloud service providers have been aggressively buying graphics processing units, or GPUs, to run generative AI applications.

    For its fiscal first quarter, analysts expect Nvidia to deliver earnings of $5 a share, up 359%, on sales of $22.12 billion, up 208%.

    Another Bull Joins The Stable

    Nvidia stock is up nearly 50% this year on the AI euphoria.

    Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah joined the party on Thursday, initiating coverage of Nvidia stock with a buy rating and 1,200 price target.

    On the stock market today, Nvidia stock dipped a fraction to close at 726.13.

    "We are at the front end of a 3-5 year GPU compute and Gen AI foundational build across hyperscale" service providers, Baruah said in a client note. "Our work suggests Nvidia's largest customers will be taking everything Nvidia can give them in 2024 and 2025."

    Nvidia Stock On 5 IBD Stock Lists

    BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya on Thursday reiterated his buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of 800.

    In a client note, Arya said he wouldn't be surprised to see Nvidia stock pull back after its earnings given "the recent parabolic run-up in the stock."

    "Any potential mismatch versus bullish expectations is likely supply (memory, packaging) rather than demand or competition related," Arya said.

    After Nvidia's fiscal Q4 earnings, the next possible catalyst for Nvidia stock will be the company's GTC conference for AI developers. GTC will be held March 18-21 in San Jose, Calif. At the show, Nvidia is likely to preview its next-generation B100 GPU platform.

    On Jan. 8, Nvidia stock broke out of a flat base at a buy point of 505.48, according to IBD MarketSmith charts. Nvidia stock has a best-possible IBD Composite Rating of 99.

    Further, Nvidia stock is on five IBD stock lists: IBD 50, Leaderboard, Big Cap 20, Sector Leaders and Tech Leaders. Nvidia also is one of the Magnificent Seven stocks."

    MY COMMENT

    As is the usual course....I expect the stock to be down after earnings for perhaps 2-4 days. The expectations are just TOO HIGH.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    At some point in the future....hopefully the far distant future....NVDA shareholders will face the ULTIMATE TEST...knowing when to sell.

    I faced that decision with PLTR not too long ago. I decided to sell out my short term momentum trade. In hindsight I think I made the right choice. The stock ended the week at a loss of (-3.82%) at a price of $24.44. Slightly above the price that I cashed in at.

    I ended up with over 100 FREE SHARES.....as a result of a week or two of holding as a short term momentum trade.

    I am feeling grateful.....that I sold when I did. if the shares go up from here I will participate with my free shares.....and.....i am now free of the risk of my trade.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to PLTR....I extremely......"like"...this little article. My view is that commercial business and customer acquisition is the FUTURE of this company. The government business is NOT the future for PLTR....although a good income base.

    Palantir Stock Surges From Artificial Intelligence Platform

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethki...ficial-intelligence-platform/?sh=21bbc0fa55fb

    MY COMMENT

    A good article if you are considering this stock. I am NOT adding additional shares at this time over my....FREE SHARES. I will need to see more as time goes by....in terms of company success and growth. It is too early for me to add this company as one of my......BIG CAP....holdings. Time will tell.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ONE COMMENT...I talk a lot in here about the stocks that I own.......simply because......"I"..... own them and am interested in them......NOT....because I am pushing anyone else to buy them.

    FEEL FREE to discuss the stocks and funds that YOU own in this thread. ANY content or discussion is welcome. HEY you lurkers.......come on.....put up a post or two. Join the party.
     
    #18877 WXYZ, Feb 17, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2024
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Earnings next week you say?? What possibly could it be??:hmm:

    Tuesday: Looks like Wal-Mart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and.....Tootsie Roll (TR) :lauging: Yes, the one you have all been waiting for.

    Wednesday: NVIDIA (NVDA)

    Friday: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B)

    Of course hundreds of others also throughout the week as well. Surely, Tootsie Roll (TR) will allow some of these "other" companies a brief moment of the limelight.
     
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  19. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Why do you celebrate president day? I know it is a holiday, you celebrate George Washington xday etc. In Europe I dont recall anything similar.
    Anyway I wish you all a great holiday!!
     
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  20. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    That’s it in a nutshell…rg. It honors the first US President, GW. All the banks and government offices will be closed for business. Regular stores and such are open for business though. A lot of schools are usually out as well.
     
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