This is the BULL MARKET in action. Nasdaq surges more than 1% to take out 2021 record, S&P 500 closes above 5100 for the first time https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Nasdaq Composite rose to an all-time high Friday, surpassing its 2021 record, as investors bet that megacap technology stocks were the best way to play slowing inflation and a coming artificial intelligence boom. The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.14% to 16,274.94, notching a new high of 16,302.24 during the session. A day earlier, the index closed at its first record since November 2021. The S&P 500 added 0.80% to 5,137.08 for its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 90.99 points, or 0.23%, to 39,087.38. Chipmaking giant Nvidia, which has led the tech rally by surging more than 260% over the last 12 months, was up another 4% Friday. Meta also jumped more than 2% for the day. On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq added 1.74%, while the S&P 500, which also popped to a record close on Thursday, advanced 0.95%. Both indexes notched their seventh positive week over the last eight. The 30-stock Dow is the laggard, down 0.11%. The Nasdaq was the last of the major U.S. stock benchmarks to reach a record close this year, when it achieved the milestone Thursday. Enthusiasm over AI has lifted mega-cap tech stocks – and the broader market – through 2023 and into this year. Slowing inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s ensuing pivot toward rate cuts forecasted for later in 2024, have also contributed to the Nasdaq’s recovery from a difficult 2022. “We’re seeing this big run up in tech because there’s a massive emphasis on what it might be — there’s so much emphasis on AI and this big sort-of redux of the late 90s,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “People [now] just completely disregard the rest of the market. And that’s generally does not turn out well,” Cox added. Stocks gained even as troubled regional bank New York Community Bancorp declined 25.9% after the lender announced a leadership change and disclosed issues with its internal controls. The bank is already down more than 65% in 2024, with some investors concerned it is a sign of a wider real estate shakeout ahead." MY COMMENT YES....it is a MASSIVE emphasis on what......"might be". At least that is forward looking and rational. Is it really like the DOT-COM boom of the 1990's? Well in terms of media.....sure. Than and now the media is insanely out of control. But.....back in the 1990's....much of the crazy euphoria was unjustified....huge valuations on companies that were nothing more than a web address. I wonder how many of the people making these comparisons were even age 25 or above back than? I suspect many of them were not and have no real first hand memory of that time span. BUT....one thing is clear.....If or when we do see a DROP from the collapse of the AI mania....it will pull the good companies down with the bad. SO.....be safe out there....dont get too crazy or carried away.
I don’t know man, call me old fashioned, but I do subscribe to buying low(er), probably just the way I was brought up. As far as no guarantees to how a company will perform, of course not, but you know there’s no guarantee as to how any of them will work. It’s all a probability “game” with companies/stocks. And so, yeah, Apple and Elon are still the biggest and richest and not by chance. They proved their worth. Heck, a top FIVE s&p company not performing anymore? Those are some shitty odds to bet against so I’ll just stick the course. The probability of that company not working anymore are extremely slim, the probability of them making AVERAGE returns are HIGH and the only “risk” here is betting on them EXPLODING in value. Just a quick reminder at where Meta Amazon and Netflix were about a year ago - that’s right - In the doghouse. Beyond the doghouse. BTDH They didn’t make these EXTREME gains because they created something revolutionary like NVDA, no no no, they made it because they are LEADERS in their field. I many not like any of these companies nor care for their politics, but as we know, the probability of them continuing to lead is very high. And so, history will continue to repeat itself again and again and again and we will always be humans, fearing the worst against all odds.
YEP.....agree Zukodany. Being a businessman you understand and have the appropriate long term focus. Others being sucked in by the exciting daily gains.....need to evaluate their REAL risk tolerance and make sure they are not being carried away by emotion. A BASIC QUESTION.......are you REALLY playing with long term money.....money that is stock market money for at least FIVE YEARS?
I was banking at WFC during the "fake account" scandal. But I was not an owner.......I dont do banks as an investor. A horrible record of fraud and anti-consumer behavior.....I hope WFC is about to turn the corner. Wells Fargo slowly starts to shed the problems of its past https://finance.yahoo.com/news/well...-shed-the-problems-of-its-past-150033098.html
Yes of course, personally I’m not ALL IN with my saving capital, so I have to be super cautious with how much money I allocate to my accounts since a great deal of my business relies on all of my investments performing well as a whole. So if I allocated too much capital into stocks, knowing I may need it at some point in the future to say, rehab a property like the one we’re developing here in Ohio, I may end up needing to sell at a time where I may not benefit from it from a portfolio perspective. So unfortunately I do have to have some cash set aside for our real estate enterprise. But it’s just about enough for me to make serious gains on a third or so of our savings and learn how to deal with stock on an emotional level and gain experience. For now. I’m not kidding myself tho, I know that at some point one of two things will happen - I will either get tired of the real estate/music business hussle and liquidate one property and dump all of that money into stocks, or, our ohio business will prove to be performing as well as I expect it to, at which point I may seek a loan to go big with it. As in nationally. The next few years will tell the story. But I can’t stress this enough - investing in stocks help you a great deal with gaining confidence in your financial abilities, decision making, and sharpening your business skills. It’s what I EARN the most from owning a portfolio as I think anything else in life - it’s the experience.
Something funny happened to me today. While I was at the Pickleball courts, a financial guy approached me and asked little ol me about decision making with his investments. Geez, I almost tore his ear drum off yelling at him wtf are u asking me about YOUR finances, I should be the one asking YOU for advice! He was telling me that he has an adequate amount of money with a banking stock, which he practically got for free when working there some 25 years ago, and that while the dividend is good he thinks he could liquidate that position and get into NVDA right now. I advised him against it since it’s basically working well for him and averaged approximately 10% annually since the day he received it factoring the div yield and the bank is doing well. But of course it was just my opinion Plus he’s in his 60s so I don’t know if I would make a progressive decision like that in a later stage of my life. Funny how people USED to know me as a music/comic book guy. Now I’m some sort of a financial adviser. I don’t wanna grow old anymore
Just refer him to this thread....Zukodany. This is a definite reflection of all the attention that NVDA is getting in the media now. Sounds like you gave him some sound advice. Even if I thought differently........there is no way I would tell anyone to liquidate a longstanding position and put it all into NVDA. I would not want to be responsible.....for a non-family member. A lot of people got taken by surprise on NVDA and are now trying to understand AI and the company that everyone is talking about. They are playing catch-up. Personally I think NVDA has at least five years left in their EPIC initial run. After that they will be one of the top five BIG CAP TECH COMPANIES in the world and with good management will continue as a top company. The initial growth will taper off......but taper off is a very relative term. With good management and a clear focus on their business....they will continue as a MONSTER company for a long time....just like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, have done.
The week to come: February jobs report and Powell's semi-annual testimony: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/febr...stimony-what-to-know-this-week-130035524.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The stock market keeps hitting new record highs. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) both ended the week at their highest levels ever. The S&P 500 has now risen for 16 of the last 18 weeks for the first time since 1971, according to research from Deutsche Bank. In the week ahead, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill and the February jobs report will put the stock market's roaring rally to the test. Updates on economic activity in the services sector and job openings are also on the schedule. With most of the S&P 500 done reporting earnings, Target (TGT), Costco (COST), and Kroger (KR) are three of the largest consumer-facing brands reporting corporate results in the coming week. Fed fodder Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate beginning on Wednesday. Investors will listen closely for Powell's updates on the overall state of the US economy, the fight against inflation, and when the central bank may begin cutting interest rates. Entering the week, Bloomberg data shows markets are pricing for the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year beginning in June as inflation's decline has slowed. This falls in line with recent commentary fromChair Powell and recent projections from the Fed itself. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest policy decision and summary of economic projections on March 20. The state of the labor market With the inflation story recently hitting a snag as the Fed's preferred gauge saw its largest monthly increase in a year, Wall Street consensus now expects the central bank to be patient in cutting interest rates. Economists say a key to this policy decision going smoothly, and the economy avoiding recession, will be the labor market remaining resilient. New jobs data slated for the week ahead includes updates on wages and job openings. The headliner will be the February jobs report set for release on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report is expected to show that 190,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month, with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 3.7%, according to data from Bloomberg. In January, the US economy shocked Wall Street with 353,000 job additions while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for the third straight month. Earnings update Earnings season is just about over. With 97% of the S&P 500 finished reporting earnings for the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 is projected to have earnings growth of 4% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year prior, per new FactSet data. This marks the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the benchmark index. And, notably, the outlook for earnings growth in the current quarter isn't deteriorating at its normal pace. FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters noted that analysts usually reduce earnings estimates in the first two months of a quarter. During the past 20 years, earnings have typically been revised down by an average of 2.9%. For the current quarter, those earnings estimates have been revised down by just 2.2%. History shows stocks have more room to run One of the top calls on Wall Street entering 2024 was a choppy first few months of trading before a late-year rally. Many expected that uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and election fears would grip investors. That didn't happen. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their best February since 2015 amid several blowout earnings reports from Big Tech companies. Those improved earnings outlooks have prompted several Wall Street strategists to boost their year-end targets for the S&P 500. History says stocks continuing to chug higher is the most likely outcome. Research from Carson Group's Ryan Detrick shows that the S&P 500 has started the year positive in January and February 28 times since 1950. The benchmark average was positive over the next 12 months in 26 of those instances. On average, when the first two months have been positive, the S&P 500 has delivered a return of 19.9% for the year. While Detrick noted that this isn't an exact projection for a nearly 20% return this year, if the S&P 500 did rise by the average amount, it would end 2024 at 5,719." MY COMMENT NOW....with nothing else to try to talk about....the media is grasping at straws...with the economic data. BUT.....does anyone really care about this government data....that is basically meaningless to the markets? The stock markets are NOT the economy or based on the economic data. So much for the MASSIVE number of so called "experts" all jumping on the same bandwagon....and claiming that the first half of this year would be poor....and...the second half would improve and do well. As usual they were.....wrong, wrong, wrong........as the first half of the year is starting out with a BIG BOOM for the markets. Of course.....they were also WRONG as usual about earnings. Actually....when are those "experts" ever right? Not a real brilliant call to say......yes....stocks have more room to run.
To continue the above......I remember in the day trading era of the 1990's...all the crazy mania. I knew things were getting a little crazy when the plumber doing some work at my business building was telling me about how he and his wife were day-trading extremely high risk little...."penny".... tech stocks. At that time everyone thought they were going to retire as a day-trader. At the same time they would totally MOCK people like me that were long term investors. They would call it.....DERISIVELY....buy and hold investing. BUT....guess what strategy won out in the end....as usual?
We are having a very good year so far with around a 47% return. I sold a couple shares in January to add to money I had saved to buy a family 4 door car outright. I am also doing mental exercises about how and when I would like to pay off the house we moved into a year ago. Not bad problems to have but it is tough tying up money that is making me money into somethings that really doesn't. With that said my house, based upon the two houses that sold within the last year in my little development is probably worth 15-20% more than we paid for it. I like the house but not enough land and garage space for me. The current goal is to get a property that I can build on and consolidate my life and car hobby. We shall see. For me family comes first so that adds some complications. I don't recommend my portfolio to anyone. I have steered people towards this thread(mainly new hires and younger individuals just starting out into the great world of investments). I am sad to say this sit and wait, and wait, and sit, and doing nothing is a dinosaur method that's for the birds! How is anyone supposed to get rich quick like that!!!! I have learned that everyone wants the results that I have had without any of the sacrifice. Investing money that others would have used to buy cars, watches, designer items, flashy vacations.... Holding through large market pullbacks... working two jobs to cover my living expenses while freeing up money to invest. When someone asks about my investing or spending or if I really should have bought this instead of doing that I just say "I asked my accountant and he said it was alright", and I leave it at that. I have a very strong and long lasting relationship with my accountant. I feel that is important. We even sleep together, eat together and shower together.
I think I have identified a trend....in the primary headlines today. Wall Street is increasingly worried about inflation's resurgence https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...ed-about-inflations-resurgence-090036017.html Stock rally faces next tests: Jobs report and Powell testimony https://finance.yahoo.com/news/febr...stimony-what-to-know-this-week-130035524.html Should stocks beware the Ides of March coming off Feb. rally MY COMMENT I have no idea why all the negativity. Well I actually do.....the negative, the scary, the sensational....sells "clicks" and makes more money. Contrary to the above.......most of the FED news......most of the economic data good or bad.....and....earnings....have ALL been, for the most part, very good news for stocks and the bull market. I believe my own eyes and my own feelings.......I dont accept any of the above as having any relevance....at all...for the long term markets.
A mildly down open today.....I dont expect it to hold. I do expect the SP500 and NASDAQ to soon turn green and we will go from there into the day. BUT what do I know about the short term....nothing. So do I care if I am right....no. So....the day will simply muddle along and do what it does.
MORE good news for stocks. Stocks and the Fed’s Shrinking Balance Sheet Markets seem to be quietly proving “quantitative tightening” isn’t bearish. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...y/stocks-and-the-feds-shrinking-balance-sheet (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "$7.6 trillion. At that size, the Fed’s balance sheet isn’t exactly small. But it is smaller, having fallen -$1.4 trillion since peaking in April 2022. This process, known as quantitative tightening (QT), is the reverse of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) bond buying. The Fed lets assets it amassed (mainly Treasurys) mature, shrinking its balance sheet. As the “tightening” in the name implies, many believe QT is, like rate hikes, restrictive monetary policy—and, like rate hikes, many say it is bearish. But recent history suggests otherwise. America’s forays into QE started in November 2008. With short-term rates already cut to zero by then to combat the financial crisis, the Fed launched a program aimed at stimulating credit creation by lowering long-term interest rates. To do this, it hoovered up long-term Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. Buying bonds en masse boosts their prices, which move opposite their yields. And lower yields, the thinking goes, encourage borrowing. They also allegedly push investors into potentially higher-returning-though-riskier assets like stocks. While this first QE iteration ended in the late 2010s—with QT commencing in 2018—the Fed fired QE back up in March 2020, roughly doubling its balance sheet again in two years. But after inflation jumped in late 2021 and early 2022, the Fed did a sharp 180, starting a cycle of rate hikes—and embarking on QT once more. Officials first hinted at this in minutes released in April 2022. They officially followed through that June. Many warned QT would cause markets to crater. This would only add pressure to things like war, sanctions, ongoing inflation, supply chain issues and soaring energy prices months into what turned out to be 2022’s shallow bear market. As Exhibit 1 shows, though, stocks troughed in October 2022 while the Fed’s balance sheet kept shrinking and—after a brief (regional bank-run-related) jump last March—has steadily declined since. This resembles QT’s last 2018 – 2019 go ’round. At that time, pundits also assumed a QT-led stock derailment would ensue. And Q4 2018 did see a large correction. But the correction started well after QT began—and stocks had resumed rising well before the Fed’s balance-sheet shrinking stopped. So although a significant pullback occurred during that round of QT, it seems like a coincidence to us—correlation without causation. Exhibit 1: QT Doesn’t Deter Stocks Source: FactSet, as of 2/29/2024. This brings us to the underlying reason why QT has failed to tank stocks: It presumes low rates are needed for them to rise—but that isn’t so. In the high-and-rising rate 1970s, history shows no identifiable relationship between long rates and stocks. Rates rose three percentage points between October 1982 and June 1984—early in the 1982 – 1987 bull market, among other examples.[ii] So it shouldn’t shock that stocks have hit record levels lately while the fed funds rate stands at more than two-decade highs and 10-year Treasury yields hover at levels last seen 17 years ago. Today, people still talk about QT as though it is an issue, speculating its end, like rate hikes, is uber bullish. But they gloss over the part where QT was never bearish to begin with—echoing rate hikes. In any event, it may be the Fed doesn’t unwind every asset purchased and that QT’s end will come soon. But speculation over this is needless. Markets already showed you QT fear is false." MY COMMENT EVERYONE.....loves fear. We love scary movies, we love scary stories, we love scary news headlines. BUT....when it comes to the markets.....it is mostly always just....BS. It is fear-mongering. Traders love it....they make more in volatile up and down day to day markets. AI TRADING PROGRAMS.....love scary headlines and drama. Long term investors just accept the short term reality of constant drama.....YAWN......and move on.
This is ALL SPECULATION....but fun to consider. Apple buying Rivian? Nissan with Fisker? Tesla rivals’ woes spark speculation as EV growth slows https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-buying-rivian-nissan-fisker-201726630.html MY COMMENT I really dont care since I no longer own TSLA and I dont do auto companies in general. BUT...if all this happened it would be a big shake-up. I am NOT a fan of APPLE doing this as a shareholder.....they have enough current issues and need to focus on their existing businesses. There is no reason for them to go down this rabbit hole.
WELL....lets see if the Supreme Court ruling that just came out......9 to 0.....in favor of Trump has any impact on the markets. i dont see much of anything yet.
As a user of a MacBook Air.......these are great products. I like the fact that APPLE is using their own chips. I also like how these basic models are priced....very good value for the money. Apple announces new MacBook Air laptops with its latest M3 chip https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/apple-announces-new-macbook-airs-with-its-latest-m3-chip.html "Apple said its new MacBook Air laptops offer sharper 1080p webcams, support for faster Wi-Fi networks and up to 18 hours of battery life. The design remains the same as earlier models. The new M3 chip allows users to add up to two external displays, an improvement from a single screen supported by earlier chips. Apple’s announcement showed it’s stepping up its marketing around artificial intelligence. The 13-inch MacBook Air starts at $1,099, while the 15-inch starts at $1,299." MY COMMENT I assume it is in response to this announcement.....I see Best Buy has the basic 13.3 inch model (I assume it is the old model) on sale for $749. That is a SUPER DEAL.....for a great little laptop.
A MIXED day so far in my account......but....with NVDA up right now by $28....I am definately in the green. I have three stocks UP at the moment....AMZN, COST, and NVDA. I have five stocks down. COSTCO will report earnings this week.....on Thursday.
NOTHING much going on in the big averages today so far. They are having trouble waking up from their weekend sleep. NOT much happening this week for the markets. So perhaps it will be a good week for stocks fundamentals to have some sway on the market results........wouldn't that be nice.
An EPIC start to the year. I am so glad that I simply sit in the markets....fully invested all the time. You can NEVER anticipate when explosive gains will happen. A Start to Remember for the Markets https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-start-to-remember-for-the-markets (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In my last blog, I talked about how strong Januarys historically tend to lead to strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. But I also noted there could be a bit of volatility in February. To my surprise, this turned out to be one of the better Februarys the S&P 500 has ever had, finishing the month up 5.17 percent. While I may seem like a broken record with my consistently optimistic historical analyses, please know my perspectives are data-driven. Should the data suggest a shift toward a less favorable outlook? My viewpoints will evolve accordingly. 2024 Coming in Hot With a strong February now behind us, the S&P 500 is up 6.84 percent through the first two months of 2024. This marks the 20th time since 1957 when the S&P 500 was up more than 5 percent through the first two months of the year. Of those prior 19 occurrences, 17 generated positive returns over the final 10 months of the year and 12 saw double-digit returns to finish off the year. Source: Data from Tradingview. The table reflects index price returns excluding dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Strong February Returns Since 1957, including February 2024, we now have 68 Februarys under the belt. Including this month, only 36 (52.94 percent) of those have had a positive return. Of those 35 other years that saw February post a positive return, more than 80 percent saw a positive return over the next 10 months into year-end. Source: Data from Tradingview. The table reflects index price returns excluding dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Even more impressive, since 1957, this was only the seventh year where the S&P 500 posted a return greater than 5 percent during February and only the fifth year where the S&P 500 is up more than 5 percent through the first two months of the year and posted a February return greater than 5 percent. The average 12-month return of those other four years? 19.47 percent. Source: Data from Tradingview. The table reflects index price returns excluding dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historic Run Since October The S&P 500 might be off to a hot start in 2024, but the run it has had over the past four months is a historic one. With February coming to an end, the S&P 500 is up 21.5 percent since its October 2023 close price. Since 1957, the index has returned more than 20 percent over a four-month timeframe only 14 other times, with the last coming in the summer of 2020. Twelve of those other 14 occurrences saw a double-digit return over the next 12 months, with the worst return being a positive 1.16 percent return. Source: Data from Tradingview. The table reflects index price returns excluding dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Long-Term Matters I usually mention how, in the short term, volatility could exist. But the more I think about it, does it matter? The long-term conclusions from all the data and research I have done point to higher prices. When it comes to the markets, that is what matters. Of course (and as always), historical price returns are far from a guarantee of future price returns." MY COMMENT The above data looks good to me....but.....past returns and past data is no guarantee of the future. BUT.....at the moment everything is lined up nicely for another good year. Of course....beware the ugly black swan. We also have a lot of election turmoil ahead of us this year. SO....enjoy the current gains and the booming market....but exercise caution. Beware emotion and the temptation to put short term money into the markets. Be rational, clinical, and realistic.
At this moment...having just checked my account........NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, COST.....are GREEN. The rest of my stocks....AAPL, GOOGL, HD, and little PLTR are RED. I hate to be a cheerleader for NVDA....since there is a lot of over the top comment on the stock lately....but today at this moment....UP by $30.25.....or.....3.68%. We are obviously seeing people piling into the stock....in panic that they are going to miss out. Fortunately this is an amazing company with great management and products that give them a license to mint money. They control about 95% of the AI chip market. I am NOT a fan of people blindly buying the stock like maniacs. These emotional buyers will bail out at the slightest little blip and have crazy expectations. BUT.....as I have said many times....the stock still reminds me of the glory days of MSFT and the huge gains they made back in the early 1990's. So in spite of the crazy action.....I will RIDE THE WAVE.....that is now TOWERING above me on my little board.
