Demand for their chips for AI was something I did not expect to be this high! Looks like it took a lot of us by surprise!
Nvidia’s Plans To Crush Competition – B100, “X100”, H200, 224G SerDes, OCS, CPO, PCIe 7.0, HBM3E https://www.semianalysis.com/p/nvidias-plans-to-crush-competition NVDA is not messing around, waiting for everyone to catch up that is for sure!
Kicking myself for selling what I did, when I did. Have to remember that the strategy was the correct one...
Glad I sold half position last friday to somehow trim my anguish...when you have one position getting bigger and bigger every week, better trim it, even a slice or two. I think...
Better to sell the whole damn thing. Listen to what Bloomstran has to say about Nivida. [00:59:33] Chris Bloomstran: But NVIDIA reminds me today so much of Microsoft. Low 23 years ago. You know, here you are with a transformational AI on a business that has been a very good business with their graphics chips, but on what’s trailing 25 billion in sales, that’s clearly gonna grow Very quickly over the next few years, you had a market cap that hit $1.2 trillion. [00:59:58] Chris Bloomstran: Now we’ve got a short position on this thing, but you go through the same math on trailing 25 billion in revenues. If you grow those revenues at 20% a year, let’s say. You wind up. You wind up in a decade at 400 billion in revenues, and then you take today’s 20% profit margin and you could look at it growing to 30%. [01:00:18] Chris Bloomstran: Look at it, growing to 40%, and in any of those scenarios, if you grow the top line at 20, which is very difficult to do for any business for a sustained period of time and grow the margins to a very healthy level, far above what a semiconductor business. is normally gonna earn it. But if you allow them a 30 or 40 percent margin and then you apply a 30 or a 40 multiple to earnings, only then can you make a 10 plus percent return. [01:00:44] Chris Bloomstran: I mean, you have to grow the margin to 40%, double it from where it is today. Now there are Wall Street analysts that in the next five years, think the profit margins are gonna get 50 percent and that the business is going to grow by 40 percent a year, maybe it does. But when you start talking about 10 and 15 year periods of time. [01:00:59] Chris Bloomstran: And you start talking about paying a trillion two for a business that’s doing 25 billion in sales on a 20 percent profit margin, even if you get this immediate surge in top line growth and an immediate surge in profitability, you have to presume a lack of competition. I mean, AMD, there are other players In the chip world, there’s so much that can go wrong, but only in the case where everything goes right, when you extrapolate everything out, can you get to a mid to high single digit return. [01:01:29] Chris Bloomstran: So I would say Nvidia, you’d pay Nvidia at today’s price, I’d say the same thing that I did. about Microsoft. Today’s investor in NVIDIA will lose money over the next 15 years.
Thinking I will sell off a third of my remaining position. There are many good reasons to sell, but I found myself waiting for NVDA earnings and following it closely once it was released. That's not investing; that's gambling.
If one is certain of that outcome, why not stay in to capitalize off it? Unless there is another stock that will outperform with those profit taking funds, I only see unrealized profit.
I'm guessing he's talking more to traders or shorter-term investors and not the people who just buy and hold for years and years in companies they believe in.
